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McMurfy -> RE: Players and prospects III (7/22/2014 5:30:50 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: SoMnFan
Keith Laws mid-season top-5 farm systems, on INSIDER
Ranking all 30 organizations based on their minor league talent is a major undertaking each winter, which is why I always decline to do a re-ranking during the season. There's simply no way I could do it justice given the amount of work it requires.
We've had a couple of major news events that affected two of the teams near the top of last offseason's rankings, however, and a slew of questions from readers about whose system is now at the top of the heap. So here's a revised look at the top five, considering only what's in the systems right now and excluding anyone on major league rosters.
1. Chicago Cubs
I know Cubs fans have heard this before, but just wait 'til next year, because this club is going to get good in a hurry, at least on the run-scoring side of the ledger. The system already had the minors' best collection of high-end bats, and it added several more over the past seven weeks, including the fourth-best prospect in the minors in shortstop Addison Russell, who came over with promising left fielder Billy McKinney in the Jeff Samardzija trade.
The Cubs also added catcher/left fielder Kyle Schwarber with the fourth overall pick in this year's draft. It's a pick I think was an overdraft in part due to doubts he will stick at either position, but he has raked so far in limited at-bats, mostly against younger competition. They used the savings on Schwarber's bonus to grab several high-upside high school arms later in the draft, including right-hander Dylan Cease, whose elbow ligament injury might require Tommy John surgery but who was seen as a top-15 pick talent before his injury. Cease has a fastball that can touch 100 mph and at times a plus breaking ball. The Cubs also have some promising hitters on their AZL club (rookie league) from their Latin American spending spree in 2013, including bonus babies Gleyber Torres (from Venezuela) and Eloy Jimenez (from the Dominican Republic), both just 17 years old.
These infusions have helped balance out a few disappointments in the system of players I ranked highly coming out of last year. Albert Almora has been a disappointment (.306 OBP in high Class A), continuing his record of awful walk rates in pro ball to date. C.J. Edwards and Pierce Johnson, their top two arms coming into the year, both have missed substantial time with injuries; Edwards is still on the shelf, and Johnson hasn't been effective at Double-A when healthy. Jeimer Candelario, whose only tool was his bat, hasn't hit at two levels and is about to be buried by the wave of infield prospects ahead of him. Scott Frazier, their sixth-round pick last year, appears to have the yips, with 12 walks and four hit batsmen in 22 batters faced.
Most of the successful arms in the system this year have been pitchers at low-Class A Kane County, particularly undersized Taiwanese right-hander Tseng Jen-Ho and 2012 draftee Paul Blackburn, which means the Cubs probably won't get the starting pitching help they need from their system in the next year or two. Fortunately for them and their fans, they have the bats to trade to acquire pitching from outside the organization.
This has to be the most loaded the Cubs' farm has been in at least 30 years.
2. Minnesota Twins
Byron Buxton, the No. 1 prospect in baseball coming into the year and No. 2 in my latest ranking, is finally warming up with Class A Fort Myers after missing nearly three months with wrist injuries, although he did sit out last weekend after getting hit by a pitch on his right wrist. (X-rays were negative for a fracture, so he should be able to come back soon.) Kohl Stewart, their first pick in last year's draft (fourth overall), is having an outstanding pro debut, throwing strikes and missing bats as a 19-year-old in low Class A, mollifying some concerns about his lack of polish and need to clean up his delivery. Jose Berrios, No. 6 in the system coming into the year, has made huge progress with his changeup, and he has torn apart the Florida State League.
This year, the Twins landed the draft's top position-player prospect, shortstop Nick Gordon, with their first pick then went against type with a run of power relievers, including a pair of right-handers who have hit 100 mph in college, Nick Burdi and Michael Cederoth, although I would have liked to have seen a starter mixed in there somewhere. Even with Miguel Sano missing the year due to Tommy John surgery and Max Kepler taking a step backward even though he's now healthy, it's the majors' second-best system.
3. Houston Astros
You might have heard this, but it's been a rough summer for the Astros. Carlos Correa, their top prospect, broke his fibula, although his long-term outlook isn't changed by that. Their top arm, Mark Appel, has a 10.80 ERA in high Class A. Delino DeShields Jr. took a ball to the face and has understandably had a down year since then.
And the team was unable to reach an agreement with its first- or fifth-round picks -- it's a long story -- turning one of the year's best draft classes into one of its weakest. On top of that, the Astros promoted two of their top prospects, George Springer and Jon Singleton, to the majors, which is good for them but bad for their rankings. It's still a deep system and I believe Correa and Appel have better things ahead of them in 2015, but it's not the unassailable machine it appeared to be five months ago.
4. New York Mets
The Mets have graduated a few prospects to the majors -- Travis d'Arnaud (No. 2 in the system coming into the year) and Jacob deGrom (No. 13) in particular -- but the guys still in the system have nearly all taken steps forward. Noah Syndergaard (No. 1) has had an excellent year in the pitchers' hell of Las Vegas. Brandon Nimmo (No. 5) is hitting for power now that he's out of Savannah, a terrible park for left-handed power hitters. Catcher Kevin Plawecki (No. 6) continues to receive well, as expected, but he also has hit well enough to push himself up to Triple-A in his second full season.
Eighteen-year-old shortstop Amed Rosario doesn't look out of place among older players in the New York-Penn League, and he has the instincts and reactions to stay at short if he can find some consistency in the field. And they added the most polished hitter in this year's draft class, Michael Conforto, who led Division I in OBP. They still have a ton of arms but are heavier on bats at the corners than in the middle infield or center, although Rosario might eventually make up for Gavin Cecchini's .194/.269/.247 line in high Class A.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates
There's a gap between the top four systems and the rest of the pack, with the Pirates leading the remainder despite losing budding superstar Gregory Polanco to the major league side. It has been a mixed year for the Bucs, with Jameson Taillon missing the season due to Tommy John surgery, first-rounder Reese McGuire scuffling at the plate (although he's young for his level) and first-rounder Austin Meadows missing nearly three months with a severe hamstring injury.
That said, there's still a lot of upside across the system, including Meadows, Taillon, right-hander Tyler Glasnow (now rolling after an early-season back injury), outfielder Harold Ramirez and MLB-ready starter Nick Kingham, as well as one of my favorite draft classes of 2014. The Pirates might not hold this ranking, however, if they use some of this prospect depth to add something to the big league squad before the end of July.
Damn your eyes!
I just went to post this, to contribute something, anything, and you beat me to it.
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