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djskillz -> RE: MLB General Information PT 4 (2/10/2015 2:32:29 PM)
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Law on the Shields deal. Interesting thought on a possible future trade for Hamels. Would be a really cool story to see him go back home to San Diego:
The San Diego Padres are now in a strange position, but one that gives them significant power to do something more to improve their roster before the season starts: They have too many starting pitchers.
Signing James Shields -- more on the contract itself in a moment -- gives them six pitchers who are capable of handling 150 or so innings in a major league rotation and three others who might contribute something less than that this year. That should be enough to get them 1,000 innings from their starters even if they choose to deal one of them.
Shields and Ian Kennedy are the best bets to take the ball 33 times and reach 200 innings. Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner have better upside on a per-inning basis, but neither is a good bet to stay healthy for a full season. Odrisamer Despaigne, signed for a song by the last front office in San Diego, is probably just a fifth starter in the long run, but he made 23 pro starts last year and doesn't seem to expend much effort that might concern you about his durability. Prospect Matt Wisler, who just missed my top 100 this winter, could be any team's fifth or sixth starter right away.
They also have lefty Robbie Erlin, who has had elbow issues for a few years but finished healthy in 2014; Brandon Morrow, whom I like more as a swingman or two-inning reliever but who was a full-time starter in 2010 and 2011; and Josh Johnson, due back around midyear and usually effective during his brief flirtations with full health. Maybe they will even get some use from Casey Kelly, whose return from Tommy John surgery hasn't been as smooth as they originally hoped.
That's a long way of saying that whatever the Padres think they still need, they at least have the starting pitching to make a run. That could mean packaging two of these guys -- one of the oft-injured starters plus Wisler -- in a deal to try to get Cole Hamels so they have a more reliable guy at the top of the rotation. Maybe they go after a legitimate shortstop or a better first-base option than Yonder Alonso. They could use another left-handed bat, and if Cameron Maybin is on the bench, which you have to assume he is after they acquired three starting outfielders, they don't have a true center fielder in their every-day lineup.
The Padres are an odd team, with enough aggregate talent to contend but one of the most peculiar roster constructions I have ever seen. Trading someone like Cashner or Ross before either suffers another catastrophic injury could make the team better while also converting high-risk assets into shorter-term value.
Shields signed right in the range I expected for him; Dan Szymborski broke down the contract with ZiPS projections that all seem right in line with my own expectations for Shields.
He's a line-drive/fly ball pitcher going to a park that helps those guys, and I think his preference for pitching up in the zone will work well in the 16 or so home starts he makes each year -- at least a little better than it would work elsewhere. He's worth anywhere from two to four wins over what he's replacing, depending on how much you want to bet on some of those fifth- and sixth-starter types staying healthy, but I think the bigger value he provides is creating a surplus that could let GM A.J. Preller make another deal now, in July or, given his propensity to shuffle his roster, any time in between. It's an opportunity to reduce their reliance on unreliable starters while perhaps filling one of the various areas of need mentioned above.
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