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Stacey King -> RE: Players and prospects III (7/16/2015 4:18:14 PM)
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BA Midseason Prospect Update: Twins
The Twins and Royals opened July with a four-game series, which they split in Kansas City. Minnesota second baseman Brian Dozier said the Twins “weren’t satisfied” with the split, which left them in second place behind the defending American League champs from Kansas City.
The Twins will be searching for pennant-race help for the first time since 2010, their last division championship. First-year manager Paul Molitor has spurred a more aggressive offense aided by Dozier’s continued development, the return of veteran Torii Hunter to provide pop and a clubhouse leader, and an injection of athleticism and talent from the farm system.
A year ago at this time, fans in Minnesota missed out on Miguel Sano, a Top 10 fixture since he signed in 2009, and 2012 first-round pick Byron Buxton performing in Target Field, as both players were injured for the 2014 Futures Game. Now both call Target Field home, with Buxton installed in center field in June while Sano was called up as July dawned. (Sano remains eligible for this list.)
Developing homegrown hitters has been Minnesota’s strength since current GM Terry Ryan joined the organization as scouting director in 1987. Since then, the Twins have developed all-star hitters from Hunter and A.J. Pierzynski to Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Dozier, to future all-stars such as Buxton and Sano.
More are on the way, as the Twins remain excited about the development of German-born Max Kepler and 2014 first-rounder Nick Gordon. But the Twins need more homegrown pitching to join Kyle Gibson and former trade pickup Trevor May, who have graduated from the minors to the rotation in recent years. Alex Meyer was unable to do so this season and shifted to the bullpen, and the Twins hope Jose Berrios, 2013 first-rounder Kohl Stewart and 2013 fourth-rounder Stephen Gonsalves can avoid the same fate.
Meyer is at the forefront of a raft of Twins power arms headed to the bullpen that includes J.T. Chargois and Nick Burdi. If any team could replicate the Royals’ flamethrowing bullpen, it could be Minnesota, particularly if 2015 first-rounder Tyler Jay—ineligible for this re-ranking—moves as quickly as anticipated. All three relievers could be September factors if the Twins are still in the playoff hunt.
MIDSEASON TOP 10
1. Miguel Sano, 3b/dh
Twins scouting director Deron Johnson says if Sano grew up in the U.S., he’d have been a defensive lineman, likely with the athleticism to be a pass rusher. Listed at 6-foot-4, 260 pounds, Sano may be heavier than that, and while his arm strength has returned since missing last season with Tommy John surgery, he likely has outgrown third base long-term. He uses his size for good at the plate, though; he shook off early rust from missed season to rank second in the Southern League in homers when promoted. His righthanded power should play enough for him to give Minnesota value, even as a DH.
2. Jose Berrios, rhp
Berrios earned a promotion to Triple-A after averaging 9.13 strikeouts per 9 IP at Double-A. He’s got 95-96 mph when he wants it, sinks his fastball at lower velocity, and mixes in his slider and changeup well. His long arm action leads to inconsistencies but he throws enough strikes to be a starter.
3. Jorge Polanco, ss/2b
Polanco continues to grow physically and may fit better at second base at 5-foot-11, 200 pounds. He’s an athletic middle infielder with solid hitting ability from both sides of the plate. He controls the strike zone fairly well and makes consistent contact. His range appears better suited for second base unless he improves his reads and quickness.
4. Max Kepler, of/1b
One of baseball’s breakout prospects, Kepler has added experience and strength to go with his smooth, pretty swing. Now he does damage rather than just making contact. He’s an above-average outfielder who has had some arm soreness limit him to first base at times.
5. Nick Gordon, ss
Gordon initially struggled with his Midwest League assignment, but he’s adjusted well as the season has progressed. He has above-average tools with his speed, defense and contact ability, paired with the savvy of the son of a big leaguer. He needs time and strength gains to develop into an impact player.
6. Kohl Stewart, rhp
Drafted as a power pitcher, Stewart still is throwing hard, but he’s become a groundball pitcher as a pro, rather than getting lots of swings and misses. In his second full season, he’d allowed only one homer and had a healthy groundball rate (more than 2-to-1).
7. Stephen Gonsalves, lhp
Gonsalves has a frontline starter’s ceiling thanks to an excellent 90-93 mph fastball, aided by good deception, that has angle and finish. His changeup remains ahead of his hard, hybrid breaking ball. If he spins it better, watch out.
8. Adam Brett Walker, of
Walker rivals Joey Gallo for the title of Most Raw Power in the Minor Leagues. He may lack a real feel for hitting, but Walker was leading the minors in home runs and resembles Houston’s Chris Carter as a potential future .220-.230 hitter with 25-30 home run production.
9. J.T. Chargois, rhp
The Twins have been waiting for Chargois, who is pitching his first full season as a pro since he was a 2012 second-round pick. He had Tommy John surgery in September 2013 and came back hitting and exceeding 100 mph last fall and has had similar velocity this spring, reaching Double-A. His slider and changeup flash plus as well.
10. Nick Burdi, rhp
Burdi challenges Chargois as the hardest thrower in the organization as well as the entire minor leagues. His slider reaches the low 90s at times as well. Burdi hasn’t learned to read which hitters’ swings yet or adjust when they are catching up to his heat, but his two plus pitches should get him to Minnesota’s bullpen soon.
Rising
Taylor Rogers, lhp: If Rogers’ changeup were a bit better, he’d be close to being a member of the big league rotation thanks to a strong Triple-A start. His improved breaking ball has helped him annihilate lefthanded hitters (.178/.197/.186 in 118 ABs). Another lefthander, Mat Batts, continues to deal—he has a 1.97 ERA and 145-24 strikeout-walk totals through 142 pro innings and has reached high Class A.
Falling
Jake Reed, rhp. It doesn’t take long for relievers to turn it around, but Reed had struggled with locating his low-90s sinker at Double-A, putting him behind other harder-throwing future relief options in the system.
Hurting
LHP Lewis Thorpe (11) had missed the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Graduating
Byron Buxton (1) has taken over as the Twins’ everyday center fielder. Righty Alex Meyer (5) faltered as a starter in a return to Triple-A but has reached the majors in a relief role. Fellow righty Trevor May (9) has maintained a hold on a rotation spot, while Eddie Rosario (10) emerged as the everyday left fielder. J.R. Graham (20) has been a successful Rule 5 pickup in the bullpen.
Coming Aboard
The Twins’ first five picks in the 2015 draft
1. Tyler Jay, lhp, Illinois. Already signed, Jay has hit 99 mph with his fastball as a pro and has a dirty slider. He’s the favorite to be the first 2015 draftee to reach the majors.
2s. Kyle Cody, rhp, Kentucky. Had an erratic but mostly poor junior season, dropping him from first-round consideration; still has significant arm strength
3. Travis Blankenhorn, 3b, Pottsville (Pa.) HS. Athletic infielder has lefthanded pop. He’s already played some left field and first base as a pro.
4. Trey Cabbage, 3b, Grainger HS, Rutledge, Tenn. Like Blankenhorn, he’s a lefthanded-hitting corner infielder who fits best at third. He’s also played some left as a pro.
5. Alex Robinson, lhp, Maryland. Signed for $382,700, the college reliever could move quickly if he can harness the command of his power mid-90s heater.
2018 PROJECTED LINEUP
C Stuart Turner
1B Joe Mauer
2B Brian Dozier
3B Trevor Plouffe
SS Jorge Polanco
LF Eddie Rosario
CF Byron Buxton
RF Oswaldo Arcia
DH Miguel Sano
No. 1 Starter Phil Hughes
No. 2 Starter Jose Berrios
No. 3 Starter Kohl Stewart
No. 4 Starter Kyle Gibson
No. 5 Starter Trevor May
Closer Glen Perkins
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