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SoMnFan -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (1/3/2013 11:17:32 AM)
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From Bill Barnwell, Grantland Writer
(don't kill the messenger)
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) at Green Bay Packers (11-5)
After Adrian Peterson's stunning performance led the Vikings to a 37-34 victory over the Packers on Sunday afternoon, the story lines surrounding this game have turned Saturday's playoff tilt into a matchup of Peterson versus the entire Packers team. "If the Packers can't stop Peterson," the logic goes, "they can't win." Well, the Packers certainly haven't been able to stop Peterson this season, but I don't think it's quite that clear-cut. It seems extremely likely that the Vikings would need a big game from Peterson to win; it just also seems entirely possible that the Vikings could get another heroic performance from their star running back and still lose.
All Day … Until the Postseason?
Although the league is no longer geared toward building an offense around one dynamic running back, the history of elite running backs and the teams that surround them has actually been relatively consistent across eras. There are 20 instances in NFL history of a back running for 1,800 yards in a season or more, a group that Peterson joined for the first time with his stunning, MVP-worthy 2,097-yard campaign this year. There's a built-in selection bias dictating that those players' respective teams do well during the regular season; no bad team is going to be able to hand the ball to a running back frequently enough to get him to 1,800 yards, because a below-average team will be throwing to catch up far too frequently. Indeed, each of those 20 teams had a record of .500 or better, and 15 of the 20 teams made the playoffs during their star's breakout year, just as Peterson's Vikings did this year. Were they able to sustain their success during the postseason?
Not really, no. Of the 14 non-Peterson playoff teams, nine were knocked out of the playoffs in their very first contest. Altogether, their teams were a collective 9-13 in the postseason, and only one of the 14 backs in question, Terrell Davis, won the Super Bowl during his starring campaign. He also had John Elway at quarterback, and Christian Ponder is no John Elway. Shaun Alexander and Jamal Anderson were on teams that went to the Super Bowl during their big seasons, and they had more pedestrian quarterbacks, but even Matt Hasselbeck and Chris Chandler were viewed as way ahead of where Ponder is at this point in his career.
The backs also saw a dip in their production during the playoffs. After averaging 5.3 yards per carry with 123.6 rushing yards per game during the regular season, the backs combined to run for 4.5 yards per attempt and just 90.7 yards per game. Those numbers are still respectable, of course, but the superior competition and likely improvement in opposing run defenses were enough to slow these elite backs down.
You might be inclined to argue that Peterson doesn't belong in a class with mere 1,800-yard backs like Anderson and Tiki Barber, and maybe you're right. But there's a cautionary tale for Vikings fans with the one back that everybody respects, and it happens to include the Green Bay Packers. In 1994, Barry Sanders kicked off a four-year stretch of ridiculous performances by running for 1,883 yards on 331 attempts, leading the league in both yards per carry (5.7) and rushing yards per game (117.7). Although he had a 47-yard game against the Packers during his first game against Green Bay that year, his second appearance against them saw him run for 188 yards on 20 carries. You would have expected Sanders to be at his mercurial best when the Lions traveled to Green Bay for the wild-card game … and Sanders ran for -1 yards on 13 carries.7 It was the worst performance of Sanders's legendary career, and it came after a four-game stretch in which he ran the ball 72 times for 477 yards. He wasn't quite as hot as Peterson's been over the final quarter of the season, but nobody expected Sanders to have a bad game, let alone one with negative yardage.
Let's bring it back closer to home. We've certainly seen Peterson lead the Vikings into the playoffs over the final quarter of the season, with a four-game winning streak from the Vikings coinciding with a 651-yard stretch from AD, but has Peterson noticeably played better in Minnesota's wins than in their losses? Actually, that doesn't really appear to be the case:
2012 Split
Atts
Yds
Yds/Carry
Rush Yds/Gm
Scrimmage Yds/Gm
Wins
244
1,335
5.5
133.5
142.7
Losses
104
762
7.3
127.0
147.8
Unsurprisingly, Peterson carries the ball more frequently when Minnesota's winning (and not forced to throw to catch up), but he's been more efficient in Minnesota's losses and actually been more productive in those six defeats when you toss in his work as a receiver. What those numbers suggest to me, admittedly in a small sample, is that Peterson can play brilliantly and the Vikings can still lose.
Can Peterson somehow manage to avoid playing brilliantly against the Packers? He's certainly owned them this year. Having run for 409 yards on 55 carries against Green Bay this year, Peterson became just the seventh back since 1960 to rush for more than 400 yards against one team in a single season.8 The only arguments weighing in Green Bay's favor seem to revolve around regression toward the mean; even the best running back in football history wouldn't be able to run for 200 yards per game against the Packers game after game, right? The Packers will hope that a returning Charles Woodson will help, with Woodson likely spotting in as a safety in and around the line of scrimmage. He certainly can't be worse than Tramon Williams, who sank Green Bay's chances with a terrible personal foul penalty that extended a stalled goal-to-go series while mixing in a couple of notable whiffs on possible tackles of Peterson.
In fact, the best argument surrounding Green Bay's defensive prowess is that they've been resting guys and slowly working them back into shape for a playoff run. With a playoff spot seemingly ensured for most of the second half, the Packers haven't rushed Woodson back into the lineup. The team also ramped up Clay Matthews's workload, playing him in 93 percent of snaps last week after he was on the field 51 percent of the time in Week 16. One downside of playing the Vikings, though, is that it doesn't allow the Packers to line up with their best 11 defenders on the field. That's their nickel package, and the threat of the Minnesota running game forces the Packers to stay in their base 3-4. That keeps promising rookie ballhawk Casey Hayward off the field and could limit Woodson's usage on Saturday.
Yeah, But …
Let's say Peterson gets his numbers — even if it's not a single-game rushing record, he puts up 25 carries, 140 yards, and a touchdown. You know what? Go crazy. Two touchdowns. What else can we really expect the Vikings to bring to the table beyond Peterson? Last Sunday, they weren't able to stop Aaron Rodgers. He threw for 365 yards and four touchdowns without top target Randall Cobb in the lineup, notably abusing Vikings nickel cornerback A.J. Jefferson for an entire drive without any recourse for Minnesota. Rodgers might not produce numbers quite that pristine again, but it's hard to see how the Vikings stop him without an otherworldly game from Jared Allen. The shoulder injury sapping the strength of Vikings end Brian Robison is a hidden killer, since it allows the Packers to focus further upon Allen while Robison plays through his injury at far less than 100 percent.
So if we assume that Peterson and Rodgers have productive days, it feels like the game falls on the shoulders of Christian Ponder. Ponder had just about the best game of his career on Sunday, and the Vikings were only able to win by three. Ponder went 16-of-28 for 234 yards with three scores and no picks, notably hitting Jarius Wright with a perfect 65-yard bomb up the seam. He continued his maddening habit of throwing scary floated lobs into the end zone, a play that worked when Michael Jenkins caught it for a touchdown. After converting 35.4 percent of his third downs (in 14-point games) through the first 15 games of the year, Ponder went 6-for-12 in picking up third downs last Sunday. That's only two more first downs than we would "expect" from the 35.4 percent clip, but those two extra conversions might have been enough to seal the game.
That Ponder performance was also notably at home, where he's been a much better player this year. Ponder's completed 63.7 percent of his passes while throwing in the domes of Minnesota this year, averaging seven yards per attempt while throwing nearly two touchdowns for every interception. Outside on the road, though, Ponder's a middling checkdown artist: He averages just 5.3 yards per attempt, his completion percentage falls to 60.7 percent, and he throws nearly one interception for each pick. He's not the same guy. And neither is Blair Walsh, who hasn't missed a kick at home this year (a perfect 16-for-16) while going 19-for-22 on the road.
So after all the Peterson hype gets washed away, I think Minnesota's chances really depend upon Ponder. If he can make it two consecutive big games in a row, hit a big play or two, and avoid turning over the ball, the Vikings have a shot at winning in Lambeau. I just don't think the odds of that happening are very high.
The Prediction
Green Bay 31, Minnesota 17
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