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2017 Draft Prediction Challenge

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2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/15/2017 8:55:04 AM  1 votes
Ian Joseph


Posts: 15462
Joined: 7/15/2007
From: Los Angeles, CA
Status: offline 		Welcome back to the 8th Annual Talkvikes Draft Prediction Challenge. This is the pre-game/conversation thread for the contest. This will also be the thread where changes to the questions will be discussed.

Listed is last year's entry form. The questions in red will not return for this 2017 edition (for obvious reasons). The questions in purple may or may not return.


2016 Draft Challenge Entry Questions

Name the Team that Selects Carson Wentz:
Name the Team that Selects Corey Coleman:
Name the Team that Selects Josh Doctson:
Name the Team that Selects Laquon Treadwell:
Jaylon Smith Will Be Drafted in Round:
How Many Trades Will Occur in the First Round:
The First Team to Trade with the Vikings (during the draft):
The First Team to Trade a 2017 Draft Pick (during the draft):
The First team to Trade for a Current NFL Player (during the draft):
How Many Total Vikings Trades:
Vikings’ 1st Player Selected:
Vikings’ 2nd Player Selected:
Vikings’ 3rd Player Selected:

Tiebreaker
How Many Total Players will the Vikings Draft:


The 2017 Challenge will be live on April 16 (tomorrow). The prizes will be as follows:

* The winner will receive $50 gift card and two preseason tickets to the Vikings home game of their choice.
* 2nd place will receive $25 gift card of their choice.
* 3rd place will receive $10 gift card of their choice.
* 4th place gets to wish they finished 3rd (or better).
* A winning entry scoring at least 25 points will win a customized Nike Elite Vikings jersey.

Unlike previous years, I wont be asking for additional question suggestions, as our turnaround time is short. So, just get ready to play.

< Message edited by Ian Joseph -- 4/15/2017 10:13:35 PM >

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Post #: 1
RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/15/2017 10:37:34 AM   
Ian Joseph


Posts: 15462
Joined: 7/15/2007
From: Los Angeles, CA
Status: offline 		Final pre-contest stats.. 15 questions, including 9 new ones (2 separate question types making their debut).

This contest is potentially the highest scoring contest ever, though it may also be the hardest to date. The contest themes are players, teams, trades and of course, Vikings.

The contest also extends through the entire draft. So, in other words, we may not know who wins until the final pick occurs.

< Message edited by Ian Joseph -- 4/15/2017 10:57:07 PM >

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RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/16/2017 12:36:51 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 20596
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline 		I have the Vikings first three picks being Dawkins, Mixon, and Maye.
So let it be written
So let it be done

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RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/16/2017 1:03:04 PM   
Todd M

 

Posts: 37863
Joined: 7/14/2007
Status: offline 		I'm down with the OG, kG, and cool with the S, but by my projections you've got us with 3 players heading into the 5th round. Mixon taking 3 draft slots to land. Pass.

(you have Mixon going in the 2nd and us taking him...OG first and a trade back into the 2nd eats up our two 4ths if you want that S in the 3rd)

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RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/16/2017 11:08:15 PM   
Todd M

 

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quote:

Note: A winning entry scoring 25 or more points will win a customized Nike Elite Vikings jersey.


I love this. It actually seems obtainable this year. Kudos for that.

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RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/16/2017 11:46:47 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

I'm down with the OG, kG, and cool with the S, but by my projections you've got us with 3 players heading into the 5th round. Mixon taking 3 draft slots to land. Pass.

(you have Mixon going in the 2nd and us taking him...OG first and a trade back into the 2nd eats up our two 4ths if you want that S in the 3rd)

I have us trading for the last pick of the second round with New England to take Mixon. I think it could be pretty legit.

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RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/17/2017 12:03:10 AM   
Todd M

 

Posts: 37863
Joined: 7/14/2007
Status: offline 		That's still our 1st 3rd round pick and our two 4ths. 3 Picks for Mixon when we have a 1 and a 2 on the roster and can take a flyer on a guy, then two more guys instead of one guy with PR hits and questionable character. Pass.

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Post #: 7
RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/17/2017 12:04:41 AM   
Todd M

 

Posts: 37863
Joined: 7/14/2007
Status: offline 		Mixon only if he's sitting their at 79.

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RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/17/2017 12:56:30 AM   
Ian Joseph


Posts: 15462
Joined: 7/15/2007
From: Los Angeles, CA
Status: offline 		I'll say that this damn contest is making me truly learn Microsoft Excel. Currently trying to link each of your team-related entries with the associated teams' helmet. Only have had success doing it for the answer key portion.

I'm not trying to do separate name definitions for every single answer. I'll figure it out, hopefully. And if not, cut & paste works fine.

At least the scoring part works fine.

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RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/17/2017 8:37:07 AM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

That's still our 1st 3rd round pick and our two 4ths. 3 Picks for Mixon when we have a 1 and a 2 on the roster and can take a flyer on a guy, then two more guys instead of one guy with PR hits and questionable character. Pass.

Is that the draft chart value that seems like nobody follows anymore? What if we can get that pick for our 2nd third and first 4th. We give up one player for the upgrade.

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RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/17/2017 8:51:15 AM   
Mark Anderson

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

That's still our 1st 3rd round pick and our two 4ths. 3 Picks for Mixon when we have a 1 and a 2 on the roster and can take a flyer on a guy, then two more guys instead of one guy with PR hits and questionable character. Pass.

Plus lots of really good RBs in this draft.

We have shown an interest in Jamaal Williams(BYU). Powerful, decent speed, some elusiveness and doesn't fumble.

Also, Mixon or any RB isn't going to have success with us until we get serious about OLine.

< Message edited by Mark Anderson -- 4/17/2017 8:54:44 AM >
Post #: 11
RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/17/2017 8:58:44 AM   
Todd M

 

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Joined: 7/14/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

That's still our 1st 3rd round pick and our two 4ths. 3 Picks for Mixon when we have a 1 and a 2 on the roster and can take a flyer on a guy, then two more guys instead of one guy with PR hits and questionable character. Pass.

Is that the draft chart value that seems like nobody follows anymore? What if we can get that pick for our 2nd third and first 4th. We give up one player for the upgrade.


Yes they all threw it out the window and now say; call us up and rape us for value. Like the Pats would wait for their first pick in the draft and move down near 30 slots (with comps included) for a less than enticing later-ish 4th?

< Message edited by Todd M -- 4/17/2017 9:26:06 AM >

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RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/17/2017 9:06:07 AM   
Todd M

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

That's still our 1st 3rd round pick and our two 4ths. 3 Picks for Mixon when we have a 1 and a 2 on the roster and can take a flyer on a guy, then two more guys instead of one guy with PR hits and questionable character. Pass.

Plus lots of really good RBs in this draft.

We have shown an interest in Jamaal Williams(BYU). Powerful, decent speed, some elusiveness and doesn't fumble.

Also, Mixon or any RB isn't going to have success with us until we get serious about OLine.


Fair enough.

I feel pretty good about a couple of things. One, that Mixon will be gone before any trade up scenario enters the equation and that we're not looking to make our splash move - a move for a RB, esp one with character concerns...after paying a guy a pretty good chunk in FA, and having a solid #2 guy. Just don't see it at all. But I don't mind seeing it come up continuously in picks from our posters in this contest.

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RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/17/2017 9:06:44 AM   
Ian Joseph


Posts: 15462
Joined: 7/15/2007
From: Los Angeles, CA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

That's still our 1st 3rd round pick and our two 4ths. 3 Picks for Mixon when we have a 1 and a 2 on the roster and can take a flyer on a guy, then two more guys instead of one guy with PR hits and questionable character. Pass.

Is that the draft chart value that seems like nobody follows anymore? What if we can get that pick for our 2nd third and first 4th. We give up one player for the upgrade.


Yes they all threw it out the window and now say; call us up and rape us for value. Like the Pats would wait for their first pick in the draft and move down near 30 slots (with comps included) for a less than enticing later-ish 4th?


While I don't think it's been thrown out, I think the rookie wage scale negotiated in the CBA has changed the value of first round picks dramatically. It will still cost you to acquire one, but not at the exorbitant prices it used to. And if it will truly be pricey, it's becuz of the "can't miss" quarterback at the top of the draft.

The value change is why you see so many first round trades now. And with compensatory picks now eligible for trade, it's going to be even more apparent.

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RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/17/2017 9:38:51 AM   
Todd M

 

Posts: 37863
Joined: 7/14/2007
Status: offline 		Try and get this right...


Proposed trade:

Vikes get 64
Pats get 86/121

A move down of 22 slots (comps don't come in to play yet)

"old" value chart:

64 = 270
86 = 160 121 = 52. 160 + 52 = 212 = 58 points short.

Closest thing to compare from last year: (still going with the old chart)

Buccaneers receive:
» 2016 second-round pick (No. 59): Roberto Aguayo

Chiefs receive:
» 2016 third-round pick (No. 74): KeiVarae Russell
» 2016 fourth-round pick (No. 106): Eric Murray

A move down of 15 slots

59 = 310

74 = 220 106 = 82. 220 + 82 = 302 = pretty bang on.

No way could we expect the Pats to move down more slots and take a bath on value.

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Post #: 15
RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/17/2017 9:49:35 AM   
Ian Joseph


Posts: 15462
Joined: 7/15/2007
From: Los Angeles, CA
Status: offline 		I don't think anybody is arguing that point. A team is not going to trade it's pick without receiving what it feels is fair value. Nor will a team move up without giving what it feels is fair. The point is the trade value chart is not anywhere close to absolute anymore.

Rather than look at our trades, look at a nice sample set of trades over the last five or six years. And then compare it to five or six years prior to when the rookie wage scale went into effect. Your line in the sand is when the Rams drafted Sam Bradford.

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Hate the message, not the messenger.

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RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/17/2017 9:51:41 AM   
Todd M

 

Posts: 37863
Joined: 7/14/2007
Status: offline 		Looking at last years trades, like I did last year for the year before, it seems pretty obvious the team you're trading with and that has to move down NEVER gives up significant value just for the sake of making a move. It all lines up pretty well with the old TVC.

KG is looking for the Pats to leave mid 4th value on the board and there's just no way.

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RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/17/2017 9:54:58 AM   
Todd M

 

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Joined: 7/14/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian Joseph

I don't think anybody is arguing that point. A team is not going to trade it's pick without receiving what it feels is fair value. Nor will a team move up without giving what it feels is fair. The point is the trade value chart is not anywhere close to absolute anymore.

Rather than look at our trades, look at a nice sample set of trades over the last five or six years. And then compare it to five or six years prior to when the rookie wage scale went into effect. Your line in the sand is when the Rams drafted Sam Bradford.


I'd like to see the numbers...without having to do the work.

I'd say the biggest shift is that big trades are a little more obtainable since the change. It costs...but the costs are more in line with fair value. It used to cost you franchise altering amounts to make a big move.

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Post #: 18
RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/17/2017 9:57:26 AM   
Ian Joseph


Posts: 15462
Joined: 7/15/2007
From: Los Angeles, CA
Status: offline 		Well, to play devil's advocate, how many picks do the Pats have? If they have anywhere close to the amount Cleveland has, they might, at least in this draft. Maybe they take a 2018 pick in addition to what they'd get in return. You never know.

With that being said, I'm talking generalities, not his specific scenario. I haven't gotten that far on my own entry answers.

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RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/17/2017 8:10:39 PM   
kgdabom

 

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Joined: 7/29/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian Joseph

I don't think anybody is arguing that point. A team is not going to trade it's pick without receiving what it feels is fair value. Nor will a team move up without giving what it feels is fair. The point is the trade value chart is not anywhere close to absolute anymore.

Rather than look at our trades, look at a nice sample set of trades over the last five or six years. And then compare it to five or six years prior to when the rookie wage scale went into effect. Your line in the sand is when the Rams drafted Sam Bradford.


I'd like to see the numbers...without having to do the work.

I'd say the biggest shift is that big trades are a little more obtainable since the change. It costs...but the costs are more in line with fair value. It used to cost you franchise altering amounts to make a big move.

I was giving a slightly exaggerated value to the Vikings, but not IMO outside the realm of possibility. We probably have to give up the earlier 3rd to make that work, but then IMO we have no shot at Mayes.

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Post #: 20
RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/19/2017 9:43:12 PM   
Ian Joseph


Posts: 15462
Joined: 7/15/2007
From: Los Angeles, CA
Status: offline 		Art, WTF is that!? Lolol

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Post #: 21
RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/20/2017 10:09:19 AM   
Guest
 I'm figuring Cleveland is gonna get 2 of those 6 guys.
Rather than guess which 2, I'm all in on each.
Coupled with my bonus points for CLE, I'm hoping to come out of that part of the challenge in good shape.

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RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/20/2017 10:14:40 AM   
Tom Sykes


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Art

I'm figuring Cleveland is gonna get 2 of those 6 guys.
Rather than guess which 2, I'm all in on each.
Coupled with my bonus points for CLE, I'm hoping to come out of that part of the challenge in good shape.

I thought you were just trying to be funny.

That is actually diabolically clever ...
Post #: 23
RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/20/2017 11:15:37 AM   
Ian Joseph


Posts: 15462
Joined: 7/15/2007
From: Los Angeles, CA
Status: offline 		Good luck with that.

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Post #: 24
RE: 2017 Draft Prediction Challenge - 4/20/2017 9:04:25 PM   
Ian Joseph


Posts: 15462
Joined: 7/15/2007
From: Los Angeles, CA
Status: offline 		Nice! Nfl.com has the new helmet graphics for the Rams and Lions. Get to input them into my spreadsheet. Geekcited.

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