RE: NFL Draft 2020

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kgdabom -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 12:12:04 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: kgdabom quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro No Viking olineman has even made a pro bowl appearance in the last 7 seasons. I think O'Neal was deserving last season but nonetheless that's pretty telling when you consider the number of players that back out of it. O'Neill has not been giving up sacks, but for whatever reason got the same PFF grade as Reiff. I don't think he's as good as many of us think he is. Saying "whatever reason" keep in mind you are talking about PFF doing the grading. Because you never know "whatever" reasoning PFF uses with their rankings. We've seen some really strange grading coming out of that camp. I take their rankings with a grain of salt, but I do consider them.

kgdabom -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 12:13:50 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: beo quote: ORIGINAL: kgdabom quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro No Viking olineman has even made a pro bowl appearance in the last 7 seasons. I think O'Neal was deserving last season but nonetheless that's pretty telling when you consider the number of players that back out of it. O'Neill has not been giving up sacks, but for whatever reason got the same PFF grade as Reiff. I don't think he's as good as many of us think he is. Umm... that's what we like about him... Give me some more guys who "aren't that good" but "don't give up sacks". Not giving up sacks is a good thing. I think he gives up more pressures than one would expect and maybe he doesn't do well in the running game.

unome -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 12:17:21 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen quote: ORIGINAL: unome quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro quote: ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson I've heard it said that guard is the easiest position to replace. I'm not so sure for our team. It may actually be a little harder than others to fill, but I still do believe that it is way down on the list of most impactful positions. Nevertheless, football is a team game and so each position carries value. One player at any position can mess it up for the rest of the team. Weak G draft. You had to grab them early if you wanted one. So major reach for need. And then when that does not work out, call for the head of those that made the major reach that they were calling for. Who has called for his head? The comment I made was about what happens to people that start reaching for need. But there have been a bunch of posters that have called for Spielman and/or Zimmer's head, so while I am not sure whose "his head" refers to, the answer is yes either way.

Ricky J -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 12:24:38 PM)
Whew, that was fun! Thanks everyone ...

Dana Turner -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 12:33:29 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Ricky J Whew, that was fun! Thanks everyone ... Imagine my surprise, good to see you drop in!

thebigo -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 12:56:34 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: kgdabom quote: ORIGINAL: beo quote: ORIGINAL: kgdabom quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro No Viking olineman has even made a pro bowl appearance in the last 7 seasons. I think O'Neal was deserving last season but nonetheless that's pretty telling when you consider the number of players that back out of it. O'Neill has not been giving up sacks, but for whatever reason got the same PFF grade as Reiff. I don't think he's as good as many of us think he is. Umm... that's what we like about him... Give me some more guys who "aren't that good" but "don't give up sacks". Not giving up sacks is a good thing. I think he gives up more pressures than one would expect and maybe he doesn't do well in the running game. Is that based on 'anything'?

thebigo -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 1:02:03 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes quote: ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer Reason the Vikings like Cleveland: 7. EZRA CLEVELAND, BOISE STATE Draft Board Rank: 57th Cleveland was one of the biggest draft risers with his performance at the Combine, and for good reason. The track record for guys with his sort of movement skills is very good. He posted the best three-cone (7.26) and best short-shuttle (4.46) of any offensive lineman in attendance to go along with a 4.93-second 40. Only two tackles drafted in the first round over the past 15 years have bested both Cleveland’s cone and shuttle: Joe Staley and Anthony Castonzo. The athleticism would be one thing if it didn’t translate to a football field, but Cleveland has earned pass-protection grades in the 80s for three straight seasons. The fact that he was losing at all against some of the competition he faced is concerning, though, and he doesn’t play nearly as strong as his 30 bench reps would suggest. One thing I do like about Cleveland ... as mentioned above, he is putting time in the weightroom: the 30 lifts were 5th best at the combine – he's not just going through the motions [in the weightroom]. Yeah, I've never been that impressed with those guys in the weight room just going through the motions. I mean c'mon, at least lift a bar without any weights on it, this lifting air thing is just silly!

kgdabom -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 1:03:54 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: kgdabom quote: ORIGINAL: beo quote: ORIGINAL: kgdabom quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro No Viking olineman has even made a pro bowl appearance in the last 7 seasons. I think O'Neal was deserving last season but nonetheless that's pretty telling when you consider the number of players that back out of it. O'Neill has not been giving up sacks, but for whatever reason got the same PFF grade as Reiff. I don't think he's as good as many of us think he is. Umm... that's what we like about him... Give me some more guys who "aren't that good" but "don't give up sacks". Not giving up sacks is a good thing. I think he gives up more pressures than one would expect and maybe he doesn't do well in the running game. Is that based on 'anything'? I'm not watching him on every play. I pay far more attention to the QB RBs, WRs. PFF is watching him on every play and came up with the average score of 71 despite the ridiculously low sacks given up. So I was guessing it was because he gave up pressures and they considered him mediocre in run blocking.

kgdabom -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 1:05:09 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: Tom Sykes quote: ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer Reason the Vikings like Cleveland: 7. EZRA CLEVELAND, BOISE STATE Draft Board Rank: 57th Cleveland was one of the biggest draft risers with his performance at the Combine, and for good reason. The track record for guys with his sort of movement skills is very good. He posted the best three-cone (7.26) and best short-shuttle (4.46) of any offensive lineman in attendance to go along with a 4.93-second 40. Only two tackles drafted in the first round over the past 15 years have bested both Cleveland’s cone and shuttle: Joe Staley and Anthony Castonzo. The athleticism would be one thing if it didn’t translate to a football field, but Cleveland has earned pass-protection grades in the 80s for three straight seasons. The fact that he was losing at all against some of the competition he faced is concerning, though, and he doesn’t play nearly as strong as his 30 bench reps would suggest. One thing I do like about Cleveland ... as mentioned above, he is putting time in the weightroom: the 30 lifts were 5th best at the combine – he's not just going through the motions [in the weightroom]. Yeah, I've never been that impressed with those guys in the weight room just going through the motions. I mean c'mon, at least lift a bar without any weights on it, this lifting air thing is just silly! Bigo you really do take snarkiness to extremes.

kgdabom -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 1:06:16 PM)
Video breakdown of Kyle Hinton. It's against DII linemen, but his dominance is almost ridiculous. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uyseRcDqX0

kgdabom -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 1:21:27 PM)
SKOR North is expecting Cleveland to play guard this year. So for all those who wanted us to draft a guard early we did. If they got it right. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFm7g9WRrYY

The Happy Norseman -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 1:26:55 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Pager Stolen from another site: Study done by the University of Missouri: Didn't know the proper time to bring this to the board but a few years back there was a very intensive study done on postional Wins Against Replacement Value in the NFL over a 3 year period Obviously the QB is the highest WAR value but second is you guessed it Interior Line.....what nope you are Wrong! QB -5.19 WR -4.75 TE/FB -4.27 OT -3.58 Interior OL -.24 RB +.14 This study shows basically zero value in IOL so all you clamoring for IOL over WR in this past draft you may want to think again. WAR measures a player's value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he's worth than a replacement-level player at his same position. Props to U of Mizzou for their efforts, but determining a player's value to his team using WAR makes a lot more sense in baseball than it does in football. Football is based far more around having a cohesive unit that works together as a team versus baseball. The Missouri study would indicate that whether you have a great IOL versus a mediocre one is negligible. Maybe. But what if you have 2 bad IOL and a bad center? Would people expect that team to fare as well as one that had very good players at those same positions? No. My point is, that there must be better metrics out there to determine the relative value of player positions in the NFL.

unome -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 1:46:27 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: The Happy Norseman quote: ORIGINAL: Pager Stolen from another site: Study done by the University of Missouri: Didn't know the proper time to bring this to the board but a few years back there was a very intensive study done on postional Wins Against Replacement Value in the NFL over a 3 year period Obviously the QB is the highest WAR value but second is you guessed it Interior Line.....what nope you are Wrong! QB -5.19 WR -4.75 TE/FB -4.27 OT -3.58 Interior OL -.24 RB +.14 This study shows basically zero value in IOL so all you clamoring for IOL over WR in this past draft you may want to think again. WAR measures a player's value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he's worth than a replacement-level player at his same position. Props to U of Mizzou for their efforts, but determining a player's value to his team using WAR makes a lot more sense in baseball than it does in football. Football is based far more around having a cohesive unit that works together as a team versus baseball. The Missouri study would indicate that whether you have a great IOL versus a mediocre one is negligible. Maybe. But what if you have 2 bad IOL and a bad center? Would people expect that team to fare as well as one that had very good players at those same positions? No. My point is, that there must be better metrics out there to determine the relative value of player positions in the NFL. Excellent point, but I think there is still an overall relative value to positions that can be seen in this analysis. We can see the relative value of Running Backs and IOL in both the salaries and in the draft, although you would never know it from reading Vikings fan sites. The only really surprising thing in the numbers was that Tight Ends were so important, although I suppose they are more often fulfilling a WR function and when they do block, they are more like Tackles in that they can seal an edge.

Ricky J -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 2:21:30 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Dana Turner quote: ORIGINAL: Ricky J Whew, that was fun! Thanks everyone ... Imagine my surprise, good to see you drop in! Thank you, Dana! I read the thread after the fact but it was still fun ... and informative.

TJSweens -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 2:31:22 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: unome quote: ORIGINAL: The Happy Norseman quote: ORIGINAL: Pager Stolen from another site: Study done by the University of Missouri: Didn't know the proper time to bring this to the board but a few years back there was a very intensive study done on postional Wins Against Replacement Value in the NFL over a 3 year period Obviously the QB is the highest WAR value but second is you guessed it Interior Line.....what nope you are Wrong! QB -5.19 WR -4.75 TE/FB -4.27 OT -3.58 Interior OL -.24 RB +.14 This study shows basically zero value in IOL so all you clamoring for IOL over WR in this past draft you may want to think again. WAR measures a player's value in all facets of the game by deciphering how many more wins he's worth than a replacement-level player at his same position. Props to U of Mizzou for their efforts, but determining a player's value to his team using WAR makes a lot more sense in baseball than it does in football. Football is based far more around having a cohesive unit that works together as a team versus baseball. The Missouri study would indicate that whether you have a great IOL versus a mediocre one is negligible. Maybe. But what if you have 2 bad IOL and a bad center? Would people expect that team to fare as well as one that had very good players at those same positions? No. My point is, that there must be better metrics out there to determine the relative value of player positions in the NFL. Excellent point, but I think there is still an overall relative value to positions that can be seen in this analysis. We can see the relative value of Running Backs and IOL in both the salaries and in the draft, although you would never know it from reading Vikings fan sites. The only really surprising thing in the numbers was that Tight Ends were so important, although I suppose they are more often fulfilling a WR function and when they do block, they are more like Tackles in that they can seal an edge. WAR doesn't make a lot of sense in either sport. It amounts to deriving a context free value based on crunching context loaded numbers. It is valid in the sense that players with good stats will have a good WAR. As far as being an accurate method of ranking individual individual players or ranking the importance of one position vs another, not so much.

Bruce Johnson -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 2:48:45 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: beo quote: ORIGINAL: kgdabom quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro No Viking olineman has even made a pro bowl appearance in the last 7 seasons. I think O'Neal was deserving last season but nonetheless that's pretty telling when you consider the number of players that back out of it. O'Neill has not been giving up sacks, but for whatever reason got the same PFF grade as Reiff. I don't think he's as good as many of us think he is. Umm... that's what we like about him... Give me some more guys who "aren't that good" but "don't give up sacks". What are some of the other components to the grade? Penalties, run blocking grade, pressures given up? I went to their website to learn more. I found this: A tackle whose quarterback gets the ball out of his hands quicker than anybody else may not give up many sacks, but he can still be beaten often and earn a poor grade. And this: Beasley sacked the quarterback 16 times, but eight of those sixteen were either unblocked or clean-up sacks that owed more to somebody else flushing the quarterback towards where Beasley was than they did to him beating a blocker to make the play. PFF grading takes into account the quality of the play made to get the sack, and excellent plays to defeat blocks will be graded higher than sacks where the quarterback just happened to be flushed past a player as he was being blocked only to get taken down. So there actually may have been plays where O"Neil's man flushed Cousins out of the pocket and Reiffs man got the sack. And one more: Pressure that does not result in a sack is important too, as just pressuring the quarterback sees an average drop in passer rating of 32.0 points from 94.4 to 61.8 over the past 10 years. That’s the equivalent of turning Ben Roethlisberger into Blaine Gabbert just by hurrying him in the pocket. So I know that PFF grades are rather controversial. They are subjective (like a judge giving a grade to a diver) and certainly human error must happen. Still, when I review how they come up with the grades I agree that there is more to just the number of sacks. Here's the article I was referencing: https://www.pff.com/grades

bohumm -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 3:06:39 PM)
If I were obligated to deeply evaluate players, PFF would be one tool among others that I would use, in context and balance as appropriate. By itself, PFF evaluation is not a good source for casual observers like us because it is deep and highly specific, and we don't have enough other information (scouts, game film/all-22, etc) to balance this unwieldy, overweighted perspective.

Bruce Johnson -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 3:07:31 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: kgdabom Video breakdown of Kyle Hinton. It's against DII linemen, but his dominance is almost ridiculous. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uyseRcDqX0 Do you think his best NFL position is guard or tackle. The guy is a football bully. With a limited off-season, I would not bet on him being a starter this year, but next year? Maybe.

kgdabom -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 3:07:45 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson quote: ORIGINAL: beo quote: ORIGINAL: kgdabom quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro No Viking olineman has even made a pro bowl appearance in the last 7 seasons. I think O'Neal was deserving last season but nonetheless that's pretty telling when you consider the number of players that back out of it. O'Neill has not been giving up sacks, but for whatever reason got the same PFF grade as Reiff. I don't think he's as good as many of us think he is. Umm... that's what we like about him... Give me some more guys who "aren't that good" but "don't give up sacks". What are some of the other components to the grade? Penalties, run blocking grade, pressures given up? I went to their website to learn more. I found this: A tackle whose quarterback gets the ball out of his hands quicker than anybody else may not give up many sacks, but he can still be beaten often and earn a poor grade. And this: Beasley sacked the quarterback 16 times, but eight of those sixteen were either unblocked or clean-up sacks that owed more to somebody else flushing the quarterback towards where Beasley was than they did to him beating a blocker to make the play. PFF grading takes into account the quality of the play made to get the sack, and excellent plays to defeat blocks will be graded higher than sacks where the quarterback just happened to be flushed past a player as he was being blocked only to get taken down. So there actually may have been plays where O"Neil's man flushed Cousins out of the pocket and Reiffs man got the sack. And one more: Pressure that does not result in a sack is important too, as just pressuring the quarterback sees an average drop in passer rating of 32.0 points from 94.4 to 61.8 over the past 10 years. That’s the equivalent of turning Ben Roethlisberger into Blaine Gabbert just by hurrying him in the pocket. So I know that PFF grades are rather controversial. They are subjective (like a judge giving a grade to a diver) and certainly human error must happen. Still, when I review how they come up with the grades I agree that there is more to just the number of sacks. Here's the article I was referencing: https://www.pff.com/grades Good work Bruce. On the other hand good players make their own luck.

Bruce Johnson -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 3:09:53 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: kgdabom SKOR North is expecting Cleveland to play guard this year. So for all those who wanted us to draft a guard early we did. If they got it right. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFm7g9WRrYY I'm not on board for him playing at guard. I would rather see Reiff play at guard than Cleveland. Will he be ready this season to start? Good question. My guess is that he won't start game one, but before the season ends he will. It's just a guess. Who knows!

Bruce Johnson -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 3:14:05 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: bohumm If I were obligated to deeply evaluate players, PFF would be one tool among others that I would use, in context and balance as appropriate. By itself, PFF evaluation is not a good source for casual observers like us because it is deep and highly specific, and we don't have enough other information (scouts, game film/all-22, etc) to balance this unwieldy, overweighted perspective. Good point. They don't know the play call, or what his assignment given to him by the coaches was for that play. That could lead to misunderstanding in the grading, but actually I believe it would lead more to us not understanding than PFF.

Ricky J -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 3:33:05 PM)
Bruce, will you post that bar graph again that showed each teams value of all the picks, please?

kgdabom -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 3:34:57 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson quote: ORIGINAL: kgdabom Video breakdown of Kyle Hinton. It's against DII linemen, but his dominance is almost ridiculous. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uyseRcDqX0 Do you think his best NFL position is guard or tackle. The guy is a football bully. With a limited off-season, I would not bet on him being a starter this year, but next year? Maybe. Definitely not expecting him to start this year. He needs to experience what it's like playing against higher level players in practice for at least a year before he's ready. He's being projected as a guard in the NFL.

kgdabom -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 3:39:18 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bruce Johnson quote: ORIGINAL: kgdabom SKOR North is expecting Cleveland to play guard this year. So for all those who wanted us to draft a guard early we did. If they got it right. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFm7g9WRrYY I'm not on board for him playing at guard. I would rather see Reiff play at guard than Cleveland. Will he be ready this season to start? Good question. My guess is that he won't start game one, but before the season ends he will. It's just a guess. Who knows! His traits and skills project well at guard. However the down side is if LT is his eventual position, and I think it is, then he loses a year of tackle development. Looking at the big picture it is probably best to only have him play tackle and probably to start him this year to take his lumps and learn. However, playing him at guard could be the best move for this season.

unome -> RE: NFL Draft 2020 (4/29/2020 3:44:13 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens WAR doesn't make a lot of sense in either sport. It amounts to deriving a context free value based on crunching context loaded numbers. It is valid in the sense that players with good stats will have a good WAR. As far as being an accurate method of ranking individual individual players or ranking the importance of one position vs another, not so much. It was a pretty interesting study, although far from a conclusive report that should reconfigure your viewpoint on everything we know about football. It was fascinating to see how much, or how little, difference playing a backup had in some positions and not others. The more interesting part of the analysis was how small the difference was on defense. This is all really important in a capped league because generally you should not put in big salary cap dollars on Running Back, IOL, cornerbacks (defense starts at the corners?) and Safety by these numbers and spending your money or draft capital on offense, especially QB, WR, TE and Tackles seems to make the most improvement. Some of it was obvious, like starting QBs are super valuable, but the relative lack of importance of any one player on defense being out was very interesting, especially in how little negative impact having a starting Cornerback out was.

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