RE: 2024 Draft (Full Version)

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Bill Jandro -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 7:46:20 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Olson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-mock-draft-commanders-jj-mccarthy-vikings-two-qbs

Here you go Marty. I think someone’s stealing your stuff!

Projected Trade: Vikings receive Pick No. 9; (Take Maye) Bears receive Picks Nos. 11 and 108

34. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: QB MICHAEL PENIX JR., WASHINGTON

Projected Trade: Vikings receive Pick Nos. 34 and 68; Patriots receive Pick No. 23

That is click bait...

Broncos trade up to 3? "Broncos receive Pick No. 3; Patriots receive Pick Nos. 12, 76 and a 2025 first-round pick"

No way does NE do that...and if they are open to trading, Minnesota will offer 11, 23 and 2025 1st to outdo that...

Guessing Patrick Surtain is also included




Chris Olson -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 10:22:53 AM)

Lotsa talk that Jayden Daniels was a lock to Washington, esp because of "playstyle" and "fit" with Kliff Kingsbury

But I'm seeing more and more folks saying, thinking about immediate "fit" won't really factor in (who knows how long Kingsbury stays), and they are suggesting Maye will be the pick

Trapasso today mocked Minnesota trading up with NE to take Daniels if that happens (though the word early on was that Daniels was the guy NE wanted, so not sure if that would happen)

But, damn! That would be my preference...this offense could be special!

Barring getting Maye or Daniels, I don't love a trade up, but those 2 I do it for (or Caleb...lol)




Tom Sykes -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 10:29:59 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Olson

I really hope (based on nothing) that Kwesi shows he has some balls in this draft...

He said all the right things in his press conference, but nobody believes him

He probably does more for his career in football with a stick and pick than a frantic trade up for JJ

But I know he wants to get his Mahomes, and I can't see him not going for it...

And I wonder how would the fanbase feel if he does find some balls and ends up with Byron Murphy and Terrion Arnold and we ride with Darnold?

That, to me, would feel like a failure, even if it might be amazing for our defense

I agree the attempt to move up is inevitable but I will be less excited by that than I have been throughout the process. I have cooled a little bit on the second tier guys, at least for today, so the move up IMO will require a heavy heavy dose of luck for a fair return. All these guys have strengths but also glaring deficiencies and they will all require quite a bit of development.

But ... I'm not ready to jump out of the QB sweepstakes yet.

As much as Darnold is a newer / greener grass than than Cousins (with almost no chance to be as decent) ... Darnold / Mullens / Hall is still staring down the injury barrel of annihilation.

IMO there's absolutely no way to NOT add one of these first rd guys to our QB room. A QB and a Def player is my best case first rd scenario by far, a QB and OL is a distant second best, a move up for QB is my third.




kgdabom -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 10:47:04 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Olson

I really hope (based on nothing) that Kwesi shows he has some balls in this draft...

He said all the right things in his press conference, but nobody believes him

He probably does more for his career in football with a stick and pick than a frantic trade up for JJ

But I know he wants to get his Mahomes, and I can't see him not going for it...

And I wonder how would the fanbase feel if he does find some balls and ends up with Byron Murphy and Terrion Arnold and we ride with Darnold?

That, to me, would feel like a failure, even if it might be amazing for our defense

I agree the attempt to move up is inevitable but I will be less excited by that than I have been throughout the process. I have cooled a little bit on the second tier guys, at least for today, so the move up IMO will require a heavy heavy dose of luck for a fair return. All these guys have strengths but also glaring deficiencies and they will all require quite a bit of development.

But ... I'm not ready to jump out of the QB sweepstakes yet.

As much as Darnold is a newer / greener grass than than Cousins (with almost no chance to be as decent) ... Darnold / Mullens / Hall is still staring down the injury barrel of annihilation.

IMO there's absolutely no way to NOT add one of these first rd guys to our QB room. A QB and a Def player is my best case first rd scenario by far, a QB and OL is a distant second best, a move up for QB is my third.

I'm with you all the way.




Mark Anderson -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 10:58:21 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Olson

I really hope (based on nothing) that Kwesi shows he has some balls in this draft...

He said all the right things in his press conference, but nobody believes him

He probably does more for his career in football with a stick and pick than a frantic trade up for JJ

But I know he wants to get his Mahomes, and I can't see him not going for it...

And I wonder how would the fanbase feel if he does find some balls and ends up with Byron Murphy and Terrion Arnold and we ride with Darnold?

That, to me, would feel like a failure, even if it might be amazing for our defense


Murphy, Arnold, and next year's first rounder. Still missing the most important position, but not convinced JJ is all that.

I just looked at Darnold's past teams.

Jets: Adam Gase HC, WRs that fetaured Jamison Crowder as top WR, poor OLine.

Carolina: Disaster in every aspect.

27 years old, somewhat mobile, good to great arm.

This is a guy that deserves a chance in a great situation.

So, three 1sts to get Maye or JJ. Or Arnold and two 1sts to get Nix or Penix(2025 first rounder to move up from #23)




Tom Sykes -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 12:07:04 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Olson

I really hope (based on nothing) that Kwesi shows he has some balls in this draft...

He said all the right things in his press conference, but nobody believes him

He probably does more for his career in football with a stick and pick than a frantic trade up for JJ

But I know he wants to get his Mahomes, and I can't see him not going for it...

And I wonder how would the fanbase feel if he does find some balls and ends up with Byron Murphy and Terrion Arnold and we ride with Darnold?

That, to me, would feel like a failure, even if it might be amazing for our defense


Murphy, Arnold, and next year's first rounder. Still missing the most important position, but not convinced JJ is all that.

I just looked at Darnold's past teams.

Jets: Adam Gase HC, WRs that fetaured Jamison Crowder as top WR, poor OLine.

Carolina: Disaster in every aspect.

27 years old, somewhat mobile, good to great arm.

This is a guy that deserves a chance in a great situation.

So, three 1sts to get Maye or JJ. Or Arnold and two 1sts to get Nix or Penix(2025 first rounder to move up from #23)

Consider the teams. More importantly, look at how he has performed and what value those teams put on him after they had a chance to see him perform.

In other words, he's a journeyman.

Does he deserve a chance? I think so.

Expectation for success? I'll go with the team's one year "lets see what we got' rental deal. AKA fairly tepid expectations with an honorary *you never know.

In fact, Kwesi's decision to push 5M to 2025 obscures whether we can keep him another year, especially if he plays well.

Drafting someone this year and then resigning Darnold for a back-up market rate + 5M is tall cotton. For a team that likes their backups in the 2-2.5M range.




Tom Sykes -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 12:10:26 PM)

But ... we'll see what happens in the draft first.




Bill Johanesen -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 1:26:24 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Olson

I really hope (based on nothing) that Kwesi shows he has some balls in this draft...

He said all the right things in his press conference, but nobody believes him

He probably does more for his career in football with a stick and pick than a frantic trade up for JJ

But I know he wants to get his Mahomes, and I can't see him not going for it...

And I wonder how would the fanbase feel if he does find some balls and ends up with Byron Murphy and Terrion Arnold and we ride with Darnold?

That, to me, would feel like a failure, even if it might be amazing for our defense


Murphy, Arnold, and next year's first rounder. Still missing the most important position, but not convinced JJ is all that.

I just looked at Darnold's past teams.

Jets: Adam Gase HC, WRs that fetaured Jamison Crowder as top WR, poor OLine.

Carolina: Disaster in every aspect.

27 years old, somewhat mobile, good to great arm.

This is a guy that deserves a chance in a great situation.

So, three 1sts to get Maye or JJ. Or Arnold and two 1sts to get Nix or Penix(2025 first rounder to move up from #23)


So, three 1sts to get Maye or JJ. No way.

Or Arnold and two 1sts to get Nix or Penix(2025 first rounder to move up from #23). Just take Nix or Penix at #11, the best defender at #23, and keep the 2025 1st rounder.

If they like Penix or Nix (and in this drill it's assumed so since they are picking one), then take one rather than be left holding nothing after using the 2025 1st rounder in some sort of sliding scale trade. This also based on Arnold not being the hands-down best CB prospect. IDK, and it seems 3-4 are kind of vying for the top spot. Plus a DL could be the best defender at #23 so go there. Flores didn't use DL much last year, but who knows how long he'll be in Minny.

So after day one there is a similar return - again, depending on how they like Arnold or whoever - AND they have their 2025 1st.




Mark Anderson -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 2:06:27 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Olson

I really hope (based on nothing) that Kwesi shows he has some balls in this draft...

He said all the right things in his press conference, but nobody believes him

He probably does more for his career in football with a stick and pick than a frantic trade up for JJ

But I know he wants to get his Mahomes, and I can't see him not going for it...

And I wonder how would the fanbase feel if he does find some balls and ends up with Byron Murphy and Terrion Arnold and we ride with Darnold?

That, to me, would feel like a failure, even if it might be amazing for our defense


Murphy, Arnold, and next year's first rounder. Still missing the most important position, but not convinced JJ is all that.

I just looked at Darnold's past teams.

Jets: Adam Gase HC, WRs that fetaured Jamison Crowder as top WR, poor OLine.

Carolina: Disaster in every aspect.

27 years old, somewhat mobile, good to great arm.

This is a guy that deserves a chance in a great situation.

So, three 1sts to get Maye or JJ. Or Arnold and two 1sts to get Nix or Penix(2025 first rounder to move up from #23)


So, three 1sts to get Maye or JJ. No way.

Or Arnold and two 1sts to get Nix or Penix(2025 first rounder to move up from #23). Just take Nix or Penix at #11, the best defender at #23, and keep the 2025 1st rounder.

If they like Penix or Nix (and in this drill it's assumed so since they are picking one), then take one rather than be left holding nothing after using the 2025 1st rounder in some sort of sliding scale trade. This also based on Arnold not being the hands-down best CB prospect. IDK, and it seems 3-4 are kind of vying for the top spot. Plus a DL could be the best defender at #23 so go there. Flores didn't use DL much last year, but who knows how long he'll be in Minny.

So after day one there is a similar return - again, depending on how they like Arnold or whoever - AND they have their 2025 1st.

Yes. Way better than my plan.




Bill Johanesen -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 2:16:59 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Olson

I really hope (based on nothing) that Kwesi shows he has some balls in this draft...

He said all the right things in his press conference, but nobody believes him

He probably does more for his career in football with a stick and pick than a frantic trade up for JJ

But I know he wants to get his Mahomes, and I can't see him not going for it...

And I wonder how would the fanbase feel if he does find some balls and ends up with Byron Murphy and Terrion Arnold and we ride with Darnold?

That, to me, would feel like a failure, even if it might be amazing for our defense


Murphy, Arnold, and next year's first rounder. Still missing the most important position, but not convinced JJ is all that.

I just looked at Darnold's past teams.

Jets: Adam Gase HC, WRs that fetaured Jamison Crowder as top WR, poor OLine.

Carolina: Disaster in every aspect.

27 years old, somewhat mobile, good to great arm.

This is a guy that deserves a chance in a great situation.

So, three 1sts to get Maye or JJ. Or Arnold and two 1sts to get Nix or Penix(2025 first rounder to move up from #23)

Consider the teams. More importantly, look at how he has performed and what value those teams put on him after they had a chance to see him perform.

In other words, he's a journeyman.

Does he deserve a chance? I think so.

Expectation for success? I'll go with the team's one year "lets see what we got' rental deal. AKA fairly tepid expectations with an honorary *you never know.

In fact, Kwesi's decision to push 5M to 2025 obscures whether we can keep him another year, especially if he plays well.

Drafting someone this year and then resigning Darnold for a back-up market rate + 5M is tall cotton. For a team that likes their backups in the 2-2.5M range.


All the FA 'splashes' are cheap this year. 2024 / outyear cap hits:

Greenard 6 / 22 / 22 / 22 / (3 void)
Cashman 3 / 6 / 9 / (3 void)
Van Winkle 3 / 12 / (4 void)

330% increase from 2024 to 2025.




Mark Anderson -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 2:31:10 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes

quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Olson

I really hope (based on nothing) that Kwesi shows he has some balls in this draft...

He said all the right things in his press conference, but nobody believes him

He probably does more for his career in football with a stick and pick than a frantic trade up for JJ

But I know he wants to get his Mahomes, and I can't see him not going for it...

And I wonder how would the fanbase feel if he does find some balls and ends up with Byron Murphy and Terrion Arnold and we ride with Darnold?

That, to me, would feel like a failure, even if it might be amazing for our defense


Murphy, Arnold, and next year's first rounder. Still missing the most important position, but not convinced JJ is all that.

I just looked at Darnold's past teams.

Jets: Adam Gase HC, WRs that fetaured Jamison Crowder as top WR, poor OLine.

Carolina: Disaster in every aspect.

27 years old, somewhat mobile, good to great arm.

This is a guy that deserves a chance in a great situation.

So, three 1sts to get Maye or JJ. Or Arnold and two 1sts to get Nix or Penix(2025 first rounder to move up from #23)

Consider the teams. More importantly, look at how he has performed and what value those teams put on him after they had a chance to see him perform.

In other words, he's a journeyman.

Does he deserve a chance? I think so.

Expectation for success? I'll go with the team's one year "lets see what we got' rental deal. AKA fairly tepid expectations with an honorary *you never know.

In fact, Kwesi's decision to push 5M to 2025 obscures whether we can keep him another year, especially if he plays well.

Drafting someone this year and then resigning Darnold for a back-up market rate + 5M is tall cotton. For a team that likes their backups in the 2-2.5M range.


All the FA 'splashes' are cheap this year. 2024 / outyear cap hits:

Greenard 6 / 22 / 22 / 22 / (3 void)
Cashman 3 / 6 / 9 / (3 void)
Van Winkle 3 / 12 / (4 void)

330% increase from 2024 to 2025.

We have around 40M dead cap coming off in 2025. Greenard will get renegotiated some. The other 2 we might just stand pat.

We are fine. But, need to hit on rookie QB to keep cap in order.




marty -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 4:41:34 PM)

The young man that is still inside me, wants the excitement of a trade up into the top 5.

My mature side thinks it's probably more prudent to not trade up, take Daniels, McCarthy, Nix or Penix at #11, whichever they deem the best of the 4.

Defense or WR at #23.




marty -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 4:45:34 PM)

Just as I proposed last week, here is someone saying the Bears trade with the Vikings, #8 for #11 and a 4th rounder:

https://share.newsbreak.com/6nrgq4im

I like this one, as it has Maye still on the board at #8, which could happen because of some of his accuracy issues.

Then again, it could be Daniels dropping to #8, because of his age, and fears of injury with his running style.




kgdabom -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 5:45:29 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

Just as I proposed last week, here is someone saying the Bears trade with the Vikings, #8 for #11 and a 4th rounder:

https://share.newsbreak.com/6nrgq4im

I like this one, as it has Maye still on the board at #8, which could happen because of some of his accuracy issues.

Then again, it could be Daniels dropping to #8, because of his age, and fears of injury with his running style.

Bears have 9 not 8, but other than that I can see it.




Tom Sykes -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 6:23:54 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

Just as I proposed last week, here is someone saying the Bears trade with the Vikings, #8 for #11 and a 4th rounder:

https://share.newsbreak.com/6nrgq4im

I like this one, as it has Maye still on the board at #8, which could happen because of some of his accuracy issues.

Then again, it could be Daniels dropping to #8, because of his age, and fears of injury with his running style.

That's a fresh take.

Well ... except that you are linking to the same trade / mock draft that Todd posted yesterday and that you already responded to.

We trade with Bears, we draft Maye and Penix.

Not going to happen.




Tom Sykes -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 6:29:53 PM)

The Bears would have to be devastated that they missed out on the players they were targeting, and they would have to feel very very lukewarm to the QBs left on the board.

(or worse, Kwesi gives up way to much to trade).

Then maybe we flip picks but it is very very very doubtful. The Maye-Penix combo is total discombobulation.




marty -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 6:50:31 PM)

If the Bears thought they would still get Odunze, gain an additional 4th, and give the Vikings an inaccurate QB, they might just do it, feeling the Vikings were likely at that point to get him at #11 anyway.




TJSweens -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 6:56:04 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

The young man that is still inside me, wants the excitement of a trade up into the top 5.

My mature side thinks it's probably more prudent to not trade up, take Daniels, McCarthy, Nix or Penix at #11, whichever they deem the best of the 4.

Defense or WR at #23.

Daniels and McCarthy won't be there at 11. Nix or Penix is a big reach at 11. I'd rather they go defense at 11 and take whichever is left at 23.

Those are both worst case scenarios to me. I would still rather overpay for Maye or McCarthy than settle for Nix or Penix.




Murph -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 7:12:22 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chris Olson

Lotsa talk that Jayden Daniels was a lock to Washington, esp because of "playstyle" and "fit" with Kliff Kingsbury

But I'm seeing more and more folks saying, thinking about immediate "fit" won't really factor in (who knows how long Kingsbury stays), and they are suggesting Maye will be the pick

Trapasso today mocked Minnesota trading up with NE to take Daniels if that happens (though the word early on was that Daniels was the guy NE wanted, so not sure if that would happen)

But, damn! That would be my preference...this offense could be special!

Barring getting Maye or Daniels, I don't love a trade up, but those 2 I do it for (or Caleb...lol)


My excitement level would be off the charts if we somehow end up with Daniels!




Todd M -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/16/2024 7:26:39 PM)

If Daniels gets to 3 he’s the big prize. The only one I want to make a big move for.

Depending on 2 teams to make moves in our favor.

Otherwise I like Tim’s plan.




ratoppenheimer -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/17/2024 1:50:31 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

If Daniels gets to 3 he’s the big prize. The only one I want to make a big move for.

Depending on 2 teams to make moves in our favor.

Otherwise I like Tim’s plan.



offer washington 11, 23, and two 1sts - '25 and '26 - and they kick back a 2nd in '26...or they don't kick back a 2nd...just get daniels....

in my experience, people don't regret spending more for quality, but they do regret spending less for inferior....

daniels is the man, go get him....




Todd M -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/17/2024 6:39:15 AM)

Now that there’s been talk of Nix being a target/good fit we’ve now been tied to 5 of the 6 QB’s. Good job Kwesi.

Strongest link is still Maye. This is why I’d love to see them @2. Who’s your guy fellas?!




Bill Johanesen -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/17/2024 8:45:41 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: ratoppenheimer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

If Daniels gets to 3 he’s the big prize. The only one I want to make a big move for.

Depending on 2 teams to make moves in our favor.

Otherwise I like Tim’s plan.



offer washington 11, 23, and two 1sts - '25 and '26 - and they kick back a 2nd in '26...or they don't kick back a 2nd...just get daniels....

in my experience, people don't regret spending more for quality, but they do regret spending less for inferior....

daniels is the man, go get him....


So four 1st round picks. Would you give up five?




ratoppenheimer -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/17/2024 10:21:07 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: ratoppenheimer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

If Daniels gets to 3 he’s the big prize. The only one I want to make a big move for.

Depending on 2 teams to make moves in our favor.

Otherwise I like Tim’s plan.



offer washington 11, 23, and two 1sts - '25 and '26 - and they kick back a 2nd in '26...or they don't kick back a 2nd...just get daniels....

in my experience, people don't regret spending more for quality, but they do regret spending less for inferior....

daniels is the man, go get him....


So four 1st round picks. Would you give up five?



right this moment, with everything that i know - i would not go beyond '26....




Todd M -> RE: 2024 Draft (4/17/2024 11:13:28 AM)

Really good analysis of Daniels

https://www.reddit.com/r/Commanders/s/npxPb2YIfC

(the link is locked. I got it through Reddit r/commandera



Pressure to Sack Rate, a measurement of how often a QB turns pressures into sacks, has become of the most important & stable statistics for college prospects over the last few years. Generally QBs want to keep this number under 20% in college, as there are very few successful NFL passers who survive long while operating above that mark. As I mentioned, this stat is very stable: whatever a guy does in this department in college is very unlikely to improve in the NFL (though it may get worse). Daniels pressure to sack rate for his career is 24.5%, which is 108th out of the aforementioned 114 QBs in our data set. The list of passers in his neighborhood is not particularly encouraging.
While many of the QBs in this area were late round picks who haven’t received significant NFL playing time, the ones who have played have all been below average starters or worse so far in limited action, and all of them have taken an above-average amount of sacks. Given everything we know about Pressure to Sack Rate and history, it is almost certain that Daniels will struggle with taking sacks at the next




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