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unome -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (12/30/2020 10:20:01 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: unome
Hope everyone is well.
Been busier than heck myself, but I wanted to stop by and tell people to stay safe now especially because the pandemic is almost over.
If the country hits the 100 million immunization goal by February, the COVID numbers will drop like a rock.
With all the base immunity in the population, plus added immunity for 30% of the population getting vaccines, will blow us past the beginning stages of herd immunity (North Dakota looks like it already made it there on it's own) and community spread will become less and less of a problem.
This crap is almost over!
Happy Holidays!!
It looks like the vaccine rollout is slower than hoped for, but it always takes some time to rollout totally new supply chains from scratch, so that was to be expected. I expect it to keep ramping up over the next month and then start really delivering the vaccine numbers.
The COVID numbers are dreadful right now and they will be awful in January. We may start seeing some change in the numbers in February, but those numbers will still be high, especially in deaths because all these high December and January infection rates will still be feeding the death rate.
But I am still really hopeful for major changes in the numbers from March to May where I think there will be massive improvement.
Why so positive when everyone else is so glum?
I am so excited about the vaccine because it is not hard to tell who to immunize if you want to save lives. Roughly 40% of the COVID deaths are from LTC residents. This population is less than 1% of the overall population.
So you should see huge death rate decreases as this population is fully immunized. And this should be done by mid-January.
BTW, LTC residents should have been first to get vaccines, but they did medical workers first, which is frankly pretty lame. Medical workers are often heroes and deserve to be high on the priority list, but they are not dying in droves like LTC residents are, and they have medical grade masks. But I digress.
With the group accounting for 40% of deaths being vaccinated by mid-January, you should see death rates start dropping by March and keep dropping as the elderly get vaccinated.
Overall COVID cases will start coming down as well, but not at the same rate as the death rate, which is interesting because normally the case rate falls first.
The COVID case rate should just keep going down and should look really good by May if the vaccine distribution is good by the end of February. And the numbers will just keep dropping as every state reaches the first stage of herd immunity hopefully in February and we could reach what is generally considered to be true herd immunity at the 130-150 million vaccination level.
Hopefully, at that point, COVID numbers will be so much lower as to be more manageable and contract tracing will be much more viable.
So, it is darkest before the dawn. January will completely suck and February will not be all that great either. But, the spring is coming. I think we will all like the spring.
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