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2017 Twins Predictions

 
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2017 Twins Predictions - 2/7/2017 12:37:48 PM   
TJSweens


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Predict everything from the number of Twins wins to the number of posts about Joe Mauer's off season conditioning to the number of calls for Falvey to be fired for the coming season.

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When you have good players that aren’t particularly good leaders, their coaches or managers will say that they “lead by example.” It’s a polite way of saying they don’t lead.
Post #: 1
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/7/2017 12:41:29 PM   
MDK


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75 win, 1000 Mauer posts, 5000 calls for Falvey to be fired.

I reserve the right to change my win prediction before the start of the season.

I have no reason to change my predictions on Mauer or Falvey.

_____________________________

And again I say unto you, It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.
Post #: 2
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/7/2017 12:45:13 PM   
TJSweens


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Actually, Deep Thought, is still crunching the numbers to come up with the over / under on how many posts concerning any of Joe Mauer's, conditioning, attitude, contract, general worthlessness and preferred sex positions. There is an outside chance the number will available by the start of the season and a guarantee that it will be greater than 42.

_____________________________

When you have good players that aren’t particularly good leaders, their coaches or managers will say that they “lead by example.” It’s a polite way of saying they don’t lead.
Post #: 3
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/7/2017 6:42:42 PM   
ewen21

 

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There are a few Muaer posts in here already. I feel encouraged

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Twins off-season: ZZzzzzzzz
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RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/7/2017 6:48:35 PM   
ewen21

 

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I think 70 wins would be a major accomplishment.

On the Mauer front I pick June 16 for the over under on a DL stint

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Twins off-season: ZZzzzzzzz
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RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/7/2017 8:22:54 PM   
CPAMAN

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MDK

75 win, 1000 Mauer posts, 5000 calls for Falvey to be fired.

I reserve the right to change my win prediction before the start of the season.

I have no reason to change my predictions on Mauer or Falvey.


I think you may have to put a zero behind your Mauer post prediction Miles. It may be closer to 10,000 than 1,000 and of that number, 50% will be from ewen.

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RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/7/2017 8:25:14 PM   
CPAMAN

 

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I predict a fair-weather, regularly scheduled game this season with under 10,000 in attendance.

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RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/7/2017 8:26:17 PM   
CPAMAN

 

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I predict Matt will report on no less than six new food items he tries including the Byuongho "Park it" Classic Burger.

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Minnesota professional sports can't be awful forever, can they?
Post #: 8
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/7/2017 8:33:52 PM   
Mr. Ed


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Lyle asked me on Facebook for my prognosis on the Twins.

My reply was

Grim


Is going to be, since they did so little to improve a horrific pitching staff. They have overpaid slugs, a kid they over-thought and tinkered with success, and a bullpen that sucks.

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Post #: 9
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/8/2017 5:25:32 AM   
ewen21

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

quote:

ORIGINAL: MDK

75 win, 1000 Mauer posts, 5000 calls for Falvey to be fired.

I reserve the right to change my win prediction before the start of the season.

I have no reason to change my predictions on Mauer or Falvey.


I think you may have to put a zero behind your Mauer post prediction Miles. It may be closer to 10,000 than 1,000 and of that number, 50% will be from ewen.


I surely hope not

The last thing we need is some phantom injury saga a la bilateral leg weakness in 2011. 5,000 is a tall order even for me. A lot of things need to break right in order for me to hit that milestone.

As it stands today, my over/under on wins is 68. I don't see how we can expect much better than that. A whole lot of scenarios need to play out in the Twins favor in order for the team to be much better than last year

I would at least like to see them finish strong with they young players having a big part in that. Didn't the 2000 team sweep Cleveland at the end of the season? I would like to see some sort of sign this team is climbing out of the abyss. I have to use my imagination to see it now and that is not genuine or anything based in reality. It's nice to think positively and believe this team can play .500 ball, but it you think that way it can't be based on anything anyone has seen. This was a 103 loss team last year and it is virtually the same

Back to Mauer...
I think the Twins need to understand what a negative affect Joe has on everything. If young players are being asked to follow Joe's lead as a player then it is a huge problem. Even if they aren't it is not a good thing for any team to have a veteran like Joe Mauer operating under his own rules. It can't be a good thing for a player to take that laisse faire/nonshalant Mauer approach, thinking they are doing things as the Twins want, and then being benched or reprimanded. It creates a very confusing and unstable environment. There cannot be any true accountability unless Mauer is held accountable. One easy way to ensure some measure of accountability would be to sit Joe opening day, the explanation being....
We have to be careful. Everyone saw how Joe has worn down as the last few seasons have progressed. It is entirely too much to ask Joe to be a full time player. He was overworked last year. It will not happen again

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Twins off-season: ZZzzzzzzz
Post #: 10
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/8/2017 8:15:44 AM   
TJSweens


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I regret to inform you all that there will be no published over/under for Joe Mauer posts. Deep Thought couldn't keep up with the ever changing variables and unable to live with its shame any longer, committed harikari ... or what ever passes for harikari with computers.

_____________________________

When you have good players that aren’t particularly good leaders, their coaches or managers will say that they “lead by example.” It’s a polite way of saying they don’t lead.
Post #: 11
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/8/2017 8:30:55 AM   
Mr. Ed


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

I regret to inform you all that there will be no published over/under for Joe Mauer posts. Deep Thought couldn't keep up with the ever changing variables and unable to live with its shame any longer, committed harikari ... or what ever passes for harikari with computers.


Format C

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Minnesota Sports: Home of Under-Achieving and Disappointment.
Post #: 12
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/8/2017 3:28:06 PM   
Steve Lentz


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I don't know how we can ever read another Mauer post. We've read the same things over and over and............

I for one would like to see some posts on Buxton and Sano and Berrios, the future of the Twins.

< Message edited by Steve Lentz -- 2/8/2017 3:30:04 PM >


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RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/8/2017 3:32:42 PM   
Trekgeekscott


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

I think 70 wins would be a major accomplishment.

On the Mauer front I pick June 16 for the over under on a DL stint



He's spent exactly zero days on the DL the last two years combined.

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Post #: 14
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/8/2017 3:35:11 PM   
TJSweens


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Joined: 7/16/2007
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: Steve Lentz

I don't know how we can ever read another Mauer post. We've read the same things over and over and............

I for one would like to see some posts on Buxton and Sano and Berrios, the future of the Twins.


Oh don't worry. We'll get to those busts ... er ... players before this is over.

_____________________________

When you have good players that aren’t particularly good leaders, their coaches or managers will say that they “lead by example.” It’s a polite way of saying they don’t lead.
Post #: 15
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/8/2017 3:39:05 PM   
Steve Lentz


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Steve Lentz

I don't know how we can ever read another Mauer post. We've read the same things over and over and............

I for one would like to see some posts on Buxton and Sano and Berrios, the future of the Twins.


Oh don't worry. We'll get to those busts ... er ... players before this is over.



_____________________________

"Do you expect me to talk? No Mr. Bond I expect you to die."
Post #: 16
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/8/2017 3:45:45 PM   
CPAMAN

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

I think 70 wins would be a major accomplishment.

On the Mauer front I pick June 16 for the over under on a DL stint



He's spent exactly zero days on the DL the last two years combined.


Except he road the bench for most of the last three weeks last season in order to not fall into the .250's for his BA. He was in free-fall mode early August to his final 2016 AB.

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Minnesota professional sports can't be awful forever, can they?
Post #: 17
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/8/2017 3:47:43 PM   
CPAMAN

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Steve Lentz

I don't know how we can ever read another Mauer post. We've read the same things over and over and............

I for one would like to see some posts on Buxton and Sano and Berrios, the future of the Twins.


Oh don't worry. We'll get to those busts ... er ... players before this is over.


Exactly. And I take exception to this challenge as I thought I/we had adequately complained about each of those players a minimum of ten times each last season.

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Minnesota professional sports can't be awful forever, can they?
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RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/8/2017 3:49:26 PM   
twinsfan


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quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

I think 70 wins would be a major accomplishment.

On the Mauer front I pick June 16 for the over under on a DL stint



He's spent exactly zero days on the DL the last two years combined.


Except he road the bench for most of the last three weeks last season in order to not fall into the .250's for his BA. He was in free-fall mode early August to his final 2016 AB.

Let's not revise history here.

_____________________________

If a middle reliever blows a lead, it typically goes in the books as a blown save. Sweeney is wrong.
Post #: 19
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/9/2017 7:25:06 PM   
CPAMAN

 

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Joined: 3/17/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

I think 70 wins would be a major accomplishment.

On the Mauer front I pick June 16 for the over under on a DL stint



He's spent exactly zero days on the DL the last two years combined.


Except he road the bench for most of the last three weeks last season in order to not fall into the .250's for his BA. He was in free-fall mode early August to his final 2016 AB.

Let's not revise history here.


These are Mauer's stats for September of 2016 season:

Mauer, J MIN 1B 12 45 4 5 2 0 1 2 8 10 0 0 .111 .245 .222 .468

How exactly am I revising history Matt? These are the facts. Joe was out of the lineup the final 18 or so games including the final October weekend series of 2016.

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Minnesota professional sports can't be awful forever, can they?
Post #: 20
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/10/2017 8:23:52 AM   
twinsfan


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quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

I think 70 wins would be a major accomplishment.

On the Mauer front I pick June 16 for the over under on a DL stint



He's spent exactly zero days on the DL the last two years combined.


Except he road the bench for most of the last three weeks last season in order to not fall into the .250's for his BA. He was in free-fall mode early August to his final 2016 AB.

Let's not revise history here.


These are Mauer's stats for September of 2016 season:

Mauer, J MIN 1B 12 45 4 5 2 0 1 2 8 10 0 0 .111 .245 .222 .468

How exactly am I revising history Matt? These are the facts. Joe was out of the lineup the final 18 or so games including the final October weekend series of 2016.

The games at that point meant nothing, so there was no point in putting any unnecessary stress on his body.

You can say I'm working with alternative facts, and that's fine, because that's the new norm.

_____________________________

If a middle reliever blows a lead, it typically goes in the books as a blown save. Sweeney is wrong.
Post #: 21
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/10/2017 12:51:07 PM   
CPAMAN

 

Posts: 27360
Joined: 3/17/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

I think 70 wins would be a major accomplishment.

On the Mauer front I pick June 16 for the over under on a DL stint



He's spent exactly zero days on the DL the last two years combined.


Except he road the bench for most of the last three weeks last season in order to not fall into the .250's for his BA. He was in free-fall mode early August to his final 2016 AB.

Let's not revise history here.


These are Mauer's stats for September of 2016 season:

Mauer, J MIN 1B 12 45 4 5 2 0 1 2 8 10 0 0 .111 .245 .222 .468

How exactly am I revising history Matt? These are the facts. Joe was out of the lineup the final 18 or so games including the final October weekend series of 2016.

The games at that point meant nothing, so there was no point in putting any unnecessary stress on his body.

You can say I'm working with alternative facts, and that's fine, because that's the new norm.


Alternative facts? That sounds like another way of "spinning things your way in order for whatever events happens to come out in a way that meets your opinion". Or, disregard the facts entirely, "I see things my way and that is the way it actually happened".

< Message edited by CPAMAN -- 2/10/2017 12:54:22 PM >


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Minnesota professional sports can't be awful forever, can they?
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RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/10/2017 2:34:10 PM   
twinsfan


Posts: 36538
Joined: 12/21/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

I think 70 wins would be a major accomplishment.

On the Mauer front I pick June 16 for the over under on a DL stint



He's spent exactly zero days on the DL the last two years combined.


Except he road the bench for most of the last three weeks last season in order to not fall into the .250's for his BA. He was in free-fall mode early August to his final 2016 AB.

Let's not revise history here.


These are Mauer's stats for September of 2016 season:

Mauer, J MIN 1B 12 45 4 5 2 0 1 2 8 10 0 0 .111 .245 .222 .468

How exactly am I revising history Matt? These are the facts. Joe was out of the lineup the final 18 or so games including the final October weekend series of 2016.

The games at that point meant nothing, so there was no point in putting any unnecessary stress on his body.

You can say I'm working with alternative facts, and that's fine, because that's the new norm.


Alternative facts? That sounds like another way of "spinning things your way in order for whatever events happens to come out in a way that meets your opinion". Or, disregard the facts entirely, "I see things my way and that is the way it actually happened".

There's an entire Wikipedia page on it already. Trump's team works fast!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_facts

"Alternative facts" is a phrase used by U.S. Counselor to the President Kellyanne Conway during a Meet the Press interview on January 22, 2017, in which she defended White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer's false statement about the attendance at Donald Trump's inauguration as President of the United States. When pressed during the interview with Chuck Todd to explain why Spicer "utter[ed] a provable falsehood", Conway stated that Spicer was giving "alternative facts." Todd responded, "Look, alternative facts are not facts. They're falsehoods."

Perfectly acceptable explanation.

_____________________________

If a middle reliever blows a lead, it typically goes in the books as a blown save. Sweeney is wrong.
Post #: 23
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/10/2017 2:39:50 PM   
MDK


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http://www.twinkietown.com/2017/2/10/14561156/2017-minnesota-twins-mlb-pecota-peculiarities

a portion of the article

Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections earlier this week, and Nate Silver’s prognostication engine dug the Twins, — surprising, given the 103-loss abomination from which the erstwhile Senators are rebounding.

The startlingly rosy projection largely stems from BP’s bullish view on the development of Twins youngsters Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios and Tyler Duffey and improvements wrought by the addition of new catcher Jason Castro.

Today I’m taking a look at the PECOTA numbers to highlight a few particularly noteworthy projections.

The reports of Jason Castro’s framing are not greatly exaggerated
The new regime’s big free-agent acquisition fit the “New sabermetrically inclined front office shakes things up” narrative quite nicely: they signed Jason Castro, a feeble-hitting catcher who could steal strikes with his excellent framing skills, embarking on exactly the kind of remodel that Falvey and Levine’s more archaic predecessors would have eschewed.

The 2016 Twins’ catchers — largely Kurt Suzuki with some Juan Centeno and John Ryan Murphy mixed in for bad measure — were worth -16.3 framing runs and -22.7 Fielding Runs Above Average last season, the second-worst mark in MLB, per Baseball Prospectus.

Here’s how Fangraphs illustrated the difference between Suzuki and Castro in the above linked article, using their Framing Runs metric:

SEE ATTACHED Photo at the end of the post


With Kepler, Buxton and Rosario playing a full season in the outfield and Castro behind the plate — the projected starting lineup that received the bulk of the playing time in BP’s simulations — the Twins are projected to be 35.1 Fielding Runs Above Average, good for the third-best defense in the majors. (That impressive number is calculated with Miguel Sano receiving 65% of the playing time at the hot corner, for what it’s worth.)

All told, PECOTA projects huge improvements for the Twins defense, and the bulk of that improvement comes from simply installing Jason Castro behind the plate.


The article goes on to discuss PECOTA's predictions for starting pitchers and also has a section on batting averages, a stat that Dick Bremer, Bert Blyleven and Mark love to embrace.


Thumbnail Image


Attachment (1)

_____________________________

And again I say unto you, It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.
Post #: 24
RE: 2017 Twins Predictions - 2/10/2017 2:42:21 PM   
MDK


Posts: 4746
Status: offline
A 24 run differential between Castro and Suzuki is pretty significant. I don't think the framing stat includes ability to stop opponents running game.

Suzuki was a terrible defensive catcher.

_____________________________

And again I say unto you, It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.
Post #: 25
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