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ratoppenheimer -> RE: General Vikes Talk (1/30/2024 8:38:35 AM)
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for those interested, this journalist did an in-depth analysis of all the 4th down plays in this year's playoffs - see link below....
https://theathletic.com/5234675/2024/01/29/dan-campbell-detroit-lions-fourth-down-nfc-championship/
Campbell's biggest mistakes - maybe not what you think:
There are two decisions I think are deserving of some questioning. The first was the decision to kick a field goal on fourth-and-3 from the 49ers’ 3-yard line with seven seconds left in the second quarter with the Lions leading 21-7. Campbell mentioned that he was close to going for it but ultimately decided to turn a two-score game into a three-score game. Unfortunately for Campbell, this decision cost the Lions 4.4 percent in win probability. For context, that was the second-worst fourth-down decision in the playoffs this year — behind Campbell electing to punt up 24-23 in the fourth quarter on fourth-and-4 against the Los Angeles Rams in the wild-card round.
Campbell’s other whiff came on the play before Williams’ touchdown late in the fourth quarter — the third-and-goal run by David Montgomery with 1:05 left in the game. This decision probably falls on offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s shoulders as well as Campbell’s. Regardless of who is more to blame, it was a total blunder.
The Lions had found some success catching the 49ers off-guard with runs in passing situations earlier in the game, but this was not the time to risk losing a timeout. And that’s exactly what happened. Montgomery was stuffed for a 2-yard loss, forcing Detroit to burn one of its three timeouts. If Detroit had kept all three, there’s a chance they could have gotten the ball back after forcing the 49ers to punt on the ensuing possession.
The decision, per rbsdm.com, cost the Lions 4.7 percent in win probability. Of course, the Lions’ odds of winning the game before the third down were just 9 percent, so it may not have mattered in the end, but costing yourself more than half of your win probability on one play cannot happen. Campbell might not have any regrets about his other decisions Sunday night, but I’m confident he regrets running the ball there.
So while I do think Campbell should be criticized for his decision-making in the NFC Championship Game, I think it should be for decisions to take the points before the half and for running the ball when keeping as much time on the clock as possible was vitally important.
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