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RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season

 
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RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/29/2024 1:05:57 PM   
TJSweens


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

The one that fouled out KAT is the very definition of what is supposed to now be called an Offensive Foul. But Luka is one of the "chosen few"...

https://x.com/ClutchPoints/status/1795651753519808675

It was marginal. But yeah the refs aren’t going to call Doncic in a playoff game 4th quarter at home.

And Towns just can’t get suckered in like that playing with 5 fouls. Luka knew exactly what he was doing, trying to get Towns out of the game. And it worked.

When the defender goes airborne and there is contact, the refs are going to call it that way every time. Especially when someone like Luka is the shooter. Even if I stipulate that it was a bad call, Towns doesn't foul out if he didn't already have 5 incredibly bone headed fouls.

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Post #: 801
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/29/2024 1:12:06 PM   
David Levine


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

The one that fouled out KAT is the very definition of what is supposed to now be called an Offensive Foul. But Luka is one of the "chosen few"...

https://x.com/ClutchPoints/status/1795651753519808675

It was marginal. But yeah the refs aren’t going to call Doncic in a playoff game 4th quarter at home.

And Towns just can’t get suckered in like that playing with 5 fouls. Luka knew exactly what he was doing, trying to get Towns out of the game. And it worked.

When the defender goes airborne and there is contact, the refs are going to call it that way every time. Especially when someone like Luka is the shooter. Even if I stipulate that it was a bad call, Towns doesn't foul out if he didn't already have 5 incredibly bone headed fouls.


KAT was already back on the ground and Luka jumped sideways directly into him.

Its exactly the call the league said they were going to clean up.

Guarantee if it was KAT or Ant shooting, that's an offensive foul 12 out of 10 times.
Post #: 802
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/29/2024 1:19:56 PM   
David Levine


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Funniest thing is Luka is literally the example the Officials use as to what is an illegal motion by an offensive player.

He does the exact same thing in their video example:

https://x.com/NBAOfficial/status/1443591620901761040
Post #: 803
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/29/2024 1:25:59 PM   
TJSweens


Posts: 44629
Joined: 7/16/2007
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

The one that fouled out KAT is the very definition of what is supposed to now be called an Offensive Foul. But Luka is one of the "chosen few"...

https://x.com/ClutchPoints/status/1795651753519808675

It was marginal. But yeah the refs aren’t going to call Doncic in a playoff game 4th quarter at home.

And Towns just can’t get suckered in like that playing with 5 fouls. Luka knew exactly what he was doing, trying to get Towns out of the game. And it worked.

When the defender goes airborne and there is contact, the refs are going to call it that way every time. Especially when someone like Luka is the shooter. Even if I stipulate that it was a bad call, Towns doesn't foul out if he didn't already have 5 incredibly bone headed fouls.


KAT was already back on the ground and Luka jumped sideways directly into him.

Its exactly the call the league said they were going to clean up.

Guarantee if it was KAT or Ant shooting, that's an offensive foul 12 out of 10 times.

I disagree, on the outcome if it were KAT or Ant. The league has been saying they were going to clean up that call since Sam Cassell was doing it routinely. Except for charges and illegal screens, contact calls almost always go against the defender. And yes, even more so when the offensive player is one of the chosen ones.

As I said, KAT doesn't foul out on a bad call if it wasn't for 5 really dumb fouls that preceded it.

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Post #: 804
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/29/2024 1:30:55 PM   
David Levine


Posts: 77048
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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

The one that fouled out KAT is the very definition of what is supposed to now be called an Offensive Foul. But Luka is one of the "chosen few"...

https://x.com/ClutchPoints/status/1795651753519808675

It was marginal. But yeah the refs aren’t going to call Doncic in a playoff game 4th quarter at home.

And Towns just can’t get suckered in like that playing with 5 fouls. Luka knew exactly what he was doing, trying to get Towns out of the game. And it worked.

When the defender goes airborne and there is contact, the refs are going to call it that way every time. Especially when someone like Luka is the shooter. Even if I stipulate that it was a bad call, Towns doesn't foul out if he didn't already have 5 incredibly bone headed fouls.


KAT was already back on the ground and Luka jumped sideways directly into him.

Its exactly the call the league said they were going to clean up.

Guarantee if it was KAT or Ant shooting, that's an offensive foul 12 out of 10 times.

I disagree, on the outcome if it were KAT or Ant. The league has been saying they were going to clean up that call since Sam Cassell was doing it routinely. Except for charges and illegal screens, contact calls almost always go against the defender. And yes, even more so when the offensive player is one of the chosen ones.

As I said, KAT doesn't foul out on a bad call if it wasn't for 5 really dumb fouls that preceded it.


For the 2021-22 NBA season, there will be an interpretive change in the officiating of overt, abrupt or abnormal non-basketball moves by offensive players with the ball in an effort to draw fouls. The following Points of Education videos showcase areas where a change was needed:

The first example is literally Luka doing exactly what he did to KAT last night.

You really think the officials would've fouled Luka out if Ant did the same thing?
Post #: 805
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/29/2024 1:52:37 PM   
TJSweens


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Luka is smart enough not to pick up 5 dumb fouls like KAT, so he wouldn't be in position to foul out in the first place. Take away all of the context and have Ant do it 10 times to Luka, there would likely be a mixed bag of outcomes.

So again, my point is that it takes 6 fouls to get booted from a game. I'm a lot more bothered by the 5 stupid fouls KAT committed than the one questionable call. Those fouls put him on the bench for long stretches. He went from 0 to 2 fouls in a minute. Come back on the floor, hit a couple of big and pick up another bad foul. Rinse and repeat until the ill fated call defending Luka.

_____________________________

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Post #: 806
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/29/2024 7:23:51 PM   
DavidAOlson

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

David, just curious.

You showed that 4 of 155 games went to a game 7. How many of those 4 that all lost, were played in their home court ?


No clue. With only 4 games, you couldn't draw any statistical conclusions anyway.

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Post #: 807
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/29/2024 7:36:56 PM  1 votes
DavidAOlson

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

The one that fouled out KAT is the very definition of what is supposed to now be called an Offensive Foul. But Luka is one of the "chosen few"...

https://x.com/ClutchPoints/status/1795651753519808675


I was wondering. I re-watched a handful of times. Kat came down short of Luka, clearly leaning away from him. Then Luka dropped his shoulder and jumped into Kat.

(I see this exact discussion happened.)


After looking at the reference example, Kat did even less because he was already down when Luka jumped into him. If that's the reference example, Kat got screwed. No question, it was a blown call.

https://x.com/NBAOfficial/status/1443591620901761040

_____________________________

I give myself very good advice, but I very seldom follow it. --- Alice
Post #: 808
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 5:15:07 AM   
Karl Juhnke


Posts: 12738
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Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: DavidAOlson

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

The one that fouled out KAT is the very definition of what is supposed to now be called an Offensive Foul. But Luka is one of the "chosen few"...

https://x.com/ClutchPoints/status/1795651753519808675


I was wondering. I re-watched a handful of times. Kat came down short of Luka, clearly leaning away from him. Then Luka dropped his shoulder and jumped into Kat.

(I see this exact discussion happened.)


After looking at the reference example, Kat did even less because he was already down when Luka jumped into him. If that's the reference example, Kat got screwed. No question, it was a blown call.

https://x.com/NBAOfficial/status/1443591620901761040


But when you’re playing with 5 fouls you can’t even put yourself in the position to let the refs make a bad call. Just contest the best you can by staying in front of him and going straight up. And if he makes it he makes it.

He probably shouldn’t have even been guarding Luka anyway. As has been discussed, Luka gets calls, and he’s going to use that to his advantage when he gets a chance to get the opponent’s hottest shooter out of the game.

< Message edited by Karl Juhnke -- 5/30/2024 5:16:21 AM >
Post #: 809
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 6:08:01 AM  1 votes
Bill Jandro

 

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The chosen one and chosen team whistle is what has always really bothered me about the NBA. A foul is a foul and should be called by the letter of the law whether it's a superstar or a G leaguer.

People pay good money to go to a game to see the players play. Not the refs determining outcomes.

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Post #: 810
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 7:51:58 AM   
Karl Juhnke


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Prediction. Wolves win in a blowout tonight, having their shining moment in front of the home crowd and giving fans real hope for pulling off a miracle.

…then they’ll go back down to Dallas and lose.
Post #: 811
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 9:02:29 AM   
TJSweens


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I don't think we can expect Kyrie and Luka the Bitch to miss shots like last game. The Wolves need KAT to be on his game and be able to stay on the floor. That means no defensive fouls out by half court, no plowing over defenders who are set a full 10 feet before KAT gets to the spot, no flashing out up top and flattening the ball handler, no fouling a guy who grabs a rebound under his own basket and no leaping elbow first into a defender's jaw. For better or worse, KAT is the key to winning. Nobody else can do what he does in support of Edwards. KAT is either on his game and on the floor or the Wolves lose.

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Post #: 812
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 12:18:11 PM   
Phil Riewer


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

I don't think we can expect Kyrie and Luka the Bitch to miss shots like last game. The Wolves need KAT to be on his game and be able to stay on the floor. That means no defensive fouls out by half court, no plowing over defenders who are set a full 10 feet before KAT gets to the spot, no flashing out up top and flattening the ball handler, no fouling a guy who grabs a rebound under his own basket and no leaping elbow first into a defender's jaw. For better or worse, KAT is the key to winning. Nobody else can do what he does in support of Edwards. KAT is either on his game and on the floor or the Wolves lose.


To add to this---no early game or late quarter turnover palooza. Also need to protect the rim better in that the shot blockers can't leave their feet as much to help defend another guy.

Rudy did that more in the last game. Help defend but with Phi Slama Jama that Dallas likes---try not to leave your feet when you come to help and leave your guy open for an alley oop dunk.

(Gafford was 6/6 on FGs last game)

< Message edited by Phil Riewer -- 5/30/2024 12:20:04 PM >


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Post #: 813
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 2:40:42 PM   
Bill Johanesen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DavidAOlson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke

I find it amazing that no NBA team has ever come back from down 3-0. I get that it should be exceedingly rare, but not once?

So what are The Wolves chances? I say extremely slim but not zero. The reason it hasn’t happened is, of course in order to get down 3-0 the better team has won. So the odds of a worse team winning 4 straight is minuscule.

If ever a team could do it though, it would be a series like this. Dallas is not a clearly better team. They are roughly equal say. They have just won 3 coin flips in a row.

So do I expect the Wolves to make history? No. Bit the chance is not zero, as history might suggest. They’d have to now win 4 coin flips in a row. The chance of doing that is 1/16.


FWIW

155 previous series that went to 3-0

95 ended in 4, 95/155 = 61%.
45 ended in 5, 45/60 = 75%
11 ended in 6, 11/15 = 73%
4 ended in 7. 4/4 = 100%.

By the time it gets to 3-3, I'd think the last game should be a flip. And game 6 should be close to a flip. But no. It's game 4 where the team that's down seems to over perform.

Anyway, the team up 3-0 is about a 75% favorite (no other info). But I think your coin flip estimate isn't far off.

And if Ant is finally recovering from that game 6 hard fall (David Levine, post 733), maybe it's even better. Still a long shot, obviously.


I think it's more that the team that's up 3-0 tends to get lackadaisical.
Post #: 814
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 3:20:02 PM   
twinsfan


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

I don't think we can expect Kyrie and Luka the Bitch to miss shots like last game. The Wolves need KAT to be on his game and be able to stay on the floor. That means no defensive fouls out by half court, no plowing over defenders who are set a full 10 feet before KAT gets to the spot, no flashing out up top and flattening the ball handler, no fouling a guy who grabs a rebound under his own basket and no leaping elbow first into a defender's jaw. For better or worse, KAT is the key to winning. Nobody else can do what he does in support of Edwards. KAT is either on his game and on the floor or the Wolves lose.

I wouldn't mind Target Center setting up a crosswind situation with the air on whichever side the Mavs are shooting each quarter.

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Post #: 815
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 3:21:47 PM   
twinsfan


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: DavidAOlson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke

I find it amazing that no NBA team has ever come back from down 3-0. I get that it should be exceedingly rare, but not once?

So what are The Wolves chances? I say extremely slim but not zero. The reason it hasn’t happened is, of course in order to get down 3-0 the better team has won. So the odds of a worse team winning 4 straight is minuscule.

If ever a team could do it though, it would be a series like this. Dallas is not a clearly better team. They are roughly equal say. They have just won 3 coin flips in a row.

So do I expect the Wolves to make history? No. Bit the chance is not zero, as history might suggest. They’d have to now win 4 coin flips in a row. The chance of doing that is 1/16.


FWIW

155 previous series that went to 3-0

95 ended in 4, 95/155 = 61%.
45 ended in 5, 45/60 = 75%
11 ended in 6, 11/15 = 73%
4 ended in 7. 4/4 = 100%.

By the time it gets to 3-3, I'd think the last game should be a flip. And game 6 should be close to a flip. But no. It's game 4 where the team that's down seems to over perform.

Anyway, the team up 3-0 is about a 75% favorite (no other info). But I think your coin flip estimate isn't far off.

And if Ant is finally recovering from that game 6 hard fall (David Levine, post 733), maybe it's even better. Still a long shot, obviously.


I think it's more that the team that's up 3-0 tends to get lackadaisical.

In only 1 of those 155 series was it the team with a better regular season record that started down 3-0.

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Post #: 816
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 3:41:20 PM   
Phil Riewer


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Dallas is a different team now....going to be a battle tonight no matter what.

If they want to win (tonight) they have to cut back on the 1) stupid fouls, 2) TOs, and 3) Easy Baskets for the opposition.

< Message edited by Phil Riewer -- 5/30/2024 3:43:48 PM >


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Post #: 817
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 4:33:19 PM   
Bill Jandro

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

Dallas is a different team now....going to be a battle tonight no matter what.

If they want to win (tonight) they have to cut back on the 1) stupid fouls, 2) TOs, and 3) Easy Baskets for the opposition.

4) Stay in front of the Pillsbury Dough Boy. How hard can that really be? When he gets in the lane it's an easy bucket for him or an ally oop.

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Post #: 818
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 5:05:24 PM   
Phil Riewer


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

Dallas is a different team now....going to be a battle tonight no matter what.

If they want to win (tonight) they have to cut back on the 1) stupid fouls, 2) TOs, and 3) Easy Baskets for the opposition.

4) Stay in front of the Pillsbury Dough Boy. How hard can that really be? When he gets in the lane it's an easy bucket for him or an ally oop.


He is able to do that against basically everyone. He is a smaller version of Jokic. Doesn't look fast or quick but hard to stop.

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Post #: 819
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 6:38:05 PM   
twinsfan


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Uh oh. Conley is banged up again.

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Post #: 820
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 8:06:47 PM   
TJSweens


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Down 16 at the quarter. Luka the Bitch is raining 3's and Ant can't even make free throws.

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Post #: 821
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 8:08:20 PM   
bstinger


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ANT & the team getting embarrassed at home.

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Post #: 822
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 8:09:30 PM   
bstinger


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When we're bad, we're really bad.

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Post #: 823
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 8:10:11 PM   
TJSweens


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Why is Rudy the focal point of the offense?

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"The eternal fate of the noble and enlightened: to be brutally crushed by the armed and dumb."
Post #: 824
RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season - 5/30/2024 8:10:22 PM   
bstinger


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Fans should revolt for the craptastic performances they've had to overpay to watch.

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Post #: 825
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