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More from Warren Ludford Daily Norsemen writer.
Warren Ludford: Which QB Do the Vikings Draft Next Month?
What Kevin O’Connell is Looking for in a Quarterback
Sometimes what decision-makers are looking for in a quarterback can be revealing into which quarterback they prefer or may rank highly on their board if they appear to be strong in preferred traits.
For O’Connell, who will be the primary decision-maker when it comes to evaluating quarterbacks, he recently said the key criteria he’s looking for include accuracy, football IQ, and the emotional IQ needed to lead the team.
More specifically, Ben Goessling reports that O’Connell:
“will prioritize private meetings — where they can walk a possible draft pick through their offense and immediately ask him to perform elements of it on the field — over pro days where they don’t control the script. They will use on-field mistakes to see how a QB responds to coaching, and observe a player’s interactions during on-campus lunches to gauge how he handles the spotlight inherent to the position. And they will keep Justin Jefferson informed throughout the spring.”
“When you’re selecting a quarterback of the future, with guys like Justin, Jordan [Addison], T.J. [Hockenson], our passing game thrives off of accuracy, rhythm, timing. Some of the traits that show up on these guys’ tapes, you get really excited about that,” O’Connell said. “But it’s also about toughness, football intelligence, the leadership traits I’m looking for, to take what I believe is one of the strongest locker rooms in the NFL and take it to an even better place as a young player. That’s a dynamic person you’re talking about.”
He cited Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who “went in there and was a part of changing that culture.”
“All of those things matter,” O’Connell said. “That’s why it’s hard to just say one guy versus the other at this point, because there’s so many layers to it.
The Vikings’ typical visits with prospects begin in the classroom, watching college film with a QB to learn how he was coached to approach a given play and going over the Vikings’ playbook to see how quickly a player can absorb new concepts. They’ll go from there into an on-field workout and see “how they respond to us as coaches,” O’Connell said.
“You can ask them questions and see how fast they remember things, how fast they’re digesting the information,” he added. “How clearly can they put that information into real, tangible things that then, I can use as a coach for feedback? You can go on the grass and see if they understand how we want to set our feet and eyes on this drop, or, when we talk about pocket movement, what that looks like. When we talk about on-schedule versus off-schedule, red zone, third down, how it fits within the framework of, not our system, but the system we want to build for them.”
O’Connell will often ask a player to pick his favorite spot for lunch on campus, with the Vikings picking up the tab.
“I want to see how they interact with folks,” the coach said, “because building-changing quarterbacks, they don’t just change the facilities. Any room they ever walk into, they light it up. They change it, they impact it and I think you can see that on display in an authentic way when you do the full process with those trips.”
At this point, it’s difficult to discern any preference for a quarterback based on Kevin O’Connell’s comments, or indeed comments from any decision-maker for the Vikings. O’Connell’s preference for accuracy, rhythm and timing, strong football IQ and emotional IQ could apply to Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, or Michael Penix Jr. Perhaps even Drake Maye if potential growth and/or other circumstances are considered.
O’Connell also said that trading up for a quarterback would be, “a major, major organizational decision” and that everyone from the front office to the coaching staff would need to be aligned with the player in such a move.
Is there such alignment? It wouldn’t appear so at the moment, although signaling a preference to the rest of the league is the last thing the Vikings would want to do. We don’t know how the interviews with each of the quarterbacks went with the Vikings, nor the results of any of the scheduled private meetings/workouts, and those could have an impact on how each quarterback is rated. O’Connell has also acknowledged that college tape plays a major role in evaluations, as is typically the case for any player, so a good deal of their evaluations may already be completed.
(pressure, clean pocket, coverage/scheme, rushing, etc. metrics at the link)
When you look at all of these metrics, particularly with a view toward accuracy, which O’Connell has reiterated several times is a top priority in a quarterback, it’s impossible not to view Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy- in that order- as the leading contenders. If you add in other situational metrics, like throwing past the sticks, 3rd/4th down passing grades, performance under pressure, outside the pocket, and so forth, there is a good argument that Bo Nix leads the pack, followed by Daniels and McCarthy.
Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings’ brass may not share that view and may incorporate other desired traits into their evaluations. But Nix provides, at a minimum, a decent option that won’t cost them more than one first-round draft pick. And you can make the argument that he’s a better option for the Vikings than some others more closely linked to them.
In the meantime, the Vikings have met with top defensive tackle Byron Murphy II three times so far in the pre-draft process. They had a formal interview with him at the Combine, they met with him again before his pro day, and they scheduled a Top 30 workout with him as well. Brian Flores and the Vikings coaching staff also spent time with top CB Quinyon Mitchell at the Senior Bowl. These are players expected to go in the mid-first-round. If the Vikings were to draft one of them, that would likely preclude any big trade up for the Vikings, unless they’re willing to leverage their 2025 first-round pick. That could be enough to outbid the Broncos, however, who don’t have a second-round pick in this draft.
In any case, there are good options available for the Vikings if they don’t feel the need/value in trading up for a quarterback.
It Takes Two to Tango
Various sports media outlets have predicted about 150 of the last 10 first-round draft trades.
The reason for that is even in cases where it makes sense for both sides, coming to terms acceptable to both sides can be difficult.
The first aspect of coming to terms on a trade is a different assessment of prospects and/or different position priorities. For example, one QB-needy team may have a top ten or top five grade on the best available quarterback(s) available at #3, but another QB-needy team picking at #3 may have only mid-first-round grades on them. The team with the top 5/10 grade may be willing to trade up, especially if their grades on other quarterbacks are significantly lower, while the team with mid-first-round grades may be willing to trade down.
The next consideration is the best players available at other positions for each team. Using the same example, the team with mid-round grades on quarterbacks may have top 5 grades on wide receivers available at #3. While quarterback is the highest premium position, and therefore may outweigh considerations of players at other positions, foregoing a top 5 graded wide receiver may figure into what compensation is required to trade down. And for the team trading up, the compensation involved in trading up should be equal or less than the weighted value placed on the best prospect available to them in their current draft position.
Then, in addition to each team reading their own hand, using a poker analogy, they also read the other team’s hand. For example, one team may be more indifferent regarding a potential trade up or down, and therefore not likely to demand premium compensation, but sense the other team is more desperate or has more urgency in getting a deal done. The more indifferent team may then demand premium compensation, sensing the other team may pay it, and because it wouldn’t be a big deal to them if they balked at it. An assessment of the other team’s draft position, needs, and best players available at that spot may also play into the amount of compensation offered/demanded.
Lastly, what competing offers or alternative trade partners are there? Teams looking to trade up, for example, may canvas multiple teams picking in a range sufficient to get the prospect they’re after, looking for the best deal. Similarly, teams on the receiving end of trade offers will play trade offers against each other looking to maximize their compensation.
Given all of the above, it can be difficult for teams to come to terms on a trade, even though there may be interest, particularly in first-round trades when the stakes are higher. That’s why every year there are usually fewer first-round trades than predicted or thought likely.
How Many Top Ten Graded Quarterbacks Are There This Year?
Most evaluators grade at least two of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye as top ten worthy draft picks. I’ve yet to see any other quarterback graded that high, and I’ve seen both Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels graded lower on some draft boards.
That begs the question of how motivated any QB-needy team will be to make a big trade up in the draft, especially if the top two or three quarterbacks are already taken. It seems a near certainty that both the Bears and Commanders will take a quarterback with the first two picks, and there’s a decent chance the Patriots will too if they like who’s available. Both Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy are thought to need to sit for a year to develop, and those aren’t the quarterbacks that are drafted in the top five. Those spots go to those quarterbacks that are thought to be immediate starters. Every quarterback drafted in the top ten picks in the last ten drafts except Trey Lance and Patrick Mahomes started as a rookie.
Bottom Line
The Vikings, despite a lot of hype around their trading up for a quarterback, may not do so. They may not have a quarterback that’s available at #3 or later rated high enough to spend multiple first-round draft picks to get him. Or they may not come to terms on a deal to trade up. They may even happy that everyone thinks they’ll trade up as it provides a smokescreen for their real intentions.
They may also find that at least one of Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, or Michael Penix Jr. is available to them at #11 and/or #23, which alleviates the need to trade up.
At the moment, the Vikings are either the favorites or second-most likely team to draft J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr., and Bo Nix. There are no odds on which team will draft Drake Maye, but if there were it wouldn’t be surprising if the Vikings were among the top 2-3 teams on that list as well.
My guess is that it’ll either be McCarthy or Nix, but a lot can change over the next month or so before the draft begins on April 25th.
Stay tuned.
I'm back on the Nix bandwagon. Sorry Tom you now have to hate him.
_____________________________
"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
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