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RE: 2024 Draft - 1/24/2024 4:25:52 AM

Todd M

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Getting a guy at our spot and keeping Jefferson is my new hope. I’m glad we didn’t sell the farm last year and I’ve changed my tune on wanting to do it this year. I’m just going to go in hoping fortune favors us for a change.

Post #: 76

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/24/2024 9:03:09 AM

Bill Johanesen

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JT2

quote:

ORIGINAL: Jeff Jesser

My last thought, for now, is JJM. Every time I saw him I came away unimpressed. Not saying he can't be the guy I didn't see anything special. I've heard that was Harbaugh not letting him but I do wonder if that's just not the case. His combine will be a huge factor for him, IMO.

He's going to impress everybody with his combine performance. He's fast, quick and fundamentally sound on all aspects of being a NFL QB.
He's coachable. He played to the strength of his team. Smash mouth run it down your throat football. He did have the best passer rating in all of college football on passes outside of the pocket.

I'll say it again, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he's the best NFL QB from this draft.

Sounds like he might be one of those players that climbs the rankings in the projections/mocks.

He's also 'only' 21. Some of the other top QBs are several years older. Seems they should be expected to be more refined with those extra years of playing and maturity. Conversely, you have more game footage and should have a better idea on what they bring to the table. Double-edged sword?

Post #: 77

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/25/2024 7:23:16 AM

Brad H

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jeff Jesser

I don't quite see it that way. Because his dead cap decision has to be made by Mid March, they either have to resign him before or eat that. You aren't eating 28 million and tacking on another 30+ on a new deal. JMO but, they either work something out soon or he's gone. He's not the type of guy that would consider the 28 coming and say "just make up the difference and give me 7 mill on the new contract".

He's going to demand 35+ and take his 28 to boot.

Without seeing if he is healthy, I am passing on that. That would be my message.

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Post #: 78

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/25/2024 7:32:22 AM

Brad H

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Vikings fans have always been obsessed with great wide receivers. It hasn't produced any titles.

Look at the final four teams in the playoffs. With Deebo 50/50 to play, the most high-profile remaining receiver might be St. Brown in Detroit. The bottom line is, there is no perceived divas remaining. Beckham is still in Baltimore, but he's a shadow of his former self.

I like Jefferson as a player, but I feel the same way about him as I did Moss, Cris Carter, Diggs, Rashad, you name it. They are a piece of the puzzle. If they suddenly want crazy diva money, they likely aren't worth it. And frankly, Jefferson is starting to take on diva qualities.

New England was as good of a dynasty as we have ever seen. Did Julian Edelman ever demand major money? Pittsburgh had Antonio Brown, who fell off the shelf once he got his cash. Tyreek got one with the Chiefs, but he wasn't the sole centerpiece of the offense at the time. Victor Cruz with the Giants? Emmanuel Sanders in Denver? Neither of those guys strike me as divas.

A key ingredient for all four remaining teams is a great tight end. That, and fairly consistent play from the quarterback.

< Message edited by Brad H -- 1/25/2024 7:48:30 AM >

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Post #: 79

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/25/2024 7:58:44 AM

bstinger

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Todd M

Getting a guy at our spot and keeping Jefferson is my new hope. I’m glad we didn’t sell the farm last year and I’ve changed my tune on wanting to do it this year. I’m just going to go in hoping fortune favors us for a change.

Hope is not a strategy.

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"You guys are true athletes!"

--twinsfan

Post #: 80

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/25/2024 8:01:43 AM

bstinger

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jeff Jesser

I don't quite see it that way. Because his dead cap decision has to be made by Mid March, they either have to resign him before or eat that. You aren't eating 28 million and tacking on another 30+ on a new deal. JMO but, they either work something out soon or he's gone. He's not the type of guy that would consider the 28 coming and say "just make up the difference and give me 7 mill on the new contract".

He's going to demand 35+ and take his 28 to boot.

_____________________________

"You guys are true athletes!"

--twinsfan

Post #: 81

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/25/2024 8:02:26 AM

Brad H

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Hypothetical:

Should the Bears or Cardinals have an interest in Justin Jefferson, do you deal him for one of their top picks?

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Defense starts at the corners!

Post #: 82

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/25/2024 8:50:49 AM

Phil Riewer

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H
Hypothetical:
Should the Bears or Cardinals have an interest in Justin Jefferson, do you deal him for one of their top picks?

Our pick and JJ to move up then? I would be 50/50 (depending where we are in contract negotiations).

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Post #: 83

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/25/2024 9:58:40 AM

Trekgeekscott

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H
Hypothetical:
Should the Bears or Cardinals have an interest in Justin Jefferson, do you deal him for one of their top picks?

Our pick and JJ to move up then? I would be 50/50 (depending where we are in contract negotiations).

We'd better get a lot more for JJ if we trade him. Pairing him with a high draft pick to move up would be unacceptable.

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I don't want to go through things that don't kill me and make me stronger anymore.

Post #: 84

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/25/2024 9:59:28 AM

Trekgeekscott

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Hypothetical:

Should the Bears or Cardinals have an interest in Justin Jefferson, do you deal him for one of their top picks?

You don't trade JJ. but if you do, you don't give him to a division rival.

_____________________________

I don't want to go through things that don't kill me and make me stronger anymore.

Post #: 85

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/25/2024 10:03:14 AM

Brad H

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Hypothetical:

Should the Bears or Cardinals have an interest in Justin Jefferson, do you deal him for one of their top picks?

You don't trade JJ. but if you do, you don't give him to a division rival.

Why? That's an old philosophy, but nobody has ever been able to tell me why it has any merit.

If you believe in the philosophy that diva wide receivers don't win titles, what would it matter who you dealt him to?

_____________________________

Defense starts at the corners!

Post #: 86

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/25/2024 10:05:43 AM

Trekgeekscott

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Hypothetical:

Should the Bears or Cardinals have an interest in Justin Jefferson, do you deal him for one of their top picks?

You don't trade JJ. but if you do, you don't give him to a division rival.

Why? That's an old philosophy, but nobody has ever been able to tell me why it has any merit.

If you believe in the philosophy that diva wide receivers don't win titles, what would it matter who you dealt him to?

So you don't have to face a very talented (probably the best one in the NFL right now) twice a year for years to come.

Bears wouldn't do it because they will want draft capital for the higher picks. We would deserve more for JJ than they would give.

Not happening.

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I don't want to go through things that don't kill me and make me stronger anymore.

Post #: 87

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/25/2024 10:22:17 AM

Brad H

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Hypothetical:

Should the Bears or Cardinals have an interest in Justin Jefferson, do you deal him for one of their top picks?

You don't trade JJ. but if you do, you don't give him to a division rival.

Why? That's an old philosophy, but nobody has ever been able to tell me why it has any merit.

If you believe in the philosophy that diva wide receivers don't win titles, what would it matter who you dealt him to?

So you don't have to face a very talented (probably the best one in the NFL right now) twice a year for years to come.

That's silly. If they want the baggage of a big contract guy that isn't winning them a title, why would we deny them of it?

High-priced diva wide receivers don't win titles. Or at the very least, there isn't a long history of it.

In addition to his big contract, Jefferson has now started to show signs of soft-tissue issues. It's been my experience that those things don't go away once they start coming. If I were the GM, I would quickly be looking for ways to dump his contract on someone else.

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Post #: 88

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/25/2024 11:57:01 AM

Bill Johanesen

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Hypothetical:

Should the Bears or Cardinals have an interest in Justin Jefferson, do you deal him for one of their top picks?

You don't trade JJ. but if you do, you don't give him to a division rival.

More like the Bears would say you don't trade the rights to draft Caleb Williams, but if you do you don't do it with a division rival. JJ isn't some invincible force. The Giants bottled him up easily in his only playoff game (47 yards, 0 TDs). And I don't recall the offense going into some giant tailspin during his extended absence.

JJ for the #1 overall, absolutely but that wouldn't happen. We could have Caleb, maybe the top-rated defensive player in the draft, and $30 million more a year in cap space. Draftees are a gamble, but that's an easy trade for the Vikings.

JJ and #11? Could depend on who is there at #11, so that would entail trading after Chi made their selection. Probably not enough to move up to #1.

Spitballing... the more likely price would be JJ and two #1s. That's too much, but I don't think he's worth $30+ million a year.

< Message edited by Bill Johanesen -- 1/25/2024 12:23:46 PM >

Post #: 89

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/25/2024 12:17:05 PM

marty

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If both parties feel like they are benefitting, and maybe one or both sides feel it is fleecing the other side, then you trade within the division.

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Post #: 90

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/25/2024 1:34:12 PM

Mark Anderson

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Trekgeekscott

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Hypothetical:

Should the Bears or Cardinals have an interest in Justin Jefferson, do you deal him for one of their top picks?

You don't trade JJ. but if you do, you don't give him to a division rival.

More like the Bears would say you don't trade the rights to draft Caleb Williams, but if you do you don't do it with a division rival. JJ isn't some invincible force. The Giants bottled him up easily in his only playoff game (47 yards, 0 TDs). And I don't recall the offense going into some giant tailspin during his extended absence.

JJ for the #1 overall, absolutely but that wouldn't happen. We could have Caleb, maybe the top-rated defensive player in the draft, and $30 million more a year in cap space. Draftees are a gamble, but that's an easy trade for the Vikings.

JJ and #11? Could depend on who is there at #11, so that would entail trading after Chi made their selection. Probably not enough to move up to #1.

Spitballing... the more likely price would be JJ and two #1s. That's too much, but I don't think he's worth $30+ million a year.

I've been on the sign JJ bandwagon but maybe I should reconsider.

It seems that premium high school athletes are choosing the WR position with the way the pro game has progressed.

Would it be easier to find another JJ type player or a stud QBOTF? Probably WR

Post #: 91

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/26/2024 6:49:38 PM

David Levine

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Nick Miller’s Database on the Top Quarterbacks in the 2024 Draft Class

A couple days ago, Nick Miller from Climbing The Pocket created a very insightful spreadsheet featuring some advanced statistics for each of the top six quarterbacks that I just mentioned. The database contains several different categories including broad data, 3rd and 7+, 3rd and 4th down accuracy, passing depth of target + PFF grades, accuracy on 10-19 air yards, on target percentage, and quarterback scrambling effectiveness.

There are a lot of different takeaways that one can come away with here, however I will say that I personally thought J.J. McCarthy’s advanced stats looked surprisingly good compared to some other prospects who are widely considered to be better than him. I’ve seen some people on Twitter/X say that J.J. McCarthy is someone who won’t be drafted until later in the first round. I wouldn’t be surprised if McCarthy is a top 15 pick. Especially with teams like Atlanta, Minnesota, Las Vegas, and Denver all needing quarterbacks.

quote:

J.J. McCarthy's advanced stats look very good here. On 3rd and 7+ McCarthy ranks:

#1 in 1st down/att %
#1 in NFL PR
#2 in comp %
#2 in yard/attempt

quote:

Interesting #'s.....the ones I can understand that stand out for me is how accurate McCarthy is when moving/scrambling. I expected he would be significantly behind the others in total attempts but he's not. Nix is most accurate overall but that may reflect their offense, which depended on short passes. Nix does not appear to be as mobile as McCarthy.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19OPA99nqAenfDUX3NzsyEekbP9EBYUGEBtQqGamflyo/edit#gid=0

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2024/1/26/24049569/nick-millers-database-on-the-top-quarterbacks-in-the-2024-draft-class

Post #: 92

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/26/2024 11:33:27 PM

JT2

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quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Nick Miller’s Database on the Top Quarterbacks in the 2024 Draft Class

A couple days ago, Nick Miller from Climbing The Pocket created a very insightful spreadsheet featuring some advanced statistics for each of the top six quarterbacks that I just mentioned. The database contains several different categories including broad data, 3rd and 7+, 3rd and 4th down accuracy, passing depth of target + PFF grades, accuracy on 10-19 air yards, on target percentage, and quarterback scrambling effectiveness.

There are a lot of different takeaways that one can come away with here, however I will say that I personally thought J.J. McCarthy’s advanced stats looked surprisingly good compared to some other prospects who are widely considered to be better than him. I’ve seen some people on Twitter/X say that J.J. McCarthy is someone who won’t be drafted until later in the first round. I wouldn’t be surprised if McCarthy is a top 15 pick. Especially with teams like Atlanta, Minnesota, Las Vegas, and Denver all needing quarterbacks.

quote:

J.J. McCarthy's advanced stats look very good here. On 3rd and 7+ McCarthy ranks:

#1 in 1st down/att %
#1 in NFL PR
#2 in comp %
#2 in yard/attempt

quote:

Interesting #'s.....the ones I can understand that stand out for me is how accurate McCarthy is when moving/scrambling. I expected he would be significantly behind the others in total attempts but he's not. Nix is most accurate overall but that may reflect their offense, which depended on short passes. Nix does not appear to be as mobile as McCarthy.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19OPA99nqAenfDUX3NzsyEekbP9EBYUGEBtQqGamflyo/edit#gid=0

https://www.dailynorseman.com/2024/1/26/24049569/nick-millers-database-on-the-top-quarterbacks-in-the-2024-draft-class

I've been beating the McCarthy drum for a minute. In addition to the above numbers, he had the best passer rating in the country from outside the pocket. His progression from last season to this has been noteworthy. He can make all the throws, his mechanics are top-notch and he's an above average athlete. He's coachable and disciplined. He's poised and can read a defense. Harbaugh mentioned earlier in the season that he would routinely check out of a pass play and most times that he did, the play resulted in a big run gain. He played to win, and succeeded. The fact that he didn't throw 30 times a game doesn't mean he can't, yet some people hold on to that as the reason he's inferior to the flashy, sling it cats that didn't win a National Championship. We would be lucky to land him.

I said it before, and I promise not to keep saying it (after this time) but I would not at all be surprised if he ends up being the best NFL QB in this draft. I hope we have enough interest that we properly interview/vet him. If he's a full participant in the combine, he's going to shoot up the draft boards.

< Message edited by JT2 -- 1/27/2024 12:34:57 AM >

Post #: 93

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/27/2024 10:15:28 AM

Jeff Jesser

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I’ve taken the opposite view of him but fully admit that I don’t know shit. When I’ve seen him he seems’ok’ but nothing special. Good athlete, pretty decent arm but ‘meh’. I did question, out loud, that maybe that was Harbaugh’s system 🤷🏻‍♂️

Post #: 94

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/27/2024 11:01:20 AM

David Levine

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I’m on the fine with JJ wagon.

Post #: 95

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/27/2024 1:54:56 PM

Bill Johanesen

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And if he is 'projected' to go say 15-25 by mocks, so what. Just take him at 11. Another way to say it is if he is the guy, then should the team risk losing him in even a tiny trade back? Absolutely not.

But, in a month that will change to draft JJ only with a small trade back. In two months, it will be don't draft him at all. On draft night, just hope there is a run on defensive players.

Post #: 96

RE: 2024 Draft - 1/28/2024 1:27:17 PM

marty

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JJ throws a TD to JJ