RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (Full Version)

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marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (11/21/2008 8:52:32 PM)

I'l actually go on record as predicting:

Titans 20 Jets 16
Cardinals 34 Giants 21
Jaguars 27 Vikings 10

Despite that, I think the storyline at the end of the day COULD end up being 2 old QBs leading their teams to BIG wins, Favre and Warner (which would make them both MVP candidates).

I actually like Warner's chances for upset much better as he is at home, facing his former team and some important Giants could be missing, Burress and maybe Jacobs.  The Giants could get punched in the mouth, but still have an excuse should Burress not play.  OTOH, Warner could have a very tough day IF he is blitzed a lot, and that could result in the worst game of the season for him.
 
Should the Titans win, its sets up the scenario for the most improbable upset on Thanksgiving.  The 0-11 Lions BEAT the 11-0 Titans, the NFL loves that kind of storyline.  It will take a few biased calls from the officials early on to give the Lions the boost they need, they get pumped up later in the game because they are actually IN the game, and BOOM, you have the Lions pulling the upset.   Some will suspect a fix but just say "Any given day", and anyone from the Titans that complains about the officiating will be fined. 

----------------------------

I think the Vikings have had their chemistry disrupted with all the possible suspension stuff, fines, AP and Allen resting and with their poor (head) coaching will lose a team they should probably beat.  MJ Drew will surely get a special teams' TD (maybe Allison will get one also), and the Jaguars' defense will probably get AT LEAST one TD, along with at least 4 sacks. 



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (11/22/2008 12:47:15 AM)

Logic tells me the Titans beat the Jets, but my feeling is now turning towards the Jets winning, possibly even winning BIG.  Should the Jets get ahead early, they COULD pour it on.  A few calls by the officials early on that favor the Jets, along with some outstanding play, and the Jets could roll (Collins COULD throw a few picks, along with some fumbles by the rookie RB, maybe Gage).

I think that, should the officials mess with a game, it would be A LOT easier for them to put the Jets on the way towards beating the Titans, than it would for them to help the Lions.  With the Lions, it might take so much that people might notice the officials are trying to mess with the game, and help the Lions get on the track to beating the Titans.   

I just got done watching the Vikings defeat the Packers (from 2 weeks ago), and the Packers defeating the Bears (last week).  I couldn't help but notice that holding calls on the OL killed the losing team in both cases, it was critical.  Sure the Packers win was lopsided over the Bears, but it might NOT have been should those holding calls not get called.  At the same time, the holding calls against the Packers with Minnesota were critical in a close game.   

One thing I should mention, in the Viking-Packer game, Donald Driver picked up a PI call where the defender barely touched his back, and didn't affect his movement towards the ball.  Later in the game, Wade had a Packer player with his hands not only on Wade, but the hand slid up by his helmet shielding his eyes and there was no flag. 

Also, there was a holding call on Driver where the biased announcer didn't think
holding should have been called on that play, and that holding could get called on every play.  But you can see on the replay that Driver had a VERY good hold, and actually pulled the defender away when he grabbed on, it was BETTER than just a hold.  

Watching the play where Jared Allen was flagged for a late hit, I do NOT think there should have been a flag, and I do NOT think he was leading with his helmet.  Allen is tall and does NOT run with his head way back, his head is foward when he is rushing.  He gets up to speed VERY fast and it is hard for him to come to a dead stop really fast.  Actually, on the play, he came to a dead stop about as fast as you could.  There should NOT have been a flag, and the TV announcers were clearly biased towards GB.

Conincidentally, late in the Packer/Bear game, there is a blitzing Packer LBer that if you played it side by side with the Allen hit, you would see that the Packer hit Orton later after the release than did Allen on Rogers.  The Packer LBer was NOT flagged for a late hit, and the announcers made NO mention of this fact, even on the replay where you see it was clearly quite late.  They just said, "the Packers are really playing a complete game today ....", NO mention on how late the hit was.       
   



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (11/22/2008 1:26:08 AM)

I'm also having 2nd thoughts about picking against the Vikes, the team has shown a lot of heart, and has some real football players.  Jacksonville is NOT as good as TB.  Should the Vikes win this one, they'll probably be in the playoffs as a wildcard or divisional winner.

I'm not picking the games BOTH ways, this is my REVISED predictions, my final answer:

Jets 40 Tennessee 16
Cardinals 34 Giants 21
Vikings 27  Jaguars 17
 
Those are my final answers, keeping in mind that my predictions have been HORRIBLE and way off this year.  I invite some of you others to boldly predict some scores and outcomes for the coming week. 



Don T in CO -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (11/22/2008 1:07:51 PM)

I'll take a shot Marty.  I like these underdogs (and one pick'em) to win straight-up this weekend-

MIN+3 @ JAC  The Vikes bend but don't break against JAC's strong running game.  Vikes offense does just enough to win a close, low scoring game.
PHL+1 @ BAL  Jim Johnson's defense is too much for the rookie QB.
CAR even @ ATL  Again a strong defense against a rookie QB.
GB+3 @ NO  NO's strength is their passing game, Harris and Woodson contain NO WRs and GB does enough offensively to win.

Disclaimer- I'm not a big winner against the line, so take these picks should be considered 'for entertainment only'.  [&:]





marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (11/24/2008 5:53:32 AM)

I was right on on 2 of them, after I considered where the officials might go, and they did help the Jets quite a bit.  I should have figured the refs might help the champs as Arizona was probably a favorite to pull the upset at home.

I'm surprised the Saints we're a 2 1/2 point favorite over the Packers, and the bettors were also as the spread moved to just 1.  The bettors are usually wrong.

I don't like this because I need some Packer players to perform for fantasy football, and I think the refs will be active in killing the Packers early on.  I think it will done with holding calls on the Packers' OL (while you won't see ANY on NO unless they are obvious, or called by a ref not in on the 'sway'), and the refs will probably call every PI call tight, where the Packers usually get away with a lot of non-calls, in this game I expect they'll be flagged for nearly every PI or hold after 5 yards with Harris, Williams, Woodson, Collins or Bigby.   

I think NO will be in a GREAT position to win the game at the end, probably with a lead of 7 or more.  I think that because GB is clearly the better team, a vastly superior defense (and that was before CB McKenzie went out for NO), an almost equal offense, and better special teams with Bush being out.  I think it'll probably take the refs helping NO early on to propel them to win, or maybe some PI calls late in the game, like the Jets kept getting against the Titans.   



Lynn G. -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (11/24/2008 8:58:27 AM)

quote:

I don't like this because I need some Packer players to perform for fantasy football


Hard and fast rule of living in this universe:

You never, ever, ever, ever root for a fantasy player over the real life need to have our division rivals lose.



Guest -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (11/24/2008 5:52:01 PM)

Just don't draft packers...qed...



Don T in CO -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (11/24/2008 7:39:52 PM)

... or ever bet on my football picks.  [:o]



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (11/25/2008 9:23:01 AM)

I was RIGHT about the Saints winning, but it had very little to do with the officials.  I think the difference was the coaching.

Payton figured out good ways to attack a strong Packers defense, providing a blueprint for future teams (although not eveyone has a Drew Brees for QB).  He also did just enough on defense.  I think the Packers' biggest mistake was taking Ryan Grant out when down by 17 in the 3rd quarter.  They could have scored a TD and been been down by just 10 at the start of the 4th quarter.  Taking Grant out, put more pressure on Rogers, allowing the Saints' defense to just play pass defense.  That was a coaching blunder by McCarthy.  

The Packers helped me in 2 FF leagues, but not enough in a 3rd one, the one that really counted, the one with my co-workers.  There I came up ONE point short, and I had a higher scoring bench which was the tiebreaker.  In that league, I should have started Thigpen over Favre, the Vikings' D over the Packers D, or Clevelands' K over Denvers'.  Also dissappointing was the Packers got down to the 1 yard line and ran 2 straight plays with the FB, instead of Grant.

I'm not really that fond of having Packers in the lineup, but Grant, Jennings and the Packers D have been great scorers.  And this year, they done well at putting up points in plenty of losing efforts, giving me the best of both worlds several times, a Packers loss and FF win.       



ambear -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (11/25/2008 2:45:14 PM)

I predict Vikes are the division leaders this time next week.  I also predict the Williams wall gets a 4 game suspension starting a week from this Sunday.[X(]



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (11/30/2008 11:11:55 PM)

Hope you only hit 50% Ambear !



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (12/13/2008 10:18:04 PM)

You got 50% Ambear, I'm glad you didn't get 100% !

I think it is REALLY fun to make predictions, I wish more posters would stick their necks out and make some NFL predictions.  I think it is VERY difficult to even get 3 out of 3.  I invite others to try, let's just see if ONE person can get 3 out of 3.
 
Here's my try:

Baltimore 24 Pittsburgh 14
Houston 31 Tennessee 24 (upset)
Tampa Bay 24 Atlanta 3 (1 road team)

I wanted to pick the Lions to pull the upset at Indy, but I'm hoping the Lions are saving their 1st win for the last week at Green Bay.  A Packer fan last week (who I'm sure was upset at the Packers losing) was snickering how the Vikes just got by Detroit, so I'm hoping that karma brings Detroits' 1st win at Green Bay.      



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (12/14/2008 8:49:49 PM)

1 out of 3, not good.  At least I got the upset right. 

Still hoping the Packers haven't yet hit their lowpoint, and WILL when they lose to the Lions, and give the Lions their 1st win in week 17. 



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (12/18/2008 9:49:26 AM)

IF there is any such thing as 'sway's, which game do you think will be 'swayed' next week ?

Indy  JAX (+6)
Balt   DAL (-5)
Pit  TEN (+2)
Mia KC (+4)
Arz NE (-7 1/2)
Cin CLE (-3)
Phi WAS (+5)
S.F  ST. LOU (+5 1/2)
Atl  MIN (-3 1/2)
NO  DET (+7)
Car  NYG (-3)
NY J  SEA (+4 1/2)
Hou OAK (+7 1/2)
Buf DEN (-7)
SD  TB (-3 1/2)
GB CHI (-4)

The biggest jump was Pittsburgh started as a 1 point dog, and is now a 2 point favorite.  Chicago was a 6 point favorite, and is now a 4 point favorite.  IOW, the bettors are betting Pittsburgh and GB.  Minnesota went from a 3 point favorite, to 3 1/2, so slightly more bettors are betting Minnesota.   











marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (12/18/2008 10:21:22 AM)

Dallas is now a 4 point favorite, so more bettors are betting Baltimore.

I think that IF a 'sway' were to occur, a ref or 2 would help one of DALLAS, Atlanta, TEN, Miami, NY Jets, NY GIANTS, CHI. 

I think it is much easier for them to 'sway' a game for a home team, so I would narrow it down to probably TEN, NY GIANTS and CHI (but only if Atlanta pulls the upset, pushing towards parity and the North going down to the last week).

A ref or 2 MIGHT try to 'sway' the Vikings game for Atlanta, but they MIGHT have to give up if they have to help Atlanta TOO MUCH, to the point where it starts to look fishy.  IF this game is close, that ref or 2 COULD make the difference and help Atlanta win.  I doubt you'll see calls go Minnesotas' way in a close game, they will have to earn it, either by beating Atlanta, or beating Atlanta AND the ref or 2. 
 
IF there is a 'sway' this week, I'm going to go with it either being in favor of TEN or the NY GIANTS.  TEN - Haynesworth probably isn't being given much of a chance because Pittsburgh has been so gritty, but I think with a little help from a ref or 2 they can get their running game going and beat the Steelers.  Carolina seems like too easy of a pick since they've been hot and the Giants have been NOT - Burress.  It might take several calls or positive non-calls, but I think if the Giants get ahead their defense can shutdown Carolina.

Since it probably wouldn't take as many calls, I'm going to go with TENNESSEE to beat Pittsburgh this week, with or without help from an official or 2.

IF a 'sway' is needed for this to occur, look for early holding calls on Pittsburghs' OL (and NONE on the Titans),  PI calls on Pittsburghs' 2ndary, holding on the Pittsburgh 2ndary (especially on 3rd downs), and maybe a few other close calls that all seem to favor the Titans.  IF the Titans roll early, the refs might NOT need to 'sway' the game, it's only if the Titans appear to struggle early.  But if the refs have to help TOO much to the point where it might look fishy, then they'll probably back off.      

Have I correctly identified this weeks' 'sway' (TENN over Pitts), or do any of you guys or gals think it will be another game ? 

I realize this is VERY hard to do, and if you were good at it, you could make quite a sum of money in Vegas.  I am not betting on any games,  I just want to hear your thoughts on this.     



Tim Cady -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (12/18/2008 10:28:55 AM)

That's easy Marty.

San Diego @Tampa Bay. (-3 1/2)Take San Diego and the points all you Vegas betters.

If SD wins the next two weeks mr big arms might be able to live down the SD/Den game earlier this year. His fraternity will do whatever they can to get him off the hook, plus the league would love to have Den/SD for all the marbles week 17, when typically there are mostly duderama games.



Don T in CO -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (12/18/2008 11:07:14 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tim Cady

That's easy Marty.

San Diego @Tampa Bay. (-3 1/2)Take San Diego and the points all you Vegas betters.

If SD wins the next two weeks mr big arms might be able to live down the SD/Den game earlier this year. His fraternity will do whatever they can to get him off the hook, plus the league would love to have Den/SD for all the marbles week 17, when typically there are mostly duderama games.


If the above is true then the refs would also have to sway for BUF (@ DEN), because DEN's magic number for winning the division is 1.



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (12/18/2008 12:34:38 PM)

I think it's too much for them to 'sway' TWO games to make something occur like a certain matchup.  They might 'sway' one of them, and hope the other has the desired result. 

I wonder if Detroit and 7 isn't a good bet against NO.  Detroit seems more feisty by the week, this one is at home and NO just got beaten by a more physical team.  However, IF Kevin Jones is out, you can forget it.

I think it would be easier for the powers that be to 'sway' Detroit winning at home against a team with a very weak defense, then having them 'sway' Detroit winning at Lambau in Week 17 (but you never know).  Or maybe we have the 1st 0-16 ?   



Don T in CO -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (12/18/2008 1:00:18 PM)

Marty, is the basis of your 'sway theory' more related to 'big gambling' trying to sway games in the house's favor (especially in the case where the line moves a few points) or is it more related to the NFL wanting to sway their own games for $ reasons?



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (12/19/2008 1:11:39 PM)

Good question Don.

IF I knew the answer, I might either be VERY rich, or SOMEBODY from the NFL would probably be busted and in BIG trouble for messing with the games integrity.

Once in a while, like a few weeks ago, the papers reported that Vegas bettors (a MUCH stronger majority had bet on Pittsburgh covering) lost out big time because of an improper call at the end of the Steeler game, where Pittsburgh should have been a awarded a TD, afterwhich the Steelers WOULD have covered the spread.

IF the NFL is messing with it, I don't think it's directly because of money, but rather to have more parity which leads to strong fan interest, and more fan interest (which does, as you say, lead to more money). 

I can NOT figure which of the 2 it is, or if it is BOTH, and just flips back and forth from time to time.  You would think the answer would then be that they must NOT be messing with games, but every so often something seems VERY fishy.  



Don T in CO -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (12/19/2008 2:41:56 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

...  You would think the answer would then be that they must NOT be messing with games, but every so often something seems VERY fishy.  


It seems that for years when the Vikings had Randy Moss that they could not catch a break from the refs.  Now it seems like the Vikes, with AP, get more breaks than I've ever seen them get.  It does kind of make me wonder if the breaks are 'swayed' to go to the teams with players that the league wants to promote (e.g. Brett Favre) while having the breaks 'swayed' against the teams that the league doesn't care to promote.

Of course this theory doesn't explain how small market teams like Buffalo make it to the Super Bowl 4 times, etc. but I still think it might be interesting to track games where both the line moves a lot in one direction and the NFL stands to make more money from one outcome than another.

Which reminds me, who would the NFL rather have win a 1975 playoff game - a team from one of the smaller markets with back to back SB losses or "America's Team"? 
[sm=scratch.gif]

[&:]



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (12/19/2008 9:44:58 PM)

Maybe AP is more LIKEABLE than Randy Moss ?
 
I don't know either one personally, but I suspect that is probably the case.  Maybe officials just at times favor a team and players that are more likeable ?  That certainly seems plausable, and human.    



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (12/21/2008 6:57:31 PM)

Good job guys !  Good job Tim of picking SD.  Good job Don of pointing out that Buffalo might get help, maybe they did ? Did my pick Tennessee get any help from refs, or didn't they need any ?

I tell you what guys, IF we can get good at figuring out or narrowing down which games COULD be 'swayed' we could be better at predicting games than sites that charge people for picks. 

Maybe Atlanta was GOING to get a 'sway' from the refs but didn't need it as the Vikes fumbled 3 times to help put Atlanta up ? 

I did NOT like the non-call at the end as Rice had positioning, did NOT push the defender where he was being pushed away from the ball.  The defender grabbed Rice and held his hand so he was forced to try and make a one handed catch.  That SHOULD have been a PI call, I totally disagree with the announcers who were trying to vouch for the refs. 

The refs should NOT decide games (not with questionable calls), BUT that doesn't mean you can break the rules and win because of it, the rules still need to be enforced ! 

Maybe the Vikings' game WAS a 'sway' in favor of Atlanta, and the refs involved COULD make a call when the Vikes were down by 2 TDs, but could NOT when the Vikes might move to within one.  
 
Atlanta was the team getting the 'sway' because the league wanted Atlanta IN the playoffs after the Michael Vick fiasco, and it is better for the league to have the Vikes and Bears go to the last week.    



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (12/22/2008 7:36:23 PM)

My prediction: Bears win!

There is a conflict of interest where the league wants the Bears to win so their game and the Viking game are important next week.  There is also a low spread, so betting on the Bears seems like too easy of a bet.  Chance are the officials won't mess with the game.

IF the refs DO mess with the game they will: 1) be o.k. with the Bears being ahead, but if looks like they're blowing the Pack out, expect the officials to help the Packers get back into it 2) should the Bears fall behind early, they'll help the Bears get back into it, if they can 3) IF the Bears help the Pack get into game where the Pack is being blown out, they'll also have to make sure at the end, if they can, that the Bears still hold on to win, but hopefully NOT cover the spread.

IF the refs mess with the game, I predict 1) and 3) will occur, and if perfected you get the Bears winning by 3 (spread was Bears by 4 last I checked).

Bears 27 Packers 24    

  



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (12/23/2008 12:05:53 AM)

How about that, I predicted the Bears win by 3, and they DID!  Almost had the score right, just 1 more TD for each team.  Should have figured the cold would slow things down a little.

Isn't it interesting how the Bears got a good spot to give them a chance to tie the game ?  Isn't it interesting how the game stayed close so the Packers were likely to cover the spread ?  (I know I had leaned towards the Bears getting ahead early in that one)  Isn't also interesting that once it was close, the Bears got help in OT on a questionable horse collar call (easily could have been a non-call) ?

It worked out PERFECT for the reasons I listed in previous posts.

WE did VERY well in our predictions this week, and I do think someone could make a considerable amount of money if they could correctly guess where the officials might intervene.   

I have a STRONG fear that the officials will favor the Giants ( - Burress) next week, having a game they don't really need, while the Vikes REALLY need it.  The money is LIKELY to be on the Vikes at home, unlikely to have another big flop at home.  A few early calls that favor the Giants, an early Giants lead and the Vikes are likely to get jittery, and fumble the game away, maybe even lose in a blowout.

AND Kevin Williams might also get suspended for the game, should a Federal judge rule AGAINST the Vikings, which would NOT surprise me in the least.

I think the Vikes at home with A LOT of crowd noise COULD overcome BOTH the Giants, AND a 'sway' put on by the officials, but probably NOT with Kevin Williams absent. 



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