From: Los Angeles, CA
From the General Thread...
So, been doing some more reading. Rather than start calling people nuts or worse becuz they're advocating or suggesting trading stars/budding talent, I'll simply keep this about the facts. The first one is to remind you all that this is a business just as much, if not even more than a sport. The team will only do things that makes sense to both the field and the payroll.
Per various NFL sources, the 2017 projected salary cap will be between $168 and $177 million. Based on current contracts, the team is already estimated to have over $25 million in 2017 cap space. The team's 2016 payroll is approximately $156 million. You do the math on the difference.
With the slated cap increase in mind, I looked up the team's 2017 projected salary cap and contracts, based on who is currently on the roster. Saw some interesting things, many of which will put to bed some of the ideas running around here, but also provide potential solutions or opportunities to improve the roster.
* Harrison Smith has a dead money hit of $8 million, already counting towards the cap at $7.5. Doing the math of subtracting the dead from the cap total, it would cost us $500K to trade him (which is silly to consider anyway, to the point where I wont bring this idea up again, period). He's not going anywhere.
* Everson Griffen has a dead money hit of $2.4 million, counting towards $8.2 million. You'll save money by trading him, but you cant get someone of his caliber under contract for $5.8 million in 2017. He's not going anywhere, either.
* Brandon Fusco has a dead money hit of $1.6 million, counting towards $4.8 million. They'll save $3.2 million, but honestly, with as much as almost $180 million, there are waaaay worse contracts to carry, in terms of current value.
* Both Adrian Peterson ($18 million) and Sam Bradford ($17 million) have no dead cap dollars associated with their contracts. Each contract represents just over 10% of the team's salary. Releasing either/both could result in $35 million additional cap dollars. Just releasing/re-working ONE would create almost $20 million in more cap space.
* Alex Boone ($6.6 million). Sharif Floyd ($6.7 million) and Andrew Sendejo ($3 million) also have no dead cap dollars associated with their contracts.
* Other than Harrison Smith, the two players with the most amount of dead cap dollars are Laquon Treadwell and Trae Waynes, neither of which is a surprise, due to their draft position and duration of their current contracts. How much isn't important, since neither will be cut or traded.
So, if there are moves to be made with existing contracts, other than possibly with Fusco, it will be with the folks with no dead money dollars. No one expects the Vikings to pay Peterson $18 million, so add that on the $25 million right now. Now, add in the extra $12 million from the cap increase. Yeah, that's $55 MILLION in cap space.
You can sign Rhodes to a massive, front loaded extension and still have a truckload of money available to sign free agents. And that's before they do something with Bradford's current contract, if they elect to do so (I'm not sure they will). There is no fear of cap space, so there is no need to talk about it, like it will be a problem.
So, now that we know we can easily have over $60 million in cap space by releasing Peterson and making a few other corresponding moves on current contracts, what to do with the money?
Lets start with Tackles, since we need at least one. Here are some options.
Sebastian Vollmer, RT, New England. Only made $4.1 million last year, but he's 32.
Melenik Watson, RT, Oakland. Only made $1.2 with the Raiders and is only 27, BUT they will have a ton of cap space too.
Jordan Mills, RT, Buffalo. Only made $1.6 with the Bills and is 26.
Marshall Newhouse, RT, NYG. Only made $1.5 million and is 28. We seem to like NYG players.
Andrew Whitworth, LT, Cincinnati. Made $9 million in the last year of his contract, but is 35. Not sure we'd sign a guy that old to play on an o-line already marred with injuries.
William Beatty, LT, NYG. Only made $1.1 million, but is 31. I thought it was interesting both NYG starting Tackles are free agents. Can they afford both?
Reilly Reiff, LT, Detroit. Made just under $2 million in the last year of his deal with Detroit. Was he any good? I remember not wanting him in the draft that we got Kalil due to short arms.
Which brings us to Matt Kalil. Definitely an option if healthy, but is he? Can we depend on him. How much does he cost? If he signs a one-year, prove-it deal for maybe $5 million (he's a LT in a league with an increasing cap - we have to pay him SOMETHING), I'll do it in a heartbeat and let him compete. If it only comes at the price of a long-term deal, I take great pause (but I'll still consider it).
Is Joe Thomas available in a trade? If so, what are we giving up? I doubt it would be a player, since I don't think Thomas can be had for any of the guys listed above with little to no cap ramifications, other maybe Griffen, who I wouldn't trade anyway.
Lets say we want to get rid of Boone/Fusco and start fresh at the Guard position(s). Who is out there?
There are a lot of names, but only a few peak my interest.
* Luke Joeckel, G, Jacksonville. Converted LT that made $5.3 million on the last year of his rookie deal. He's only 25.
* Chance Warmark, G, Tennessee. Made just over $3.0 on the last year of his rookie deal. He's only 25 too.
* Ron Leary, G, Dallas. Made $2.5 million. He's 27.
Running back wise, I would prefer to draft someone to compete and eventually start, BUT, a particular somebody might be available (I doubt it actually happens, but there is always a chance).
* LeVeon Bell is an UFA. If he even sniffs free agency, I break the bank for him. A 3-down RB in his prime, that contributes to both the run and pass game?!?! Yes, please.
* He only made $1.1 million on the last year of his rookie deal and will get at least $12 million per season and 40 million up front. I do that in my sleep with 2/3s of Peterson's 18 million and still have $6 left for someone else. I'd even go as high as $15 million per. Oh yeah, he's 24.
There will be a lot more known in the next few weeks, with the playoffs, Super Bowl and other moves that will shape the offseason. We will see how this plays out, soon enough.
YMMV on the analysis.
Data Source: Spotrac.com
< Message edited by Ian Joseph -- 1/1/2017 5:20:21 PM >
Hate the message, not the messenger.
Enjoy the process; crave the goal.