From: United Federation of Planets
ORIGINAL: David F.
Love seeing young coaches do things out of the norm
The Rams are this year's Eagles
Going for it, to run the clock out. How innovative. Players love that.
The game itself needs a lot more of this thinking.
I could imagine old-timers all over the country having heart attacks during that final sequence. Loved it. Hoping for more of it.
It was a smart and cool decision because it worked. If it failed it very well could have cost the Rams the game. and everybody would be wondering wtf McVay was thinking.
There is a very fine line between courage and insanity.
But if they punt and the other team scores and wins that's just fine because it's conventional?
If they punt they make the other team drive a lot farther, use timeouts if they have any left, and get into postion to win. If they go for it and fail the other team is nearly in FG range already. I take my chances that my defense can keep them out of FG range from a longer distance. Probability is higher that way.
It was a gutsy move by McVay, I'm not against it. but I wouldn't make it a habit as it will lead to more losses in the long run. If it becomes the norm Defenses will be prepared for it.
FWIW. Peter King has added a section on analytics.
• Week 5, Seahawks at Rams, Los Angeles ball, fourth-and-one (actually fourth-and-a-foot, but PFF doesn’t account for feet or inches—only yards) at their own 42, fourth quarter, 1:39 left, Rams up 33-31. Conversion percentage: 78.2 percent. Chance of winning if they convert: 99.9 percent. (They’d simply run out the clock.) Here’s the key, and it’s why—even though I wrote last week about what a smart call it was by Sean McVay—that it actually was overwhelmingly the smart call by McVay to go for it even if the play failed: The Rams’ chance to win the game was still 59.7 percent if they didn’t convert and handed the ball back to Seattle with no timeouts left and a questionable kicker in Janikowski (who’d made six of nine this year at that point). In other words, PFF still believed it was more likely than not that handing the ball back to Russell Wilson on a short field would have resulted in a Rams win.
The win percentage probability drops over 40% if the play fails...
And what the analytics are saying is that McVay may appear gutsy when in reality it took no guts at all to call that play....None. It would have, per analytics, been more gutsy to punt.
And this is why analytics has no place here.
Just like in baseball.
All of us are entitled to our own opinion. None of us are entitled to our own facts. - Daniel Patrick Moynahan and Alan Page