Bill Johanesen -> RE: General Vikes Talk (9/25/2023 4:12:21 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson quote:
ORIGINAL: Bill Johanesen quote:
ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson quote:
ORIGINAL: David F. quote:
ORIGINAL: Mark Anderson quote:
ORIGINAL: David F. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzfLYsjgK7M OK. Let's look at pressure on our QB objectively. That link is to the condensed game. It takes 47 minutes to watch. I just went through every offensive play and used a timer to gauge if we allowed a pressure on a play. I used three seconds. If the ball is out or no defender is about to make contact at three seconds I determined it to be a play free of pressure. I came up with 58 pass plays. Some were negated by penalties. I didn't have the time to sort those out. Here are the resutls: Out of 58 pass plays I determined that the Chargers got pressure clearly on six plays. There are also two plays where Cousins is sacked or hit at exactly three seconds so let's count those also. That makes eight plays out of 58 or 14% of drop backs. Kirk successfully navigated the pressure three of the plays including throwing a TD pass on one of them. His sacks came at 3, 5, 6, and 5 seconds so like I said I counted the 3 second one as a pressure. I saved my notes on this so if anyone else wants to go through the plays like I did and disagree with my results I'm willing to take a look. 14% pressure rate and half the fan base talks about "running for his life from the onset of the snap on every play". It's good analysis except we don't know if anybody is open after just 3 seconds. Or 4 seconds. Best coach on the field yesterday was Chargers OC. Quick hitters against back 7 that only had 5 back there because of all the blitzes. I've been on board with getting a mobile QB for 2 years now. But, our OLine is not excellent and finally had a decent game against the 32nd rated defense. If, after everything we've invested into our pass catchers, no one is open... check that... CONSISTENTLY no one is open then disband the franchise. We have Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, and Jordan Addison for crying out loud. Obviously Cousins is not going to see some guys when they are open. And that is on him. But, your analysis leads us to believe that we have open guys every play, beating double teams, waving their arms while Kirk panics into a sack. It's good analysis except we don't know if anybody is open after just 3 seconds. That's hyperbolic at best. Players by default are open simply based on normal QB completion rates in the 60th percentile and above, plus the plays where they were open but not seen or whatever. But, your analysis leads us to believe that we have open guys every play, beating double teams, waving their arms while Kirk panics into a sack. That might have been your takeaway from the analysis, but I don't think 'us' is appropriate. It's on the opposite extreme of the first statement. No team has receivers open all the time. I think the analysis is pretty reflective of the norm (if anything, our good receivers maybe slant things) vs either of your extremes. I hear what you are saying. But, my main point from the beginning is 4 man rushes (in general) are able to pressure Cousins because our IOL is weak. One decent game against the 32nd ranked defense doesn't change that. Herbert basically had his pick of single coverage on every non disguised blitz. Cousins dealt with 7 guys in back end. He made some throws and missed some throws and had a major blunder at end. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Yeah, I was thinking about their D as well and posted on it. Good point about the 4 man rushes which you probably posted separately. If a team can get to the QB with just four, they likely have a very good D or are playing a crap OL lol. More analysis!
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