RE: Covid 19 and those infected

RE: Covid 19 and those infected (Full Version)

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TJSweens -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 1:29:59 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: David Levine quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: Todd M I don't care what the #'s are the Stugis get together was complete idiocy and all those who gather in such a fashion are the problem. Why, because it's outside of your little sphere of activities? Maybe they were able to see ahead of the event that the rate of COVID cases for attendees would be well under the national rate for that period of time. No, because cramming 500,000 non socially distanced people into bars, restaurants, hotels and camp grounds in a relatively small area around a small town during a pandemic is just plain f***ing stupid. Anyone not living in the great state of denial can see that clear as day. Again this is not a small area 8,426 mi² encompass the Black Hills. I've been to the event in the past. Bikers are scattered across the entire area. Our group never even went into the town of Sturgis. Oh give it a rest Bill. We have all seen the videos and photos from Sturgis this year. Nobody is buying this fake narrative of all of these people spread out in wide open spaces. They were crammed into pockets within that acreage because a lot of that area is covered in hills with no people on them. You may not have gone into the town, but it's pretty obvious that many thousands did. Ok we''ll accept your distorted version vs a person that has actually been out there during bike week. I'll take actual photo evidence over the word of someone that wasn't even there... [image]https://kutv.com/resources/media/41d20a6c-b4c3-4e97-ae18-918fc1d288b6-large16x9_motorcyclerallyinsturgissouthdakotagettyimages3.jpg[/image] Boy, 8,426 square miles is a lot smaller than I thought.

bohumm -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 1:36:43 PM)
So I know that anytime virus is present in exhaled droplets (in the case of COVID-19), contagion is possible. I also know that asymptomatic transmission happens, though at what level is unknown/in dispute. The likelihood of contagion in all situations, including these, increases tremendously with time, proximity, less dispersal, low/no barriers, and---importantly---viral load. So with less sick people outdoors with distance/barriers/limited time of exposure, there is a small chance of contagion, and as the situation worsens with sicker people with greater viral load indoors without sufficient distance or barriers and more time of exposure, etc, the chances increase dramatically. I looked up what Mark asked about and found discussion about people who still test positive after their illness and symptoms have abated. They are deemed to be non-contagious if enough time has passed beyond initial symptoms, but there is dispute about why they are still testing positive---often amongst negative tests---and whether they are truly past their illness. So Mark's initial premise---that people can test positive but not be contagious---may be correct in this kind of scenario, and maybe others. This virus is hard to fight for reasons specific to the virus itself as well as societal issues from resources/lack thereof to how we view our obligations to each other, the economics of varying degrees of shutdown, etc. Often arguments are justified by reasons amounting to "deaths are mostly limited to old/sick/fat people, so that's OK" all the way to essentially saying levels of morbidity and mortality well south of seasonal flu would still be unacceptable. The discussion/debate has to be more nuanced and specific to this pathogen/pandemic if we are to arrive at pathways out of our situation that actually preserve health as well as they least level of disruption to society and the economy consistent with meeting those health objectives. This isn't an episode of "House" or "Grey's Anatomy," this is real life, and it's real hard.

David Levine -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 1:36:59 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: paulgly I've actually been to the rally four times. I drove through downtown Sturgis this year out of curiosity (in a pickup, windows up). I'd say the crowd was down from where I had seen it in the past but still far, far too many people during a pandemic (I didn't get all that close to the bars in town - just a quick pass through). And some of the bigger events/concerts take place outside of downtown at places like the Buffalo Chip and Full Throttle. I drove past the Full Throttle (probably about 15-20 minutes outside of downtown Sturgis and I'd never seen so many bikes parked as there were this year. And this was a Friday afternoon. It is true that there are a significant number of folks who go to the rally and spend very little if any time downtown. And I don't buy the study that says 250k infected. But that shouldn't distract from the main point that it was still a really, really bad idea. That's the problem with data journalism. The numbers, real or not/exaggerated or not, obfuscate a very basic point: In this case, it was a bad idea to hold a giant motorcycle rally with people all across the country during a pandemic. Instead of addressing that very basic issue that requires very little expertise to understand or diagnose, now everyone is set on the trail of trying to figure out shit that 99.9% of people don’t have the tools to figure out.

David Levine -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 1:41:43 PM)
And since this seems to be a big enough story that literally everyone from CNN to FOX News posted it, and since "I know me" well enough to know I'm out of my league with these kinds of numbers, I asked some friends for their input: Friend 1: How many confirmed cases among attendees? I see 260 as of a week ago. What proportion of actual cases is that? I haven’t been following the latest studies as closely, but I’ll use this july data as a basic framework: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html 40%-70% asymptomatic (I’ll use the upper number and there’s a good chance more people would be infected with mild symptoms and not report it) 6 days between infection and infecting another person R0 2.5 (just to simplify let’s assume all 2.5 infected on day 6 Aug 7-16 (24-33 days ago) – ~4-5 infection periods So say it’s 850 direct infections. That would get us in the neighborhood of 80k cases by now. 2500 cases (i.e. the confirmed cases from a week ago are in the neighborhood of 10% of the actual cases) gets us to 250k. That doesn’t seem outlandish to me, and would represent 0.05% of ~500k attendees becoming infected. That’s roughly in-line with high-transmission states reported new-case rates. Obviously huge error bars on this napkin math, but for a gathering of that many people without great distancing, 250k is certainly in the realm of possibility. Regardless of the actual number, there are almost certainly going to be a meaningful number of extra deaths among non-attendees and strain on the health care system. Friend 2 (responding to Friend 1): I like your math. But let’s say the error bars are large say 20-30% we’d still be talking about 200K cases. To the point, even if it was only 50K cases, it’s a ridiculous outcome in the sense of how bad it is. Putting a dollar value on it moves it into the realm of something most folks can understand, though I am sure the value assigned depends on a ton of assumptions. However, the people who give a crap already know it was an exercise in extreme and wanton stupidity, the people who attended and will end up with COVID don’t care until they end up debilitated or dead, any other outcome is not severe enough to matter.

Bill Johanesen -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 1:45:01 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: Todd M I don't care what the #'s are the Stugis get together was complete idiocy and all those who gather in such a fashion are the problem. Why, because it's outside of your little sphere of activities? Maybe they were able to see ahead of the event that the rate of COVID cases for attendees would be well under the national rate for that period of time. No, because cramming 500,000 non socially distanced people into bars, restaurants, hotels and camp grounds in a relatively small area around a small town during a pandemic is just plain f***ing stupid. Anyone not living in the great state of denial can see that clear as day. Again this is not a small area 8,426 mi² encompass the Black Hills. I've been to the event in the past. Bikers are scattered across the entire area. Our group never even went into the town of Sturgis. Oh give it a rest Bill. We have all seen the videos and photos from Sturgis this year. Nobody is buying this fake narrative of all of these people spread out in wide open spaces. They were crammed into pockets within that acreage because a lot of that area is covered in hills with no people on them. You may not have gone into the town, but it's pretty obvious that many thousands did. Ok we''ll accept your distorted version vs a person that has actually been out there during bike week. You were outside of town so how would you know? Almost as bad as ewen getting off the wrong subway stop and suddenly he becomes an expert on ghetto life in NYC.

Brad H -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 1:52:28 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: David Levine quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: Todd M I don't care what the #'s are the Stugis get together was complete idiocy and all those who gather in such a fashion are the problem. Why, because it's outside of your little sphere of activities? Maybe they were able to see ahead of the event that the rate of COVID cases for attendees would be well under the national rate for that period of time. No, because cramming 500,000 non socially distanced people into bars, restaurants, hotels and camp grounds in a relatively small area around a small town during a pandemic is just plain f**ing stupid. Anyone not living in the great state of denial can see that clear as day. Even though the rate of COVID cases for Sturgis attendees is well under the national rate for that period of time. I'm sure that's the truth in your Faux News world. If you really and truly believe that to be the truth, I have some choice properties to sell you. There is the orange grove I own in northern Canada or of course a couple of choice bridges in New York. Explain only 1 COVID death among 400,000+ Sturgis attendees. Do you think people that die from COVID just drop dead as soon as they get it? • Sturgis began 34 days ago. • The incubation period for COVID is 2-14 days. Average is around 1 week. • It takes about one week to become severely ill after getting symptoms*. • A day-to-day breakdown of Coronovirus symptoms puts death at close to 20 days after symptoms appear. What I was saying was, how does he know there's only been one death? Has he conducted an interview with all 460k people? Or is he possibly relying on newspapers, which would be a weird twist of fate?

Bill Johanesen -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 1:53:26 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Brad H quote: ORIGINAL: David Levine quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: Todd M I don't care what the #'s are the Stugis get together was complete idiocy and all those who gather in such a fashion are the problem. Why, because it's outside of your little sphere of activities? Maybe they were able to see ahead of the event that the rate of COVID cases for attendees would be well under the national rate for that period of time. No, because cramming 500,000 non socially distanced people into bars, restaurants, hotels and camp grounds in a relatively small area around a small town during a pandemic is just plain f**ing stupid. Anyone not living in the great state of denial can see that clear as day. Even though the rate of COVID cases for Sturgis attendees is well under the national rate for that period of time. I'm sure that's the truth in your Faux News world. If you really and truly believe that to be the truth, I have some choice properties to sell you. There is the orange grove I own in northern Canada or of course a couple of choice bridges in New York. Explain only 1 COVID death among 400,000+ Sturgis attendees. Do you think people that die from COVID just drop dead as soon as they get it? • Sturgis began 34 days ago. • The incubation period for COVID is 2-14 days. Average is around 1 week. • It takes about one week to become severely ill after getting symptoms*. • A day-to-day breakdown of Coronovirus symptoms puts death at close to 20 days after symptoms appear. What I was saying was, how does he know there's only been one death? Yeah, still waiting for his reply to your question. Presented as such a fact.

TJSweens -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 1:54:01 PM)
Simple. Anything that says otherwise is fake science.

Brad H -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 1:54:58 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen quote: ORIGINAL: Brad H quote: ORIGINAL: David Levine quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: Todd M I don't care what the #'s are the Stugis get together was complete idiocy and all those who gather in such a fashion are the problem. Why, because it's outside of your little sphere of activities? Maybe they were able to see ahead of the event that the rate of COVID cases for attendees would be well under the national rate for that period of time. No, because cramming 500,000 non socially distanced people into bars, restaurants, hotels and camp grounds in a relatively small area around a small town during a pandemic is just plain f**ing stupid. Anyone not living in the great state of denial can see that clear as day. Even though the rate of COVID cases for Sturgis attendees is well under the national rate for that period of time. I'm sure that's the truth in your Faux News world. If you really and truly believe that to be the truth, I have some choice properties to sell you. There is the orange grove I own in northern Canada or of course a couple of choice bridges in New York. Explain only 1 COVID death among 400,000+ Sturgis attendees. Do you think people that die from COVID just drop dead as soon as they get it? • Sturgis began 34 days ago. • The incubation period for COVID is 2-14 days. Average is around 1 week. • It takes about one week to become severely ill after getting symptoms*. • A day-to-day breakdown of Coronovirus symptoms puts death at close to 20 days after symptoms appear. What I was saying was, how does he know there's only been one death? Yeah, still waiting for his reply to your question. Presented as such a fact. Is it possible that the BigO is waiting for newspaper reports? For a guy that appears to have no faith in the media, that would be a little strange.

Brad H -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 2:18:54 PM)
Twitter is amazing [image]local://201/3E86AE2ADA644B859DD6BDA2B4559D64.jpg[/image]

thebigo -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 2:36:33 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: Brad H quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo WHO says transmission by asymptomatic case's is very rare. Very rare or impossible? Getting the virus itself is pretty rare, provided you take precautions. It's proven that the spread can be very effectively reduced if people wear masks, wash hands, clean surfaces and keep a prudent distance. Just to be clear, asymptomatic people can spread the virus just the same as symptomatic people. The virus is still in their bodies just as it is for people who show symptoms. If they sneeze or cough due to seasonal allergies, they will spray the virus just as if they had symptoms. You, of course being the trusted source, with the World Health Organization a distant second.

TJSweens -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 2:39:32 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: Brad H quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo WHO says transmission by asymptomatic case's is very rare. Very rare or impossible? Getting the virus itself is pretty rare, provided you take precautions. It's proven that the spread can be very effectively reduced if people wear masks, wash hands, clean surfaces and keep a prudent distance. Just to be clear, asymptomatic people can spread the virus just the same as symptomatic people. The virus is still in their bodies just as it is for people who show symptoms. If they sneeze or cough due to seasonal allergies, they will spray the virus just as if they had symptoms. You, of course being the trusted source, with the World Health Organization a distant second. The WHO says the same thing, as does the CDC, as does Fauci, as does Birx ...

TJSweens -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 2:43:45 PM)
The World Health Organization clarified comments an official made on Monday that called asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus "very rare," saying in a press conference that these carriers do take part in spreading the virus but that more information is needed to know by how much. What they're saying: WHO official Maria Van Kerkhove clarified Tuesday that patients sometimes confuse not having any symptoms with only exhibiting mild symptoms. In addition, some patients transmit the virus before developing symptoms. Contact tracers classify this group as "presymptomatic," rather than asymptomatic. Van Kerkhov said the WHO estimates 16% of people are asymptomatic and can transmit the virus. Some models suggest up to 40% of coronavirus transmission might be due to asymptomatic spread, she added, but much more information is needed. Van Kerkhove stressed that her comments on Monday were specific to particular studies and did not represent a new policy or direction. The WHO said it regrets saying that asymptomatic spread is "very rare." https://www.axios.com/who-asymptomatic-coronavirus-69c56ce3-41e0-4ea7-ab2a-de866713b4cf.html

thebigo -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 2:44:08 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: David Levine quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: Todd M I don't care what the #'s are the Stugis get together was complete idiocy and all those who gather in such a fashion are the problem. Why, because it's outside of your little sphere of activities? Maybe they were able to see ahead of the event that the rate of COVID cases for attendees would be well under the national rate for that period of time. No, because cramming 500,000 non socially distanced people into bars, restaurants, hotels and camp grounds in a relatively small area around a small town during a pandemic is just plain f**ing stupid. Anyone not living in the great state of denial can see that clear as day. Even though the rate of COVID cases for Sturgis attendees is well under the national rate for that period of time. I'm sure that's the truth in your Faux News world. If you really and truly believe that to be the truth, I have some choice properties to sell you. There is the orange grove I own in northern Canada or of course a couple of choice bridges in New York. Explain only 1 COVID death among 400,000+ Sturgis attendees. Do you think people that die from COVID just drop dead as soon as they get it? • Sturgis began 34 days ago. • The incubation period for COVID is 2-14 days. Average is around 1 week. • It takes about one week to become severely ill after getting symptoms*. • A day-to-day breakdown of Coronovirus symptoms puts death at close to 20 days after symptoms appear. It's been 24 days.

TJSweens -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 2:45:38 PM)
+ up to 14 days for symptoms to first appear.

thebigo -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 2:49:17 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen quote: ORIGINAL: Brad H quote: ORIGINAL: David Levine quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: Todd M I don't care what the #'s are the Stugis get together was complete idiocy and all those who gather in such a fashion are the problem. Why, because it's outside of your little sphere of activities? Maybe they were able to see ahead of the event that the rate of COVID cases for attendees would be well under the national rate for that period of time. No, because cramming 500,000 non socially distanced people into bars, restaurants, hotels and camp grounds in a relatively small area around a small town during a pandemic is just plain f**ing stupid. Anyone not living in the great state of denial can see that clear as day. Even though the rate of COVID cases for Sturgis attendees is well under the national rate for that period of time. I'm sure that's the truth in your Faux News world. If you really and truly believe that to be the truth, I have some choice properties to sell you. There is the orange grove I own in northern Canada or of course a couple of choice bridges in New York. Explain only 1 COVID death among 400,000+ Sturgis attendees. Do you think people that die from COVID just drop dead as soon as they get it? • Sturgis began 34 days ago. • The incubation period for COVID is 2-14 days. Average is around 1 week. • It takes about one week to become severely ill after getting symptoms*. • A day-to-day breakdown of Coronovirus symptoms puts death at close to 20 days after symptoms appear. What I was saying was, how does he know there's only been one death? Yeah, still waiting for his reply to your question. Presented as such a fact. Since you "exposed" him, COVID death's you can't hide. It's the one stat you can hang your hat on. Somebody dies from COVID, it is known if they were in Sturgis.

thebigo -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 2:52:38 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens The World Health Organization clarified comments an official made on Monday that called asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus "very rare," saying in a press conference that these carriers do take part in spreading the virus but that more information is needed to know by how much. What they're saying: WHO official Maria Van Kerkhove clarified Tuesday that patients sometimes confuse not having any symptoms with only exhibiting mild symptoms. In addition, some patients transmit the virus before developing symptoms. Contact tracers classify this group as "presymptomatic," rather than asymptomatic. Van Kerkhov said the WHO estimates 16% of people are asymptomatic and can transmit the virus. Some models suggest up to 40% of coronavirus transmission might be due to asymptomatic spread, she added, but much more information is needed. Van Kerkhove stressed that her comments on Monday were specific to particular studies and did not represent a new policy or direction. The WHO said it regrets saying that asymptomatic spread is "very rare." https://www.axios.com/who-asymptomatic-coronavirus-69c56ce3-41e0-4ea7-ab2a-de866713b4cf.html These guys are like the caffeine study of the week, which one you gonna believe?

David Levine -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 2:59:57 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: David Levine quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: Todd M I don't care what the #'s are the Stugis get together was complete idiocy and all those who gather in such a fashion are the problem. Why, because it's outside of your little sphere of activities? Maybe they were able to see ahead of the event that the rate of COVID cases for attendees would be well under the national rate for that period of time. No, because cramming 500,000 non socially distanced people into bars, restaurants, hotels and camp grounds in a relatively small area around a small town during a pandemic is just plain f**ing stupid. Anyone not living in the great state of denial can see that clear as day. Even though the rate of COVID cases for Sturgis attendees is well under the national rate for that period of time. I'm sure that's the truth in your Faux News world. If you really and truly believe that to be the truth, I have some choice properties to sell you. There is the orange grove I own in northern Canada or of course a couple of choice bridges in New York. Explain only 1 COVID death among 400,000+ Sturgis attendees. Do you think people that die from COVID just drop dead as soon as they get it? • Sturgis began 34 days ago. • The incubation period for COVID is 2-14 days. Average is around 1 week. • It takes about one week to become severely ill after getting symptoms*. • A day-to-day breakdown of Coronovirus symptoms puts death at close to 20 days after symptoms appear. It's been 24 days. Thank you for making my point even more clear.

David Levine -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 3:01:10 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens The World Health Organization clarified comments an official made on Monday that called asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus "very rare," saying in a press conference that these carriers do take part in spreading the virus but that more information is needed to know by how much. What they're saying: WHO official Maria Van Kerkhove clarified Tuesday that patients sometimes confuse not having any symptoms with only exhibiting mild symptoms. In addition, some patients transmit the virus before developing symptoms. Contact tracers classify this group as "presymptomatic," rather than asymptomatic. Van Kerkhov said the WHO estimates 16% of people are asymptomatic and can transmit the virus. Some models suggest up to 40% of coronavirus transmission might be due to asymptomatic spread, she added, but much more information is needed. Van Kerkhove stressed that her comments on Monday were specific to particular studies and did not represent a new policy or direction. The WHO said it regrets saying that asymptomatic spread is "very rare." https://www.axios.com/who-asymptomatic-coronavirus-69c56ce3-41e0-4ea7-ab2a-de866713b4cf.html These guys are like the caffeine study of the week, which one you gonna believe? Well, they all refute your initial point, so take your pick?

David Levine -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 3:02:39 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen quote: ORIGINAL: Brad H quote: ORIGINAL: David Levine quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: Todd M I don't care what the #'s are the Stugis get together was complete idiocy and all those who gather in such a fashion are the problem. Why, because it's outside of your little sphere of activities? Maybe they were able to see ahead of the event that the rate of COVID cases for attendees would be well under the national rate for that period of time. No, because cramming 500,000 non socially distanced people into bars, restaurants, hotels and camp grounds in a relatively small area around a small town during a pandemic is just plain f**ing stupid. Anyone not living in the great state of denial can see that clear as day. Even though the rate of COVID cases for Sturgis attendees is well under the national rate for that period of time. I'm sure that's the truth in your Faux News world. If you really and truly believe that to be the truth, I have some choice properties to sell you. There is the orange grove I own in northern Canada or of course a couple of choice bridges in New York. Explain only 1 COVID death among 400,000+ Sturgis attendees. Do you think people that die from COVID just drop dead as soon as they get it? • Sturgis began 34 days ago. • The incubation period for COVID is 2-14 days. Average is around 1 week. • It takes about one week to become severely ill after getting symptoms*. • A day-to-day breakdown of Coronovirus symptoms puts death at close to 20 days after symptoms appear. What I was saying was, how does he know there's only been one death? Yeah, still waiting for his reply to your question. Presented as such a fact. Since you "exposed" him, COVID death's you can't hide. It's the one stat you can hang your hat on. Somebody dies from COVID, it is known if they were in Sturgis. And the average time between contraction of the disease and death is 30+ days. Plus you're ignoring that Covid deaths are generally reported 7-10 days after they happen...

TJSweens -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 3:02:40 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens The World Health Organization clarified comments an official made on Monday that called asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus "very rare," saying in a press conference that these carriers do take part in spreading the virus but that more information is needed to know by how much. What they're saying: WHO official Maria Van Kerkhove clarified Tuesday that patients sometimes confuse not having any symptoms with only exhibiting mild symptoms. In addition, some patients transmit the virus before developing symptoms. Contact tracers classify this group as "presymptomatic," rather than asymptomatic. Van Kerkhov said the WHO estimates 16% of people are asymptomatic and can transmit the virus. Some models suggest up to 40% of coronavirus transmission might be due to asymptomatic spread, she added, but much more information is needed. Van Kerkhove stressed that her comments on Monday were specific to particular studies and did not represent a new policy or direction. The WHO said it regrets saying that asymptomatic spread is "very rare." https://www.axios.com/who-asymptomatic-coronavirus-69c56ce3-41e0-4ea7-ab2a-de866713b4cf.html These guys are like the caffeine study of the week, which one you gonna believe? That is a completely false statement. They have always cautioned about asymptomatic spread, except for one mis-statement by Van Kerkhove, which she immediately clarified.

thebigo -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 3:05:59 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens + up to 14 days for symptoms to first appear. More deaths should be sprinkling in pretty quickly then. Most people that were there were there pretty early. Looks like y'all got another 7-10 days before you can start beating your chests. Let's say the average case caught at Sturgis was halfway into it, 29 days ago, average incubation/symptoms appearing 1 week, we're at 22 days, death after 20 days, the AVERAGE Sturgis case that was going to die would have died 2 days ago. So we currently have 1 death, are we hoping for 2-3?

TJSweens -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 3:07:52 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens + up to 14 days for symptoms to first appear. More deaths should be sprinkling in pretty quickly then. Most people that were there were there pretty early. Looks like y'all got another 7-10 days before you can start beating your chests. Let's say the average case caught at Sturgis was halfway into it, 29 days ago, average incubation/symptoms appearing 1 week, we're at 22 days, death after 20 days, the AVERAGE Sturgis case that was going to die would have died 2 days ago. So we currently have 1 death, are we hoping for 2-3? We've been hoping for 0 since day 1, but we're about 190,000 beyond that right now.

thebigo -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 3:09:14 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens The World Health Organization clarified comments an official made on Monday that called asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus "very rare," saying in a press conference that these carriers do take part in spreading the virus but that more information is needed to know by how much. What they're saying: WHO official Maria Van Kerkhove clarified Tuesday that patients sometimes confuse not having any symptoms with only exhibiting mild symptoms. In addition, some patients transmit the virus before developing symptoms. Contact tracers classify this group as "presymptomatic," rather than asymptomatic. Van Kerkhov said the WHO estimates 16% of people are asymptomatic and can transmit the virus. Some models suggest up to 40% of coronavirus transmission might be due to asymptomatic spread, she added, but much more information is needed. Van Kerkhove stressed that her comments on Monday were specific to particular studies and did not represent a new policy or direction. The WHO said it regrets saying that asymptomatic spread is "very rare." https://www.axios.com/who-asymptomatic-coronavirus-69c56ce3-41e0-4ea7-ab2a-de866713b4cf.html These guys are like the caffeine study of the week, which one you gonna believe? That is a completely false statement. They have always cautioned about asymptomatic spread, except for one mis-statement by Van Kerkhove, which she immediately clarified. That's a pretty big mis-statement.

TJSweens -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (9/9/2020 3:20:08 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens The World Health Organization clarified comments an official made on Monday that called asymptomatic transmission of the coronavirus "very rare," saying in a press conference that these carriers do take part in spreading the virus but that more information is needed to know by how much. What they're saying: WHO official Maria Van Kerkhove clarified Tuesday that patients sometimes confuse not having any symptoms with only exhibiting mild symptoms. In addition, some patients transmit the virus before developing symptoms. Contact tracers classify this group as "presymptomatic," rather than asymptomatic. Van Kerkhov said the WHO estimates 16% of people are asymptomatic and can transmit the virus. Some models suggest up to 40% of coronavirus transmission might be due to asymptomatic spread, she added, but much more information is needed. Van Kerkhove stressed that her comments on Monday were specific to particular studies and did not represent a new policy or direction. The WHO said it regrets saying that asymptomatic spread is "very rare." https://www.axios.com/who-asymptomatic-coronavirus-69c56ce3-41e0-4ea7-ab2a-de866713b4cf.html These guys are like the caffeine study of the week, which one you gonna believe? That is a completely false statement. They have always cautioned about asymptomatic spread, except for one mis-statement by Van Kerkhove, which she immediately clarified. That's a pretty big mis-statement. Regardless of the magnitude of the mistake, she corrected it immediately. The WHO position that covid-19 can be spread by asymptomatic people is widely supported by the scientific community. I get that you want it to be otherwise, but those are the facts, like it or not.

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