TJSweens
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Interesting case to be made for rolling with Yurov...
Danila Yurov's Big Shot Remains Intact For Now
By Tony Abbott - Wednesday at 05:13 PM
With the calendar about to flip into August, it's mildly surprising that Danila Yurov remains a member of the Minnesota Wild. The reasons have little to do with Yurov, of course. He had his ups and downs in his rookie season, but it was a solid campaign. It's simply that for a team that continues to want to go all-in for a Stanley Cup, Yurov happens to be one of the Wild's most valuable remaining assets.
So when Dylan Larkin wants to force his way out of the Detroit Red Wings, the natural assumption is that Detroit will want a young center like Yurov in return. It's hard to see a world where the Wild land any of the NHL's big fish without parting with Yurov.
But for now, Larkin isn't walking into St. Paul. Nor is Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes, or any of the star centers the Wild would love to get their hands on. Until that day arrives (if ever), Yurov has a shot to prove that he can be the center the team is looking for.
The reason Yurov is a candidate to be moved is the same as his opportunity being wide open: Minnesota doesn't have a proven center to partner with superstar Kirill Kaprizov. Their options are either to load up the top line, trade for someone like Larkin, or work with what they've got.
Congratulations, Yurov: You're what they've got.
That's not necessarily a bad thing, despite The Athletic ranking Minnesota's top-six centers (Yurov and Joel Eriksson Ek) 27th of 32 teams. Yurov's production (12 goals, 27 points) wasn't top-six worthy last season, but looking at his point total almost misses the point of his rookie season. He wasn't being asked to carry the offense or given a role that would enable him to put up numbers. The point was to ease a 21-year-old from Chelyabinsk into his first taste of North American hockey.
Mission accomplished. Yurov started the season out with healthy scratches and limited ice time, and ended it as Minnesota's third-line center. John Hynes didn't have to manage Yurov too closely down the stretch. He'd roll a regular shift and play so reliably that the coach didn't have to think anything of putting his rookie on the ice.
Ironically, it's Yurov's defensive foundation that is the strongest indicator of a future breakout. We're gonna have to get a bit nerdy to show how. Let's start with Evolving-Hockey's Goals Above Replacement. Yurov's even-strength defense was worth 3.7 GAR last year -- or about 1.4 points in the standings -- by itself.
Is that good? Yup. Yurov's mark is tied for 17th among all forwards in their age-21 season since 2007-08. Some of the players in the top-20 with Yurov were already two-way superstars: Jonathan Toews, Brayden Point, Nicklas Backstrom. But for others, their solid defense hinted at the offensive potential to come.
Brock Nelson is one great example. Like Yurov, Nelson's age-21 season was also his rookie year, and the results were eerily similar. They had similar point totals (14 goals, 26 points in 72 games) and ice time (14:16 for Nelson, 13:18 for Yurov). But despite middling offensive showings, Nelson also showed elite defense early.
Fast-forward one year, and Nelson had his first of 10 (and counting) 20-goal seasons. Nelson has been a top-six center ever since.
Another instance of a breakout following a top defensive season was David Krejčí's rookie year. Krejčí debuted for the Boston Bruins in 2007-08, where his most frequent linemates were a second-year Phil Kessel and rookie Milan Lucic. Despite that talent, Krejčí scored just six goals and 27 points in 56 games. But again, Krejčí played elite defense.
Krejčí blew up in his second year, scoring 22 goals and 73 points as he centered the second line for the Eastern Conference-best Bruins. From that point on in his career, Krejčí scored 64.3 points per 82 games.
That Nelson and Krejčí were rookies makes the comparison to Yurov as clean as possible. Still, we can find more instances of high-end defense predicting high-end offense. The top-30 in Even-Strength Defensive GAR includes pre-breakout stars like Matt Boldy, Sam Reinhart, and Alex Tuch. It also predicted the growth of Jackson Blake, Aliaksei Protas, and Teuvo Teravainen into bona fide top-six forwards.
It makes sense. If you're doing the right things on the defensive side of the puck, it will lead to more offense, so long as you have the skills to take advantage. Yurov has a projectable frame (6-foot-1), speed, and good hands. The missing factor appears to be opportunity.
What better spot is there for a young NHL center than alongside Kaprizov? It's not just that Kaprizov is one of the five best goal-scorers in the game, but he's also an elite playmaker who makes opportunities for his teammates. This is the guy who made Ryan Hartman a 30-goal scorer, the player who helped Mats Zuccarello be a point-per-game player for most of his mid-to-late 30s.
If Yurov has more playmaking chops than he had last year, Kaprizov will make those passes count. If Yurov has to go to the net and score goals the Eriksson Ek/Marco Rossi way, Kaprizov can also maximize that.
Whether or not a Nelson or Krejčí-level breakout is enough to make Yurov untouchable in Minnesota is an open question. It also doesn't matter, from Yurov's standpoint. Until Yurov's name goes through to the NHL's central registry, he has a chance to boost his career in a spot that looks an awful lot like a launching pad.
Whether he's trying to lock down the gig as Kaprizov's partner for the next decade or auditioning for his next team, this upcoming season is going to be his best shot to put himself on the map.
_____________________________
"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
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