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SoMnFan -> RE: MLB General Information PT 4 (6/20/2014 9:53:29 AM)
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Olneys Insider stuff this week
The volume of calls and text messages between general managers is growing as teams look to improve through trades, through adding help from outside of the organization.
But as has been noted many times since Major League Baseball expanded its playoff field from eight to 10, the extra wild-card team reduces the field of potential sellers, because more teams have hope and reason to wait to break up their teams.
There is another factor depressing the trade market as well, according to some executives who have taken the pulse of rival evaluators: parity.
The Oakland Athletics have been a great team this season, with the best record in the majors at 44-28 and a run differential of plus-132. The Giants own the second-best run differential -- 85 runs less, at plus-47. Twenty-six of the 30 teams have run differentials ranging between the Giants' plus-47 and the minus-40 of the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros.
Oh, sure, you could go out and make an aggressive trade and pay what are perceived to be extremely high asking prices for the Cubs' Jeff Samardzija or Jason Hammel, and inevitably, teams will do that. But given the relative mediocrity of the teams in 2014, some executives privately ask the question: Is the addition of a player really going to make that much of a difference, given how deeply flawed most teams are?
General managers will weigh the cost/benefit equation of adding someone such as Samardzija or David Price, and for now, some are saying that it might make more business sense to wait to see if their current teams can play better, or if internal adjustments would be more effective.
The Kansas City Royals are a great example of this.
Three weeks ago, there was speculation that manager Ned Yost and/or GM Dayton Moore might be in jeopardy of being fired. Now, the Royals have zoomed into first place with essentially the same cast of players because they're playing better and because the Tigers have regressed. The Dodgers have made up a ton of ground in the standings in just a week because the Giants started losing.
[+] EnlargeDaniel Murphy
Rich Schultz/Getty Images
Daniel Murphy could be a player the Mets look to move.
The Yankees could use a starting pitcher, undoubtedly, and they may well land someone before the deadline. But because Toronto is much less than a super team, New York sits just 2.5 games out of first place -- and Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran really haven't performed as expected. The Red Sox have been shocking in their struggles, and yet they're just four games out in the wild-card race. They have improved the back end of their rotation with the performances of Brandon Workman and Rubby De La Rosa, and they are weeding through their internal options; it's hardly out of the realm of possibility that they could keep the current cast and get better results.
Think of MLB as a marathon. Oakland is way out in front of the pack right now, and behind them is a pack of 23 to 25 teams, at the 11th mile. And no one else in the pack appears ready to break away.
They can wait. The trade market can wait.
Parity could be a plus for the Yankees, writes Tyler Kepner. Brian Cashman is ready to deal, writes John Harper.
Among possible sellers:
1. The Mets should deal now, writes Joel Sherman. Daniel Murphy would have some value.
2. Samardzija is no closer to signing with the Cubs.
3. It’s time for the Rays to start selling, writes Gary Shelton.
4. The Rangers are buried deeper in the AL West after their latest loss.
Kershaw's no-hitter
The reaction of A.J. Ellis at the moment Clayton Kershaw finished his no-hitter says it all: He takes a moment to set down his helmet and mask before moving to congratulate Kershaw. Ellis and the Dodgers have been expecting this. It seemed inevitable that Kershaw would pitch a no-hitter, given his effort and his talent and his preparation, detailed in this piece from March.
From ESPN Stats & Information, how Kershaw threw a no-nitter:
1. Fourteen of Kershaw's 15 strikeouts came with his breaking pitches. That's two more than any other pitcher in any start since 2009.
2. Thirteen of Kershaw's strikeouts came in five pitches or fewer, one shy of the most by any pitcher since 2009.
3. Early in the count (0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1), Kershaw threw his fastball a season-high 72 percent of the time. In all other counts, he threw it 28 percent of the time, his second-lowest percentage of the season.
4. Kershaw went to only one 2-0 count and only one three-ball count.
5. He threw 19 sliders out of the zone and the Rockies chased on 14 of them (74 percent). That's the second-highest chase percentage against his slider in any start in which he threw at least 20 total. Overall, he had 15 K's, nine ground outs, and three fly outs.
The Rockies had no answers. The Dodgers celebrated with Kershaw. Hanley Ramirez didn’t make a excuse about his error.
Notables
• You knew it was going to be another bad day for the Tigers when a first-inning ground ball skipped off the corner of second base and caromed sideways, allowing the Royals' first run to score.
Jeremy Guthrie was dominant, as Andy McCullough writes. How Guthrie won:
1. He got the Tigers to chase 32 percent of his pitches out of the strike zone, his second-highest rate this season.
2. He kept hitters off balance: The Tigers were 1-for-13 with five strikeouts in at-bats ending in a fastball, and 1-for-6 in at-bats ending in a changeup.
3. He put hitters away: Detroit went 0-for-14 in at-bats that reached two strikes.
Right now, the Tigers stink, writes Drew Sharp.
• On Wednesday’s podcast, Tim Kurkjian and Jason Beck discussed the Tigers' issues, and we spoke with Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who told a story about Tony Gwynn. On Tuesday’s podcast, Jayson Stark and I reminisced about Tony and who he was.
• Anibal Sanchez has become the stopper for the Tigers.
• I hope Major League Baseball issues a statement detailing exactly why this play involving Russell Martin was reversed, and what it is he needed to do differently. I have not seen a play generate more frustration on Twitter, as baseball fans tried to figure out what happened. The folks in uniform felt the same way.
"Russell tagged the plate and got out of the way," Pirates manager Clint Hurdle said. "The runner slid cleanly across the plate: He wasn't obstructed."
During the game, Hurdle called MLB executive vice president for baseball operations Joe Torre to discuss the ruling from New York. "We're still working our way through finding out what is and what isn't obstruction," Hurdle said.
• The Reds are on a roll: Eight wins in 11 games, and they got another multihit game from Billy Hamilton, who just keeps getting better and better.
• Kevin Gausman continues to look like someone who could be a difference-maker in the AL East race: he shut down the Rays, as Eduardo Encina writes.
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