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The Happy Norseman -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/6/2020 12:09:55 PM)
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ORIGINAL: kgdabom
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ORIGINAL: The Happy Norseman
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ORIGINAL: jbusse
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ORIGINAL: The Happy Norseman
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ORIGINAL: kgdabom
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ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson
The more I look at the first-round of the #NFLDraft the more it appears that no OL, CB, and probably DL will be worth drafting at 22 or 25 for the #Vikings Sad.
(Warren Ludford on Twitter)
That's utterly ridiculous.
Agreed. Having looked at a lot of mock drafts and prospect rankings it has become apparent (to me at least) that the Vikings best bet to find instant impact players at their greatest positions of need in this years draft is to draft in this order:
1st Rd - CB and DT
2nd Rd - WR
3rd Rd - OG
The top 3 WR's will be gone before the Vikings pick. There's a drop off to the next level with a ton of WR's bunched together in ability. Of course, if CeeDee Lamb falls to the Vikings you sprint to the (virtual) stage, but it's not happening. Likewise, DT's Derrick Brown and probably Javon Kinlaw will be gone before we pick. If Kinlaw somehow falls, again that's a no-brainer first pick. However, with the DT's there appear to be only 4, maybe 5 that set themselves apart from the second level. At least on paper. If the Vikings wait until the 2nd round to pick a DT they will likely be gone. Regarding CB's there appears to be 1 elite guys in Okudah, a close second in CJ Henderson, 3 extremely talented prospects, then a large group of guys with bigger question marks. Considering the value of the position, if the Vikings wait until the second round they're going to be looking through that group of prospects with the bigger question marks. Finally, regarding Oline, we all know that the Vikings need to continue shoring up their oline, but after the big 4 (that will be gone before we draft) there's a drop off. We need an OT for the future, but not at the expense of an OG for right now. Someone like Josh Jones (OT), who many have mocked to the Vikings might help, but according to his scouting report he's going to need some real work before he's starter material, which means he won't be replacing Reiff right away if at all. Additionally, 1st round OT's have often struggled mightily their first year in the league. Meanwhile, the OG rankings are all over the place, meaning there's no consensus stud this year. Spielman is as likely to strike gold in the 3rd round as he is in the first. Something that is less likely to occur at the other positions in the draft.
That said, watch RS pick WR, LB, RB, QB with his first 4 picks...
In the linked video posted earlier, Florio advocated for OL with both 1st round picks. He makes the argument that Cousins is much better with protection, which of course is true. I'm so tired of Elflein getting pushed around that I'd be extremely disappointed if we don't go OL with at least one of our 1st round picks. Hopefully they're getting a good read on whether Bradbury is going to make significant improvement because if he doesn't that interior OL needs a major infusion of talent.
I don't disagree that the Vikings need continued help on the o-line (what else is new), just that the value isn't there taking them in the 1st round. For example, Josh Jones (OT) is often mocked to the Vikings. Here's a quick blurb on him:
"But Jones' skills need significant polish from the ground up — he's still raw with his pass sets and footwork and can be too reactive in live action to over-set or over-pursue. Ideally he can be weaned into a starting role in the NFL."
That doesn't sound like a guy who's going to come in and replace Reiff at LT. Compare that to Nick Harris or Ben Breedeson, both OG's who are expected to go in the late 3rd round.
Harris - "While he isn’t the most physically dominant run blocker and his anchor can be compromised in pass protection, Harris is highly competitive, technically-sound and his functional mobility is impressive. He may be a scheme-specific prospect, but he has the makings of a starter in the right offense in time."
Breedeson - "There appears to be enough versatility to project Bredeson into a number of concepts and systems, although his functional power and ability to reset the LOS should have him coveted highest on boards that implement primarily gap/power rushing concepts. Bredeson, if able to work on getting his initial hand strikes to stick on defenders with more consistency, would be a quality starter and asset up front."
On paper, drafting Jones will help us next year when he can replace Reiff, versus a guy like Harris or Breedeson who could compete for a starting job on day one. We're also missing out on the top rated DT and CB's if we go OL with our first 2 picks. Again, this is all on paper. For all I know, drafting 2 offensive linemen in the 1st will end up working out perfectly for us this year. But the scouting reports would indicate that we get the most bang for our buck at multiple positions if we go a different route.
Anyway, I'm just happy that there is something sports related to spend some time thinking about. Watching reruns of PGA tournaments just isn't cutting it for me anymore...
With Jones you posted the one most negative post related to him. I have read about how he has been improving by leaps and bounds and totally dominated at the senior bowl and was excellent at the combine. Tackle is a more premium position and that is part of why he is rated a round or more ahead of the good guards that you mentioned. I'm not good at knowing why some guards are only guards and some tackles are only tackles, but I have read that Jones is a type that can play either so he could come in and start at a guard spot this year and replace Reiff in a year or two. Win/Win and I would be happy if Jones is one of our first round picks.
That said I'm with you that two OL in the first is probably one too many. We have enough needs that we should be able to take a mostly BPA approach.
Actually, I just posted the summary of Jones. Here's another summary, this one from Zierlein:
"Early tape would suggest that Jones is a raw, developmental project in need of substantial technique work, but tape study later in the season suggests a level of improvement that creates additional intrigue for the long, athletic left tackle prospect. To be clear, he needs plenty of work with his pass sets and footwork, but most of his issues appear to be coachable. He's a good fit for a move-oriented rushing attack and has the traits and talent to become a future starter if he continues to develop with coaching."
I'd be thrilled to get an OT that can sit for a year as depth and then replace Reiff next year, and Jones appears to be that guy. My point is that if RS goes that route then he's likely sacrificing the chance to get a better impact player at a different position of need that can start this year. Assuming there is a "this year". We need impact players at so many positions, that as long as RS picks either a DT, WR, CB or OL with the first 2 picks of the draft no one will be able to fault him. Unless of course he goes with a Fran Foley draft strategy...
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