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2017 Free Agency

 
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2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 4:36:48 PM   
Ian Joseph


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It will get made by somebody, so I'll do it. So much to occur before free agency begins in March.

But, we can always talk about it. EDIT: would be nice to talk about the right year lol.

< Message edited by Ian Joseph -- 1/1/2017 5:20:09 PM >


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RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 4:38:31 PM   
Ian Joseph


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From the General Thread...

So, been doing some more reading. Rather than start calling people nuts or worse becuz they're advocating or suggesting trading stars/budding talent, I'll simply keep this about the facts. The first one is to remind you all that this is a business just as much, if not even more than a sport. The team will only do things that makes sense to both the field and the payroll.

Per various NFL sources, the 2017 projected salary cap will be between $168 and $177 million. Based on current contracts, the team is already estimated to have over $25 million in 2017 cap space. The team's 2016 payroll is approximately $156 million. You do the math on the difference.

With the slated cap increase in mind, I looked up the team's 2017 projected salary cap and contracts, based on who is currently on the roster. Saw some interesting things, many of which will put to bed some of the ideas running around here, but also provide potential solutions or opportunities to improve the roster.

* Harrison Smith has a dead money hit of $8 million, already counting towards the cap at $7.5. Doing the math of subtracting the dead from the cap total, it would cost us $500K to trade him (which is silly to consider anyway, to the point where I wont bring this idea up again, period). He's not going anywhere.

* Everson Griffen has a dead money hit of $2.4 million, counting towards $8.2 million. You'll save money by trading him, but you cant get someone of his caliber under contract for $5.8 million in 2017. He's not going anywhere, either.

* Brandon Fusco has a dead money hit of $1.6 million, counting towards $4.8 million. They'll save $3.2 million, but honestly, with as much as almost $180 million, there are waaaay worse contracts to carry, in terms of current value.

* Both Adrian Peterson ($18 million) and Sam Bradford ($17 million) have no dead cap dollars associated with their contracts. Each contract represents just over 10% of the team's salary. Releasing either/both could result in $35 million additional cap dollars. Just releasing/re-working ONE would create almost $20 million in more cap space.

* Alex Boone ($6.6 million). Sharif Floyd ($6.7 million) and Andrew Sendejo ($3 million) also have no dead cap dollars associated with their contracts.

* Other than Harrison Smith, the two players with the most amount of dead cap dollars are Laquon Treadwell and Trae Waynes, neither of which is a surprise, due to their draft position and duration of their current contracts. How much isn't important, since neither will be cut or traded.

So, if there are moves to be made with existing contracts, other than possibly with Fusco, it will be with the folks with no dead money dollars. No one expects the Vikings to pay Peterson $18 million, so add that on the $25 million right now. Now, add in the extra $12 million from the cap increase. Yeah, that's $55 MILLION in cap space.

You can sign Rhodes to a massive, front loaded extension and still have a truckload of money available to sign free agents. And that's before they do something with Bradford's current contract, if they elect to do so (I'm not sure they will). There is no fear of cap space, so there is no need to talk about it, like it will be a problem.


So, now that we know we can easily have over $60 million in cap space by releasing Peterson and making a few other corresponding moves on current contracts, what to do with the money?

Lets start with Tackles, since we need at least one. Here are some options.

Sebastian Vollmer, RT, New England. Only made $4.1 million last year, but he's 32.
Melenik Watson, RT, Oakland. Only made $1.2 with the Raiders and is only 27, BUT they will have a ton of cap space too.
Jordan Mills, RT, Buffalo. Only made $1.6 with the Bills and is 26.
Marshall Newhouse, RT, NYG. Only made $1.5 million and is 28. We seem to like NYG players.

Andrew Whitworth, LT, Cincinnati. Made $9 million in the last year of his contract, but is 35. Not sure we'd sign a guy that old to play on an o-line already marred with injuries.
William Beatty, LT, NYG. Only made $1.1 million, but is 31. I thought it was interesting both NYG starting Tackles are free agents. Can they afford both?
Reilly Reiff, LT, Detroit. Made just under $2 million in the last year of his deal with Detroit. Was he any good? I remember not wanting him in the draft that we got Kalil due to short arms.

Which brings us to Matt Kalil. Definitely an option if healthy, but is he? Can we depend on him. How much does he cost? If he signs a one-year, prove-it deal for maybe $5 million (he's a LT in a league with an increasing cap - we have to pay him SOMETHING), I'll do it in a heartbeat and let him compete. If it only comes at the price of a long-term deal, I take great pause (but I'll still consider it).

Is Joe Thomas available in a trade? If so, what are we giving up? I doubt it would be a player, since I don't think Thomas can be had for any of the guys listed above with little to no cap ramifications, other maybe Griffen, who I wouldn't trade anyway.


Lets say we want to get rid of Boone/Fusco and start fresh at the Guard position(s). Who is out there?

There are a lot of names, but only a few peak my interest.

* Luke Joeckel, G, Jacksonville. Converted LT that made $5.3 million on the last year of his rookie deal. He's only 25.
* Chance Warmark, G, Tennessee. Made just over $3.0 on the last year of his rookie deal. He's only 25 too.
* Ron Leary, G, Dallas. Made $2.5 million. He's 27.


Running back wise, I would prefer to draft someone to compete and eventually start, BUT, a particular somebody might be available (I doubt it actually happens, but there is always a chance).

* LeVeon Bell is an UFA. If he even sniffs free agency, I break the bank for him. A 3-down RB in his prime, that contributes to both the run and pass game?!?! Yes, please.

* He only made $1.1 million on the last year of his rookie deal and will get at least $12 million per season and 40 million up front. I do that in my sleep with 2/3s of Peterson's 18 million and still have $6 left for someone else. I'd even go as high as $15 million per. Oh yeah, he's 24.


There will be a lot more known in the next few weeks, with the playoffs, Super Bowl and other moves that will shape the offseason. We will see how this plays out, soon enough.

YMMV on the analysis.


Data Source: Spotrac.com

< Message edited by Ian Joseph -- 1/1/2017 5:20:21 PM >


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RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 4:58:40 PM   
Troy Newell

 

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Psst.......2016 is over!

< Message edited by Ian Joseph -- 1/1/2017 5:20:36 PM >
Post #: 3
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 5:41:27 PM   
Justin Sampson


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It's obvious Rudolph is our only red zone receiving threat. Unless Treadwell can get over whatever the coaches say are holding him back I think we should make a run at someone like Brandon Marshall in Free Agency. He's 32, but routinely wins one on one's in the RZ.

< Message edited by Justin Sampson -- 1/1/2017 5:44:18 PM >
Post #: 4
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 5:49:43 PM   
Ian Joseph


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Justin Sampson

It's obvious Rudolph is our only red zone receiving threat. Unless Treadwell can get over whatever the coaches say are holding him back I think we should make a run at someone like Brandon Marshall in Free Agency. He's 32, but routinely wins one on one's in the RZ.


Having a veteran WR wouldn't hurt the development process of Treadwell, as long as it allowed Treadwell to get on the field. As it stands, we have to decide what kind of offense we are going to be and what it looks like as it relates to our WRs.

We have Diggs, Theilen, Treadwell and Wright under contract. Johnson and Patterson are free agents. I doubt Johnson returns and Patterson is a wild card, since I don't know how the rest of the NFL views his value. So, we'll be getting at least one, maybe two in free agency and the draft.

I wouldn't mind Marshall or Fitzgerald, if he's cut. I wouldn't mind Alshon Jeffrey, but I don't know how he fits anymore.

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Post #: 5
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 5:58:19 PM   
Justin Sampson


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian Joseph

quote:

ORIGINAL: Justin Sampson

It's obvious Rudolph is our only red zone receiving threat. Unless Treadwell can get over whatever the coaches say are holding him back I think we should make a run at someone like Brandon Marshall in Free Agency. He's 32, but routinely wins one on one's in the RZ.


Having a veteran WR wouldn't hurt the development process of Treadwell, as long as it allowed Treadwell to get on the field. As it stands, we have to decide what kind of offense we are going to be and what it looks like as it relates to our WRs.

We have Diggs, Theilen, Treadwell and Wright under contract. Johnson and Patterson are free agents. I doubt Johnson returns and Patterson is a wild card, since I don't know how the rest of the NFL views his value. So, we'll be getting at least one, maybe two in free agency and the draft.

I wouldn't mind Marshall or Fitzgerald, if he's cut. I wouldn't mind Alshon Jeffrey, but I don't know how he fits anymore.

Theilen and Johnson are RFA. Patterson is an UFA.

Marshall looks like he will be cut. Fitzgerald would be ideal in any situation given his leadership abilities. I don't see him leaving AZ though. Jeffery is looking like he will be the big money WR FA this offseason given his age and skillset.

I'd throw Garcon into the mix as well. Although he might not be much of a RZ threat? More-so a Greg Jennings clone.
Post #: 6
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 6:42:43 PM   
Jeff Jesser


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Garcon will get resigned by the Skins IMO. They will lose Jackson to Philly.


That (the Skins) brings up another possibility (not for us, in general). I'm pretty sure Cousins isn't getting a big deal after that. They were already iffy with him but that just cemented his legacy in DC.
Post #: 7
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 7:32:44 PM   
Brad H


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Justin Sampson

It's obvious Rudolph is our only red zone receiving threat. Unless Treadwell can get over whatever the coaches say are holding him back I think we should make a run at someone like Brandon Marshall in Free Agency. He's 32, but routinely wins one on one's in the RZ.

Brandon Marshall is completely done. Had him on my fantasy team for about 12 weeks. He runs about 5-flat now. Makes Treadwell look like Usain Bolt.

< Message edited by Brad H -- 1/1/2017 7:34:41 PM >


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RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 7:34:07 PM   
Brad H


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jeff Jesser

Garcon will get resigned by the Skins IMO. They will lose Jackson to Philly.


That (the Skins) brings up another possibility (not for us, in general). I'm pretty sure Cousins isn't getting a big deal after that. They were already iffy with him but that just cemented his legacy in DC.

Cousins isn't the problem in DC. Their defense is a complete sieve against the run so they can't control the clock when they need to.

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Post #: 9
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 7:47:36 PM   
Justin Sampson


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Ricky Wagner RT Ravens, anybody?

It is difficult to pinpoint Wagner’s contract demands right now. There are not very many above average offensive lineman up for free agency this year, and many teams will have more cap space than they know what to do with. This situation could cause Wagner to be overpaid based on simple supply and demand.

Last offseason, the Chiefs signed Mitchell Schwartz away from the Browns. Schwartz is a comparable right tackle to Wagner, he may even be a slightly better player. The terms of his contract were $33 million over five years, with $15 million guaranteed. Wagner would be well worth $6.5 million per season to the Ravens, since offensive line play is so vital to their offensive success.
Post #: 10
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 8:03:40 PM   
thebigo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Justin Sampson

Ricky Wagner RT Ravens, anybody?

It is difficult to pinpoint Wagner’s contract demands right now. There are not very many above average offensive lineman up for free agency this year, and many teams will have more cap space than they know what to do with. This situation could cause Wagner to be overpaid based on simple supply and demand.

Last offseason, the Chiefs signed Mitchell Schwartz away from the Browns. Schwartz is a comparable right tackle to Wagner, he may even be a slightly better player. The terms of his contract were $33 million over five years, with $15 million guaranteed. Wagner would be well worth $6.5 million per season to the Ravens, since offensive line play is so vital to their offensive success.


As opposed to other teams?
Post #: 11
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 9:10:24 PM   
Mark Anderson

 

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Doubt Lions let him go but RG Larry Warford would be nice.
Post #: 12
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 9:19:03 PM   
ratoppenheimer


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.
.
i don't have a problem with sighing some older guys short term to fill some real needs...i don't like the idea of trading any of our young talent that we'd consider a future core player though....

i'd overpay a little for two years of whitworth if he can do the job...also, marshall played on the jets so it's hard to judge him - i would take him because he as a history of production and i've always liked him...i know he'd like to play with teddy....

we could probably sign whitworth and a top tier guard for $20m/yr and then draft another of each in the first four rounds....

i tend to think that our starting rt next year is already on the team....

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RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 9:40:39 PM   
ratoppenheimer


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.
.
something else i look for in free agency or the draft is the best run stopping d-tackle we can find - we need to rebuild the likes of the williams wall with joseph and a partner....

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RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 9:43:11 PM   
thebigo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ratoppenheimer

.
.
something else i look for in free agency or the draft is the best run stopping d-tackle we can find - we need to rebuild the likes of the williams wall with joseph and a partner....


I thought that was Joseph. I think with a healthy Floyd we'd be good, but that's pretty iffy.
Post #: 15
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/1/2017 11:55:24 PM   
Brian Nagel


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Gotta deal with our own FA's too.

They are:

(unrestricted)
Kalil
Munnerlynn
Andre Smith
Shaun Hill
Greenway
Newman
Cordarrelle
Rhett Ellison
Zach line
Jake Long
Asiata
Audie Cole
Justin Trattou
Jeff Locke


I let Kalil and Patterson go shopping before giving them offers. Remember they are both former 1st rounders, so that factors in the comp picks awarded if lost, depending on who we sign in FA. Not satisfied with "settling" on Kalil at LT.

Hill is done, Greenway is done, Jake Long and Andre Smith done, Asiata can go, Cole can go.

Only one's I'm interested in bringing back are Newman, Munnerlynn, and Trattou as a special teamer/backup DE. Newman is still playing at a high level. Munnerlynn...won't cry if he leave's, he'll probably get a better offer elsewhere. Zach Line is expendable. Jeff Locke can be replaced.
Post #: 16
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/2/2017 12:01:06 AM   
Todd M

 

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The only one I care about on that list is CP and we will likely be beat out on the offer we make.

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RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/2/2017 12:04:00 AM   
Brian Nagel


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Sirles, Thielen, and Charles Johnson are restricted FA's.

What kind of tender do you put on Thielen?

From the interwebs:

First round tender: 1 year, about $3.582 million
Second round tender: 1 year, about $2.516 million
Right of first refusal/Original round tender: 1 year, about $1.647 million

Those names are not just for show. As the name implies, other teams can sign away restricted free agents -- at a price. Another team can come in and offer a restricted free agent more money to sign elsewhere, but must also give away a draft pick -- namely the one mentioned in the type of tender. "Original round" refers to the round the restricted agent was initially drafted in. If he was not drafted, there is no draft compensation.

Right of refusal -- This means that a restricted free agent's team can match any offer made by another team trying to sign him away and retain the player at that price.
Post #: 18
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/2/2017 12:07:37 AM   
Brian Nagel


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

The only one I care about on that list is CP and we will likely be beat out on the offer we make.



Don't care for Newman?

Was leaning towards keeping Patterson a couple weeks ago. Then he completely fubar's that route today leading to the pick. I doubt he'll ever be more than a kick returner and gimmick player IMO. Expendable to me.
Post #: 19
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/2/2017 12:30:10 AM   
Todd M

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Brian Nagel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

The only one I care about on that list is CP and we will likely be beat out on the offer we make.



Don't care for Newman?

Was leaning towards keeping Patterson a couple weeks ago. Then he completely fubar's that route today leading to the pick. I doubt he'll ever be more than a kick returner and gimmick player IMO. Expendable to me.


Newman's too much into the twilight. When it could be over any time and you're just hoping to scratch out one more...meh.

CP with your example giving another example as to why he'll likely see a low ball offer from us. He's worth a low ball offer and can do things/be good for the team. Someone will believe they can get more out of him.

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I say Nay Nay!
Post #: 20
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/2/2017 12:43:44 AM   
thebigo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brian Nagel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

The only one I care about on that list is CP and we will likely be beat out on the offer we make.



Don't care for Newman?

Was leaning towards keeping Patterson a couple weeks ago. Then he completely fubar's that route today leading to the pick. I doubt he'll ever be more than a kick returner and gimmick player IMO. Expendable to me.


Newman's too much into the twilight. When it could be over any time and you're just hoping to scratch out one more...meh.

CP with your example giving another example as to why he'll likely see a low ball offer from us. He's worth a low ball offer and can do things/be good for the team. Someone will believe they can get more out of him.


The Patriots.
Post #: 21
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/2/2017 8:12:46 AM   
JC2015

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian Joseph

quote:

ORIGINAL: Justin Sampson

It's obvious Rudolph is our only red zone receiving threat. Unless Treadwell can get over whatever the coaches say are holding him back I think we should make a run at someone like Brandon Marshall in Free Agency. He's 32, but routinely wins one on one's in the RZ.


Having a veteran WR wouldn't hurt the development process of Treadwell, as long as it allowed Treadwell to get on the field. As it stands, we have to decide what kind of offense we are going to be and what it looks like as it relates to our WRs.

We have Diggs, Theilen, Treadwell and Wright under contract. Johnson and Patterson are free agents. I doubt Johnson returns and Patterson is a wild card, since I don't know how the rest of the NFL views his value. So, we'll be getting at least one, maybe two in free agency and the draft.

I wouldn't mind Marshall or Fitzgerald, if he's cut. I wouldn't mind Alshon Jeffrey, but I don't know how he fits anymore.

I see a need for two WRs

We need a 1st down and TD maker

We need a burner

The 1st down maker could be Treadwell. I give it about a 33% chance because he sure looked lost this year but perhaps with an offseason he will be ready

As for a burner, normally we could get someone in the 2nd or 3rd round but since we may need all those picks for OL perhaps take a flyer on Jackson and hope Treadwell turns it around

As for Fitz, man oh man if we could have ever gotten him and paired him with Moss that would have been a dream

I pass on Alshon with that much risk

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Post #: 22
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/2/2017 8:13:04 AM   
JC2015

 

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Next few months I am going to study OL prospects!

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If the Vikings don't make the playoffs this year Zimmer and Spielman should be gone
Post #: 23
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/2/2017 8:47:29 AM   
Jeff Jesser


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I wouldn't bring Munnerlynn back. He's been getting torched at a pretty regular rate the past couple weeks.
Post #: 24
RE: 2017 Free Agency - 1/2/2017 9:10:11 AM   
Andy Lowe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jeff Jesser

I wouldn't bring Munnerlynn back. He's been getting torched at a pretty regular rate the past couple weeks.


Yep Jeff, I think You roll with Alexander/Waynes as next men up

CB is one of the few areas we have good depth!
Post #: 25
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