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DavidAOlson -> RE: Timberwolves 2023 - 2024 Season (5/29/2024 6:02:08 AM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Karl Juhnke
I find it amazing that no NBA team has ever come back from down 3-0. I get that it should be exceedingly rare, but not once?
So what are The Wolves chances? I say extremely slim but not zero. The reason it hasn’t happened is, of course in order to get down 3-0 the better team has won. So the odds of a worse team winning 4 straight is minuscule.
If ever a team could do it though, it would be a series like this. Dallas is not a clearly better team. They are roughly equal say. They have just won 3 coin flips in a row.
So do I expect the Wolves to make history? No. Bit the chance is not zero, as history might suggest. They’d have to now win 4 coin flips in a row. The chance of doing that is 1/16.
FWIW
155 previous series that went to 3-0
95 ended in 4, 95/155 = 61%.
45 ended in 5, 45/60 = 75%
11 ended in 6, 11/15 = 73%
4 ended in 7. 4/4 = 100%.
By the time it gets to 3-3, I'd think the last game should be a flip. And game 6 should be close to a flip. But no. It's game 4 where the team that's down seems to over perform.
Anyway, the team up 3-0 is about a 75% favorite (no other info). But I think your coin flip estimate isn't far off.
And if Ant is finally recovering from that game 6 hard fall (David Levine, post 733), maybe it's even better. Still a long shot, obviously.
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