twinsfan
Posts: 63098
Joined: 12/21/2009
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen quote:
ORIGINAL: DavidAOlson quote:
ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke I find it amazing that no NBA team has ever come back from down 3-0. I get that it should be exceedingly rare, but not once? So what are The Wolves chances? I say extremely slim but not zero. The reason it hasn’t happened is, of course in order to get down 3-0 the better team has won. So the odds of a worse team winning 4 straight is minuscule. If ever a team could do it though, it would be a series like this. Dallas is not a clearly better team. They are roughly equal say. They have just won 3 coin flips in a row. So do I expect the Wolves to make history? No. Bit the chance is not zero, as history might suggest. They’d have to now win 4 coin flips in a row. The chance of doing that is 1/16. FWIW 155 previous series that went to 3-0 95 ended in 4, 95/155 = 61%. 45 ended in 5, 45/60 = 75% 11 ended in 6, 11/15 = 73% 4 ended in 7. 4/4 = 100%. By the time it gets to 3-3, I'd think the last game should be a flip. And game 6 should be close to a flip. But no. It's game 4 where the team that's down seems to over perform. Anyway, the team up 3-0 is about a 75% favorite (no other info). But I think your coin flip estimate isn't far off. And if Ant is finally recovering from that game 6 hard fall (David Levine, post 733), maybe it's even better. Still a long shot, obviously. I think it's more that the team that's up 3-0 tends to get lackadaisical. In only 1 of those 155 series was it the team with a better regular season record that started down 3-0.
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Magic Number Billy Hamilton 0
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