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RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/7/2018 5:32:10 PM   
Tom Sykes


Posts: 2089
Joined: 7/27/2007
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline
Now that Remmers is the best OG in the league, I'm sure Abdullah's happier than hell that we picked him up.
Post #: 8151
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/7/2018 5:37:38 PM   
Daniel Lee Young


Posts: 4436
Joined: 9/21/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

quote:

ORIGINAL: Daniel Lee Young

Call me old school but I like an OL who flat out pancakes his guy then looks for the next victim...
quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

quote:

ORIGINAL: kurt bilben

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ricky J

Wow, Brian O'Neill!

https://twitter.com/NicholasJOlson/status/1059863970817998850


For people that don't do Twitter:

Nick Olson@NicholasJOlson
Offensive tackles with at least 200 pass blocking snaps this year and zero sacks surrendered:

• Tyron Smith
• Terron Armstead
• Rob Haverstein
• James Hurst
• Jason Peters
• Brian O'Neill
• Cordy Glenn



Can Spiels get some love Perhaps...



A kudos to Rick and scouts for the pick. Broken record but Oneil's RAS and SPARQ were near top of the class. Another kudos to the coaches for a helluva job in development.




Are you saying Oneil does this or you don't see him doing it?

No, matter where you are on the spectrum, this is very impressive. Rookie making a difference this year. I didn't expect him to until next year. Plus you might be looking at our future LT (and 12M cap savings)

If Remmers is growing into a solid guard (all I'm hoping for). Elf continues to improve. Reif gets healthy (and back to average to slightly above average. Oneil continues on the same trajectory.

That might mean Dora/Izzy or Compton is our weak link. THAT you can scheme around. I personally hope Izzy takes the job and continues to grow.

I don’t have a dvr so I can’t isolate o’neil And watch shady he does..

Seeing is believing for me...

Hill on the bench and o’neil Starting is a good thing

_____________________________

"Thou shall not bear false witness"
There will be hell to pay.
Be careful when you follow the masses, sometimes the “M” is silent.......
Post #: 8152
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/7/2018 5:45:01 PM   
Tom Sykes


Posts: 2089
Joined: 7/27/2007
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline
Andrew Krammer
‏ @Andrew_Krammer
18m18 minutes ago

Andrew Krammer Retweeted Justin Ekstrom

Thomas had been injured, but wasn’t waived with an injury designation. Vikings jumped on an experienced kick returner.

........

(and his 2 goat / 1 chicken contract fit nicely under our cap)
Post #: 8153
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/7/2018 6:20:00 PM   
Pager


Posts: 8061
Joined: 7/19/2007
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Plus you might be looking at our future LT (and 12M cap savings)

Reiff dead cap

2019... 6.6 ml
2020....4.4 ml
2021....2.2 ml

Reiff isn't going anywhere until maybe 2021. That is the last year of O'Neal's rookie deal



A trade is a possibility.

_____________________________

Left picking up the pieces.
Post #: 8154
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/7/2018 6:24:30 PM   
GopherFan34

 

Posts: 448
Joined: 4/25/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: ratoppenheimer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Plus you might be looking at our future LT (and 12M cap savings)

Reiff dead cap

2019... 6.6 ml
2020....4.4 ml
2021....2.2 ml

Reiff isn't going anywhere until maybe 2021. That is the last year of O'Neal's rookie deal



reiff is solid at lt...no reason to rush his departure...perhaps we can restructure him and save some short-term cap money....

at this time i really do not see us extending barr....

possible cap savings next season:

sendejo....$5.5m
griffen....$10.5m
waynes....$9m
rudolph....$7.6m
remmers....$4.5m



Do they cut or not resign
Sendejo, yes
Griffen,No
Waynes, No
Rudolph, maybe
Remmers, yes
I think they keep Waynes over Barr. Zimmer choice
Post #: 8155
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/7/2018 6:24:59 PM   
kurt bilben


Posts: 18454
Joined: 7/28/2007
From: socal as well
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Daniel Lee Young

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

quote:

ORIGINAL: Daniel Lee Young

Call me old school but I like an OL who flat out pancakes his guy then looks for the next victim...
quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

quote:

ORIGINAL: kurt bilben

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Ricky J

Wow, Brian O'Neill!

https://twitter.com/NicholasJOlson/status/1059863970817998850


For people that don't do Twitter:

Nick Olson@NicholasJOlson
Offensive tackles with at least 200 pass blocking snaps this year and zero sacks surrendered:

• Tyron Smith
• Terron Armstead
• Rob Haverstein
• James Hurst
• Jason Peters
• Brian O'Neill
• Cordy Glenn



Can Spiels get some love Perhaps...



A kudos to Rick and scouts for the pick. Broken record but Oneil's RAS and SPARQ were near top of the class. Another kudos to the coaches for a helluva job in development.




Are you saying Oneil does this or you don't see him doing it?

No, matter where you are on the spectrum, this is very impressive. Rookie making a difference this year. I didn't expect him to until next year. Plus you might be looking at our future LT (and 12M cap savings)

If Remmers is growing into a solid guard (all I'm hoping for). Elf continues to improve. Reif gets healthy (and back to average to slightly above average. Oneil continues on the same trajectory.

That might mean Dora/Izzy or Compton is our weak link. THAT you can scheme around. I personally hope Izzy takes the job and continues to grow.

I don’t have a dvr so I can’t isolate o’neil And watch shady he does..

Seeing is believing for me...

Hill on the bench and o’neil Starting is a good thing



Isolating on O’Neill is interesting. Thought he’d get overwhelmed by Jordan (Saints). He got beat a few times, but generally held up pretty well. Light years better then Hill (in the playoffs last year)

Even his first game vs the Pack he was solid.

Last week he was nearing dominant, at least in pass pro playing against rather weak competition.

Against the Eagles he got bull rushed a little more (Which he’s supposed to be succeptible to. Again he held up well.

Pretty sure they don’t consider him a rookie in that locker room right now.
Post #: 8156
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/7/2018 7:36:23 PM   
thebigo


Posts: 24569
Joined: 7/14/2007
Status: online
On Cooks long run, the Safety that finally tackled him with the desperation dive at his heels had about a 10 yard start on him, Cook was outrunning the Safety by about 1 yard every 5 yards.
Post #: 8157
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/7/2018 7:38:52 PM   
Todd M

 

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Joined: 7/14/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: thebigo

On Cooks long run, the Safety that finally tackled him with the desperation dive at his heels had about a 10 yard start on him, Cook was outrunning the Safety by about 1 yard every 5 yards.


Maybe it would be the rare player that could have gone all the way on that but avg and above gets most of what Cook got on that.

_____________________________

Existential midlife crisis mode engaged.
Post #: 8158
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/7/2018 8:10:47 PM   
Pager


Posts: 8061
Joined: 7/19/2007
Status: online
Rewatched the game.

On the fumble return for a TD, Wilson sent Stafford flying, even though he was well behind the play. Loved it. You get a QB outside the pocket (like when a QB lines up at WR) give him a good shot.

Izzy didn't have as good of game as I thought in real time. Wonder what his PFF rank for the game was (grain of salt on PFF). Compton might be back and in before we figure him out.

Rhodes needs to get healthy and step up his game.

Offense was pretty close all game even considering Diggs out. Cousins should have pulled down and run at least a couple times. If Robinson had caught the deep pass, that probably would have been game then. Cook needed to just catch the damn ball on that sweep.

Gonna be a long weekend and week till SNF.

_____________________________

Left picking up the pieces.
Post #: 8159
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/7/2018 8:13:27 PM   
hagar

 

Posts: 2631
Joined: 3/3/2014
From: fresburg, ca
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: thebigo

On Cooks long run, the Safety that finally tackled him with the desperation dive at his heels had about a 10 yard start on him, Cook was outrunning the Safety by about 1 yard every 5 yards.


Back in the long ago days, AD would have slowed a bit, thrown the Safety out of
bounds and continued on to the end zone. I do occasionally miss that. Hope Cook
stays healthy and we can see more explosive plays like that though.
Post #: 8160
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/7/2018 8:13:56 PM   
Murph


Posts: 1432
Joined: 4/20/2008
From: Southern Oregon
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: thebigo

On Cooks long run, the Safety that finally tackled him with the desperation dive at his heels had about a 10 yard start on him, Cook was outrunning the Safety by about 1 yard every 5 yards.


Looked to me like he was shot out of a cannon.

Murray and Cook are such a nice tandem. I also think our offense is going to continue to improve as the season wears on.

_____________________________

Purple Dynasty!
Post #: 8161
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/7/2018 9:09:36 PM   
David Levine


Posts: 64263
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Las Vegas
Status: online
Nick Olson@NicholasJOlson
Holton Hill just continues to impress. Last week he only gave up one catch for 11 yards, and it was in garbage time soft coverage.

He's not being asked to do as much as Rhodes, but he's excelling with what he is asked to do. Great patience in press, great reads in zone:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1060253882696261637
Post #: 8162
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/8/2018 1:03:07 AM   
ratoppenheimer


Posts: 6695
Joined: 12/9/2007
From: girona, catalonia...in exile
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: GopherFan34

quote:

ORIGINAL: ratoppenheimer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Plus you might be looking at our future LT (and 12M cap savings)

Reiff dead cap

2019... 6.6 ml
2020....4.4 ml
2021....2.2 ml

Reiff isn't going anywhere until maybe 2021. That is the last year of O'Neal's rookie deal



reiff is solid at lt...no reason to rush his departure...perhaps we can restructure him and save some short-term cap money....

at this time i really do not see us extending barr....

possible cap savings next season:

sendejo....$5.5m
griffen....$10.5m
waynes....$9m
rudolph....$7.6m
remmers....$4.5m



Do they cut or not resign
Sendejo, yes
Griffen,No
Waynes, No
Rudolph, maybe
Remmers, yes
I think they keep Waynes over Barr. Zimmer choice



waynes is only a one-year committment...barr would have to be a much bigger financial obligation....

remmers is tough - today, i don't think that we have a replacement ...1st/2nd round pick in 2019 - maybe....

rudolph - imo we should have drafted his replacement in the first couple of rounds 2018 - do we trust a rookie/2019 pick next season?...i don't think so....

griffen - although it won't be popular, i think there's a good chance we let griffen go - his deal is designed for a 2019 exit...perhaps we can rework his contract....

_____________________________

the journey...is paradise.
Post #: 8163
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/8/2018 1:13:40 AM   
marty


Posts: 9292
Joined: 12/28/2007
Status: online
I was going to recommend Abdullah, that is an awesome pickup.

After Cook gets hurt, you have thunder and lightening with Murray and Abdullah. Abdulla is a nice shifty, complementary back, sorta like Sproles.

Just off of pre-season, I thought Boone or Thomas were too similar, that they both might make good backs coming off the bench that could surprise with a homerun, but would probably get stopped for little gain on most of their regular season carries.

_____________________________

SKOL to the BOWL !!!
Post #: 8164
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/8/2018 1:50:09 AM   
Bruce Johnson

 

Posts: 12417
Joined: 8/27/2007
Status: online
I like watching these kind of video clips of rare NFL plays. I'll have to watch this one later when I can turn the sound volume up.

https://youtu.be/S9y6JFR6vnM

_____________________________

I do think it is wonderful that football can bring people together from different persuasions. We need more of that and less of what divides us.
Post #: 8165
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/8/2018 4:14:23 AM   
ratoppenheimer


Posts: 6695
Joined: 12/9/2007
From: girona, catalonia...in exile
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: ratoppenheimer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

I see Harris played 100% of the defensive snaps against Det

Kearse 23%
Iloka 0%

Extend Harris now



now would be a great time to offer harris a nice signing bonus that with salary equates to around $2.5m/yr over four years....


and I am sure his agent will urge him to reject that as he will likely make more on the free agent market.



i would question that...he's been working for minimum wage and i don't think that other dc's consider him a stand out....

_____________________________

the journey...is paradise.
Post #: 8166
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/8/2018 6:43:44 AM   
Bill Jandro

 

Posts: 13607
Joined: 8/13/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Plus you might be looking at our future LT (and 12M cap savings)

Reiff dead cap

2019... 6.6 ml
2020....4.4 ml
2021....2.2 ml

Reiff isn't going anywhere until maybe 2021. That is the last year of O'Neal's rookie deal



A trade is a possibility.

O'Neal certainly has the ceiling to eventually play LT.

However, if we were to trade Reiff, who would play RT? Hill no thanks.

I don't think we are in any position to trade a good Olineman.

Even if we draft another OT early, he most likely will need some seasoning.

I would prefer to leave our T tandom in place at least through the 19 season.

What we need to do is continue to pick G's and turn that position in to one of strength.

_____________________________

MLB---Choose well and Championships will follow
Post #: 8167
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/8/2018 7:36:37 AM   
SoMnFan


Posts: 83883
Status: offline

Vikings playoff push rests on Kirk Cousins and the defense

Courtney Cronin
ESPN Staff Writer

The Minnesota Vikings finished the first half of the season with a 5-3-1 record. Here's a look at how they have fared and what's ahead:

First-half rewind: Quarterback Kirk Cousins and his skill players have been quick to point out that stats, no matter how good they look on paper, don't tell the whole story. Minnesota ranked in the top 10 in both total offense and defense during the first half of the season but experienced ups and downs along the way. It took the Vikings' defense the first four weeks to work out the areas where it struggled (allowing explosive gains, biting on misdirection plays, struggling to establish a pass rush) before reclaiming its identity. Offensively, the line has been a constant work in progress and hindered production on the ground until Latavius Murray broke through in Week 5 with the team's first rushing TD of the season. Those issues have forced the Vikings to rely on their passing attack, which is one of the best in the league. It's no coincidence that Cousins and Adam Thielen are on pace for record-setting seasons based on how aggressive the Vikings have been through the air, which is something expected to remain a constant throughout the second half. Grade: Above average

What's the biggest factor in the Vikings making a deep playoff run? Minnesota's defense needs to continue playing at this level where by remaining dominant on third down, pulling out big stops in the red zone and scoring off turnovers. The Vikings also need Cousins, who has performed well on the road and under pressure, especially in prime-time games at the Bears, home against the Packers and at New England. He has proven to be the upgrade Minnesota needed at quarterback in a handful of areas, but eliminating costly fumbles could be the measure between making a deep playoff run and an early exit. The Vikings also don't need to force the run game, though they're hoping Dalvin Cook (hamstring) will be able to add an element they've been missing with his explosive ability. Until then, Cousins continues to make the most of one of the best receiving duos in the NFL.

Vikings revised game-by-game prediction

Here's how Minnesota Vikings reporter Courtney Cronin sees the season playing out.


Date

Opp.

W-L


Nov. 18 at Bears L
Nov. 25 vs. Packers W
Dec. 2 at Patriots L
Dec. 10 at Seahawks L
Dec. 16 vs. Dolphins W
Dec. 23 at Lions W
Dec. 30 vs. Bears W

Cronin's original game-by-game prediction

MVP: Thielen. The Pro Bowl receiver is setting team and league records every week and has been the most consistent part of the Vikings' attack with a record eight consecutive 100-yard receiving games to start the season. Leading the league in receiving and on pace to break the single-season record for receptions, Thielen is a major part of what Minnesota does offensively, and offensive coordinator John DeFilippo keeps finding new, creative ways to get the ball to him. Thielen's ability in the slot has dismantled defenses all season. When Thielen has the chance to show what he can do with his footwork and route running when facing man coverage, it's usually game over for his opponent.

Biggest surprise: The Vikings have a talented roster but haven't consistently performed like a team destined to win a title. They've won important road games but also lost head scratchers such as at home to Buffalo. They played the Rams and Saints -- two of the NFC's best -- close, but not close enough. One week the offense is firing on all cylinders while the defense stumbles, and the other week it's the opposite. Minnesota's brutally hard stretch continues in the second half, opening things up at Soldier Field, a place they haven't consistently performed well in years past.

Hurdle to overcome: Minnesota's offensive line has struggled to overcome injuries and its lack of depth, and that's probably going to remain a consistent theme. Cousins' ability to maneuver at times and get rid of the ball quickly has helped the Vikings rise above tough situations, but he also has struggled with pocket awareness and trying to save himself from incurring negative plays. Many will place the blame on Cousins in those instances, and some of that is a fair assessment, but overcoming issues with the offensive line is an ongoing process.
Post #: 8168
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/8/2018 7:56:19 AM   
Bill Jandro

 

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If the season ended today we would be the 6 seed in the playoffs.

_____________________________

MLB---Choose well and Championships will follow
Post #: 8169
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/8/2018 8:38:28 AM   
The Happy Norseman

 

Posts: 349
Joined: 12/2/2016
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SoMnFan


Vikings playoff push rests on Kirk Cousins and the defense

Courtney Cronin
ESPN Staff Writer

The Minnesota Vikings finished the first half of the season with a 5-3-1 record. Here's a look at how they have fared and what's ahead:

First-half rewind: Quarterback Kirk Cousins and his skill players have been quick to point out that stats, no matter how good they look on paper, don't tell the whole story. Minnesota ranked in the top 10 in both total offense and defense during the first half of the season but experienced ups and downs along the way. It took the Vikings' defense the first four weeks to work out the areas where it struggled (allowing explosive gains, biting on misdirection plays, struggling to establish a pass rush) before reclaiming its identity. Offensively, the line has been a constant work in progress and hindered production on the ground until Latavius Murray broke through in Week 5 with the team's first rushing TD of the season. Those issues have forced the Vikings to rely on their passing attack, which is one of the best in the league. It's no coincidence that Cousins and Adam Thielen are on pace for record-setting seasons based on how aggressive the Vikings have been through the air, which is something expected to remain a constant throughout the second half. Grade: Above average

What's the biggest factor in the Vikings making a deep playoff run? Minnesota's defense needs to continue playing at this level where by remaining dominant on third down, pulling out big stops in the red zone and scoring off turnovers. The Vikings also need Cousins, who has performed well on the road and under pressure, especially in prime-time games at the Bears, home against the Packers and at New England. He has proven to be the upgrade Minnesota needed at quarterback in a handful of areas, but eliminating costly fumbles could be the measure between making a deep playoff run and an early exit. The Vikings also don't need to force the run game, though they're hoping Dalvin Cook (hamstring) will be able to add an element they've been missing with his explosive ability. Until then, Cousins continues to make the most of one of the best receiving duos in the NFL.

Vikings revised game-by-game prediction

Here's how Minnesota Vikings reporter Courtney Cronin sees the season playing out.


Date

Opp.

W-L


Nov. 18 at Bears L
Nov. 25 vs. Packers W
Dec. 2 at Patriots L
Dec. 10 at Seahawks L
Dec. 16 vs. Dolphins W
Dec. 23 at Lions W
Dec. 30 vs. Bears W


Cronin's original game-by-game prediction

MVP: Thielen. The Pro Bowl receiver is setting team and league records every week and has been the most consistent part of the Vikings' attack with a record eight consecutive 100-yard receiving games to start the season. Leading the league in receiving and on pace to break the single-season record for receptions, Thielen is a major part of what Minnesota does offensively, and offensive coordinator John DeFilippo keeps finding new, creative ways to get the ball to him. Thielen's ability in the slot has dismantled defenses all season. When Thielen has the chance to show what he can do with his footwork and route running when facing man coverage, it's usually game over for his opponent.

Biggest surprise: The Vikings have a talented roster but haven't consistently performed like a team destined to win a title. They've won important road games but also lost head scratchers such as at home to Buffalo. They played the Rams and Saints -- two of the NFC's best -- close, but not close enough. One week the offense is firing on all cylinders while the defense stumbles, and the other week it's the opposite. Minnesota's brutally hard stretch continues in the second half, opening things up at Soldier Field, a place they haven't consistently performed well in years past.

Hurdle to overcome: Minnesota's offensive line has struggled to overcome injuries and its lack of depth, and that's probably going to remain a consistent theme. Cousins' ability to maneuver at times and get rid of the ball quickly has helped the Vikings rise above tough situations, but he also has struggled with pocket awareness and trying to save himself from incurring negative plays. Many will place the blame on Cousins in those instances, and some of that is a fair assessment, but overcoming issues with the offensive line is an ongoing process.



That W/L total sounds about right. I see us stealing one in Seattle or NE, but I think she's right about the rest. Final record: 10-5-1 - NFC North Champs.

_____________________________

If the Cubs can win the World Series...
Post #: 8170
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/8/2018 8:53:15 AM   
Tom Sykes


Posts: 2089
Joined: 7/27/2007
From: Tucson, AZ
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

Plus you might be looking at our future LT (and 12M cap savings)

Reiff dead cap

2019... 6.6 ml
2020....4.4 ml
2021....2.2 ml

Reiff isn't going anywhere until maybe 2021. That is the last year of O'Neal's rookie deal



A trade is a possibility.

O'Neal certainly has the ceiling to eventually play LT.

However, if we were to trade Reiff, who would play RT? Hill no thanks.

I don't think we are in any position to trade a good Olineman.

Even if we draft another OT early, he most likely will need some seasoning.

I would prefer to leave our T tandom in place at least through the 19 season.

What we need to do is continue to pick G's and turn that position in to one of strength.

Good post. We will see how the season plays out but if O’Neal holds up and ends up being ‘all that’, Reiff showed willingness and played a little better moving to RT for Detroit ... we could do that. O’Neill has a ways to go to yet to show a solid consistent body of work.

Obviously Remmers needs to play well in more than just one game.

Still ... ‘only’ needing a premium Guard and upgraded depth next offseason would be a huge leap from where we were 2 offseasons ago. Huge.
Post #: 8171
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/8/2018 9:10:46 AM   
SoMnFan


Posts: 83883
Status: offline
ESPNs Barnwell

5. Danielle Hunter is great but probably not this great.

With Everson Griffen missing most of the first half and Brian Robison released, the Vikings have essentially relied on the 24-year-old Hunter to serve as their pass rush. The results have been spectacular. He leads the league with 11.5 sacks in nine games, and the former third-round pick is on pace to top 20 sacks this season. No other Minnesota player has racked up more than three sacks.

Hunter has managed to do this while knocking down the quarterback only 15 times. History tells us that pass-rushers typically rack up sacks about 45 percent of the time they take down the quarterback, and players who veer dramatically from that sack percentage tend to regress toward it over a longer period of time. Before 2018, Hunter had racked up 25.5 sacks on 39 knockdowns, which is more than you would expect given the 45 percent measure, but not quite this extreme of a total. By the 45 percent mark, we would estimate that Hunter should have just under seven sacks so far, not 11.5.

The good news for the Vikings is that the rest of the pass rush should help to counteract a potential Hunter drop-off. The trio of Griffen, Sheldon Richardson and Stephen Weatherly have combined for only seven sacks on 28 knockdowns when that number would typically create something closer to 12.6 sacks. One of the more obvious outliers in this same category would also benefit Minnesota, as Bears pass-rusher Khalil Mack has five sacks on only four knockdowns this season. Given that Mack racked up 22 knockdowns last season, though, it seems likely he'll up his underlying hit rate once he returns from an ankle injury

7. The NFC North is up for grabs.

FPI feels quite confident that the Lions, who have a 1.7 percent shot of winning the division, are out of the NFC North race. Otherwise, it's open. The 5-3 Bears are unsurprisingly the FPI leaders, with a 46.1 percent shot, but the Vikings are right behind them at 37.0 percent, with the Packers lurking at 15.3 percent. There's close to a 50 percent chance of this division sending two teams to the postseason, but the division title is still too close to call.

As someone who thought the Bears were among the most likely teams in football to improve even before the Khalil Mack trade, I'm not surprised to see Chicago taking a leap to the top of the division. The Bears have been better in close games. Their interception rate, the fourth lowest in the league a year ago, has spiked to the league's second-best rate so far this season. Their offense has been healthier and flashed stretches of impressive play. The Bears are for real.

The problem is that they're about to face a lot more real teams, too. The Bears faced FPI's easiest schedule over the first nine weeks. From here, they'll face the 11th-toughest slate of opponents. Chicago gets a home-and-home with the Vikings, a rematch against the Packers, and a home game against the Rams. Their road schedule is otherwise pretty modest -- trips to play the Lions, Giants and 49ers -- but the Bears already have lost to the Packers and Dolphins on the road, and needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Cardinals in Arizona. Taking those three winnable road games and going .500 at home should be enough to push the Bears into the postseason.

The Vikings, who were on the list of six teams most likely to decline, already can't match their 13-3 mark from a year ago. What's far worse is that they also have to worry about their schedule getting tougher; FPI says that they're about to jump from the third-easiest schedule to the league's sixth-toughest slate. Four of Minnesota's final seven games are on the road, and that schedule includes a brutal four-game stretch after the bye: The Vikings travel to play the Bears, face the Packers at home, head to Foxborough to play the Patriots, and finish up with a Monday night game in Seattle.

The Packers seem out of it at 3-4-1, and even that seems like a stretch. Their three wins include a 22-0 home victory over the Bills and a pair of frantic fourth-quarter home comebacks with no margin for error over the Bears and 49ers. As you can probably infer, the Packers are 0-4 on their travels away from Lambeau Field, losing those games by an average of 9.5 points.

The good news is that their schedule is actually about to get easier. Green Bay's scheduled ranked 18th in the league so far, but those road games were brutal. Those four losses came against three-first place teams (the Rams, Patriots and Washington) and a fourth against the Lions in the game in which Mason Crosby was replaced by a fan and missed five kicks. The Packers lost all three of their fumbles in that game. Fate wanted the Packers to lose.

From Week 10 on, the Packers have the league's fifth-easiest schedule. Their road schedule actually doesn't get much easier outside of a trip to play the Jets, given that they still have to travel to play the Bears, Seahawks and Vikings, but their home slate is extremely friendly: They'll face the Dolphins, Cardinals, Falcons and Lions in the Crosby Revenge Game come Week 17. If the Packers do make a run into the postseason, it'll probably come from a clean sweep of those home games.


< Message edited by SoMnFan -- 11/8/2018 9:13:51 AM >
Post #: 8172
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/8/2018 9:13:42 AM   
ronhextall


Posts: 4264
Joined: 7/19/2007
Status: offline
Nov. 18 at Bears L
Nov. 25 vs. Packers W
Dec. 2 at Patriots L
Dec. 10 at Seahawks L
Dec. 16 vs. Dolphins W
Dec. 23 at Lions W
Dec. 30 vs. Bears W

That seems likely, also for me a disappointment. The Vikings would have basically failed in every attempt to beat a truly quality team. I had bigger hopes, especially since Cousin's can be so good.

Any guess who they would play at home on Wild Card weekend? Carolina or possibly even the Bears would be good possibilities.
Post #: 8173
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/8/2018 9:14:34 AM   
Trekgeekscott


Posts: 35181
Joined: 7/16/2007
From: United Federation of Planets
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SoMnFan

ESPNs Barnwell

5. Danielle Hunter is great but probably not this great.

With Everson Griffen missing most of the first half and Brian Robison released, the Vikings have essentially relied on the 24-year-old Hunter to serve as their pass rush. The results have been spectacular. He leads the league with 11.5 sacks in nine games, and the former third-round pick is on pace to top 20 sacks this season. No other Minnesota player has racked up more than three sacks.

Hunter has managed to do this while knocking down the quarterback only 15 times. History tells us that pass-rushers typically rack up sacks about 45 percent of the time they take down the quarterback, and players who veer dramatically from that sack percentage tend to regress toward it over a longer period of time. Before 2018, Hunter had racked up 25.5 sacks on 39 knockdowns, which is more than you would expect given the 45 percent measure, but not quite this extreme of a total. By the 45 percent mark, we would estimate that Hunter should have just under seven sacks so far, not 11.5.

The good news for the Vikings is that the rest of the pass rush should help to counteract a potential Hunter drop-off. The trio of Griffen, Sheldon Richardson and Stephen Weatherly have combined for only seven sacks on 28 knockdowns when that number would typically create something closer to 12.6 sacks. One of the more obvious outliers in this same category would also benefit Minnesota, as Bears pass-rusher Khalil Mack has five sacks on only four knockdowns this season. Given that Mack racked up 22 knockdowns last season, though, it seems likely he'll up his underlying hit rate once he returns from an ankle injury




WHAT A DOUCHE.

OK. Maybe Hunter is just better and getting home and completing sacks that the average guy?

Overreliance on Nerdylitic Stats is hampering this dumbshit's view.

_____________________________

All of us are entitled to our own opinion. None of us are entitled to our own facts. - Alan Page
Post #: 8174
RE: General Vikes Talk - 11/8/2018 10:06:14 AM   
jbusse

 

Posts: 442
Joined: 9/11/2013
From: Atlanta, GA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: SoMnFan

ESPNs Barnwell

5. Danielle Hunter is great but probably not this great.

With Everson Griffen missing most of the first half and Brian Robison released, the Vikings have essentially relied on the 24-year-old Hunter to serve as their pass rush. The results have been spectacular. He leads the league with 11.5 sacks in nine games, and the former third-round pick is on pace to top 20 sacks this season. No other Minnesota player has racked up more than three sacks.

Hunter has managed to do this while knocking down the quarterback only 15 times. History tells us that pass-rushers typically rack up sacks about 45 percent of the time they take down the quarterback, and players who veer dramatically from that sack percentage tend to regress toward it over a longer period of time. Before 2018, Hunter had racked up 25.5 sacks on 39 knockdowns, which is more than you would expect given the 45 percent measure, but not quite this extreme of a total. By the 45 percent mark, we would estimate that Hunter should have just under seven sacks so far, not 11.5.

The good news for the Vikings is that the rest of the pass rush should help to counteract a potential Hunter drop-off. The trio of Griffen, Sheldon Richardson and Stephen Weatherly have combined for only seven sacks on 28 knockdowns when that number would typically create something closer to 12.6 sacks. One of the more obvious outliers in this same category would also benefit Minnesota, as Bears pass-rusher Khalil Mack has five sacks on only four knockdowns this season. Given that Mack racked up 22 knockdowns last season, though, it seems likely he'll up his underlying hit rate once he returns from an ankle injury




WHAT A DOUCHE.

OK. Maybe Hunter is just better and getting home and completing sacks that the average guy?

Overreliance on Nerdylitic Stats is hampering this dumbshit's view.

Hunter has a bit more closing speed than Stalin Colinet.
Post #: 8175
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