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SoMnFan -> RE: MLB General Information PT 4 (7/22/2013 10:56:54 AM)
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MLB's luckiest pitchers
Hurlers who are getting a disproportionate amount of help from their teammates
[image]http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2013/0521/fan_g_corbin_d1_576.jpg[/image]Denis Poroy/Getty ImagesPatrick Corbin is good, but he's probably not this good.
Patrick Corbin is enjoying a breakout season for the Arizona Diamondbacks. After posting a 6-8 record and 4.54 ERA in 107 innings last season, he is 11-1 with a 2.35 ERA, which is the third lowest in baseball among qualified starters, behind only Clayton Kershaw and Jeff Locke.
To some extent, Corbin's impressive line is a reflection of his own improved performance, but much of his success can be credited to great defense. In fact, based on plus/minus runs saved -- Baseball Info Solutions' estimation of runs saved or cost by fielder range -- Corbin has gotten more defensive support than any other pitcher in baseball.
While the D-backs employ some good fielders, there is some good fortune involved there that probably won't last. With that in mind, let's take a deeper look at Corbin and some of MLB's other "lucky" pitchers.
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Patrick Corbin, LHP | Arizona Diamondbacks
Plus/minus runs saved by all fielders: 24
Despite the dramatic improvement in his record and ERA, it is remarkable how similar Corbin's peripheral statistics are to that of last season. For example, he struck out 7.29 batters per nine innings last season and has slightly improved that number to 7.53 batters per nine innings this season. His 2.28 walks per nine innings this year are slightly worse than his 2.10 walks per nine innings last year. The most significant differences between Corbin's 2012 and 2013 statistics are in his BABIP, strand rate -- the percentage of baserunners a pitcher leaves on base -- and home runs per fly ball allowed.
His BABIP is down from .317 in 2012 to .246 this year, which is seventh lowest among qualified starters. His strand rate is up from 71.2 percent to 81.9 percent, well above the league average of 73.1 percent. His home run per fly ball rate is down from 13.5 percent to 7.8 percent.
And while good defense gets credit for some of this -- particularly the BABIP -- teammate Wade Miley has had 8 plus/minus runs saved behind him, which is the second most on the team. Chances are Corbin will not be so fortunate the rest of the way.
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Jeff Locke, LHP | Pittsburgh Pirates
Plus/minus runs saved by all fielders: 19
Based on his underlying numbers, Locke has had a bigger surprise season than even Corbin. Neither his 6.03 strikeouts per nine innings nor his 3.88 walks per nine innings impress, but his 2.15 ERA ranks second in baseball among qualified starters. Not surprisingly then, his .228 BABIP is also the second best, and the Pirates' defense has been a big reason why.
In particular, Locke has taken advantage of the Pirates' increased willingness to deploy defensive shifts. After shifting on only 105 balls in play in 2012 (ranking 16th among all major league teams), the Pirates already have 325 shifts on balls in play this season (ranking first).
Locke has a 52.3 percent ground ball rate, which ranks 12th among qualified starters. Interestingly, A.J. Burnett is fourth with a 54.9 percent ground ball rate and has 8 plus/minus runs saved behind him. Locke will regress, but as long as the Pirates stay committed to the shift, he and Burnett should both continue to benefit from the strategy.
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Jason Marquis, RHP | San Diego Padres
Plus/minus runs saved by all fielders: 17
While the other names on this list are turning good seasons into excellent ones, Marquis is turning a terrible season into a mediocre one.
At his best, Marquis is successful by limiting baserunners and inducing weak contact. However, after consecutive years with fewer than three walks per nine innings, that number has ballooned to more than five this year. His good defensive fortune is reflected in his 4.05 ERA, which is nearly two runs better than his 5.66 FIP, which is the worst in baseball among qualified starters.
The Padres are in last place and likely not in the playoff mix. With Marquis being 34 years old and on a one-year contract, they should look to trade Marquis quickly. Since the Padres are a middle-of-the-pack defense in the NL, his defensive help to date seems least likely to continue.
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Mike Leake and Bronson Arroyo, RHPs | Cincinnati Reds
Plus/minus runs saved by all fielders: 17 (Leake), 14 (Arroyo)
Reds pitchers have been mainstays on this list in recent seasons. From 2011 to 2012, Johnny Cueto benefited from 25 plus/minus runs saved, the third-highest total in baseball. This year, Leake and Arroyo are both in the top five at the halfway point.
Whether by coincidence or due to a concerted effort by their coaching staff, Reds pitchers have been among the best at helping themselves. Since 2011, Leake, Cueto and Arroyo are three of the 11 pitchers in baseball with 10 or more DRS.
The fact that Leake and Arroyo are so good at helping their own cause on defense isn't quite so "lucky," and is a big reason they could set career bests in ERA.
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