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djskillz -> RE: Players and prospects III (1/29/2015 10:57:55 AM)
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Here you go you cheap bastards. [:D] Seriously, Insider cost me $1 this year.
Buxton (Correa is #3 btw; we really couldn't screw up that pick):
AVG: .234OBP: .307OPS: .702HR: 4SB: 6
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Very little went right in 2014 for Lord Byron, who suffered everything but leeching during a season that saw him healthy enough for just 181 total at-bats, including his stint in the Arizona Fall League that also ended due to an injury. Buxton remained in great physical shape throughout his ordeals, and in October he still showed most of the same tools that made him baseball's best prospect going into 2014, though the rust in his bat was evident and he has lost a lot of important development time.
At full strength and health, Buxton is an 80 runner with an 80 arm and is capable of playing at least grade-70 defense in center field. His bat is quick and his hands are strong enough to drive the ball out to the gaps. He's more balanced than he was as an amateur, using his back leg more to generate power, which should end up above-average by the time he reaches his peak in his mid- to late 20s. His pitch recognition turned out to be better than expected -- given his background in rural Georgia, with few showcase appearances -- but lack of reps in 2014 meant he couldn't continue to improve in that regard, and he struggled to pick up sliders in fall league. His star ceiling hasn't changed, but the missing 400 or so at-bats around the wrist injury, the dislocated finger and the concussion have pushed his timetable back as much as a full year.
Top level: Double-A (New Britain) | 2014 rank: 1
Sano:
AVG: .236OBP: .344OPS: .915HR: 19SB: 2
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Stats listed are from 2013. Didn't play in 2014 due to injury.
Sano missed all of 2014 after Tommy John surgery and is expected to be ready to go this spring training, but the loss of a full year of at-bats -- he didn't even play in the AFL or winter ball -- won't do his development or timetable any favors. When healthy, Sano has grade-80 raw power, with the potential to hit 30-35 homers a year in the majors, generating that output with a rotational swing that makes good use of his hips and legs. He's done a good job of improving his ball/strike recognition, but will probably always be a 150-plus strikeout guy, as he can overswing and expands his zone when behind in the count.
He's always been rough at third base, and if the arm doesn't come all the way back, that'll speed his move to another position, likely first base due to his sheer size, although the bat will profile anywhere on the field. It may take him a few weeks or months to shake off the rust, and he's more likely to see the majors in 2016 than 2015. He's still the Twins' cleanup hitter of the future now that this injury is completely behind him.
Top level: Double-A (New Britain) | 2014 rank: 8
Meyer:
W-L: 7-7ERA: 3.52IP: 130.1SO: 153BB: 64
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Meyer still hasn't quite put everything together to be a front-line starting pitching prospect, but he's closer than he's been before, and with two plus pitches and a history of durability he would be wasting some of his talent if he had to go to the bullpen. Meyer has hit 100 mph and sits in the mid-90s with huge sink that will kill a lot of worms at Target Field, with a vicious slider up to 90 mph or so that kills right-handed batters. His control wavers, although taller pitchers often need more reps and time to get their deliveries in sync, and his discomfort with his changeup has long held him back against left-handed hitters. He altered his grip early in 2014, but wasn't that confident in the pitch until the end of the summer, when the Twins feel like it finally clicked for him (although it's really not even an average pitch on its own).
Anything that keeps left-handed hitters, who see the ball better from his low three-quarters slot, off his fastball is a good thing, and might allow him to jump into Minnesota's rotation this year, where the major league staff can continue to work with him on hitting the lower end of the zone.
Top level: Triple-A (Rochester) | 2014 rank: 62
Gordon: AVG: .294OBP: .333OPS: .699HR: 1SB: 11
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Gordon, the son of Tom Gordon and half-brother of Marlins second baseman Dee, was the fourth pick in the 2014 draft and the first position player taken, a testament to his very advanced feel for the game and ability to play a key position in the middle of the diamond. Gordon was a sophomore on Olympia High School's team when Jesse Winker was a senior, and he spent two summers out at showcases, so scouts have a lot of history seeing him. He also has played a lot of games against very good competition. He improved his footwork and hands at short this spring, to the point at which I think he'll stay at the position and play it well. He has the arm to play anywhere on the diamond but would probably have to go to center field if for some reason he can't stay at short.
His bat-to-ball skill is strong, and he has a good approach for his age, with doubles power at best and above-average but not plus speed, so drawing more walks to post a high OBP will be key for Gordon as he moves up the ladder. His ceiling is an everyday shortstop who can hit leadoff in a good lineup; the floor might be more of an 8- or 9-hole hitter if he doesn't develop a more patient approach.
Top level: Rookie (Elizabethton) | 2014 rank: Ineligible
Stewart:
W-L: 3-5ERA: 2.59IP: 87SO: 62BB: 24
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Stewart was a top football recruit, signed to Texas A&M to succeed Johnny Whatever We're Calling Him These Days, but always had a huge ceiling as a pitcher once he committed to baseball full-time and started receiving some real instruction on his delivery. He'll show four pitches, any or all of which could end up as plus, with a fastball already up to 97 mph and a slider that is probably closest to being a true swing-and-miss offering. He's a great athlete, as you'd expect, and the Twins have already started to refine his delivery to the point he can at least throw more strikes, although it is control over command, because in low Class A, he can pump it down the middle and the hitters might not even see it.
Stewart has the potential to front a rotation given a few more years of development; he might have to learn to pitch at 92-94 first so he can develop some command, and he needs to work in particular on his changeup before Double-A hitters force him to do so.
Top level: Class A (Cedar Rapids) | 2014 rank: 76
Berrios:
W-L: 12-8ERA: 2.77IP: 139.2SO: 140BB: 38
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Berrios was the Twins' second first-round pick in 2012, going 30 picks after Minnesota took Byron Buxton, and he has blown through the low minors with impressive strikeout rates. He'll pitch at 93-96 with his four-seamer, working up in the zone with it because he can blow it by a lot of minor league hitters, pairing it with a 75-79 mph curveball and a hard changeup in the mid-80s. The curveball is his best secondary pitch, tight when he finishes it but not consistent enough yet, while his changeup works when he keeps it down, but overall it's too firm. His arm action reminds me of Yordano Ventura's; it's loose, quick, very easy, maybe a little too arm-heavy (meaning he doesn't use his legs as much as he could). As a six-foot right-hander, Berrios doesn't get any plane on his four-seamer, so he's fly ball-prone and will probably run into more trouble with home runs as he moves up the ladder. Also, he left a start in late July with a sore shoulder. He skipped just one turn in the rotation, but he was just less sharp in general late in the season.
I've seen Berrios a number of times, dating back to the Excellence Games in his native Puerto Rico in 2012, and I've always had a sense Berrios' height and lack of life or plane on his fastball would push him to the bullpen. He has the ceiling of a third or fourth MLB starter if he keeps missing bats and can tighten up both off-speed pitches.
Top level: Triple-A (Rochester) | 2014 rank: Unranked
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