ewen21 -> RE: Players and prospects III (7/30/2014 4:27:51 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: djskillz quote:
ORIGINAL: ewen21 The chances of our bushel of "hot prospects" panning out at a 50% rate would be extremely exceptional, imo. After all, we were told the Twins had a treasure trove of young pitching about a decade ago. Since Matt Garza arrived in 2006, besides Gibson, not a single Twins farmhand has stuck in the majors as a starting pitcher. Not one. And if you remember the Twins did not want to "Mortgage the future" in 2006 at the trade deadline. If you remember the best Terry Ryan could do was sign Phil Nevin to help out for the stretch drive during that incredible run. I was thoroughly disappointed because the Twins kept saying....prospects......prospects.....prospects. Where are they now? Umm, the Twins have not had nearly the level of prospects in their system over the last 10 years or so as they do now. In fact, the Twins have NEVER had a system even close to as good as it is now. And again, these aren't just "Twins' evaluations. They're universal in baseball. 6 of the top 50. Dustin, that is only part of a post I made elsewhere. You can disagree if you like but when you start disagreeing with facts you lose me: Based on my years of experience following this, and the mountains of data supporting it, my enthusiasm about prospects is a lot lower than your average Twins fan. I would say Twins fans generally overstate the value of prospects as compared to most other fans. A lot of it is pie in the sky fairy dust. It's stuff to talk about. Something to pin your hopes on but I don't get too crazy over it until guys start getting close. Many of our guys aren't even close yet. Go to Twins Daily and check out what those guys write about prospects. IN reality, the odds of a first round pick even making it to the majors is 66% percent: http://www.angelfire.com/vt/prospectwatch/index10.html http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1219356-examining-the-percentage-of-mlb-draft-picks-that-reach-the-major-leagues/page/2 Only about 10% of minor league players end up playing a single game in the majors. The chances of our bushel of "hot prospects" panning out at a 50% rate would be extremely exceptional, imo. Afterall, I was tolkd Twins had a treasure trove of young pitching about a decade ago. Since Matt Garza arrived in 2006 not a single Twins farmhand has stuck in the majors as a starting pitcher. Not one. And if you remember the Twins did not want to "Mortgage the future" in 2006 at the trade deadline. If you remember the best Terry Ryan could do was sign Phil Nevin to help out for the stretch drive during that incredible run. I was thoroughly disappointed because the Twins kept saying....prospects......prospects.....prospects. WHere are they now? For me, there is NO WAY to predict pitching anymore. I see Berrios had to be taken out of yesterday's game with a sore arm. Who is Kohl Stewart? He was drafted high a year ago. HE is 19 and just recently had an MRI. May projects more as a reliever than a starter. For all we hear about Meyer his numbers in AAA aren't all that impressive. He has a fastball but is still trying to develop a repertoire of pitches that would make him major league quality. And remember, he was dealt for Denard Span. How much do you think Washington's GM was going to give up for a mid-level CF like Span? I think a lot of the excitement surrounding Meyer has centered on his velocity and his size. He is so different from what we are used to seeing that people got excited. I am growing less and less excited about this guy. I'm sorry, but when it comes to prospects they have to show me. For me the prospects that HAVE TO pan out are the STARTING PITCHERS. For GOD's sake.....is it against the f'kn law for this franchise to raise good starting pitching?? If they cannot do that then talent like Sano, Buxton, etc....will be wasted. I still am not so sure what kind of hitters these two guys are going to be. Are we too in love with Buxton's "tools"? I don't see the offense yet with him. With Sano, is he going to be a Mark Reynolds feast or famine type? Will he even survive the "Twins way" of doing things? I'm skeptical. With regards to prospects I say prove it. I am saying they can't be great. I'm just going with the historical data. To me prospects are nothing but assets. The Twins go bananas over their prospects and view all of them as being untradeable and that will forever be an issue, imo
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