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RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/17/2017 7:09:25 PM   
shakeywalton

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: McMurfy

quote:

ORIGINAL: shakeywalton

Watching some tape on Isaac, Monk, Markkanen and Dennis Smith Jr. and I'm now fully on board with Dennis Smith Jr. if he's there.

Could be the best PG in the draft.



Might be our last chance to address PG, long term.
But what then of Dunn?

I'm OK with BPA, if no Isaac, then Smith if he's BPA,
but then you have to move Rubio or Dunn or both.

Is there a market or fair value market for those two?
I ask because I don't know, but I have my doubts on that.


I think Rubio will be moved.

Dunn can play both SG/PG.

Tyus IMO can handle the backup PG duties and excel at it.

Watch some of this kid..... in reality once visits are over, he may not last until #7.

Game tape against Duke: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dInkJ0CzYpo

Draft Profile tape: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzyJSoGea00
Post #: 201
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/17/2017 7:09:51 PM   
Elliot


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quote:

ORIGINAL: shakeywalton

Watching some tape on Isaac, Monk, Markkanen and Dennis Smith Jr. and I'm now fully on board with Dennis Smith Jr. if he's there.

Could be the best PG in the draft.

Maybe he is the best PG in the draft.

Not sure which tapes you watched. But I watched some too. His highlights were impressive. As always, his failures were as expected. But then I watched it all again and watched where he ignored the open man and watched the body language of his teammates. Not sure a lot of those guys liked playing with him.

Not the end all, be all. But something to think about.

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Post #: 202
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/17/2017 7:15:23 PM   
McMurfy


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Watched one minute of tape......he reminds me of Lillard.

Isaac or Smith as the back up pick works for me.

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Post #: 203
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/17/2017 7:18:38 PM   
shakeywalton

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: McMurfy

Watched one minute of tape......he reminds me of Lillard.

Isaac or Smith as the back up pick works for me.


Lilard would be unbelievable.

The player he reminds me of is Eric Bledsoe.
Post #: 204
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/17/2017 7:20:25 PM   
David Levine


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I don't see Smith as a Thibs player. Totally disinterested in defense.

I could see Thibs absolutely loving Fox, but I don't see any way he makes it to 7.
Post #: 205
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/17/2017 7:43:57 PM   
shakeywalton

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

I don't see Smith as a Thibs player. Totally disinterested in defense.

I could see Thibs absolutely loving Fox, but I don't see any way he makes it to 7.


I like Fox as well. Much better than Ball IMO.

I just think Smith shows that 'Bulldog' mentality along with the athleticism that Thibs would love.

After looking at more tapes, I can see the intrigue for a guy like Zach Collins as well IF, and ONLY IF he does well in his Wolves workout. A big defensive C/PF could cure a lot of defensive issues. I know it will take time but we have time and you can't coach size.
Post #: 206
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/17/2017 7:48:29 PM   
David Levine


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quote:

ORIGINAL: shakeywalton

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

I don't see Smith as a Thibs player. Totally disinterested in defense.

I could see Thibs absolutely loving Fox, but I don't see any way he makes it to 7.


I like Fox as well. Much better than Ball IMO.

I just think Smith shows that 'Bulldog' mentality along with the athleticism that Thibs would love.

After looking at more tapes, I can see the intrigue for a guy like Zach Collins as well IF, and ONLY IF he does well in his Wolves workout. A big defensive C/PF could cure a lot of defensive issues. I know it will take time but we have time and you can't coach size.


I like Collins a lot, but the only way I take him is if it looks like he can defend out on the perimeter, and I'm afraid that he won't be good there.

As much as I don't like drafting for fit on a mediocre team, I think when you're drafting a guy to play next to Towns, you absolutely need to consider it.
Post #: 207
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/17/2017 7:58:31 PM   
shakeywalton

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: shakeywalton

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

I don't see Smith as a Thibs player. Totally disinterested in defense.

I could see Thibs absolutely loving Fox, but I don't see any way he makes it to 7.


I like Fox as well. Much better than Ball IMO.

I just think Smith shows that 'Bulldog' mentality along with the athleticism that Thibs would love.

After looking at more tapes, I can see the intrigue for a guy like Zach Collins as well IF, and ONLY IF he does well in his Wolves workout. A big defensive C/PF could cure a lot of defensive issues. I know it will take time but we have time and you can't coach size.


I like Collins a lot, but the only way I take him is if it looks like he can defend out on the perimeter, and I'm afraid that he won't be good there.

As much as I don't like drafting for fit on a mediocre team, I think when you're drafting a guy to play next to Towns, you absolutely need to consider it.


I agree David and right now I'm just looking at tape. It's all we have.

Collins: Not a lot of tape on the kid but his size and defense could go along way for us. If I was Thibs I'd have Townes in for his workout and have them go against each other.

Smith: Something about him. He doesn't seem scared and has that bulldogs/confidence without the arrogance thing going. He's incredibly strong and athletic.

Isaac is still intriguing but the bust potential still worries me some.

I haven't looked as close yet on Monk or Markkenan but will give my opinion when I do.
Post #: 208
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/17/2017 9:04:29 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: shakeywalton

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: shakeywalton

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

I don't see Smith as a Thibs player. Totally disinterested in defense.

I could see Thibs absolutely loving Fox, but I don't see any way he makes it to 7.


I like Fox as well. Much better than Ball IMO.

I just think Smith shows that 'Bulldog' mentality along with the athleticism that Thibs would love.

After looking at more tapes, I can see the intrigue for a guy like Zach Collins as well IF, and ONLY IF he does well in his Wolves workout. A big defensive C/PF could cure a lot of defensive issues. I know it will take time but we have time and you can't coach size.


I like Collins a lot, but the only way I take him is if it looks like he can defend out on the perimeter, and I'm afraid that he won't be good there.

As much as I don't like drafting for fit on a mediocre team, I think when you're drafting a guy to play next to Towns, you absolutely need to consider it.


I agree David and right now I'm just looking at tape. It's all we have.

Collins: Not a lot of tape on the kid but his size and defense could go along way for us. If I was Thibs I'd have Townes in for his workout and have them go against each other.

Smith: Something about him. He doesn't seem scared and has that bulldogs/confidence without the arrogance thing going. He's incredibly strong and athletic.

Isaac is still intriguing but the bust potential still worries me some.

I haven't looked as close yet on Monk or Markkenan but will give my opinion when I do.

I will go on record that Markannen will bust. He is SAWFT!!! Can't get a rebound or block a shot. His IMO absolute ceiling is Channing Frye.

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Post #: 209
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/17/2017 9:07:50 PM   
SoMnFan


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This Markannen kid is starting to intrigue me ....
Post #: 210
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/18/2017 8:00:38 AM   
shakeywalton

 

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Another intriguing comparison some are making for Dennis Smith Jr. is Russell Westbrook.

Here's a good read from the Knicks side hoping he slides to #8:

http://nypost.com/2017/05/17/the-russell-westbrook-type-whose-red-flags-can-make-him-a-knick/
Post #: 211
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/18/2017 10:33:19 AM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: shakeywalton

quote:

ORIGINAL: McMurfy

quote:

ORIGINAL: shakeywalton

Watching some tape on Isaac, Monk, Markkanen and Dennis Smith Jr. and I'm now fully on board with Dennis Smith Jr. if he's there.

Could be the best PG in the draft.



Might be our last chance to address PG, long term.
But what then of Dunn?

I'm OK with BPA, if no Isaac, then Smith if he's BPA,
but then you have to move Rubio or Dunn or both.

Is there a market or fair value market for those two?
I ask because I don't know, but I have my doubts on that.


I think Rubio will be moved.

Dunn can play both SG/PG.

Tyus IMO can handle the backup PG duties and excel at it.

Watch some of this kid..... in reality once visits are over, he may not last until #7.

Game tape against Duke: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dInkJ0CzYpo

Draft Profile tape: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzyJSoGea00

Yes Dunn can play both PG and SG. So can I. Can either of us play them well? Nope.

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Post #: 212
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/18/2017 10:39:50 AM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: SoMnFan

This Markannen kid is starting to intrigue me ....


I knew somebody would love him after I told how bad he is. He is horrible. Be intrigued all you want.

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Post #: 213
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/18/2017 11:07:41 AM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: shakeywalton

Another intriguing comparison some are making for Dennis Smith Jr. is Russell Westbrook.

Here's a good read from the Knicks side hoping he slides to #8:

http://nypost.com/2017/05/17/the-russell-westbrook-type-whose-red-flags-can-make-him-a-knick/

My best comparison for Westbrook is a runaway freight train. He just goes and heaven help whoever gets in his way.

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Post #: 214
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/18/2017 4:03:55 PM   
Sandman

 

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I've been on the Isaac bandwagon. I'm jumping over to the Smith bandwagon. He has a little crazy in him. I like that.
Post #: 215
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/18/2017 4:10:00 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sandman

I've been on the Isaac bandwagon. I'm jumping over to the Smith bandwagon. He has a little crazy in him. I like that.

Smith sounds interesting. The problem is we already have a very good in his prime PG in Rubio and a hopefully good/improving backup in Dunn. The need is still greater for a guy like Isaac.

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RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/18/2017 6:15:50 PM   
shakeywalton

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sandman

I've been on the Isaac bandwagon. I'm jumping over to the Smith bandwagon. He has a little crazy in him. I like that.

Smith sounds interesting. The problem is we already have a very good in his prime PG in Rubio and a hopefully good/improving backup in Dunn. The need is still greater for a guy like Isaac.


Didn't you just say you're just as good/bad as Dunn?
Post #: 217
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/18/2017 6:16:33 PM   
shakeywalton

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

Yes Dunn can play both PG and SG. So can I. Can either of us play them well? Nope.


?????
Post #: 218
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/19/2017 10:08:35 AM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: shakeywalton

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sandman

I've been on the Isaac bandwagon. I'm jumping over to the Smith bandwagon. He has a little crazy in him. I like that.

Smith sounds interesting. The problem is we already have a very good in his prime PG in Rubio and a hopefully good/improving backup in Dunn. The need is still greater for a guy like Isaac.


Didn't you just say you're just as good/bad as Dunn?

As of the last season Dunn was comparatively to NBA talent bad at both PG and SG. I like Dunn am also bad, but there are levels of bad . I'm still hopeful regarding Dunn, but I'm also realistic.

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Post #: 219
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/19/2017 10:51:01 AM   
Ian Joseph


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I'm very curious.. where do you all feel the Wolves are as a team?

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Post #: 220
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/19/2017 11:40:32 AM   
David Levine


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian Joseph

I'm very curious.. where do you all feel the Wolves are as a team?


Close to being good. The kids need to learn to stick with the plan on defense instead of defaulting to bad habits. Thibs will get them there.

Towns is a legit superstar, but we really need to add a modern PF that can defend in space and a bigger wing would be nice as well.

---------

Some stuff from another board from someone that appears to have some inside sources. As with anything of this nature, a big grain of salt should be taken:

I had the chance this morning to catch up with some folks who know a lot about the inner workings of our beloved Timberwolves organization. I didn't learn anything earth-shattering and I assumed they wouldn't tell me everything they know. But here are a few highlights you might find interesting:

Thibs is in complete charge of everything related to basketball operations. Scott Layden does exploratory work -- making and fielding phone calls from other teams about possible deals, etc., but he has no freedom to make any decisions or even tentative decisions. Everything goes through Thibs and he makes up his own mind.

A few more interesting things about Thibs: (a) He is extremely numbers driven, relying a lot on advanced stats and analytics. (b) He works constantly, at least 13 hours a day; has sleeping room with a futon in the Wolves offices and often sleeps there. (c) He is a totally different person in practices than the guy we see and hear on the bench in games. He is steady, conversational and cerebral; no screaming or shouting. He's more like the guy we see in interviews.

Thibs has been watching playoff games incessantly and is texting back and forth with KAT, Wiggins and others discussing things about those games.
Thibs is even more convinced watching the playoffs that our absolute #1 priority has to be improved 3-point shooting. His second priority is a defensive SF. Shot-blocking is #3.

Thibs still intends to build around KAT, Wiggins and Zach -- none of those three will be traded. Ricky might be traded, but Thibs is genuinely impressed by Ricky's late-season improvement. Nonetheless, he's the most likely to be traded, but Thibs isn't looking to move him.

The Rose deal was nixed by Thibs. Wasn't nearly as close as hyped in the media. I found that reassuring. The idea brought to Thibs was to make the trade as a way of freeing up additional cap space -- no intent of keeping Rose beyond this past season.

I asked about 3-point shooting versus defense. First of all, Thibs really wants to get a defensive wing. So it's not like that isn't near the top of his priority list. But he sees the 3-point shot as so critical to winning in the NBA today. He was telling the guys I talked to about how important 3-point shooting was in the League this past season and how it is proving even more decisive in the playoffs. He pointed out that, even though our three-point shooting improved over the previous year we were near the bottom of the League in that category. As you surmised, Thibs also stills sees great defensive potential in KAT and Wiggins. Apparently, Thibs has been talking a lot with Wiggins about emulating much of what Leonard does defensively. One thing in particular is how Leonard lets guys get by him and then quickly catches them from behind to block their shots. Thibs thinks that's something Wiggins can and should do with his quickness, hops and long arms.

Apparently, Thibs runs very disciplined practices (no surprise there). He and the entire coaching staff were really surprised when they first got here at how lacking KAT, Wiggins and LaVine were in the fundamentals of defense. So he and the coaching staff have been running the same drills and preaching the same things consistently in every practice. But to Thibs' dismay, those guys continue to revert to bad habits in games. One of the issues the coaching staff has with KAT is that he often sets himself up for defensive rebounds too early rather than closing out on shooters or filling the lane -- like Kevin Love used to do when he was here. The coaching staff doesn't think any of this is because KAT and Wiggins don't want to play on the defensive end or aren't listening to the coaching staff. They think it's old habits that they just haven't shaken yet. But Thibs apparently said he's going to figure out what he can do differently to turn these guys and the entire team around defensively. And not surprisingly, Thibs raves a lot about Dunn, who will be working all summer with a shooting coach.

< Message edited by David Levine -- 5/19/2017 12:56:41 PM >
Post #: 221
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/19/2017 1:07:17 PM   
David Levine


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Nylon Calculus: Projecting 3-point shooting for 2017 NBA Draft prospects
by Andrew Johnson, 1 hour ago

A good deal has been said about the elite 2017 NBA Draft class, and my own models seem to confirm that. Both Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball project as elite players, and there are two other players rated as well as last year’s No. 2, pick Brandon Ingram. But interestingly, in an era where 3-point shooting becomes ever more important, the top of this class isn’t loaded with elite 3-point shooting, at least according to my projections.

A few years ago I introduced a model for translating 3-point shooting into a projection for NBA percentages. That the post was named “Predictions are Hard: Especially About Three Point Shooting,” should give you an idea of the success of the model. Still, the results are a significant improvement on expecting a player’s 3-point percentage to translate directly, and relatively straightforward to understand and apply.

The basic elements are the player’s free throw percentage, 3-point shooting frequency and 3-point percentage. So, for example, Fultz and Lauri Markkanen both hit about 42 percent of their 3-pointers in college, but it was the big man Markkanen who hit 78 percent of his free throws to Fultz’s 65 percent and Markkanen who attempted 3s more often. So the models expect Markkanen to hit 38 percent of his 3-pointers at the next level and Fultz to hit 34 to 35 percent. The four percentage point gap may not seem like much, but it’s the difference between 1.14 points per shot and 1.02 points per shot.

Below are my projections for some of the top prospects for the first round in this year’s draft.



http://fansided.com/2017/05/19/nylon-calculus-projecting-3-point-shooting-2017-nba-draft-prospects/
Post #: 222
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/19/2017 5:12:54 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 16692
Joined: 7/29/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian Joseph

I'm very curious.. where do you all feel the Wolves are as a team?


Close to being good. The kids need to learn to stick with the plan on defense instead of defaulting to bad habits. Thibs will get them there.

Towns is a legit superstar, but we really need to add a modern PF that can defend in space and a bigger wing would be nice as well.

---------

Some stuff from another board from someone that appears to have some inside sources. As with anything of this nature, a big grain of salt should be taken:

I had the chance this morning to catch up with some folks who know a lot about the inner workings of our beloved Timberwolves organization. I didn't learn anything earth-shattering and I assumed they wouldn't tell me everything they know. But here are a few highlights you might find interesting:

Thibs is in complete charge of everything related to basketball operations. Scott Layden does exploratory work -- making and fielding phone calls from other teams about possible deals, etc., but he has no freedom to make any decisions or even tentative decisions. Everything goes through Thibs and he makes up his own mind.

A few more interesting things about Thibs: (a) He is extremely numbers driven, relying a lot on advanced stats and analytics. (b) He works constantly, at least 13 hours a day; has sleeping room with a futon in the Wolves offices and often sleeps there. (c) He is a totally different person in practices than the guy we see and hear on the bench in games. He is steady, conversational and cerebral; no screaming or shouting. He's more like the guy we see in interviews.

Thibs has been watching playoff games incessantly and is texting back and forth with KAT, Wiggins and others discussing things about those games.
Thibs is even more convinced watching the playoffs that our absolute #1 priority has to be improved 3-point shooting. His second priority is a defensive SF. Shot-blocking is #3.

Thibs still intends to build around KAT, Wiggins and Zach -- none of those three will be traded. Ricky might be traded, but Thibs is genuinely impressed by Ricky's late-season improvement. Nonetheless, he's the most likely to be traded, but Thibs isn't looking to move him.

The Rose deal was nixed by Thibs. Wasn't nearly as close as hyped in the media. I found that reassuring. The idea brought to Thibs was to make the trade as a way of freeing up additional cap space -- no intent of keeping Rose beyond this past season.

I asked about 3-point shooting versus defense. First of all, Thibs really wants to get a defensive wing. So it's not like that isn't near the top of his priority list. But he sees the 3-point shot as so critical to winning in the NBA today. He was telling the guys I talked to about how important 3-point shooting was in the League this past season and how it is proving even more decisive in the playoffs. He pointed out that, even though our three-point shooting improved over the previous year we were near the bottom of the League in that category. As you surmised, Thibs also stills sees great defensive potential in KAT and Wiggins. Apparently, Thibs has been talking a lot with Wiggins about emulating much of what Leonard does defensively. One thing in particular is how Leonard lets guys get by him and then quickly catches them from behind to block their shots. Thibs thinks that's something Wiggins can and should do with his quickness, hops and long arms.

Apparently, Thibs runs very disciplined practices (no surprise there). He and the entire coaching staff were really surprised when they first got here at how lacking KAT, Wiggins and LaVine were in the fundamentals of defense. So he and the coaching staff have been running the same drills and preaching the same things consistently in every practice. But to Thibs' dismay, those guys continue to revert to bad habits in games. One of the issues the coaching staff has with KAT is that he often sets himself up for defensive rebounds too early rather than closing out on shooters or filling the lane -- like Kevin Love used to do when he was here. The coaching staff doesn't think any of this is because KAT and Wiggins don't want to play on the defensive end or aren't listening to the coaching staff. They think it's old habits that they just haven't shaken yet. But Thibs apparently said he's going to figure out what he can do differently to turn these guys and the entire team around defensively. And not surprisingly, Thibs raves a lot about Dunn, who will be working all summer with a shooting coach.

If you believe this then The Wolves will draft Monk if he is available. If he isn't they might target Markannen.

< Message edited by kgdabom -- 5/19/2017 5:14:00 PM >


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Post #: 223
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/19/2017 6:21:26 PM   
djskillz


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Personally, Dennis Smith has been my guy for a loooong time now. I just love the way he plays and I don't understand how he gets knocked for how NC State did this year but Fultz gets a pass for how UW did this year. To me he's my #1 player in this draft. Reminds me more of Chris Paul (Wake Forest Chris Paul) than any player I can ever remember. I think Magic Johnson is the greatest player that ever lived and there will never be another Magic while there will always be more guys "like" Jordan (Kobe, etc.), but Chris Paul may be the best "pure"/traditional PG of all time in terms of talent. There are just no real holes to his game; defense, shooting, passing, leadership, etc. Smith may need some refinement for consistency (he's 19), but he is that same guy to me. Even the way he moves reminds me so much of CP3, who's been my favorite player in the world since he entered the league. I'll never get over the NBA's ridiculous trade veto.

I also want no part of Ball. He may work out, but man he is SUCH a risk to me. I don't think he fits today's game at all. He can't defend, he can't drive great, he's not super athletic, and he's got one of the ugliest shots I've ever seen. People also seem to have some notion that he "led" UCLA like Magic led the Lakers or something. That team was just as loaded as UK's team for Fox, and Fox destroyed him twice. I want no part of him, at all. His dad's insanity is just gravy on that reject letter for me.

I still like Giles an awful lot too. High risk, but pure talent he still may be the best player in the draft. He certainly would have been the no-brainer pick before the ACL tear, and he can get back to that. Showed glimpses at Duke for sure. Just needs health.

My order for the draft is way different than most, but I think it'd be along the lines of:

DSmith
Jackson
Tatum
Fultz
Fox
Isaac
Giles






Ball



For the Lakers, I view everyone as expendable other than Zubac, and to a lesser extent Ingram/Nance in terms of value. I think they and the Celtics are both at a similar spot; lots of "good" players but no great ones (no, Thomas is not a great player). Have to cash those chips in while there is still "potential". There's no way it happens, but in an ideal world I'd try to pull something like:

Trade Russell, Randle, Clarkson, and a pick to the Bulls for Butler
Sign Hayward or wait a year and sign George (he'll come home if they want him; he wants to)
Trade down 2-3 spots and take Smith
Use some of that ammo and another asset to trade up from the Houston pick to the teens and get Giles.

New team:
PG-Smith, 2G-Butler, 3-Hayward (or George in a year), 4-Giles, 5-Zubac. Bench: Ingram, Nance

That team starts to look pretty dangerous pretty quickly IMO.

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"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
Post #: 224
RE: 2017 NBA Draft - 5/19/2017 6:52:38 PM   
djskillz


Posts: 57132
Joined: 7/17/2007
From: Nashville, TN
Status: offline
And I should add, this doesn't happen because Magic is in charge. No bigger Magic fan in the world than me, but man, I hated that move for him in the front office. I don't see it ending well at all. I was hoping Jerry West, the greatest sports executive that ever lived, who built the Lakers twice, Grizzlies, and Warriors, could be convinced back to the fold to end his career with the franchise he loves. Especially now that the asshole Phil Jackson is out of Jeanie's life. But no....

Oh well.

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"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
Post #: 225
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