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RE: Other Games 2018-19

 
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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 1:02:02 PM   
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ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pager

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ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

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ORIGINAL: David F.

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ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

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ORIGINAL: SoMnFan

Love seeing young coaches do things out of the norm
The Rams are this year's Eagles
Going for it, to run the clock out. How innovative. Players love that.
The game itself needs a lot more of this thinking.
I could imagine old-timers all over the country having heart attacks during that final sequence. Loved it. Hoping for more of it.



It was a smart and cool decision because it worked. If it failed it very well could have cost the Rams the game. and everybody would be wondering wtf McVay was thinking.

There is a very fine line between courage and insanity.


But if they punt and the other team scores and wins that's just fine because it's conventional?


If they punt they make the other team drive a lot farther, use timeouts if they have any left, and get into postion to win. If they go for it and fail the other team is nearly in FG range already. I take my chances that my defense can keep them out of FG range from a longer distance. Probability is higher that way.

It was a gutsy move by McVay, I'm not against it. but I wouldn't make it a habit as it will lead to more losses in the long run. If it becomes the norm Defenses will be prepared for it.



FWIW. Peter King has added a section on analytics.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/10/15/patriots-chiefs-tom-brady-nfl-fmia-week-6-peter-king/

• Week 5, Seahawks at Rams, Los Angeles ball, fourth-and-one (actually fourth-and-a-foot, but PFF doesn’t account for feet or inches—only yards) at their own 42, fourth quarter, 1:39 left, Rams up 33-31. Conversion percentage: 78.2 percent. Chance of winning if they convert: 99.9 percent. (They’d simply run out the clock.) Here’s the key, and it’s why—even though I wrote last week about what a smart call it was by Sean McVay—that it actually was overwhelmingly the smart call by McVay to go for it even if the play failed: The Rams’ chance to win the game was still 59.7 percent if they didn’t convert and handed the ball back to Seattle with no timeouts left and a questionable kicker in Janikowski (who’d made six of nine this year at that point). In other words, PFF still believed it was more likely than not that handing the ball back to Russell Wilson on a short field would have resulted in a Rams win.


The win percentage probability drops over 40% if the play fails...

And what the analytics are saying is that McVay may appear gutsy when in reality it took no guts at all to call that play....None. It would have, per analytics, been more gutsy to punt.

And this is why analytics has no place here.

Just like in baseball.



And was still 60%.

Eagles are big believers in analytics and attribute use to their success (quite a few articles out there). I'm jealous of their SB win.

But to each their own.

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 7:26:14 PM   
David Levine


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49ers carved up the Pack on their opening drive. They never even had a 3rd down:

7 yard run
17 yard pass
9 yard run
9 yard pass
8 yard run
22 yard pass
3 yard TD run
Post #: 127
RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 7:26:54 PM   
David Levine


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Packers answer even faster...

60 yard pass
17 yard TD pass
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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 8:17:39 PM   
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dumb prevent defense on that 3rd down (and 18 i think). Now they're going for it on 4th (and 4).

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 8:19:05 PM   
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and not surprising pick it up

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 8:28:58 PM   
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GB defense is overrated. Goodwin is a monster.

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 8:40:24 PM   
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2 min warning. SF up by 1 and driving.

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 8:48:02 PM   
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nice clock management by SF. sack with about 50 seconds and let it run down and call TO. GB had 1 TO, dkw they didn't use it

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 9:19:12 PM   
David F.


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Hahaha Clay Mathews whiffed so bad on Garcon allows an extra 15 yards. Wasn't even close.

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 9:51:39 PM   
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4th down stop. faceguarding the wr in the endzone. almost identical to the call on mac. no penalty (even more surprising cuz packers)

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 10:01:19 PM   
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god anyone that says packers don't hold on every play just doesn't know football.

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 10:13:28 PM   
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blitz don't get home = too easy

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 10:15:27 PM   
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32 yards plys 15 for late hit close to mid field!!!

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 10:16:12 PM   
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3 straight 3 and outs for the 49ers...

(INT may as well have been a punt)
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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 10:18:40 PM   
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i don't think that was an INT

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 10:19:37 PM   
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holding on every play smh

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 10:20:19 PM   
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delay of game nh rodgers

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 10:20:48 PM   
David Levine


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ORIGINAL: Pager

i don't think that was an INT


Probably better that it was. Unlikely a punt would've yielded better field position.
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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 10:21:13 PM   
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3-15 from own 30. 45 sec or so

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 10:21:42 PM   
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49ers with an iffy penalty to keep GB in it.
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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 10:23:12 PM   
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bullshit call on CB richards. calling that to decide the game? wtf

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 10:24:59 PM   
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That was a stupid decision to take a shot with 6 seconds left.
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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 10:25:48 PM   
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49ers played the last 3 minutes with both hands around their throats.
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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 10:26:37 PM   
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what a f****** gift

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RE: Other Games 2018-19 - 10/15/2018 10:27:50 PM   
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ORIGINAL: David Levine

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ORIGINAL: Pager

i don't think that was an INT


Probably better that it was. Unlikely a punt would've yielded better field position.



it would have taken more time off (not much maybe 10 seconds)

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