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Mr. Ed -> RE: Players and prospects III (5/8/2017 2:19:46 PM)
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http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/05/mining-minors-time-get-excited-nick-gordon/
As the calendar turns to May and sample sizes slowly start to become more meaningful, we can have a little more confidence in drawing some initial conclusions about player performance.
In the Majors, we’ve seen Derek Falvey and Thad Levine begin to act after a month of observation, DFA’ing Danny Santana and Michael Tonkin and demoting Kyle Gibson to Triple-A Rochester. Falvey and Levine, of course, certainly gave weight to each player’s overall body of work, not just their performance this year. Clearly, though, they saw a month’s worth of data as a large enough sample size to justify demoting someone like Gibson, a relatively established major league player.
So, if you buy into the idea that we’re approaching statistical significance in the evaluation process, then allow yourself to get excited about Nick Gordon, because he’s tearing up the Southern League. Through play Friday, Gordon is hitting .340/.402/.490, with a .892 OPS. Those numbers would be impressive in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, where offensive numbers are often inflated (old friend Oswaldo Arcia is currently hitting .385/.438/.758 for the Reno Aces). In the Southern League, Gordon’s batting line is among the very best. Among hitters with at least 50 plate appearances, Gordon ranks 3rd in average, 10th in OBP, and 7th in OPS.
That alone would be cause for excitement, but it doesn’t tell the full story. Although Double-A is a younger league than Triple-A, it still has its fair share of non-prospects—career minor leaguers in their late 20s who will likely never see the big leagues. If you filter out players 25 and older, Gordon ranks 2nd in the league in average, 6th in OBP, and 4th in OPS. And he’s doing all of that as the youngest hitter in the league–he won’t turn 22 until late October.
Again, it’s only one month. But Gordon’s hit well at every level of the minor leagues and the Arizona Fall League, while being among the youngest players at each level. His track record, in other words, suggests this isn’t likely a flash in the pan. He hadn’t hit for much power in his career coming into the year, but that’s changing this year as well, as he continues to grow into his body.
Gordon’s always been a projectable player—there’s a reason the Twins took him 5th overall. And while he’s impressed with the bat throughout his career, we may be seeing him take it to another level this season. Again, it’s early, but maybe it’s no longer too early. Get excited.
Engelb Vielma
Vielma gets a fraction of the hype of his double play partner at Chattanooga, but he’s putting up comparable offensive numbers. The 23-year-old is hitting .326/.378/.382 through the first 25 games of the season. Those numbers are much more surprising than Gordon’s because they differ substantially from what he’s done thus far in his career (which of course also suggests more reason for caution in drawing meaning from those numbers). Vielma’s a career .267/.330/.313 hitter. It could be a fluke, but it’s also possible the slim-framed Vielma is coming into his own a bit, and perhaps has added some muscle. In 397 plate appearances last year, Vielma had just 11 extra base hits. He already has 5 in 100 plate appearances this year. I think the Twins need to see Vielma have sustained offensive success before they buy into the notion that he could hit enough to stick in the big leagues, but so far his start has surely exceeded their expectations.
As I’ve written about at length in this column, the reason Vielma is intriguing is because of his glove. By most accounts, his glove is big-league ready at shortstop, which makes his hot offensive start all the more intriguing. I’ve also written at length, perhaps obsessively so, about where Gordon and Vielma are playing defensively, and what that could mean about how the Twins view them. A pattern appears to finally be emerging, I think. The Twins seem to be clustering Vielma and Gordon’s games at shortstop and second, respectively. Vielma opened the season playing 4 straight games at second, followed by 5 straight at short, 3 straight at second and on and on. Gordon’s pattern, by extension, is similarly clustered, but at the opposite position of Vielma. They could each play their natural position of shortstop, of course, if one of them gets promoted. I’d expect the older Vielma to get the call first, and I wouldn’t be shocked if that happened relatively soon.
Nick Burdi
Burdi’s an intriguing prospect because of his upside—he throws a triple digit fastball and nasty slider. When he was drafted out of Louisville, many saw him as a future late-inning MLB reliever, and so far this season, he’s pitching like one. He’s given up 1 run while striking out 13 in 9.1 innings, and has touched 100 MPH in recent outings.
Daniel Palka
After a blistering start, Palka’s slumped the past two weeks. He’s currently hitting .242/.296/.440. He’s had enough success at every level of the minor leagues to suggest that his numbers will come up again, and when I chatted with him earlier this year he talked about how he was less anxious at the plate this year and wasn’t bothered by bad offensive nights. No one enjoys slumping, of course, but Palka seems to know who he is as a hitter and has confidence that his approach will continue to produce big numbers. I’d be surprised if his bat doesn’t heat up again as the weather in upstate New York starts to improve after two weeks of rain delays and games played in mostly cold, raw weather.
Stephen Gonsalves
Nothing new to report with Gonsalves, who remains on the DL at Chattanooga. He indicated on social media a couple weeks ago that he was targeting a mid-May return.
Fernando Romero
After two bad starts to open the season, Romero has been brilliant. Over his last three starts, Romero’s given up 2 earned runs over 18.1 innings, with 16 Ks and 3 walks. Romero has electric stuff, and after a dominating stint at High-A Fort Myers last year, he’s off to a good start in Double-A in his age 22 season. Among the Twins’ starting pitching prospects, Romero probably has the best chance of one day being a number 1 or 2 starter in the majors. I don’t think there’s much of a chance we’ll see him in Minnesota this year, but if he continues to put up dominating numbers he could enter spring training next year with a legitimate chance to win a spot in the Twins’ starting rotation.
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