quote:

ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

The one that fouled out KAT is the very definition of what is supposed to now be called an Offensive Foul. But Luka is one of the "chosen few"...

https://x.com/ClutchPoints/status/1795651753519808675

It was marginal. But yeah the refs aren’t going to call Doncic in a playoff game 4th quarter at home.

And Towns just can’t get suckered in like that playing with 5 fouls. Luka knew exactly what he was doing, trying to get Towns out of the game. And it worked.

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

The one that fouled out KAT is the very definition of what is supposed to now be called an Offensive Foul. But Luka is one of the "chosen few"...

https://x.com/ClutchPoints/status/1795651753519808675

It was marginal. But yeah the refs aren’t going to call Doncic in a playoff game 4th quarter at home.

And Towns just can’t get suckered in like that playing with 5 fouls. Luka knew exactly what he was doing, trying to get Towns out of the game. And it worked.

When the defender goes airborne and there is contact, the refs are going to call it that way every time. Especially when someone like Luka is the shooter. Even if I stipulate that it was a bad call, Towns doesn't foul out if he didn't already have 5 incredibly bone headed fouls.

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

The one that fouled out KAT is the very definition of what is supposed to now be called an Offensive Foul. But Luka is one of the "chosen few"...

https://x.com/ClutchPoints/status/1795651753519808675

It was marginal. But yeah the refs aren’t going to call Doncic in a playoff game 4th quarter at home.

And Towns just can’t get suckered in like that playing with 5 fouls. Luka knew exactly what he was doing, trying to get Towns out of the game. And it worked.

When the defender goes airborne and there is contact, the refs are going to call it that way every time. Especially when someone like Luka is the shooter. Even if I stipulate that it was a bad call, Towns doesn't foul out if he didn't already have 5 incredibly bone headed fouls.

KAT was already back on the ground and Luka jumped sideways directly into him.

Its exactly the call the league said they were going to clean up.

Guarantee if it was KAT or Ant shooting, that's an offensive foul 12 out of 10 times.

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

The one that fouled out KAT is the very definition of what is supposed to now be called an Offensive Foul. But Luka is one of the "chosen few"...

https://x.com/ClutchPoints/status/1795651753519808675

It was marginal. But yeah the refs aren’t going to call Doncic in a playoff game 4th quarter at home.

And Towns just can’t get suckered in like that playing with 5 fouls. Luka knew exactly what he was doing, trying to get Towns out of the game. And it worked.

When the defender goes airborne and there is contact, the refs are going to call it that way every time. Especially when someone like Luka is the shooter. Even if I stipulate that it was a bad call, Towns doesn't foul out if he didn't already have 5 incredibly bone headed fouls.

KAT was already back on the ground and Luka jumped sideways directly into him.

Its exactly the call the league said they were going to clean up.

Guarantee if it was KAT or Ant shooting, that's an offensive foul 12 out of 10 times.

I disagree, on the outcome if it were KAT or Ant. The league has been saying they were going to clean up that call since Sam Cassell was doing it routinely. Except for charges and illegal screens, contact calls almost always go against the defender. And yes, even more so when the offensive player is one of the chosen ones.

As I said, KAT doesn't foul out on a bad call if it wasn't for 5 really dumb fouls that preceded it.

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

David, just curious.

You showed that 4 of 155 games went to a game 7. How many of those 4 that all lost, were played in their home court ?

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

The one that fouled out KAT is the very definition of what is supposed to now be called an Offensive Foul. But Luka is one of the "chosen few"...

https://x.com/ClutchPoints/status/1795651753519808675

quote:

ORIGINAL: DavidAOlson

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

The one that fouled out KAT is the very definition of what is supposed to now be called an Offensive Foul. But Luka is one of the "chosen few"...

https://x.com/ClutchPoints/status/1795651753519808675

I was wondering. I re-watched a handful of times. Kat came down short of Luka, clearly leaning away from him. Then Luka dropped his shoulder and jumped into Kat.

(I see this exact discussion happened.)


After looking at the reference example, Kat did even less because he was already down when Luka jumped into him. If that's the reference example, Kat got screwed. No question, it was a blown call.

https://x.com/NBAOfficial/status/1443591620901761040

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

I don't think we can expect Kyrie and Luka the Bitch to miss shots like last game. The Wolves need KAT to be on his game and be able to stay on the floor. That means no defensive fouls out by half court, no plowing over defenders who are set a full 10 feet before KAT gets to the spot, no flashing out up top and flattening the ball handler, no fouling a guy who grabs a rebound under his own basket and no leaping elbow first into a defender's jaw. For better or worse, KAT is the key to winning. Nobody else can do what he does in support of Edwards. KAT is either on his game and on the floor or the Wolves lose.

quote:

ORIGINAL: DavidAOlson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke

I find it amazing that no NBA team has ever come back from down 3-0. I get that it should be exceedingly rare, but not once?

So what are The Wolves chances? I say extremely slim but not zero. The reason it hasn’t happened is, of course in order to get down 3-0 the better team has won. So the odds of a worse team winning 4 straight is minuscule.

If ever a team could do it though, it would be a series like this. Dallas is not a clearly better team. They are roughly equal say. They have just won 3 coin flips in a row.

So do I expect the Wolves to make history? No. Bit the chance is not zero, as history might suggest. They’d have to now win 4 coin flips in a row. The chance of doing that is 1/16.

FWIW

155 previous series that went to 3-0

95 ended in 4, 95/155 = 61%.
45 ended in 5, 45/60 = 75%
11 ended in 6, 11/15 = 73%
4 ended in 7. 4/4 = 100%.

By the time it gets to 3-3, I'd think the last game should be a flip. And game 6 should be close to a flip. But no. It's game 4 where the team that's down seems to over perform.

Anyway, the team up 3-0 is about a 75% favorite (no other info). But I think your coin flip estimate isn't far off.

And if Ant is finally recovering from that game 6 hard fall (David Levine, post 733), maybe it's even better. Still a long shot, obviously.

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

I don't think we can expect Kyrie and Luka the Bitch to miss shots like last game. The Wolves need KAT to be on his game and be able to stay on the floor. That means no defensive fouls out by half court, no plowing over defenders who are set a full 10 feet before KAT gets to the spot, no flashing out up top and flattening the ball handler, no fouling a guy who grabs a rebound under his own basket and no leaping elbow first into a defender's jaw. For better or worse, KAT is the key to winning. Nobody else can do what he does in support of Edwards. KAT is either on his game and on the floor or the Wolves lose.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: DavidAOlson

quote:

ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke

I find it amazing that no NBA team has ever come back from down 3-0. I get that it should be exceedingly rare, but not once?

So what are The Wolves chances? I say extremely slim but not zero. The reason it hasn’t happened is, of course in order to get down 3-0 the better team has won. So the odds of a worse team winning 4 straight is minuscule.

If ever a team could do it though, it would be a series like this. Dallas is not a clearly better team. They are roughly equal say. They have just won 3 coin flips in a row.

So do I expect the Wolves to make history? No. Bit the chance is not zero, as history might suggest. They’d have to now win 4 coin flips in a row. The chance of doing that is 1/16.

FWIW

155 previous series that went to 3-0

95 ended in 4, 95/155 = 61%.
45 ended in 5, 45/60 = 75%
11 ended in 6, 11/15 = 73%
4 ended in 7. 4/4 = 100%.

By the time it gets to 3-3, I'd think the last game should be a flip. And game 6 should be close to a flip. But no. It's game 4 where the team that's down seems to over perform.

Anyway, the team up 3-0 is about a 75% favorite (no other info). But I think your coin flip estimate isn't far off.

And if Ant is finally recovering from that game 6 hard fall (David Levine, post 733), maybe it's even better. Still a long shot, obviously.

I think it's more that the team that's up 3-0 tends to get lackadaisical.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

Dallas is a different team now....going to be a battle tonight no matter what.

If they want to win (tonight) they have to cut back on the 1) stupid fouls, 2) TOs, and 3) Easy Baskets for the opposition.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

Dallas is a different team now....going to be a battle tonight no matter what.

If they want to win (tonight) they have to cut back on the 1) stupid fouls, 2) TOs, and 3) Easy Baskets for the opposition.

4) Stay in front of the Pillsbury Dough Boy. How hard can that really be? When he gets in the lane it's an easy bucket for him or an ally oop.