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TJSweens -> RE: Twins off-season (2/4/2024 7:37:00 AM)
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Anthony DeSclafani in the Rotation Raises More Questions than Answers
Adam Friedman
By Adam Friedman
15 hours ago
While the acquisitions of reliever Justin Topa and top-100 prospect Gabriel González were exciting pieces to receive for Jorge Polanco as part of a four-player package, the inclusion of Anthony Desclafani revealed that the Twins likely finalized their 2024 rotation in an uninspiring fashion.
The addition of Desclafani leaves the rotation in a concerning spot for a team looking to contend not just for an AL Central title but also a World Series title. Slotting him in as the fifth starter leaves the backend of the rotation mediocre, doesn't address the need for an additional frontline starter to pair with Pablo LĂłpez, and brings in more injury questions for a rotation full of them.
Questionable Backend of the Rotation
The Twins went into the offseason with the makings of a strong starting rotation despite the imminent departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. They needed to acquire a frontline starter to pair with LĂłpez, and Chris Paddack; Joe Ryan; and Bailey Ober would fill in. Beyond forming a 1-2 punch at the front of the rotation, the trio at the back would stand above their peers.
Despite a disappointing 2023, Ryan is projected to post a solid 4.01 ERA by Fangraphs' ZiPS projection system. ZiPS projects Ober to post a 3.98 ERA. These results would be an improvement on the Twins' worst two rotation mainstays from 2023- Ryan and Maeda, who posted a 4.51 ERA and 4.23 ERA.
If Ober and Ryan, who have shown the ability to outpitch these projections at times, meet these projections, that would be a significant step up on last year's rotation, one of the best in Twins history. DeSclafani, on the other hand, is projected to post a 4.30 ERA. That's okay and is still an improvement on Maeda and Ryan's 2023 performance, but it diminishes a potentially elite backend of the rotation. DeSclafani's presence isn't a disaster by any means, but his taking up a place on the staff prevents the back of the rotation from being the strength it could and should be.
Still Needing a Frontline Starter
With their strong lineup, bullpen, and some strong starters, the expectations for the 2024 Twins are to repeat as division champions and try to make it to the ALCS or beyond. To do that, they need an additional playoff-caliber starter without Gray.
The front office might argue that Paddack is ready to be that guy after his promising glimpses out of the bullpen in 2023. That may be true, but he has not been good since his rookie season in 2019. Five years and a Tommy John surgery later, he's not a guy to rely upon.
The Twins also might believe Ryan or Ober can step up, but they didn't show that this past year, and the Twins didn't believe in them when they planned early exits for both of them in the ALDS. Ryan especially may be able to become a high-end number two starter, but he's relying on his improved slider to work, and he needs to keep the ball in the park.
These options are not what a team that is more likely than not to make a playoff appearance per betting odds should plan on. They can still get a frontline starter before the season starts or even at the deadline, but the DeSclafani addition indicates that move won't happen. For now, these are the options, and they need to be better for the team to meet its goals in October.
Injury Questions
On top of the pure talent of the rotation not fitting with the ambitions this organization should have for 2024, it's also riddled with injury questions. Pitchers often have injury concerns, but the fewer injury concerns on the staff, the less likely injuries are to derail a promising season.
Paddack is coming off his second Tommy John surgery and hasn't pitched more than 110 innings since 2021. Ober has been fragile for his entire professional career, and his 164 innings in 2023 were the first time he pitched more than 110 innings.
DeSclafani brings a flexor strain, which he is yet to be cleared from, although there's hope he's ready by Opening Day. These concerns are enough to make one queasy about the rotation entering the year.
The Jorge Polanco trade had many interesting components and parts to be excited about. But the way the rotation shakes out with DeSclafani as the fifth starter and no additional frontline starter is not where it should be. Will the Twins make another move to upgrade their rotation to one worthy of the team, or is this it?
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