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RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft

 
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RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/28/2021 1:18:04 PM   
TJSweens


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According to Russo, the Wild have dropped out of the Eichel sweepstakes. Buffalo's asking price is apparently quite ridiculous and Guerin is moving on.

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RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/28/2021 1:46:30 PM   
TJSweens


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Goligoski signs a 1 year $5 million contract with the Wild.

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RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/28/2021 2:40:23 PM   
Jeff Jesser


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That's a bit high for a 1 year rental. I would feel a lot better for a 2 year 6 total but overall it's a good signing.
Post #: 228
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/28/2021 3:03:00 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

Goligoski signs a 1 year $5 million contract with the Wild.

He better be very good.

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So let it be done."
Post #: 229
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/28/2021 3:15:01 PM   
David Levine


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quote:

Michael Russo@RussoHockey
One perspective that folks seemed to have glossed over in my Goligoski article this morning. I think there’s a “promise” that if things work out that Goligoski would extend deal after Jan. 1 in the $2M range. But because of next year’s cap squeeze, a 2-year AAV wasn’t doable here


If Russo is right, it would essentially be a 2 year deal with an AAV of 3.5M, but formatted this way, 5M of the 7M counts this year when we have plenty of cap space.
Post #: 230
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/28/2021 3:18:04 PM   
TJSweens


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jeff Jesser

That's a bit high for a 1 year rental. I would feel a lot better for a 2 year 6 total but overall it's a good signing.

The problem is that they needed him accept a 1 year deal. The mythical salary cap relief from the Parise / Suter buyouts only lasts 1 year. Next year the cap hit from those contracts will be back to 90% of what it was. Then the two years after that, the hit will be almost the same as if they were still on the roster. There is probably no room for a $3M hit in a second year.

Let's be clear. Those buyouts had nothing to do with freeing up cap space. Those buyouts were because Guerin wanted Suter and Parise out of here in the worst possible way.

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RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/28/2021 4:10:53 PM   
Jeff Jesser


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Yeah, that makes much more sense. Very happy with that.
Post #: 232
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/28/2021 4:20:07 PM   
TJSweens


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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

Michael Russo@RussoHockey
One perspective that folks seemed to have glossed over in my Goligoski article this morning. I think there’s a “promise” that if things work out that Goligoski would extend deal after Jan. 1 in the $2M range. But because of next year’s cap squeeze, a 2-year AAV wasn’t doable here


If Russo is right, it would essentially be a 2 year deal with an AAV of 3.5M, but formatted this way, 5M of the 7M counts this year when we have plenty of cap space.

As long as Guerin didn't put the "promise" in writing that should be fine.

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Post #: 233
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/28/2021 10:05:16 PM   
TJSweens


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SomeMoFo pointed out to me that Colorado has both Keumper and Dubnyk. Because the key to winning in the playoffs is goalies who use to play for the Wild.

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Post #: 234
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/29/2021 11:32:15 AM   
stfrank

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

SomeMoFo pointed out to me that Colorado has both Keumper and Dubnyk. Because the key to winning in the playoffs is goalies who use to play for the Wild.

He must be one SmartMoFo!
Post #: 235
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/29/2021 11:47:22 AM   
bstinger


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Any thoughts on the other signings?

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RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/29/2021 12:04:05 PM   
TJSweens


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

Any thoughts on the other signings?

If you are talking about the SmartMoFo's take, he is a Goligoski fan like most of us.

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RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/29/2021 12:07:51 PM   
Lynn G.


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Thanks for bringing the SmartMoFo's thoughts in here, Sweens. Valuable stuff for those of us who love hockey.

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Post #: 238
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/29/2021 12:46:25 PM   
bstinger


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

Any thoughts on the other signings?

If you are talking about the SmartMoFo's take, he is a Goligoski fan like most of us.

I figured he was. But we signed a few other lessor known people to contracts as well.

Any thoughts from him or any of the other MoFo's on the board?

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Post #: 239
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/29/2021 1:03:24 PM   
TJSweens


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

Any thoughts on the other signings?

If you are talking about the SmartMoFo's take, he is a Goligoski fan like most of us.

I figured he was. But we signed a few other lessor known people to contracts as well.

Any thoughts from him or any of the other MoFo's on the board?

I don't really know what to make of Frederick Gaudreau & Dmitry Kulikov.

Evason has history coaching Gaudreau in the minors and that had some impact on the decision. Looks like a checking line center, who is apparently pretty good at faceoffs, which Lord knows the Wild aren't.

Kulikov has been in the league for awhile. He looks like a big solid defensive defenseman, which they need. He replaces Cole, who got a bigger offer than the Wild could match, given their cap situation and need to sign Kaprizov and Fiala.

They signed three other guys to two way deals, who are for organization depth. I doubt we will see any of them.

< Message edited by TJSweens -- 7/29/2021 1:04:24 PM >


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Post #: 240
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/29/2021 1:16:50 PM   
bstinger


Posts: 15570
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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

Any thoughts on the other signings?

If you are talking about the SmartMoFo's take, he is a Goligoski fan like most of us.

I figured he was. But we signed a few other lessor known people to contracts as well.

Any thoughts from him or any of the other MoFo's on the board?

I don't really know what to make of Frederick Gaudreau & Dmitry Kulikov.

Evason has history coaching Gaudreau in the minors and that had some impact on the decision. Looks like a checking line center, who is apparently pretty good at faceoffs, which Lord knows the Wild aren't.

Kulikov has been in the league for awhile. He looks like a big solid defensive defenseman, which they need. He replaces Cole, who got a bigger offer than the Wild could match, given their cap situation and need to sign Kaprizov and Fiala.

They signed three other guys to two way deals, who are for organization depth. I doubt we will see any of them.

Thanks for the info, but I said MoFo's not Bastards!

_____________________________

"You guys are true athletes!"

--twinsfan
Post #: 241
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/29/2021 1:40:14 PM   
TJSweens


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

Any thoughts on the other signings?

If you are talking about the SmartMoFo's take, he is a Goligoski fan like most of us.

I figured he was. But we signed a few other lessor known people to contracts as well.

Any thoughts from him or any of the other MoFo's on the board?

I don't really know what to make of Frederick Gaudreau & Dmitry Kulikov.

Evason has history coaching Gaudreau in the minors and that had some impact on the decision. Looks like a checking line center, who is apparently pretty good at faceoffs, which Lord knows the Wild aren't.

Kulikov has been in the league for awhile. He looks like a big solid defensive defenseman, which they need. He replaces Cole, who got a bigger offer than the Wild could match, given their cap situation and need to sign Kaprizov and Fiala.

They signed three other guys to two way deals, who are for organization depth. I doubt we will see any of them.

Thanks for the info, but I said MoFo's not Bastards!

I've been called both.

_____________________________

"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
Post #: 242
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/29/2021 2:09:35 PM   
stfrank

 

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Joined: 7/22/2007
From: Twin Cities
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

Any thoughts on the other signings?

If you are talking about the SmartMoFo's take, he is a Goligoski fan like most of us.

I figured he was. But we signed a few other lessor known people to contracts as well.

Any thoughts from him or any of the other MoFo's on the board?

I don't really know what to make of Frederick Gaudreau & Dmitry Kulikov.

Evason has history coaching Gaudreau in the minors and that had some impact on the decision. Looks like a checking line center, who is apparently pretty good at faceoffs, which Lord knows the Wild aren't.

Kulikov has been in the league for awhile. He looks like a big solid defensive defenseman, which they need. He replaces Cole, who got a bigger offer than the Wild could match, given their cap situation and need to sign Kaprizov and Fiala.

They signed three other guys to two way deals, who are for organization depth. I doubt we will see any of them.

Thanks for the info, but I said MoFo's not Bastards!

I've been called both.

MoFo Bastard!
Post #: 243
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/29/2021 2:10:42 PM   
TJSweens


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Been called that too.

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"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
Post #: 244
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/29/2021 3:29:22 PM   
TJSweens


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Here is from some MoFo at hockey wilderness

What kind of player is Frederick Gaudreau?

A deep dive into the game of Minnesota’s new center


By Justin Hein

On the first day of free agency, the Minnesota Wild were relatively quiet. Rumored to be pursuing some veteran big fish in Nick Foligno, the Wild struck out, leaving limited options by the end of the day. In spite of this, they were able to fill out many open slots in the bottom half of the roster and, to the elation of fans throughout the State of Hockey, sign a center ice man.

That man is Frederick Gaudreau, a 28-year-old winding down his prime having played 103 NHL games after breaking into the league at the age of 23 for the Nashville Predators four seasons ago. In that time, he’s scored 5 goals and 18 points, avoided the penalty box, and posted a +/- of plus-12, positive in every season that he’s played. He’s also been a 49.7 percent faceoff man having taken 636 career faceoffs.

Last season, Gaudreau played 33 minutes on the penalty kill for the Pittsburgh Penguins through his 19 games played, meaning he was a significant contributor every night he was in the lineup.

Gaudreau’s contract for next year is a two-year deal with an AAV of $1.2 million — that’s pretty cheap for a center, even if he will probably play at the bottom of the lineup. Compare that to other NHL teams, usually they play an older star there to play out the end of a big contract, meaning negative value, or place a young unknown there to develop through the lineup. Gaudreau is cheaper than most predictable options, and provides relatively better predictability than your average rookie having played 100 NHL games.

Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic agrees with this analysis based on his statistical model — which utilizes advanced analytics, aging curves, and the career production of comparable skaters to estimate the remainder of a player’s impact. According to Dom’s model, Gaudreau is more likely to provide positive value both on the ice and above the value of his contract over the next two years.

This is important because after the Suter and Parise signings, GM Bill Guerin made two things clear: the Wild want to compete now, and they are going to have to do so with efficient cap management. A cheap player delivering positive value above his contract does both of those things.

In terms of slotting Gaudreau into the lineup, it’s tough to say exactly where he’ll play, but easy to make a close enough guess. With Nick Bonino now signed by the San Jose Sharks, the bottom six forward group needs a center. It’s tough to say whether he’ll play on a line ahead of or behind Nico Sturm, but it’s fairly likely that both will anchor the depth forward groups. Gaudreau and Sturm are both excellent fits for this role, as they create generally positive on-ice impacts in spite of bringing very few stand-out playstyle characteristics.

Freddy G’s career shooting percentage is a soft 5.9 percent, but that can say more about his chances than his ability. Is his shot really that bad? One way we can test this is by measuring it against all of the scoring chances which have been taken off the stick of Freddy G. Expected goals models factor in several variables to estimate the chance of a shot becoming a goal — these include the distance from the net, the angle of the shot, and the time since the last event (a save, a pass, a turnover, etc. — essentially the amount of chaos in the play). According to MoneyPuck.com’s xG model, Gaudreau is shooting 4.0 percent on an expected scoring rate of 7.3% (based on the location from which he’s shooting). Evolving-Hockey’s model has him shooting below expectation both of the past two seasons as well. So the short answer is, “Yes, his shot really is that bad.”

On the other hand, his defensive game is solid and his ability to drive play is elite. Over his NHL career, he’s been in the 65th percentile in Evolving-Hockey’s GAR metric (Goals Above Replacement), which is intended to measure a player’s overall value based off of on-ice results.

The main components of Gaudreau’s game throughout his career that drive this have been his defensive game (3.6 GAR), his total offensive game (2.5 GAR), and his ability to avoid taking penalties and drawing them(1.5 GAR). By xGAR, which is more stable over time, Gaudreau performs essentially identically over his career, and ranks in the 63rd percentile of all NHL skaters.

These numbers are in spite of playing only 100 games over four seasons, and only playing 9.7 minutes per night. These numbers should continue through this season as he’ll play in the bottom half of the roster, but the important thing is that they’re positive. Signing a player for the bottom half of your lineup that is better than average seems like it would be hard to be a deal that you lose.

Finally, looking at Gaudreau’s Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) can give an idea of Gaudreau's isolated impact - what this means is that it provides a solid estimate of what a player creates on the ice, independent of both his teammates, team play-style/system, and opponents. Gaudreau has been a positive impact across the board, especially in his play-driving statistics — xGF/60 and CF/60 measure Gaudreau’s offensive impacts in generating scoring chance quality and shot attempt, respectively. The opposites of these are xGA/60 and CA/60 — defensive impacts.

The RAPM chart below shows that Gaudreau has consistently been one standard deviation above the average forward in creating offense and preventing his opponents from doing the same. This essentially means that he belongs in the 84th percentile by these impacts - in the top three players on an average NHL team — but he’s dragged down because his chances haven’t converted at the usual rate.

This is likely due to his ability to finish, which has to do with opening shooting lanes and the quality of a player’s shot. It can also speak to passing ability — essentially, Gaudreau is smarter than he is skilled. That typically is all you need from your bottom two centers. What’s exciting about this is that if you get in a pinch and need to put him next to Fiala or Kaprizov in the event of an injury, Gaudreau is still capable of getting those players the puck, both with volume and in dangerous areas. Overall, there’s a lot to be excited about with this signing.


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"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
Post #: 245
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/29/2021 3:39:53 PM   
TJSweens


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Another MoFo at hockey wilderness contributed this:

Wild sign big, bruising blueliner Dmitry Kulikov

Minnesota has their depth left-handed defenseman that they were after.


By Thomas P. Williams

Just hours after Minnesota Wild GM Bill Guerin told the media that they are still looking to sign a pair of depth defensemen and at least one more forward in free agency, he did exactly that.

The Wild have signed left-handed defenseman Dmitry Kulikov to a two-year contract that carries a $2.25-million AAV.

Kulikov, 30, has spent his last few seasons in the trash franchises known as the Winnipeg Jets, New Jersey Devils, and Edmonton Oilers. You couldn’t pool together a group of more unfortunate hockey clubs for a defenseman, but still, he was able to be a solid shutdown option for those teams.

Kulikov won’t score many points — he barely scrapes over double digits every season — but that’s not really his role, ever. Pretty much guaranteed to get the left spot on the bottom pairing, the veteran defender can replace the physicality and defense that the Wild lost when Ian Cole walked to the Carolina Hurricanes for a one-year deal.

Not necessarily the most mobile blueliner, they might lose that edge that they had a little bit with Cole. But still, considering who is out there and the contract term and dollars, it’s a very adequate bet to make for Guerin.

With this contract on the books, the Wild have just over $20.5 million left in cap space, with at least two more defensemen and two more forwards, as well as Kirill Kaprizov and Kevin Fiala signed to new contracts. It’s a tight squeeze that might mean some future headaches for Guerin trying to sort out the final roster, but it’s doable.

A solid bet that might seamlessly fit in with the Wild’s system is just a no-brainer.


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"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
Post #: 246
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 7/29/2021 4:45:20 PM   
TJSweens


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The Wild also signed Jonathon Merrill another defensive defenseman with some size at 6'3" / 195lbs. He is 28 and played with Detroit and Montreal last year and LV the three years before that.

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Post #: 247
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 8/2/2021 10:37:36 AM   
TJSweens


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I'm getting a little sick of Suter whining about how the Wild blind sided him. I wish someone would blind side me with $98M and then work it so I could go out and get another $14.6M ahead of schedule. In fact that is money Suter never would have been paid as I am sure he would have hung up his skates when his Wild contract expired at age 40.

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"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
Post #: 248
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 8/10/2021 9:34:32 AM   
TJSweens


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The pressure increases. Kaprizov apparently has a tentative KHL deal that will go into effect if he and the Wild don't reach an agreement by September.

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Post #: 249
RE: Wild 2021 Post Mortem Offseason and Draft - 8/10/2021 9:46:48 AM   
stfrank

 

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By Michael Russo Aug 9, 2021 567
The ugly Kirill Kaprizov contract negotiations took another turn Monday night when the Daily Faceoff reported that the Minnesota Wild’s unsigned restricted free agent has a tentative agreement in place with CSKA Moscow on a one-year deal worth at least $10 million to begin Sept. 1 should a new contract not materialize with the Wild.

The Athletic has reported since mid-June that Kaprizov’s former KHL team would welcome him back with open arms if he can’t reach a deal with Minnesota, but the report tosses a date and an “8-figure” price tag on something Kaprizov’s camp has been threatening the Wild with all offseason.

The Wild, which began contract talks with Kaprizov’s agent Paul Theofanous in March, have long had offers on the table for seven years and eight years in the $9 million range, sources continue to say. That would be by far the richest annual contract in franchise history for the 2021 Calder Trophy winner.

Wild general manager Bill Guerin has indicated for a month that he’s willing to compromise by signing Kaprizov to a mid-range deal believed to be five or six years. However, Guerin still prefers not to sign Kaprizov to three or fewer years because the star forward can become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2024.

Guerin declined to comment Monday night, but the Wild still expect to get a contract consummated with Kaprizov despite the threat continuing to come from Kaprizov’s side.

Theofanous did not respond to a text message Monday night.

As reported by The Athletic for weeks, the two sides remain in constant communication but are in a complete stalemate. The Wild are willing to sign Kaprizov to a contract in the $8 or $9 million range at a variety of terms, but Kaprizov’s camp continues to seek shorter term deals at more money.

A fifth-round pick in 2015, two-time KHL leading goal scorer and 2018 Olympic hero, Kaprizov finally arrived in Minnesota after more than five years this past winter. He led all NHL rookies with 27 goals and 51 points in 55 games, and scored two goals and an assist in seven postseason games during the Wild’s first-round playoff exit to the Vegas Golden Knights.

Pressure will now ratchet up as Sept. 1 fast approaches.

Guerin likely doesn’t want to negotiate against himself for a free agent who has no contractual rights (he couldn’t elect arbitration and can’t sign an offer sheet with another team) and only 55 games of NHL experience. But Kaprizov is already considered one of the most talented players in Wild history and a rising star, so do the Wild up the offers, call Kaprizov’s bluff and see if he’d actually return to Russia after finally arriving and delivering in the NHL, or would the Wild even consider trading his rights?

It’s hard to imagine Guerin trading an unsigned Kaprizov, though.

The Wild also continue to negotiate a contract with high-profile restricted free agent Kevin Fiala. It sounds like there has been some headway lately in talks and the hope is the two sides can settle on a new contract before his Aug. 17 club-elected arbitration hearing. If no contract can be mutually agreed upon, Fiala can choose between a one- or a two-year award from the neutral arbitrator.
Post #: 250
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