RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (Full Version)

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marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 1:26:57 PM)

It's time for the Vikes to push that stat, regress to the mean, and WIN !

I think Brad will PROBABLY be right on all 4, I just think there is usually one game that surprises me and I went with the Jets.



drviking -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 1:34:47 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: John Childress

You are missing the point of that stat.

Teams with a 1st round PLAYOFF BYE are struggling lately

quote:

In the playoffs for the 1990-1999 seasons, teams that received the first-round bye went 24-15-1 against the spread, better than 60 percent. It didn't matter how high the oddsmakers made the spreads, those teams in the 1990s dominated off the week of rest. The wild-card round was seen as a formality where teams got their taste of the playoffs and then got knocked out the next week (bye teams were 33-7 straight up during that stretch, better than 80 percent).


Since then, however, those bye teams are 15-20-1 (43 percent). We have seen wild-card teams not only cover the spreads in those games but routinely start making it to the league championship games and even the Super Bowl. So, let's not be too surprised if we see at least two underdogs at least cover the spread this week or win the games outright - and don't call the games boring if they do so in dominating fashion.


http://www.statfox.com/statfoxnews/news~articleid~5917~h~NFL-Playoff-Bye-Week-no-longer-a-big-advantage.htm



when did the 'new' alignment and schedule making come into effect

i wonder if the new scheduling is allowing some teams to get byes that may not have in the past

for example if you happened to play the AFC west/NFC west, then you could rack up some wins, versus if you were playing AFC East/NFC East

i dunno if it makes any difference



Rob Jorgenson -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 1:35:35 PM)

I like:

AZ over the Saints - 33-27
Vikes over the Cowboys - 41-28

I just think we are the better team at home and will come out and show it. Look for us to jump on them early and never trail. The dome will be bursting at the seems with energy.



eduardo5046 -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 1:47:39 PM)

The two games I feel strongest about are :

Vikings over the Girls

Ravens over the Colts



I feel that the Jets will give SD all they can handle and wouldn't be surprised to see them win

Don't have any feel at all for the NO/Ariz game , don't even care we will cross that bridge when we come to it



Guest -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 2:34:35 PM)

My picks...

Saints 46
Cards 34

*Drew Brees just has way too much time to throw and the Saints D is rested enough to keep Warner from getting any closer than 12 points

Colts 27
Ravens 20

*The Ravens would need to have Flacco step up in this one to win it, but he is somewhat beatup physically and his lack of effort in the Pats game shows his weakness. The colts move on to the ACCG.


Vikings 38
Dallas 35

* The Vikings eek out a nail biter with Longwell winning it on a game winner with seconds left.

Chargers 31
Jets 23

*Jets keep it close in the first half, but RIVERS and the Chargers D is too much on the upstart Jets.



69in09 -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 2:48:18 PM)

Arz over NO- really a toss up game. I feel it could come down to which team's DB either catch or don't catch potential INT's
Indy over Balt. - Balt easily wins time of possession, but loses close game.  
Minn over dollass- All we heard about all week is the great cowbitch DL. Ours is better and in the dome. 
SD over NYJ- Revis can only cover one man. TE's and backs go wild. Filthy Sanchez turns the ball over. 



Jim Frenette -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 3:25:50 PM)

The only possible upset this weekend will be the Ravens ovder the Colts. I think taking the last couple of weeks off by the Colts will throw the timing off just to much

Saints, Vikings, Chargers, win easily



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 4:08:52 PM)

I think IF the Vikes get by Dallas, there is almost NO chance they win at New Orleans, if the Saints win today. The Cards need to win for the Vikes to have a chance at getting to the SB.

Do you remember how much trouble Favre as Packer had when playing at the loud Metrodome ? IF the Saints are one game away from the SB, their stadium will be AMAZINGLY loud, and I do NOT think Favre and the Vikes will be able to overcome it. The game probably won't even be close, unless Peterson goes wild.



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 4:18:39 PM)

Anybody just catch the hand to the face Warner took on 1st down, before getting sacked ? That followed up by a quick holding call. Is there ANY doubt as to the outcome of this game, who they would like to see win it ?

I think the Saints very likely win it without any 'sway' going on, and if it IS, there is NO chance the Cards win.



Lynn G. -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 4:27:58 PM)

They just did a bit of a make-up call with Warner, but that call has been inconsistent all season long. They need to better define what they're going to call there.



Brad H -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 5:22:21 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lynn G.

They just did a bit of a make-up call with Warner, but that call has been inconsistent all season long. They need to better define what they're going to call there.

The roughing the passer call against New Orleans was the exact same play as the Rodgers play at the end of the Green Bay/ Arizona game last week (when they didn't call it).  I agree, they need to be more consistent.



Lynn G. -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 5:25:43 PM)

I agree Brad. It was the same as the non-call last week.

When we first got Brett Favre, one of the things I thought was that "Yes, finally we're going to get some roughing the passer calls" because no one received the benefit of those as much as Favre.

But wearing purple, I don't think he's gotten more than one all season. Totally inconsistent.



eduardo5046 -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 5:29:20 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

I think IF the Vikes get by Dallas, there is almost NO chance they win at New Orleans, if the Saints win today. The Cards need to win for the Vikes to have a chance at getting to the SB.

Do you remember how much trouble Favre as Packer had when playing at the loud Metrodome ? IF the Saints are one game away from the SB, their stadium will be AMAZINGLY loud, and I do NOT think Favre and the Vikes will be able to overcome it. The game probably won't even be close, unless Peterson goes wild.




Teams generally look unbeatable when the opposition doesn't play defense , half their secondary and their starting QB go out injured by halftime  !



Guest -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 5:42:34 PM)

Well if we are fortunate enough to survive the dreaded Dallas Cowboys [&o], I'm sure we are going to be a heavy underdog next week as well, as the Saints are having there aerial circus against the Cards.  I love it!!! Still think we are more balanced then anyone left.



eduardo5046 -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 6:09:11 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: kurt bilben

Well if we are fortunate enough to survive the dreaded Dallas Cowboys [&o], I'm sure we are going to be a heavy underdog next week as well, as the Saints are having there aerial circus against the Cards.  I love it!!! Still think we are more balanced then anyone left.




Aerial circus ?

We must be watching a different game . NO ran it right down their throats in the 1st half when they took the big lead 120 yards rushing in 1/2 the game alone . And their biggest pass play was off a flea flicker faked into the line ! They aren't going to run like that on us !

If we are lucky enough to get there !!!

[&:]



Lynn G. -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 6:11:29 PM)

Of course we have reason to fear the Reggie Bush punt returns. He did it against us last year and did it again today.



Guest -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 6:12:11 PM)

Be quite honest with you Eduardo I watched the first three scores, and they passed at will against the Cards. If they have settled into running after that then I missed it. However it was pretty obvious AZ wasn't putting up much resistance.



eduardo5046 -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 6:40:49 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: kurt bilben

Be quite honest with you Eduardo I watched the first three scores, and they passed at will against the Cards. If they have settled into running after that then I missed it. However it was pretty obvious AZ wasn't putting up much resistance.




Kurt the first three drives by the Saints were 1st (5 pass , 5 run) , 2nd (2 pass , 2 run ) , 3rd ( 2 pass , 3 run ) the third capped off by a 46 yard TD run by Bush ! Now granted the Cards weren't stopping anything but todays performance by NO was nothing like I have seen them go to the air in the past . They didn't have to , they ran at will most of the game and passed short stuff to keep the Cards off balance . I don't think I have ever seen Brees take so few shots down the field in any game I have ever seen him play !



Brad H -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 6:46:33 PM)

Anybody still think Reggie Bush is just a marginal player?



Steve Lentz -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 6:49:06 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Anybody still think Reggie Bush is just a marginal player?


I would say a player with a lot of talent that is very inconsistent.



Brad H -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 6:57:49 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Steve Lentz

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Anybody still think Reggie Bush is just a marginal player?


I would say a player with a lot of talent that is very inconsistent.

I would say he does exactly what the Saints ask him to do. 



Richard Neussendorfer -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 7:00:41 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: Steve Lentz

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Anybody still think Reggie Bush is just a marginal player?


I would say a player with a lot of talent that is very inconsistent.

I would say he does exactly what the Saints ask him to do. 

I would say he's a great return man and a decent back. He's not special at the running back position by any means. He is a special returner.

One good day against a team that has given up 90 points in the last two games doesn't change anything to me. I agree Brad he is a good fit for NO.



Steve Lentz -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 7:09:01 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: Steve Lentz

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Anybody still think Reggie Bush is just a marginal player?


I would say a player with a lot of talent that is very inconsistent.

I would say he does exactly what the Saints ask him to do. 

As Kleinsasser does for the Vikings. [;)]



Guest -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 7:15:27 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: Steve Lentz

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Anybody still think Reggie Bush is just a marginal player?


I would say a player with a lot of talent that is very inconsistent.

I would say he does exactly what the Saints ask him to do. 



So did Eric Metcalf.

Great return guy, no question, but certainly not a special every down running back.



Brad H -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/16/2010 7:32:43 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: kurt bilben

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

quote:

ORIGINAL: Steve Lentz

quote:

ORIGINAL: Brad H

Anybody still think Reggie Bush is just a marginal player?


I would say a player with a lot of talent that is very inconsistent.

I would say he does exactly what the Saints ask him to do. 



So did Eric Metcalf.

Great return guy, no question, but certainly not a special every down running back.

Again, they have never asked him to be a special, every down back. 

Unlike college football, professional football is more of a team game.  When Bush came out of college, everyone expected him to take over games and dominate like he did on the collegiate level.  They have never asked him to take over games, because they have a balanced offense with a ton of weapons.  In short, he is a piece of the puzzle.  It doesn't mean, however, he isn't a great player.  It only means the fantasy football fans haven't gotten what they thought they were getting when he came out of USC. 

It's ironic you called him Eric Metcalf, because that was the guy I compared him to when he came out of SC. 



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