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David Levine -> RE: General Vikes Talk (7/31/2020 4:46:45 PM)
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Ranking the NFL's top 25 prospects: Young players who could break out in 2020
Every year, Football Outsiders puts together a list of the NFL's best and brightest young players who have barely played. The overwhelming majority of draft-day discussion is about first-round picks, with a bit of discussion about guys who weren't first-rounders but should have been, particularly if they were quarterbacks.
This list is about the others.
1. Ifeadi Odenigbo, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings
Age: 26 | Draft: Pick 220 in 2017 | Career snaps: 375
With the Vikings parting with Everson Griffen, it's a pretty clean projection to assume that Odenigbo will be moving into the starting lineup. But in case you need a reassuring word from Vikings defensive line coach/co-coordinator Andre Patterson, he told Vikings reporters in a conference call: "I'm excited about Ifeadi to continue to improve as a player. He made great strides last year, and he's a tremendously hard worker. I know he's busting his tail right now. ... As a matter of fact, I have to talk to him about not overtraining."
Odenigbo's roots at Northwestern were as a power player with NFL pass-rush moves and flashes, but he was essentially platooned by the Wildcats. He led the Big Ten in sacks as a senior anyway, with 10, and ran a 4.72-second 40-yard dash at the combine. His performance in our SackSEER projection system was 62.7%, impressive for a low-round pick; Odenigbo had an explosion index of 0.61 and offered a lot of college production.
Over the last five games of last season, Odenigbo notched four of his seven sacks, forced a fumble and returned another fumble for a 56-yard touchdown. He brought down both Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers last season. He might still platoon with a different defender on pure run downs if that section of his game gets off to a poor start, but Odenigbo is on pace to become yet another late-round win on the edge for a Vikings team that already starts 2015 third-rounder Danielle Hunter.
9. Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings
Age: 22 | Draft: Pick 102 in 2019 | Career snaps: 197
Simply put: With Dalvin Cook holding out and on the verge of free agency, there are very few players with a better potential future situation than Mattison. Gary Kubiak's running backs have been putting up 1,000-yard seasons whether they are good or not since before Football Outsiders even existed. The Vikings picked Mattison in the third round despite a number of pundits not having that high of a grade on him, which suggests they hold him in quite high esteem.
Mattison, like Cook, had a pretty mediocre combine that ended with a faceplant on the 40-yard dash, with a time of just 4.67 seconds at 221 pounds. That's linebacker speed at defensive back size. But Mattison showed just about everything else you could want from a runner: physicality, quickness, vision and intelligence. It all led to massive production at Boise State, as Mattison even saw the field for all 13 games as a freshman.
In his first season in Minnesota, Mattison finished with a respectable 24 DYAR in 100 totes, despite a relatively low success rate of 38%. Mattison averaged 4.6 yards per attempt, with no real negative split when running zone plays, but SIS charting charged the Vikings with 11 blown blocks during those 100 attempts, and those 11 carries averaged minus-1.2 yards. With enough skill to be a competent receiver as well, the Vikings have the ultimate leverage against a Cook holdout: someone who can do the job just as well without a high price tag.
Methodology
This is the 14th anniversary of the list. We're still relying on the same things we always do: scouting, statistics, measurables, context, ceiling, expected role and what we hear from other sources. The goal is to bring your attention to players who are still developing in their second and third seasons, even after the draftniks have forgotten them. It's important to note that this list is not strictly about fantasy football (otherwise, there wouldn't be offensive linemen on it), and it's about career potential, not just the 2020 season.
Here's our full criteria:
Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as an undrafted free agent.
Entered the NFL between 2017 and 2019.
Fewer than 500 career offensive or defensive snaps (except running backs, who are allowed just 300 offensive snaps).
Have not signed a contract extension (players who have bounced around the league looking for the right spot, however, still qualify for the list).
Age 26 or younger in 2020.
You'll see a number of references to Football Outsiders stats on our list, in particular DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), which takes every play and compares its success to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. You can read more about DVOA and other FO stats on this page. Many of the other stats, including quarterback hurries and blown blocks, come from Sports Info Solutions and can be found in our new book, Football Outsiders Almanac 2020.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/29526841/ranking-nfl-top-25-prospects-young-players-break-2020
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