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McMurfy -> RE: Players and prospects III (7/17/2014 9:15:54 AM)
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From ESPN Insider
Keith Law
In ranking these players, I tend to weight upside or ceiling more heavily than proximity to the majors. The list includes a mixture of players as high as Double-A or Triple-A as well as a few who signed in recent weeks who have yet to make their professional debuts.
Players who have already passed the cutoff for Rookie of the Year eligibility are ineligible, as is anyone currently on a major league roster.
Note: I use the 20-80 grading scale in these comments to avoid overuse of the terms "average" and "above average" across the player comments. On that scale, a grade of 50 equals major league average, 55 is above average, 60 is plus, 45 is fringe or below average and so on.
1. Kris Bryant, 3B | Chicago Cubs
Age: 22 | Current Level: AAA (Iowa)
Preseason Ranking: 15
While there are players in the minors who offer higher ceilings -- notably the next two guys on this list -- Bryant is so close to major-league ready that his value at this moment is at least as high as that of Buxton, who's playing now but has been hurt most of the year, or Correa, who's out at least until the Fall League. Bryant has power, he's capable at third base, and his eye and approach continue to improve. Even if he's just a .260-.270 hitter -- probably a pessimistic forecast -- he'll still be a MVP-caliber bat who hits 30-40 homers and gets on base at a solid clip.
2. Byron Buxton, CF | Minnesota Twins
Age: 20 | Current Level: High A (Fort Myers)
Preseason Ranking: 1
It's been a rough year for Buxton, who missed almost three months with a pair of injuries that not only cost him development time but also left him rusty, even as he repeats high-A. Buxton's injury might push back his timetable, but I don't think it will change his ultimate ceiling at all; he remains an 80 runner with an 80 arm in centerfield, the right mix for a plus-plus defender. He has the bat speed and swing to hit for average and some power. If you want to yell and scream that he's really the best prospect in baseball -- instead of Bryant -- I wont put up much of a fight. I'd gladly take either guy in my system.
3. Carlos Correa, SS | Houston Astros
Age: 19 | Current Level: High A (Lancaster)
Preseason Ranking: 4
Correa was in the midst of a remarkable season as a 19-year-old in the high-A California League (albeit in a great hitter's park) when he broke one of his fibulas on a hard slide. That's a shame in so many ways: Correa's continued to improve his profile as a prospect at every stop, playing better and better defense and giving himself a real shot to stay at short once he gets to the big leagues. His plate discipline and power have both progressed more quickly than even Correa's fans in the scouting community expected. I'm hoping there's no long-term impact from the injury -- there shouldn't be -- but since Correa was never a plus runner there's at least a small risk this hurts his range and quickness at short.
4. Addison Russell, SS | Chicago Cubs
Age: 20 | Current Level: AA (Tennessee)
Preseason Ranking: 3
Russell will be the best prospect to change hands this season, going from the Oakland Athletics, who took him with the 11th overall pick in 2012, to the Cubs in the deal that sent Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the A's. A torn hamstring robbed Russell of most of April and May, but he's healthy now and hasn't lost anything at the plate or in the field. He has outstanding hands and plenty of arm for shortstop, which makes up for slightly limited range. His footwork has improved over the last year, so I don't really doubt that he can stay at the position. Those great hands also serve him well at the plate, helping him to accelerate his bat quickly and get good loft in his finish to create line-drive power. I see a high-average hitter with a strong OBP and 10-15 homers -- maybe even a few more -- who plays above-average defense at shortstop.
5. Corey Seager, 3B | Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 20 | Current Level: High A (Rancho Cucamonga)
Preseason Ranking: 18
Seager had some trouble in the Cal League late last summer after a promotion from low-A, but the Dodgers got him to firm up his front side and stay balanced through contact so he wouldn't overrotate and become too pull-oriented. That change was fortuitous: Seager has destroyed high-A all year, at his hitter-friendly home park and away from it, with 54 extra-base hits already through 80 games. He's not going to stay at shortstop, but he'll be the Dodgers' third baseman for six solid years once he gets to the majors at some point next year.
6. Francisco Lindor, SS | Cleveland Indians
Age: 20 | Current Level: AA (Akron)
Preseason Ranking: 6
The minors remain loaded with high-end shortstop prospects. Lindor leads that group in his defensive skills. He's got a combination of plus speed, good hands, and great instincts at short. He's hit well at every level, showing outstanding discipline at the plate ever since his first day in pro ball, even though he's always been young for his leagues. He probably won't have better than average power, but everything else here is plus or will be, which would make him a frequent All-Star and longtime starter at short.
7. Jonathan Gray, RHP | Colorado Rockies
Age: 22 | Current Level: AA Tulsa
Preseason Ranking: 12
Gray's absence from the Futures Game was probably a loss for fans. The former Oklahoma starter hits 99 regularly as a starter and pitches with a plus fastball and plus slider. The Rockies were aggressive with Gray, getting him right to AA to start his first full pro season, and it looks like the right call so far. He could be up by year-end, although the Rockies may choose not to put him on the 40-man roster so soon; either way, he should be in their rotation by Opening Day 2016 and projects as their eventual #1 starter.
8. Javier Baez, SS | Chicago Cubs
Age: 21 | Current Level: AAA (Iowa)
Preseason Ranking: 7
Baez still has the minors' best bat speed, with great wrist and forearm strength that translates into huge all-fields power, which you saw in his homer in the Futures Game off a hanging breaking ball. He's still rough around the edges at short, agile enough to play but lacking the finesse or the focus to do so at a major league level. That same Futures Game performance also saw him lollygagging on a groundball to short and delivering a lazy throw when he needed to fire one over to first base. Makeup may be the biggest concern here. Otherwise, Baez has the raw ability to become a 35-40 homer guy at second or third base.
9. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona
Age: 21 | Current Level: AA (Mobile)
Preseason Ranking: 9
Bradley had a mild elbow strain that shut him down for about a month this spring; he's back now but has struggled through four rehab starts in AA. When fully healthy, he has two plus pitches, a fastball up to 98 and a grade-70 curveball. He needs to develop better command, mostly of the fastball, but that's a tough thing to get a kid working on when his current goal is to not give up another home run to PCL opponents. I hope Arizona doesn't rush him back to AAA, and that these struggles are just a blip rather than a sign that the elbow issue was more serious.
10. Carlos Rodon, LHP | Chicago White Sox
Age: 21 | Current Level: Just drafted
Preseason Ranking: N/A
Rodon was the second-best prospect in this year's draft class, the best college player available, and one of the only players in the class with the ability to play in the majors this season. Rodon's slider is filthy, a grade-80 pitch in his best outings but more consistently a grade-70 pitch. It's a wipeout offering with late bite that I've seen hit 92 mph, even though his fastball is usually just 90-94. I can't imagine minor league hitters will be able to touch him. Rodon's stuff is so nasty he may not have to work much on fastball command or on developing a better changeup until he reaches the big leagues.
11. Miguel Sano, 3B | Minnesota Twins
Age: 20 | Current Level: AA (New Britain)
Preseason Ranking: 8
Sano's position here shifts because of changes in the players around him -- he's out for the year after Tommy John surgery. The projection remains the same - 35-40 homer power, .350+ OBPs, most likely in right field or at first base.
12. Dylan Bundy, RHP | Baltimore Orioles
Age: 21 | Current Level: High A (Frederick)
Preseason Ranking: 31
Bundy was back pitching in competitive games less than 12 months after ligament-transplant surgery, and the stuff was most of the way back, although he had a little velocity still left to regain. That controversial cutter remains his best pitch, a true swing-and-miss offering that mitigates the lack of life on his fastball, and he will show an above-average or better curveball as well. His feel for pitching and control are beyond his years, and if the Orioles need him in their bullpen in September he should be ready to help.
13. Hunter Harvey, RHP | Baltimore Orioles
Age: 19 | Current Level: A (Delmarva)
Preseason Ranking: 38
I love Harvey's stuff, with a fastball up to 97 that shows hard-boring life and a plus curveball when it's on, but he has to get more consistently on line in his delivery. At the Futures Game, he was striding too short, cutting himself when he landed, and trying to throw way across his body. He doesn't always do that, but the Orioles need to clear any such hiccups immediately. The changeup will probably develop by the time he reaches Frederick or Bowie. When that happens, Harvey will be a legitimate no. 1 or no. 2 starter candidate.
14. Lucas Giolito, RHP | Washington Nationals
Age: 20 | Current Level: A (Hagerstown)
Preseason Ranking: 21
Between low pitch counts and a prohibition on his two-seamer, Giolito is still pitching with shackles on. But what he shows is solid -- a fastball typically 94-96 with some downhill plane and a plus curveball, grade 65 or 70, with depth and tight rotation. He's a strike-thrower with control over command right now, and the changeup is still a work in progress. His arm strength, size, and possession of an out pitch give him top-of-the-rotation upside, but I don't think we'll see that potential in full until he reaches AA.
15. J.P. Crawford, SS | Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 19 | Current Level: High A (Clearwater)
Preseason Ranking: 46
Crawford's yet another athletic, quick shortstop who's shown great instincts and performed well even when playing among much older competition -- just add him to the pile, I guess. Crawford's one of the best defenders in the group, but not as strong as Russell or as fleet of foot as Lindor. He's shown an excellent approach at the plate, especially pitch recognition, even against lefties, and his glove isn't that far away from being major-league ready.
16. Noah Syndergaard, RHP | New York Mets
Age: 21 | Current Level: AAA (Las Vegas)
Preseason Ranking: 24
Thor is back, healthy, and throwing well, even thoughVegas is no picnic for pitchers. (He told me before the Futures Game he's more bothered by the heat than the altitude; when you throw straight downhill it's probably easier to live with pitching in thin air.) He's still mostly fastball-changeup, but will show a curveball and slider, neither of which are plus -- though the curveball does have some depth thanks to his size and really easy, fluid delivery. Syndegaard won't turn 22 until late August and has improved every year since he's entered pro ball, so I wouldn't bet against him reaching an even higher plane of performance after he reaches the big leagues.
17. Julio Urias, LHP | Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 17 | Current Level: High A (Rancho Cucamonga)
Preseason Ranking: 14
Ranking the 17-year-old 17th was a coincidence, I swear -- he's just this good, up to 95 consistently with an above-average to plus curveball and average or better changeup, deception in the delivery, lots of torque from his hip rotation, and shocking command for his age. We all should hope the Mexican-born Urias stays healthy as he navigates his late teens. The Dodgers are being extremely cautious with him, so he might not see the majors until 2016 or later.
18. Joey Gallo, 3B | Texas Rangers
Age: 20 | Current Level: AA (Frisco)
Preseason Ranking: N/A
Not sure I need to say much more -- this is the best power bat in the minors, a game-changing kind of hitter if he can make enough contact. He's already made so many adjustments in the last 24 months, really reducing his weaknesses now to hard stuff on the inner half, that he should reach that point in the next two years.
19. Kohl Stewart, RHP | Minnesota Twins
Age: 19 | Current Level: A (Cedar Rapids)
Preseason Ranking: 76
Stewart had the pure stuff in high school, but his delivery was so unpolished and command so inconsistent that he looked like a long-term project for the Twins with huge upside. His first full pro season has gone way better than I expected, as he's throwing a lot of strikes and getting groundballs, sitting 92-96 with a plus slider and future-average curve and change. As he builds up strength and durability he'll continue to rise on this list, with the potential that he's a future No. 1 starter.
20. Tyler Glasnow, RHP | Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 20 | Current Level: High A (Bradenton)
Preseason Ranking: 20
Glasnow missed time this April with lower back tightness and started a little slowly, walking more batters than you'd like to see as he essentially finished his spring training tune-ups in live game action. But he's been much closer to his old self lately, missing more bats and throwing more strikes overall. Glasnow throws a heavy fastball up to 98 and has two above-average secondary offerings now. He needs to work on repeating his delivery and commanding all three offerings, but there's no. 1 starter upside here now that he's healthy again.
21. Kyle Zimmer, RHP | Kansas City Royals
Age: 21 | Current Level: AA (Northwest Arkansas)
Preseason Ranking: 10
Zimmer's been cleared to throw and should make his 2014 debut in August, probably pitching most of the Fall League to add back the innings he missed due to a sore shoulder in the offseason and a lat strain that wiped out two more months. When healthy, he can show three plus pitches. He's also a a superb athlete who fields his position well. Unfortunately, the lost innings probably push back his MLB debut a full year.
22. Joc Pederson, CF | Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 22 | Current Level: AAA Albuquerque
Preseason Ranking: 41
Pederson should be the centerfielder in LA right now, but the Blue Man Group has run a series of corner outfielders out there rather than call up Pederson -- who isn't quite as good as his Albuquerque-inflated line might indicate, but would definitely give the Dodgers a boost on defense and in OBP. He still needs work against left-handed pitching, mostly picking up spin, but he's not getting much of that experience in the PCL anyway.
23. Henry Owens, LHP | Boston Red Sox
Age: 21 | Current Level: AA (Portland)
Preseason Ranking: 42
Owens doesn't throw hard, mostly 90-92 but up to 94 whenever he needs it, succeeding with tremendous deception in his delivery and one of the minors' best changeups, which has made him more effective against right-handed hitters than lefties throughout his pro career. His breaking ball is soft but good enough to get some lefties out, although it could be a solid-average pitch for him if he tightens it up and gets more velocity on it. He doesn't have the high ceiling of the arms above him on this list. But if his fastball command improves, he'll be a #2 or very good #3 starter for the Sox.
24. Raul Mondesi, Jr., SS | Kansas City Royals
Age: 18 | Current Level: High A (Wilmington)
Preseason Ranking: 22
Mondesi's unproductive season in high-A Wilmington -- he's hitting just .220/.268/.306 -- is easier to accept because he's 15 months younger than any other regular position player in the Carolina League, and younger than many players still in short-season ball. He's an elite defensive shortstop and plus runner with a short, clean swing that should produce lots of line-drive contact. He's playing against much older competition now, but when his body catches up to his instincts, that stat line will make a big jump.
25. Nick Gordon, SS | Minnesota Twins
Age: 18 | Current Level: Rookie (Elizabethton)
Preseason Ranking: N/A
The fifth pick in this year's Rule 4 draft, Gordon -- son of Flash and half-brother of Dee -- is a true shortstop with great feel at the plate and strong instincts across the board. He has the kind of awareness you'd expect to see in a former two-way player (he was 90-92 off the mound) whose father played two decades in the majors.
Gordon doesn't project to have much power, but could be a leadoff type thanks to his ability to hit for average, and he has a chance to be a difference-maker on defense, too.
26. Braden Shipley, RHP | Arizona Diamondbacks
Age: 22 | Current Level: High A (Visalia)
Preseason Ranking: 25
Shipley's curveball has come on quickly now that he's allowed to throw it, which gives him two plus offspeed pitches alongside the always-god changeup. His fastball can be straight, 92-95 mostly, and he'll have to work on keeping it down in the zone. He's an outstanding athlete and converted position player, which gives me more optimism that he'll be able to continue making adjustments, keep his fastball down and learn to mix all three pitches consistently.
AP Photos/Mike Janes
Blake Swihart could be the catcher of the future in Boston.
27. Blake Swihart, C | Boston Red Sox
Age: 22 | Current Level: AA (Portland)
Preseason Ranking: 56
Swihart was one of those dreaded 19-year-old high school seniors when the Red Sox took him in the first round of the 2011 draft, but his raw tools merited the pick and Boston has been rewarded for their patience with him. He's now 22 and playing well on both sides of the ball in Double-A. He's hit more homers this year (10) than in his previous two years combined, his receiving continues to improve and he's nailed 54 percent of opposing basestealers -- or would-be basestealers, given that kind of success rate. He's their catcher of the future, perhaps as soon as this time next year.
28. Jorge Soler, RF | Chicago Cubs
Age: 22 | Current Level: AA (Tennessee)
Preseason Ranking: 26
Soler is a monster if he can just stay on the field. He has electric bat speed, plus-plus raw power and the athleticism and arm to play an above-average or better right field. He's gotten bigger and stronger since signing in 2012, and in the 15 games he's managed to play in Double-A this year, he's hit .400/.456/.880 with 14 extra-base hits in 57 at-bats (tiny sample size caveat applies), indicative of his crazy strength. While he's been injured too often for me to rank him higher, he has the raw offensive ability to be a top 10 prospect if he gets the at-bats to work on his recognition of offspeed stuff.
29. Josh Bell, OF | Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 21 | Current Level: High A (Bradenton)
Preseason Ranking: 97
Bell earned a $5 million over-slot bonus in the 2011 draft but lost the 2012 season to a knee injury. With that said, he's now all the way back to where he was supposed to be, destroying high-A pitching from both sides of the plate with great bat speed and excellent hand-eye coordination. He hasn't shown much patience, but he's a very disciplined hitter who recognizes balls and strikes well. I think he ends up in left rather than right field thanks to a fringy arm, but this is a middle-of-the-order bat with the potential to hit for high averages and 25-to-30 homers a year.
30. Tyler Kolek, RHP | Miami Marlins
Age: 18 | Current Level: Rookie
Preseason Ranking: N/A
The hardest-throwing starter in the 2012 draft, the 6-6 Kolek can reach 101 mph, pitches comfortably at 95-98 and will show a sharp slider that he doesn't command yet. He's a huge upside play, with the fastball and frame of a No. 1 starter, needing the polish and third pitch that he never had to have while pitching in high school ball in rural Texas.
31. Jorge Alfaro, C | Texas Rangers
Age: 21 | Current Level: High A (Myrtle Beach)
Preseason Ranking: 44
Alfaro has two grade-80 tools in his power and arm and he has the bat speed to hit for average. However his plate discipline isn't progressing and his receiving is a mixed bag, sometimes above-average, sometimes appearing like he's taking a play or two off. There's still a substantial amount of upside here -- a catcher who can hit 20-to-25 homers a year and shut down the running game is a star even with a low .300s OBP -- but I'd like to see more consistent progress in his game.
32. Michael Conforto, OF | New York Mets
Age: 21 | Current Level: Just drafted
Preseason Ranking: N/A
Conforto was the most advanced college bat in the draft class this year, leading Division 1 in OBP despite playing in a major conference, while showing above-average power and adequate defense in left field. He doesn't have huge upside, but he's very close to major-league ready and should be at least an above-average regular with a higher ceiling if the power exceeds expectations. The Mets should fast-track him if his performance warrants it.
33. Mark Appel, RHP | Houston Astros
Age: 22 | Current Level: High A (Lancaster)
Preseason Ranking: 11
It's been a dismal year for Appel, whose raw stuff is fine but command has been off, in part due to a series of health issues. He had an offseason appendectomy to a nerve issue in a finger on his pitching hand as well as wrist tendonitis that required a cortisone shot a few weeks ago. He's still up to 97-98 and around the plate, but his feel for his slider has slipped with the finger and wrist issues, and he's giving up too much hard contact. He shouldn't be in Lancaster at all -- it's a horrible place to pitch -- but also needs to get 100 percent healthy before we're going to see the potential he showed at Stanford.
34. Brandon Nimmo, OF | New York Mets
Age: 21 | Current Level: AA (Birminghamton)
Preseason Ranking: 92
The Mets' first-round pick in 2011 was primed for a breakout once he escaped the pitcher-friendly environment of Savannah after last season. He's done just that, showing power at two levels now all while showcasing his trademark patience. I don't see him staying in centerfield and he might only be a moderate hitter for average, but very high OBPs and 20-plus homers a year with great defense in right would make for an above-average regular.
35. David Dahl, OF | Colorado Rockies
Age: 20 | Current Level: A (Asheville)
Preseason Ranking: 47
Dahl, like Bell the year before, lost nearly all of his first full pro season to injury, but has come all the way back this year, showing the kind of offensive skill set most scouts expected to see right out of the draft. Dahl worked hard in the offseason and got his body into incredible shape. Now, he's staying healthy, playing much better defense in center, and hitting for average and power. He'll need to walk more as he moves up the ladder. Right now, though, he's having so much success that he's not running the count deep enough to walk or strike out. He's a dynamic player who should see high-A before the summer is out.
36. Robert Stephenson, RHP | Cincinnati Reds
Age: 21 | Current Level: AA (Pensacola)
Preseason Ranking: 29
The Reds' top pitching prospect has had his problems with command and control this year, which isn't critical for a 21-year-old already pitching in AA. Still, the troubles probably push back his MLB debut date by at least a half season. Stephenson will pitch with a plus fastball and curveball, but there's some violence in his delivery that may be behind his command/control problems in 2014 -- although he had the same delivery last year and threw a lot more strikes. He'll need to develop his changeup and improve or restore his command to get back to that no. 1 starter ceiling.
37. Daniel Norris, LHP | Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 21 | Current Level: AA (New Hampshire)
Preseason Ranking: N/A
Norris has passed Aaron Sanchez as the Jays' top pitching prospect, thanks to some substantial delivery cleanup that has him more on line to the plate and better able to repeat his still-long arm action. He'll show three above-average pitches, all of which he does a good job of throwing for strikes, and a potential major-league out pitch in his slider. He's a long way from having average command, but at this time last year it was unthinkable that he'd improve enough to get a Futures Game appearance and a quick promotion to AA.
38. Jameson Taillon, RHP | Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 21 | Current Level: AAA (Indianapolis)
Preseason Ranking: 27
Taillon is out for the year after Tommy John surgery, unfortunately, and probably won't be back on the mound until the early part of 2014. Prior to the injury, I had him rated 27th overall, thanks to no. 1 starter stuff. But he suffers from a lack of deception on his fastball and a below-average changeup, rendering him more of an above-average starter prospect rather than an ace. Here's hoping everything comes back good as new once he's completed his rehab.
39. Jose Peraza 2B/SS | Atlanta Braves
Age: 22 | Current Level: AA (Mississippi)
Preseason Ranking: 99
Atlanta slid Peraza, a natural shortstop, to second base earlier this year, probably a full season sooner than necessary. But Andrelton Simmons is an all-world defender and has the shortstop position locked down in Georgia for at least the next six years. Peraza's now a 70 defender at short who's also a plus runner with a compact, quick swing that produces contact without power. I'd like him more if he were a left-handed hitter who could make better use of that speed, but he's still going to be an above-average starter in the big leagues who hits .300+ and plays great defense.
Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports
Just 19 years old, Austin Meadows could one day be a middle of the order bat in Pittsburgh.
40. Austin Meadows, CF | Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 19 | Current Level: A (West Virginia)
Preseason Ranking: 35
I tabbed Meadows as one of the prospects on my top 100 most likely to leap the top ten this season, only to see him pull a hamstring and miss nearly three months. He's in West Virginia now, with just ten games under his belt in 2014, so this evaluation is based primarily off what he was coming into the year -- a big, physical, tooled-up athlete with an idea at the plate who projects as a middle-of-the-order bat. In the field, Meadows is likely to end up in right at some point.
41. Joe Ross, RHP | San Diego Padres
Age: 21 | Current Level: High A (Lake Elsinore)
Preseason Ranking: N/A
It's good to see Ross healthy again after a shoulder issue wrecked his 2012 season. The injury never required surgery but limited him to 54 innings the whole year, and likely contributed to an uninspiring 2013 season in which his stuff was less crisp and he failed to miss bats. In the hitter-friendly Cal League this year, he's had better results with a lower arm slot that's increased the life on his 92-94 mph fastball without reducing the effectiveness of his changeup. He's become a true groundball pitcher now who can miss some bats despite having just a fringy third pitch in his slider, and his control has improved as well. He's probably a mid-rotation guy at this point, but he's so athletic that I wouldn't bet against him exceeding that.
42. Alex Meyer, RHP | Minnesota Twins
Age: 24 | Current Level: AAA (Rochester)
Preseason Ranking: 62
Meyer throws 97-100 with plus life along with a hard upper-80s slider, coming from a low 3/4 slot that, given his 6'9" frame, has to make right-handed hitters go all "John Kruk vs Randy Johnson" in the knees. He needs to improve his changeup, as he's always had significant platoon splits, and throw more strikes, although extremely tall pitchers often take longer to develop the body control to repeat their deliveries. He might end up a reliever, but he's had enough success as a starter that the Twins should and likely will continue to use him there, forcing him to work on that third pitch.
43. Alex Jackson, OF | Seattle Mariners
Age: 18 | Current Level: Rookie
Preseason Ranking: N/A
The Mariners took Jackson with the sixth overall pick this June, gave him an above-slot bonus, and immediately took away the catcher's gear that made up a significant part of his value, since he received fine and threw very well. He's still a very good prospect as a hitter, however, with huge rotational power and good hand-eye coordination. He has the arm to handle right field but is somewhat thick-bodied and may end up in left if he gets any slower. If he starts next year in low-A, he could see the Mariners' lineup by mid-2017.
44. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP | Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 21 | Current Level: Rookie
Preseason Ranking: 66
Guerrieri is just barely back from July 2014 Tommy John surgery, with three one-inning stints in the Gulf Coast League so far. He's been 91-94 so far, below his norm of 92-97, but the Rays used the time off (which included a suspension for a positive marijuana tested that didn't cost him any games) to clean up his delivery further. He had a plus breaking ball before the injury and outstanding control, both of which may take a little more time to come back as well. He has a higher ceiling than any other arm in the Rays' system right now, and at 21 with the injury behind him he has plenty of time to develop his changeup and work on fastball command.
45. Aaron Judge, OF | New York Yankees
Age: 22 | Current Level: High A (Tampa)
Preseason Ranking: N/A
The hype that's going to Yankees right-hander Luis Severino should at least be shared with Judge, who's done nothing but hit for power and get on base all year, forcing the Yankees to do what they should have done to start the season and send him up to high-A. Judge is a beast at 6-foot-7 and 230 (or more) pounds, but with a surprisingly short path to the ball for a guy his size and plenty of loft in his finish for power. He's also quite mobile for someone his size and should be an above-average or better defender in right, with plenty of arm to stay there as well. I like Severino, who has a loose, easy arm and a chance for three above-average pitches, but Judge is higher probability and could be the middle-of-the-order bat the Yankees have tried to develop for years.
46. Andrew Heaney, LHP | Miami Marlins
Age: 23 | Current Level: AAA (New Orleans)
Preseason Ranking: 34
Heaney's brief big-league stint proved disappointing, as his changeup wasn't at all ready for prime time and right-handed hitters feasted on his average fastball. That wasn't what the Marlins had hoped for, but Heaney still projects as a mid-rotation starter with a chance for three above-average pitches and very good command. Developing the change is key, as Heaney's slight frame probably won't allow him to add velocity down the road.
47. Rio Ruiz, 3B | Houston Astros
Age: 20 | Current Level: High A (Lancaster)
Preseason Ranking: N/A
Ruiz is one of the ten youngest position players in the Cal League, so even though he's hitting in one of the minors' silliest ballparks -- the whole team is hitting .292/.375/.453 this year, and hit .289/.384/.469 last year -- his performance is still promising, especially with such a high contact rate. He's adequate at third base, with good hands and a plus arm but mediocre range, good enough to stay there but unlikely to ever be plus. The potential with the bat makes him a potential above-average regular or star even in an outfield corner.
48. Lewis Brinson, CF | Texas Rangers
Age: 20 | Current Level: High A (Myrtle Beach)
Preseason Ranking: N/A
Brinson is a plus defender in center already and has substantial raw power from his quick, strong wrists, but he struck out 191 times last year in low-A and hit just .232, so the Rangers sent him back to Hickory for a second year. He improved across the board this year, as a good player should when repeating a league, and earned a promotion a week ago to high-A Myrtle Beach. Even if Brinson were to strike out 30% of the time in the majors, he has the defense and power to be an extremely valuable regular, 3-4 WAR a year or more depending on what other value he can provide with the bat.
49. Dominic Smith, 1B | New York Mets
Age: 19 | Current Level: A (Savanagh)
Preseason Ranking: 37
Smith's lack of power output in low-A is partially the result of his home park, as Savannah is a terrible place for left-handed power hitters, and partially the result of a whole-field approach that has Smith hitting for average while striking out at a pretty low clip -- well above the league mean or median despite his youth. Smith does have plus raw power, but we may not see much of it until he escapes the Sally League next year, much as Nimmo's power didn't come out until he left Savannah this spring.
50. Jose Berrios, RHP | Minnesota Twins
Age: 20 | Current Level: AA (New Britain)
Preseason Ranking: N/A
Berrios is a lot like Yordano Ventura for me -- undersized, loose-armed, flyball-prone, with incredible velocity from a delivery that doesn't make a ton of use of his lower half, actually showing a better breaking ball now than Ventura did at the same age. Berrios is a sub-six-foot right-hander and his fastball, while regularly 92-97, can be very flat, so hitters put it in the air rather than on the ground. His changeup has improved substantially since high school, however, and he'll have the three pitches to work as a starter, although I might try a two-seamer to see if he can get more life what will still be his primary pitch.
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