David Levine
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Is 'positional value' changing?
As the Vikings prepare for free agency, they have to consider a trend of interior linemen growing in value
By Matthew Coller
If history has proven anything in the NFL, it’s that the truths about the league one year can be different by the next season.
If you went back 365 days and asked 100 analysts whether teams should invest big cap dollars and draft capital on the interior offensive linemen and running back positions, you likely would have gotten at least 90 “no” votes. Yet here we are with the No. 1 and No. 3 highest paid left guards in terms of guaranteed dollars playing in the Super Bowl along with the highest paid center and second highest paid running back. Not to mention that the Philadelphia Eagles spent a 2021 second-round pick and 2022 second-round pick on interior O-line and the Chiefs spent a 2021 second-rounder on a center (and hit a home run on a fifth-round guard too).
We can’t always use the teams that reach the Super Bowl to prove points. If this were the Commanders and Bills, maybe the examples wouldn’t be quite as strong as the Chiefs and Eagles but the construction of the offensive lines and Philly’s investment in Saquon Barkley has to make us wonder if the analytically-driven way of thinking during the last decade about positional value needs to be reevaluated.
If you look across NFL salaries, it’s not hard to see which positions the league drive success. Quarterback, wide receiver, tackle, edge rusher. The highest total guarantee figure for QB is $231 million, receiver $110 million, tackle $88 million and edge rusher $122 million. Compare that to running back ($26 million), guard ($63 million), linebacker ($60 million) and safety ($45 million) and you can see that the gap is enormous between the have and have-not positions.
But last year in free agency we started to see some evidence of teams putting more value into the guard position. The Panthers signed Robert Hunt to a contract worth $20 million per year, Washington paid Sam Cosmi $18 million and the Rams went all-in with big deals for Kevin Doctson ($16 million) and Jonah Jackson ($17 million).
Teams may have begun to notice that the counterparts for these offensive guards were getting nastier by the day. Defensive tackles’ dollars have shot up within the last few season, peaking with KC’s Chris Jones getting $95 million guaranteed and the Raiders going all-in on Christian Wilkins at $85 million last offseason. Not to mention that mad scientists like KC defensive coordinator Steve Spagnolo and the Vikings’ Brian Flores are sending freakish blitzes that confuse even the best QBs and O-lines. The only counter is to have more talent up front.
What does this mean for the Vikings this offseason?
When it comes to the guard position, there appears to be a high chance that the top players are going to reach new heights in terms of per-year and guaranteed dollars. In particular, Chiefs pending free agent Trey Smith has a chance to become the highest paid interior lineman in the league if he hits the market. Players like Chicago’s Teven Jenkins and San Francisco’s Aaron Banks could go for much higher prices than we would have expected even two years ago.
When we look at the recent performances from guards around the league, the pay increase for top free agents appears justified. In 2017, there were 34 guards who received PFF grades higher than 70 and 47 guards who allowed fewer than 30 pressures. In 2024, only 21 guards topped 70 grades and 37 who gave up 30 pressures or less.
To put it in perspective: Vikings guard Alex Boone had a PFF grade of 73.5 in 2016, which ranked 36th and many considered him an unsuccessful signing. In 2024, 73.5 would have cracked the top 15 in pass pro and his 16 pressures allowed would have ranked in the top five.
The best of the best are still putting up great numbers, like Quinn Meinerz of Denver who had an 80.3 grade and only gave up 12 pressures but it appears the average guard is now getting pummeled whereas even a few years ago being middle-of-the-pack was more than sufficient.
Since the Vikings gave Boone a big contract, they have been using patchwork efforts at guard or draft picks. They selected Ezra Cleveland and Ed Ingram in the second round and both were out before the end of their rookie contracts. Fourth-rounder Dru Samia barely got through a few games. The patchwork attempts have usually meant either signing a lifelong backup like Tom Compton or Dakota Dozier or moving a tackle to guard, from Mike Remmers to Oli Udoh to Blake Brandel.
Those routes haven’t just failed the Vikings, they are failing for everyone. If we look at the top 15 guards by PFF pass blocking grade this year, 12 of them were either highly paid free agents or drafted in the first two rounds. Just outside the top 15 was Carolina’s Damien Lewis and Detroit’s Kevin Zeitler, two more that fall into that category and Trey Smith, the expected top FA this year.
The numbers don’t lie here: While there are still development stories on the interior of offensive lines around the league, those getting an edge are paying for it with capital. Unfortunately for the Vikings, they were barking up the right tree by taking several of them high in the past few years, but having those picks fail put them behind the eight ball in terms of solidifying the position.
That means that spending big inside is the only route to being better than average. Considering Kevin O’Connell’s offense requires downfield passing and the Vikings desperately need to improve their run game, the guard value only increases.
But does that mean they need to spend $25 million on a guard? Maybe not. If we look at the top offensive lines in the NFL by pass protection, something to notice is that they do not have extremely weak links. The Eagles worst starting guard in terms of pressures allowed gave up 27 and graded a 63.6. The Vikings, in comparison, had three linemen with a lower grade than that and Ed Ingram gave up 24 pressures in just 332 pass pro snaps. Some of those numbers are based on the QB and the time spent in the pocket but Eagles QB Jalen Hurts held onto the ball longer than any QB in the NFL.
The Vikings could aim to alleviate their weak links instead of trying to put $25 million into one player. That would mean getting two new guards who have a recent sample of quality pass protection i.e. Arizona’s Evan Brown (14th in pass pro grade) and Chicago’s Matt Pryor (5th).
The question about free agent guards is whether every quality player at the position is going to demand big money or if there will be deals to be had as the top guards end up getting enormous contracts. It would seem that it might be tough to get any under-the-radar players these days. Prior to free agency, there are 19 guards that are making more than $10 million per year that number appears likely to grow. But the Vikings are so deeply in need of improvement that they will have to get out the checkbook.
What about the running back position? Is the success of Barkley and Derrick Henry going to bump up the price for this year’s crop?...
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