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JT2 -> RE: 2024 Draft (1/26/2024 11:33:27 PM)
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ORIGINAL: David Levine
Nick Miller’s Database on the Top Quarterbacks in the 2024 Draft Class
A couple days ago, Nick Miller from Climbing The Pocket created a very insightful spreadsheet featuring some advanced statistics for each of the top six quarterbacks that I just mentioned. The database contains several different categories including broad data, 3rd and 7+, 3rd and 4th down accuracy, passing depth of target + PFF grades, accuracy on 10-19 air yards, on target percentage, and quarterback scrambling effectiveness.
There are a lot of different takeaways that one can come away with here, however I will say that I personally thought J.J. McCarthy’s advanced stats looked surprisingly good compared to some other prospects who are widely considered to be better than him. I’ve seen some people on Twitter/X say that J.J. McCarthy is someone who won’t be drafted until later in the first round. I wouldn’t be surprised if McCarthy is a top 15 pick. Especially with teams like Atlanta, Minnesota, Las Vegas, and Denver all needing quarterbacks.
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J.J. McCarthy's advanced stats look very good here. On 3rd and 7+ McCarthy ranks:
#1 in 1st down/att %
#1 in NFL PR
#2 in comp %
#2 in yard/attempt
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Interesting #'s.....the ones I can understand that stand out for me is how accurate McCarthy is when moving/scrambling. I expected he would be significantly behind the others in total attempts but he's not. Nix is most accurate overall but that may reflect their offense, which depended on short passes. Nix does not appear to be as mobile as McCarthy.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19OPA99nqAenfDUX3NzsyEekbP9EBYUGEBtQqGamflyo/edit#gid=0
https://www.dailynorseman.com/2024/1/26/24049569/nick-millers-database-on-the-top-quarterbacks-in-the-2024-draft-class
I've been beating the McCarthy drum for a minute. In addition to the above numbers, he had the best passer rating in the country from outside the pocket. His progression from last season to this has been noteworthy. He can make all the throws, his mechanics are top-notch and he's an above average athlete. He's coachable and disciplined. He's poised and can read a defense. Harbaugh mentioned earlier in the season that he would routinely check out of a pass play and most times that he did, the play resulted in a big run gain. He played to win, and succeeded. The fact that he didn't throw 30 times a game doesn't mean he can't, yet some people hold on to that as the reason he's inferior to the flashy, sling it cats that didn't win a National Championship. We would be lucky to land him.
I said it before, and I promise not to keep saying it (after this time) but I would not at all be surprised if he ends up being the best NFL QB in this draft. I hope we have enough interest that we properly interview/vet him. If he's a full participant in the combine, he's going to shoot up the draft boards.
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