RE: Covid 19 and those infected

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David F. -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (1/1/2021 10:23:03 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson quote: ORIGINAL: Brad H quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: ronhextall The next stimulus should only be given to those that get vaccine. That incentive will push a few more to get it and every person that gets it helps. So were months away from having enough vaccines for everyone. The youngest generally will be the last to get it, yet young adults are probably most affected by the shutdowns financially. The vaccine is designed to help people live, not to help earn a paycheck. In the real world, you need a paycheck to live. Not necessarily.

Mark Anderson -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (1/1/2021 10:25:15 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: David F. quote: ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson quote: ORIGINAL: Brad H quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: ronhextall The next stimulus should only be given to those that get vaccine. That incentive will push a few more to get it and every person that gets it helps. So were months away from having enough vaccines for everyone. The youngest generally will be the last to get it, yet young adults are probably most affected by the shutdowns financially. The vaccine is designed to help people live, not to help earn a paycheck. In the real world, you need a paycheck to live. Not necessarily. It helps. Homeless life span lower than people with a roof over their head.

David F. -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (1/1/2021 11:35:45 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson quote: ORIGINAL: David F. quote: ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson quote: ORIGINAL: Brad H quote: ORIGINAL: thebigo quote: ORIGINAL: ronhextall The next stimulus should only be given to those that get vaccine. That incentive will push a few more to get it and every person that gets it helps. So were months away from having enough vaccines for everyone. The youngest generally will be the last to get it, yet young adults are probably most affected by the shutdowns financially. The vaccine is designed to help people live, not to help earn a paycheck. In the real world, you need a paycheck to live. Not necessarily. It helps. Homeless life span lower than people with a roof over their head. Typically the homeless have problems like untreated mental illness and/or drug/alcohol addictions among countless other things aligned against them that make earning a paycheck unmanageable. I know I'm not going to hire them anyway.

unome -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (1/1/2021 5:24:36 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lynn G. quote: ORIGINAL: unome quote: ORIGINAL: ronhextall The next stimulus should only be given to those that get vaccine. That incentive will push a few more to get it and every person that gets it helps. Why? Until we have more vaccines than willing recipients, just vaccinate the willing. We are still a few months away, if we are lucky, from vaccinating all the people that really need the vaccine because they have conditions or age that makes them more vulnerable or jobs that require public interaction. I have no problem getting the vaccine, but I probably won't. Why? Because once you vaccinate everyone older than me (50 and up), people with health conditions, people that work in the public (I would much rather have a 24 year old teacher get the vaccine before me) and people that are younger than me, but scared silly about the virus (like my poor, sweet sister-in-law), there should be enough herd immunity to make getting the vaccine fairly useless at that point. If they start looking around for people to get the vaccine because everyone else that wanted it got it, and there is still COVID cases in any significant level in population, I will get the vaccine, but I will wait until then. I do not plan on going down with the ship, but I do want to make sure everyone that wants a seat on the lifeboat has one first. Waiting could, in this case, be a fatal decision. I'd say it's up to you, but honestly, your delay in getting the vaccination could end up killing OTHER people as you spread the virus around. I don't think you understood my point. My 'delay' would never kill other people because I am saying that someone else should get the vaccine first. The net effect would be just as much population protection or probably more if the person that gets the vaccine instead of me works in the public. If everyone had a vaccination waiting for them and all they had to do was show up, I would go, but that is not how it works. And your first part that it could be a fatal decision is true, but also why others should get it first. As I wrote, my sister-in-law and others are absolutely terrified and I have a somewhat utilitarian moral code that it would advance the greater good for the people psychologically damaged by fear to get the vaccine than I would as I do not have that fear. And not having fear does not mean I engage in risky activities either. I wear masks, socially distance, do not do unneeded activities. But there is a Chris Tomlin song that is called "For Whom Shall I Fear" and that is kind of how I live my life.

bstinger -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (1/1/2021 10:48:29 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro Shouldn't the people currently infected with the virus be vaccinated first? [sm=anim_wow.gif]

ronhextall -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (1/2/2021 7:26:31 AM)
Vaccinating the homeless is going to be a challenge. My only thought is vaccinate at the shelters for a period of time. Perhaps a cash payment to give them incentive. My only thought is this...once the vaccine is offered to everybody it’s time to open everything up. I don’t care if you get the vaccine or not. An “offer” in my mid is the same as getting it. I also think it’s fair if business and schools require the vaccine.

Bill Johanesen -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (1/2/2021 12:07:18 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: ronhextall Vaccinating the homeless is going to be a challenge. My only thought is vaccinate at the shelters for a period of time. Perhaps a cash payment to give them incentive. My only thought is this...once the vaccine is offered to everybody it’s time to open everything up. I don’t care if you get the vaccine or not. An “offer” in my mid is the same as getting it. I also think it’s fair if business and schools require the vaccine. Cash payment? Agreed on opening things up once there is a period of no lines, no new takers, etc. But at the slow vaccination rate to date, the vaccine will probably wear off on those vaccinated early - and unfortunately nobody knows when that is - before everyone has had a chance to get vaccinated. Beyond various lists, or levels of government with NO lists, there is no plan and no resources. With all the ineptitude, my guess is by about Feb the vaccine will be opened up to everyone on a first come, first served basis regardless of age, disorders, type of job, etc. And there will be massive, slow-moving lines. Look at the fiascos and long lines of cars that ensue when a traffic light goes out at a major intersection. In the case of vaccinations, there will not be a policeman arriving on scene to direct traffic and speed things up.

Daniel Lee Young -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (1/2/2021 12:15:29 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: bstinger quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro Shouldn't the people currently infected with the virus be vaccinated first? [sm=anim_wow.gif] Hey, now... Lots of good people on both sides, here.. Snowflakes have to land somewhere, and when they dump en-mass.. you get a blizzard and a newsworthy ignoring of global warming..

Daniel Lee Young -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (1/2/2021 12:17:59 PM)
Ffs you could set up a vaccine station at all fast food joints, gas stations and Walmart’s, problem of distribution solved... That would easily reach 70% of the ”herd”. Moooooooove it along....

Bill Johanesen -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (1/2/2021 12:29:17 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Daniel Lee Young quote: ORIGINAL: bstinger quote: ORIGINAL: Bill Jandro Shouldn't the people currently infected with the virus be vaccinated first? [sm=anim_wow.gif] Hey, now... Lots of good people on both sides, here.. Snowflakes have to land somewhere, and when they dump en-mass.. you get a blizzard and a newsworthy ignoring of global warming.. In Jandro's defense, he repeatedly makes the same good points about Spielman neglecting the OL.

Steve Lentz -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (1/4/2021 4:08:20 PM)
NFL didn't miss a game this year. That is impressive.

Trekgeekscott -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (1/4/2021 4:12:57 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Steve Lentz NFL didn't miss a game this year. That is impressive. One was delayed almost a week. And the team that caused it ... didn't get punished like the Broncos did when they had to start a practice squad WR at QB one week. Seriously?

unome -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (2/8/2021 9:58:14 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: unome quote: ORIGINAL: unome Hope everyone is well. Been busier than heck myself, but I wanted to stop by and tell people to stay safe now especially because the pandemic is almost over. If the country hits the 100 million immunization goal by February, the COVID numbers will drop like a rock. With all the base immunity in the population, plus added immunity for 30% of the population getting vaccines, will blow us past the beginning stages of herd immunity (North Dakota looks like it already made it there on it's own) and community spread will become less and less of a problem. This crap is almost over! Happy Holidays!! It looks like the vaccine rollout is slower than hoped for, but it always takes some time to rollout totally new supply chains from scratch, so that was to be expected. I expect it to keep ramping up over the next month and then start really delivering the vaccine numbers. The COVID numbers are dreadful right now and they will be awful in January. We may start seeing some change in the numbers in February, but those numbers will still be high, especially in deaths because all these high December and January infection rates will still be feeding the death rate. But I am still really hopeful for major changes in the numbers from March to May where I think there will be massive improvement. Why so positive when everyone else is so glum? I am so excited about the vaccine because it is not hard to tell who to immunize if you want to save lives. Roughly 40% of the COVID deaths are from LTC residents. This population is less than 1% of the overall population. So you should see huge death rate decreases as this population is fully immunized. And this should be done by mid-January. BTW, LTC residents should have been first to get vaccines, but they did medical workers first, which is frankly pretty lame. Medical workers are often heroes and deserve to be high on the priority list, but they are not dying in droves like LTC residents are, and they have medical grade masks. But I digress. With the group accounting for 40% of deaths being vaccinated by mid-January, you should see death rates start dropping by March and keep dropping as the elderly get vaccinated. Overall COVID cases will start coming down as well, but not at the same rate as the death rate, which is interesting because normally the case rate falls first. The COVID case rate should just keep going down and should look really good by May if the vaccine distribution is good by the end of February. And the numbers will just keep dropping as every state reaches the first stage of herd immunity hopefully in February and we could reach what is generally considered to be true herd immunity at the 130-150 million vaccination level. Hopefully, at that point, COVID numbers will be so much lower as to be more manageable and contract tracing will be much more viable. So, it is darkest before the dawn. January will completely suck and February will not be all that great either. But, the spring is coming. I think we will all like the spring. I think I came pretty close to nailing it. You could not find anyone writing anything positive about the pandemic in late December. People like Bill Gates said we were in for a really bad next four to six months in December. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/12/13/gates-says-next-4-6-months-could-be-worst-of-pandemic-as-vaccine-shipments-roll-out/?sh=30b90d9c44c3 We actually seemed to start hitting the start of herd immunity in mid-January in many states so my rosy prognostication was not even rosy enough. I said death rates would start dropping big in March, but they will start dropping in February instead and the drop will just keep going. January completely sucked, but things are already much better in every state. And, like I said: I think we will all like the spring.

unome -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (2/8/2021 10:35:49 PM)
That's funny. My positive post about how the pandemic is in beginning stages of winding down got a one star rating from someone! Must be someone that just purchased a container load of masks for sale to the public. From the same link as above, Fauci said: "For that reason, health officials say the virus is not likely to be under control in the U.S. until the “back half of 2021”—as Dr. Anthony Fauci recently said—when most of the population, around 75%, is vaccinated, generating an “umbrella of herd immunity.” It will happen sooner, although it does depend on how we define the terms 'under control'. Things will just keep getting better and better no matter how many 1 star votes I get!

Brad H -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (2/9/2021 6:40:17 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: unome That's funny. My positive post about how the pandemic is in beginning stages of winding down got a one star rating from someone! Must be someone that just purchased a container load of masks for sale to the public. From the same link as above, Fauci said: "For that reason, health officials say the virus is not likely to be under control in the U.S. until the “back half of 2021”—as Dr. Anthony Fauci recently said—when most of the population, around 75%, is vaccinated, generating an “umbrella of herd immunity.” It will happen sooner, although it does depend on how we define the terms 'under control'. Things will just keep getting better and better no matter how many 1 star votes I get! I also said the pandemic would start getting better in January. January 20th, to be specific.

Phil Riewer -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (2/9/2021 8:17:42 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: unome quote: ORIGINAL: unome quote: ORIGINAL: unome Hope everyone is well. Been busier than heck myself, but I wanted to stop by and tell people to stay safe now especially because the pandemic is almost over. If the country hits the 100 million immunization goal by February, the COVID numbers will drop like a rock. With all the base immunity in the population, plus added immunity for 30% of the population getting vaccines, will blow us past the beginning stages of herd immunity (North Dakota looks like it already made it there on it's own) and community spread will become less and less of a problem. This crap is almost over! Happy Holidays!! It looks like the vaccine rollout is slower than hoped for, but it always takes some time to rollout totally new supply chains from scratch, so that was to be expected. I expect it to keep ramping up over the next month and then start really delivering the vaccine numbers. The COVID numbers are dreadful right now and they will be awful in January. We may start seeing some change in the numbers in February, but those numbers will still be high, especially in deaths because all these high December and January infection rates will still be feeding the death rate. But I am still really hopeful for major changes in the numbers from March to May where I think there will be massive improvement. Why so positive when everyone else is so glum? I am so excited about the vaccine because it is not hard to tell who to immunize if you want to save lives. Roughly 40% of the COVID deaths are from LTC residents. This population is less than 1% of the overall population. So you should see huge death rate decreases as this population is fully immunized. And this should be done by mid-January. BTW, LTC residents should have been first to get vaccines, but they did medical workers first, which is frankly pretty lame. Medical workers are often heroes and deserve to be high on the priority list, but they are not dying in droves like LTC residents are, and they have medical grade masks. But I digress. With the group accounting for 40% of deaths being vaccinated by mid-January, you should see death rates start dropping by March and keep dropping as the elderly get vaccinated. Overall COVID cases will start coming down as well, but not at the same rate as the death rate, which is interesting because normally the case rate falls first. The COVID case rate should just keep going down and should look really good by May if the vaccine distribution is good by the end of February. And the numbers will just keep dropping as every state reaches the first stage of herd immunity hopefully in February and we could reach what is generally considered to be true herd immunity at the 130-150 million vaccination level. Hopefully, at that point, COVID numbers will be so much lower as to be more manageable and contract tracing will be much more viable. So, it is darkest before the dawn. January will completely suck and February will not be all that great either. But, the spring is coming. I think we will all like the spring. I think I came pretty close to nailing it. You could not find anyone writing anything positive about the pandemic in late December. People like Bill Gates said we were in for a really bad next four to six months in December. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/12/13/gates-says-next-4-6-months-could-be-worst-of-pandemic-as-vaccine-shipments-roll-out/?sh=30b90d9c44c3 We actually seemed to start hitting the start of herd immunity in mid-January in many states so my rosy prognostication was not even rosy enough. I said death rates would start dropping big in March, but they will start dropping in February instead and the drop will just keep going. January completely sucked, but things are already much better in every state. And, like I said: I think we will all like the spring. Good Post Unome....good work.

Phil Riewer -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (2/9/2021 8:21:51 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: unome That's funny. My positive post about how the pandemic is in beginning stages of winding down got a one star rating from someone! Must be someone that just purchased a container load of masks for sale to the public. From the same link as above, Fauci said: "For that reason, health officials say the virus is not likely to be under control in the U.S. until the “back half of 2021”—as Dr. Anthony Fauci recently said—when most of the population, around 75%, is vaccinated, generating an “umbrella of herd immunity.” It will happen sooner, although it does depend on how we define the terms 'under control'. Things will just keep getting better and better no matter how many 1 star votes I get! Someone is jealous....LOL

David F. -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (2/9/2021 10:31:32 AM)
I think unome is Lars. Similar posting styles in the way of structure. Sticks mainly to glittering generalities and frequently quotes own posts. Ex. But I am still really hopeful for major changes in the numbers from March to May where I think there will be massive improvement. If the country hits the 100 million immunization goal by February, the COVID numbers will drop like a rock. Well yeah. No shit.

TJSweens -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (2/9/2021 11:31:51 AM)
That's an exceedingly optimistic forecast on spread. The fact that the infection rate has declined from the January peak of + 300,000 a day does not point to heard immunity. The rate is still 3 to 4 times higher than when pandemic had its first peak in April and twice as high as the summer peak in June. On top of that new variants are springing up, one of which reduces the effectiveness of AstraZeneca vaccine. Recovering from Covid-19 has not been proven to effectively provide immunity. Heard immunity won't occur until upwards of 70% of the population is vaccinated. There is a real race going on to enough get people vaccinated before a strain resistant to current vaccines develops.

unome -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (2/9/2021 11:33:03 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Brad H quote: ORIGINAL: unome That's funny. My positive post about how the pandemic is in beginning stages of winding down got a one star rating from someone! Must be someone that just purchased a container load of masks for sale to the public. From the same link as above, Fauci said: "For that reason, health officials say the virus is not likely to be under control in the U.S. until the “back half of 2021”—as Dr. Anthony Fauci recently said—when most of the population, around 75%, is vaccinated, generating an “umbrella of herd immunity.” It will happen sooner, although it does depend on how we define the terms 'under control'. Things will just keep getting better and better no matter how many 1 star votes I get! I also said the pandemic would start getting better in January. January 20th, to be specific. Funny. Partisanship has nothing to do with it. Trump or Biden are pretty much irrelevant at this point. It is the vaccine that will finish things off and neither had much of anything to do with that. Biden has not doing anything wrong at all, but the vaccine rollout is just progressing pretty much the same as it would have otherwise despite a lot of political action and some extra money thrown at things. I know it will be all about Biden:good and Trump:bad though for you and others because that is the lens you see things. But COVID numbers will keep dropping and it is a result of the vaccine and states starting to hit what I call the first stage of herd immunity, This is not the same as total herd immunity.

unome -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (2/9/2021 11:35:15 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer Good Post Unome....good work. Thanks. I did not realize that I would be in for the level of attack for a positive post, but what can you do? Once people have closed minds, how will they every open them?

TJSweens -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (2/9/2021 11:41:29 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: unome quote: ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer Good Post Unome....good work. Thanks. I did not realize that I would be in for the level of attack for a positive post, but what can you do? Once people have closed minds, how will they every open them? That people are skeptical of your Pollyanna forecast, does not mean minds are closed. It just means people are skeptical based on science.

Phil Riewer -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (2/9/2021 11:45:07 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: unome quote: ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer Good Post Unome....good work. Thanks. I did not realize that I would be in for the level of attack for a positive post, but what can you do? Once people have closed minds, how will they every open them? No big deal...it wasn't like it was unexpected. New administration has already lied about XL Pipeline and Fracking.

unome -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (2/9/2021 11:52:33 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens That's an exceedingly optimistic forecast on spread. The fact that the infection rate has declined from the January peak of + 300,000 a day does not point to heard immunity. The rate is still 3 to 4 times higher than when pandemic had its first peak in April and twice as high as the summer peak in June. On top of that new variants are springing up, one of which reduces the effectiveness of AstraZeneca vaccine. Recovering from Covid-19 has not been proven to effectively provide immunity. Heard immunity won't occur until upwards of 70% of the population is vaccinated. There is a real race going on to enough get people vaccinated before a strain resistant to current vaccines develops. The numbers in April were very low because testing was not nearly as widespread and people were afraid to get tested. The numbers in June being as high as it was was surprising because there was a thought that the virus may be more latent in the summer and it was, but not to the degree it was hoped. We actually got lucky on the timing of the outbreak because if the numbers had gotten bad in September and October instead of March and April, we would have been in real trouble. Having COVID does not make you immune, but it has been shown to offer a protection that is similar to vaccines in that it seems to protect you from the worst effects of the disease and makes you less likely to spread the disease. Vaccines do not totally protect people either so in that sense, no one will ever be 100% protected. Total herd immunity may not occur until 70%, although that number is certainly not know, Could be 60% Or 75%. This is when the numbers should trickle to next to nothing. That would be the end stage of herd immunity. Yes, that is not where we are. When I talk about the first stages of herd immunity, it is the point where the overall immunity base in population acts as a brake that keeps slowing the infection rates. We have hit this rate in a number of states now and in parts of every state. The virus needs to keep spreading to stay around and when the virus cannot find a new host, it just cannot spread and the numbers keeping shrinking and shrinking. There is a concern, which I have expressed, that a new strain can be different and could cloud the rosy picture. It is likely that this strain would not be fully resistant to a vaccine or past immunity, but would certainly pose potential problems. You can continue to be dour on this. I am fine with that. The numbers will keep looking better and better regardless.

unome -> RE: Covid 19 and those infected (2/9/2021 12:00:14 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: TJSweens That people are skeptical of your Pollyanna forecast, does not mean minds are closed. It just means people are skeptical based on science. Oh yes, all the many scientists that we have posting here. And all the advanced scientific arguments used to refute things I write. To quote that great scientist, Dan Young on the politics section: "Sunshine, lollipops.rainbows, unicorns.. Every cow is getting heeeeerd immunity..!!!" My work cannot stand up to such rigorous peer evaluation! Or we have Brad claiming that it will be Biden and his magic wand. Yes, that was also quite the work of science. Everything I write is only based on math and science. I tried using Dan's rainbows and unicorns, but it was hard to run numbers based on either of those. The numbers will keep telling the story.

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