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MDK -> RE: MLB General Information PT 4 (9/28/2016 1:27:06 PM)
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From Jim Bowden on ESPN Insider
See Jim's Pick 10 for most value gained.
Pittsburgh and Ray Searage have done a great job of turning around under achieving pitchers. The turned around Liriano. Now they turned around Nova. Wonder what Searage would have done for Berrios?
Players are like stocks on the stock market. Their value fluctuates on a day-to-day, month-to-month and mostly year-to-year basis. This year, for several players there were significant swings in value changes from 2015 positive and negative.
Here are my lists of the most value gained and most value lost in 2016 based on actual performances. As in previous years, I will be predicting actual years and values for all of the top free agents later in October.
For now, here are the players whose values have changed the most.
Most Value Gained
1. Rich Hill, LHS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Hill was impressive in his four starts in September 2015 for the Red Sox, going 2-1 with a 1.55 ERA. However, because it was a small sample size, teams didn’t buy into the performance, and he had to settle for a one-year, $6 million deal with the Athletics. In 2016, he has started 19 games with a combined ERA of 2.05 between Oakland (14 games started) and Los Angeles (five). He’s the real deal. He is going to be the highest paid free-agent starter in this year’s market place.
2. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH, Toronto Blue Jays
It’s hard to believe that his value could go any higher after belting 34 or more home runs in five consecutive years, but that’s going to be the case after a career high in home runs (42) and RBIs (126) in 2016. He plays every day and is showing no signs of decline. His Average Annual Value for position players could be a record high, with the only question that remains being how many years he gets.
3. Justin Turner, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Turner had his breakout year last season, when he hit .294 with 16 home runs and 60 RBIs after enjoying his first opportunity to be an everyday player. However, he followed his good 2015 with a stellar 2016, registering career highs in doubles (33), home runs (27) and RBIs (89) and an OPS of .834. With so many teams looking for an upgrade at third base and his bat going to the next level, his value has skyrocketed.
4. Ian Desmond, CF, Texas Rangers
Desmond’s value plunged a season ago, after a disappointing slash line of .233/.390/.394. However, it only took him a year to get his value back close to where it was. A move to center field helped him defensively -- and indirectly on offense, as well. His .285/.335/.449 slash line resembles his best years (2012-13). For the fourth time in his career, he hit at least 20 home runs and stole at least 20 bases. His clubhouse leadership and presence has been felt in Texas -- and his wallet could feel the difference in the winter.
5. Wilson Ramos, C, Washington Nationals
A year ago, Ramos was coming off a dismal slash line of .229/.258/.358, with 15 home runs and 68 RBIs. After an offseason during which he got his family settled in the United States and had Lasik eye surgery, Wilson has put up a career-best slash line of .307/.354/.497, with 22 home runs and 80 RBIs. However, his recent ACL tear will drastically reduce the years and dollars he actually gets this offseason.
6. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, New York Mets
For whatever reasons, Cespedes didn’t get the long-term offers he expected last season. So instead he signed a creative three-year $75 million dollar deal with an opt out. He is expected to exercise that opt-out clause, which means he’ll have been paid $27 million on a one-year deal by the Mets. He’s going to get paid this time and get the years to go along with it. The only question is: Will the Mets pony up?
7. Michael Saunders, LF, Toronto Blue Jays
Saunders has always had the tools scouts love, but he has never been able to stay healthy long enough to live up to the expectations. However, this was the year he did -- hitting 32 doubles and 24 home runs for his best season to date. He made only $2.9 million last season. Expect that figure to at least triple this offseason.
8. Mark Trumbo, RF, Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles acquired Trumbo from the Mariners in the offseason, along with C.J. Riefenhauser, in a deal for backup catcher Steve Clevenger. It was the most lopsided trade of the offseason, as Trumbo went on to lead the majors in home runs with 45 and make the second All-Star Game of his career. As the motto goes, “Power pays.” He’s going to get paid.
9. Jeremy Hellickson, RHS, Philadelphia Phillies
Hellickson's value went up significantly this season, as he has a 12-10 record with a 3.78 ERA in 31 starts, while pitching half of his games at Citizens Bank Park. Before the season, no one would believe that the Phillies would make him a qualifying offer of $16.7 million. Now it’s a foregone conclusion that they will make an offer, with the strong possibility he turns it down for a more lucrative multiyear deal on the open market.
10. Ivan Nova, RHS, Pittsburgh Pirates
If you’re a failed starting pitcher and want to see your value go up the next year, just sign with the Pirates. Don’t believe me? Ask J.A. Happ, A.J. Burnett and Edinson Volquez. And after this offseason, ask Nova. Nova started the year with the Yankees; in 15 starts and 21 appearances, he had an ERA that nearly kissed 5.00. Then he goes to the Pirates, starts throwing first-pitch strikes at the knees, fills up the strike zone -- as evidenced by only three walks in 59.1 innings -- and has a 3.49 ERA in 10 starts. Don’t believe the adjustments he has made? A lot of baseball people didn’t believe in Happ or Hill last season. Nova's value is going way up.
Most Value Lost
After stumbling in Houston, Carlos Gomez has found his footing in Texas. Still, his free agent value has plummeted. Matt Brown/Angels Baseball LP/Getty Images
1. Carlos Gomez, LF, Texas Rangers
Gomez was so bad this year for the Astros that they released him and allowed him to sign with the AL West-leading Rangers. He has played much better for the Rangers and has brought some of his value back. However, he’s not close to the player he was in 2013-14, and he’ll feel it in free agency.
2. Jose Bautista, RF, Toronto Blue Jays
Bautista was looking for a long-term deal last offseason with hopes of a five- to six-year deal. However, a season of injuries and decline in numbers will lead to a smaller contract in both Average Annual Value and years. A strong postseason could help him though.
3. Matt Holliday, LF, St. Louis Cardinals
Holliday’s seven-year, $120 million dollar deal is about to expire with the team holding a 2017 option of $17 million or a $1 million buyout. It was borderline whether the Cardinals would pick the option, but after a year of injuries, it’s likely the Cards will buy out the option year and Holliday will need to sign a new deal for significantly less money.
4. Angel Pagan, LF, San Francisco Giants
Pagan, 35, has had a solid year with a .326 on-base percentage, 11 home runs and 53 RBIs. However, his expiring contract that paid him $11.25 million this year remains inflated, and he’ll need to take a pay cut and a shorter-term deal than his previous four-year, $40 million dollar contract.
5. Colby Rasmus, LF, Houston Astros
The Astros shocked the baseball world last winter when they offered Rasmus the qualifying offer of $15.8 million. They won’t make that same mistake again this offseason after his .206/.286/.355 slash line and his decrease in home runs from 25 to 15.
6. Santiago Casilla, closer, San Francisco Giants
A career-high nine blown saves and the highest ERA since 2009 will make his value plummet on the free-agent market.
7. Edinson Volquez, RHS, Kansas City Royals
Volquez had a respectable ERA of 3.04 in 2014 and then 3.55 in 2015. This season, his ERA ballooned to 5.37. That will ultimately result in a pay cut.
8. Jered Weaver, RHS, Los Angeles Angels
Weaver’s five-year, $85 million dollar contract expires this offseason. This season, he led the league in home runs allowed and had career highs in ERA (5.06) and FIP (5.61). What kind of pay cut should we expect? “Big,” as Julia Roberts said in “Pretty Woman.” “Huge.”
9. Jonathon Niese, LHS, New York Mets
Niese was traded to the Pirates in the offseason for former Silver Slugger winner Neil Walker. He was so bad for the Pirates -- as proved by an ERA of 4.91 -- he was shipped back to the Mets on Aug. 1 for reliever Antonio Bastardo. In New York, Niese had an ERA of 11.45. He is now on the 60-day disabled list. Value: gone. Now he has to be someone’s reclamation project.
10. Drew Storen, RHR, Seattle Mariners
Storen saved 95 games for the Nationals from 2010-2015 and had an impressive 1.12 ERA in 2014 in 65 appearances. He was traded in 2016 to Toronto, where he had a 6.21 ERA and was so poor that the Blue Jays dealt him to the Mariners at midseason. He has brought his value back some with a 3.63 ERA in 17 appearances in the Pacific Northwest, but he won't get close to the $8.375 million he made this year.
Top 3 Closers (Who will soar)
Based on the top prospect packages it took to acquire them, the trade deadline made it clear how much the value of impact closers are to teams. Now this offseason, their true value will be measured in dollars and years rather than prospect talent. These three closers will be the beneficiary of that changing market:
1. Aroldis Chapman, closer, Chicago Cubs
2. Kenley Jansen, closer, Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Mark Melancon, closer, Washington National
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