RE: 2024 Draft (Full Version)

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marty -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/23/2024 7:45:03 PM)

It was 6.9.



David Levine -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/23/2024 8:00:35 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

Just for a point of reference, what was Tom Brady's ADOT while in college ?


It’s about as valuable as asking someone who just won the lottery for advice on how to make money.



David Levine -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/23/2024 8:01:52 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabomb
The ADOT thing is him running his coaches offense to perfection.

It's Nix making one read and dumping. The system allowed him to do that. He didn't do as well when he played in a system that required him to do more. You can't dump 67% of your throws in the NFL.


I can’t remember the last guy who put up crazy numbers in a “gimmick” offense that translated to the NFL.



marty -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/23/2024 9:14:53 PM)

My point is, why bother making a point about ADOT with regards to a prospect, then comparing that number to other prospects, ignoring the fact that the GOAT may have had the exact same number (for ADOT) while he was in college.



TJSweens -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/23/2024 9:51:01 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

My point is, why bother making a point about ADOT with regards to a prospect, then comparing that number to other prospects, ignoring the fact that the GOAT may have had the exact same number (for ADOT) while he was in college.

Unless you have actual evidence that the GOAT had the same ADOT as Nix, you have no point.



David Levine -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/23/2024 9:59:08 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

My point is, why bother making a point about ADOT with regards to a prospect, then comparing that number to other prospects, ignoring the fact that the GOAT may have had the exact same number (for ADOT) while he was in college.


It was a very different game when Brady was in college. That’s why we’re comparing contemporaries.

Plus Brady wasn’t even a great college QB, so why would his college career be the standard for comparison?



kgdabom -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/23/2024 11:21:13 PM)

A higher ADOT might be meaningful if a higher ADOT led to better overall numbers, but it didn't. Nix had the best numbers. Daniels may have come close. People grasping at straws to try to discredit him.



kgdabom -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/23/2024 11:34:20 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

My point is, why bother making a point about ADOT with regards to a prospect, then comparing that number to other prospects, ignoring the fact that the GOAT may have had the exact same number (for ADOT) while he was in college.


It was a very different game when Brady was in college. That’s why we’re comparing contemporaries.

Plus Brady wasn’t even a great college QB, so why would his college career be the standard for comparison?

Let's Compare Nix to his contemporaries. 4500 yards, 45 TD passes, 3 ints .
Maye 3608 yards, 24 tds, 9 ints,
Williams 3633 yards, 30 TD, 5 ints
Daniels 3812 yards, 40 TDs, 4 ints
McCarthy 2991 yards, 22 TDs, 4 Ints
Penix 4903 yards, 36 TDs, 11 Ints

There's your comparison. They all beat him in ADOT, but in the usual QB stats people looks for Penix had more yards, but Nix crushed the competition otherwise.



ratoppenheimer -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 3:53:35 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

My point is, why bother making a point about ADOT with regards to a prospect, then comparing that number to other prospects, ignoring the fact that the GOAT may have had the exact same number (for ADOT) while he was in college.


It was a very different game when Brady was in college. That’s why we’re comparing contemporaries.

Plus Brady wasn’t even a great college QB, so why would his college career be the standard for comparison?

Let's Compare Nix to his contemporaries. 4500 yards, 45 TD passes, 3 ints .
Maye 3608 yards, 24 tds, 9 ints,
Williams 3633 yards, 30 TD, 5 ints
Daniels 3812 yards, 40 TDs, 4 ints
McCarthy 2991 yards, 22 TDs, 4 Ints
Penix 4903 yards, 36 TDs, 11 Ints

There's your comparison. They all beat him in ADOT, but in the usual QB stats people looks for Penix had more yards, but Nix crushed the competition otherwise.



whoever drafts Nix should also hire Oregon's offensive coordinator and run the Oregon offensive system - no way O'Connell does that....



marty -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 6:28:38 AM)

Unless you have actual evidence that the GOAT had the same ADOT as Nix, you have no point.

TJ, If it were in the ball park, I would have a GREAT point.

As it is, I have a good point, and that is comparing the ADOT is not a very strong point for you, because even if they're contemporaries, they're in completely different systems.

The point is, Nix's accuracy still makes him a strong prospect.



marty -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 6:34:03 AM)

.... Brady wasn’t even a great college QB, so why would his college career be the standard for comparison?

It would be a good standard for comparison, if it showed the importance of accuracy.

So your point is Brady was not a great college QB, so anything future prospects do in college is meaningless, if you're hoping one of them is similar to the GOAT ?



Phil Riewer -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 6:52:48 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

.... Brady wasn’t even a great college QB, so why would his college career be the standard for comparison?

It would be a good standard for comparison, if it showed the importance of accuracy.

So your point is Brady was not a great college QB, so anything future prospects do in college is meaningless, if you're hoping one of them is similar to the GOAT ?

The problem is that Nix is a Mariota type QB. Still not a bad qb but if you are giving up and want a SB or Mahomes type qb he isn’t it. Those top four are the guys apparently. Darnold is better than Nix.



TJSweens -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 8:21:39 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: ratoppenheimer

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

My point is, why bother making a point about ADOT with regards to a prospect, then comparing that number to other prospects, ignoring the fact that the GOAT may have had the exact same number (for ADOT) while he was in college.


It was a very different game when Brady was in college. That’s why we’re comparing contemporaries.

Plus Brady wasn’t even a great college QB, so why would his college career be the standard for comparison?

Let's Compare Nix to his contemporaries. 4500 yards, 45 TD passes, 3 ints .
Maye 3608 yards, 24 tds, 9 ints,
Williams 3633 yards, 30 TD, 5 ints
Daniels 3812 yards, 40 TDs, 4 ints
McCarthy 2991 yards, 22 TDs, 4 Ints
Penix 4903 yards, 36 TDs, 11 Ints

There's your comparison. They all beat him in ADOT, but in the usual QB stats people looks for Penix had more yards, but Nix crushed the competition otherwise.

whoever drafts Nix should also hire Oregon's offensive coordinator and run the Oregon offensive system - no way O'Connell does that....

The problem with that is that the Oregon system wouldn't work in the NFL. The defenses in the NFL would love to play against a scheme where the QB doesn't go through progressions and dumps the ball 2/3 of the time. YAC is a lot harder to come by in the NFL. Nix played in an offense at Auburn that required him to do the things his peers do and he struggled with it. He went to Oregon where they dumbed it down for him and he had success.



TJSweens -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 8:36:00 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

.... Brady wasn’t even a great college QB, so why would his college career be the standard for comparison?

It would be a good standard for comparison, if it showed the importance of accuracy.

So your point is Brady was not a great college QB, so anything future prospects do in college is meaningless, if you're hoping one of them is similar to the GOAT ?

1. YOU DON'T KNOW BRADY WAS ANYTHING LIKE NIX IN COLLEGE. QUIT ASSUMING THAT HE WAS.
2. Brady is a singular event in NFL history. A non descript college QB, taken in the 6th round who went on to become the GOAT. It's absolutely pointless to compare him to any college QB that has some since.



Brad H -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 9:00:01 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabomb
The ADOT thing is him running his coaches offense to perfection.

It's Nix making one read and dumping. The system allowed him to do that. He didn't do as well when he played in a system that required him to do more. You can't dump 67% of your throws in the NFL.


I can’t remember the last guy who put up crazy numbers in a “gimmick” offense that translated to the NFL.

But see, this is where you are wrong. It's not a gimmick offense any more. The Ducks passed the ball 54% of the time last season. The average in the NFL was around 55-56% in 2023.

https://fftoday.com/stats/23_run_pass_ratios.html

How was the Ducks' offense gimmicky?

Conversely, Michigan passed the ball 39% of the time. By any standards, that's a way more gimmicky offense than what Oregon was running. Only Baltimore (47.7%), Chicago (49%) and San Francisco (49.6%) passed the ball less than 50%. Six teams threw it more than 60% (Vikings, 61.6%).

This is what I've been saying. JJ McCarthy is not running a pro style offense. His teams have mostly played from in front and ran it down other teams' throats. He has rarely needed to run a two-minute offense when it mattered.

In the NFL, you have to be able to score in the final two minutes of halves.



David Levine -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 9:08:21 AM)

Run/pass ratio has nothing to do with it. It’s the type of passes, not the raw number of them.

It was one read with mostly dump offs, screens and RPOs. Nix didn’t have to go through progressions or even read defenses. He just had to execute the simple play call.

If he put up those numbers in anything resembling an NFL offense, he’d be the runaway #1 overall pick. Not the near consensus 6th QB.



Brad H -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 9:14:16 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Run/pass ratio has nothing to do with it. It’s the type of passes, not the raw number of them.

It was one read with mostly dump offs, screens and RPOs. Nix didn’t have to go through progressions or even read defenses. He just had to execute the simple play call.

If he put up those numbers in anything resembling an NFL offense, he’d be the runaway #1 overall pick. Not the near consensus 6th QB.

So what you are saying is, he (Nix) can't run them (NFL plays) as well as a guy (McCarthy) that was in a running offense? Despite his 77.4% completion percentage with a 45-3 TD-to-INT ratio?

I'll take the guy throwing the ball, thank you very much. And no, this isn't a Colt Brennan or Timmy Chang thing. Leave that nonsense at the door. This is a guy playing in a power five conference in an offense that far more resembles a pro-style offense in the year 2024. Just like Justin Herbert played in. Remember that guy? How did it work out for him?



David Levine -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 9:25:12 AM)

Not sure why you’re convinced I’m a McCarthy guy.

All my points on Nix stand in their own.



marty -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 9:58:52 AM)

1. YOU DON'T KNOW BRADY WAS ANYTHING LIKE NIX IN COLLEGE. QUIT ASSUMING THAT HE WAS.

I am making the comparison based on Nix throwing with high accuracy.



marty -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 10:11:28 AM)

2. Brady is a singular event in NFL history. A non descript college QB, taken in the 6th round who went on to become the GOAT. It's absolutely pointless to compare him to any college QB that has some since.

If you're looking for a QB, you might wonder what QBs your prospect compares to, you're hoping for the best, so it is wise to make comparisons of their qualities with the best. That is what experts, scouts, and some of us do.

It's foolish to say there will never be another, especially when right after Brady retires, you have Mahomes chasing his Super Bowl records, and is off to a good start.

So it is wise to look at what qualities make Brady and Mahomes, and try to project if you can get a similar looking prospect.



Tom Sykes -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 10:20:19 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

2. Brady is a singular event in NFL history. A non descript college QB, taken in the 6th round who went on to become the GOAT. It's absolutely pointless to compare him to any college QB that has some since.

If you're looking for a QB, you might wonder what QBs your prospect compares to, you're hoping for the best, so it is wise to make comparisons of their qualities with the best. That is what experts, scouts, and some of us do.

It's foolish to say there will never be another, especially when right after Brady retires, you have Mahomes chasing his Super Bowl records, and is off to a good start.

So it is wise to look at what qualities make Brady and Mahomes, and try to project if you can get a similar looking prospect.

A fool thinks himself to be wise but a wise man knows himself to be a fool. ~Shakespeare



kgdabom -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 10:39:04 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: ratoppenheimer

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

My point is, why bother making a point about ADOT with regards to a prospect, then comparing that number to other prospects, ignoring the fact that the GOAT may have had the exact same number (for ADOT) while he was in college.


It was a very different game when Brady was in college. That’s why we’re comparing contemporaries.

Plus Brady wasn’t even a great college QB, so why would his college career be the standard for comparison?

Let's Compare Nix to his contemporaries. 4500 yards, 45 TD passes, 3 ints .
Maye 3608 yards, 24 tds, 9 ints,
Williams 3633 yards, 30 TD, 5 ints
Daniels 3812 yards, 40 TDs, 4 ints
McCarthy 2991 yards, 22 TDs, 4 Ints
Penix 4903 yards, 36 TDs, 11 Ints

There's your comparison. They all beat him in ADOT, but in the usual QB stats people looks for Penix had more yards, but Nix crushed the competition otherwise.



whoever drafts Nix should also hire Oregon's offensive coordinator and run the Oregon offensive system - no way O'Connell does that....

What makes you think that a super accurate athletic QB who can pull plays out of his ass when things break down won't be able to run about any and every offensive system placed in front of him?



kgdabom -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 10:43:26 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: David Levine

Not sure why you’re convinced I’m a McCarthy guy.

All my points on Nix stand in their own.

What exactly are your points on Nix. His college offense was a bit different than most NFL offenses? Does that mean he can't run more common NFL style offenses? I don't think so.



Todd M -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 10:56:33 AM)

I trust the general consensus that Nix is a bum but I worry Brad might be right on McCarthy.

Likely moot as we’re going to pry 2 from Washington or 3 if they won’t budge from the Pats if it goes Williams/Daniels.

I’d just as soon pay up and park ourselves at 2 right now.



Todd M -> RE: 2024 Draft (3/24/2024 10:58:04 AM)

I don’t think Washington will be able to walk away from 4 1sts.



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