twinsfan -> RE: Players and prospects III (7/2/2015 10:28:43 AM)
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ORIGINAL: CPAMAN quote:
ORIGINAL: ewen21 quote:
ORIGINAL: djskillz Are you serious? CF-set. And Buxton figures to be above average right from the gate next year. LF-set. Rosario has more than held his own and is only going to get better. And he's 23. RF-not set yet. But plenty of options. It would be a surprise if one of Kepler/Arcia/Walker/Sano isn't a real option there very soon. 3b-Plouffe is not inconsistent. He's actually very consistent. 2012-.756 OPS, 2013-.701 OPS, 2014-.751 OPS, 2015-.752 OPS. All positive OPS+'s other than 2013, and he was close. To go with good defense. He's a top 10 3b in the game overall at this point. SS-not set. We have a hole to fill there. 2b-set. We may have the best in the game now in Dozier. 1b-Joe needs to play better, no question. There's also other options if something is really wrong. Sano/Vargas, etc. And actually Joe has barely been below average this year at the position, despite the worst year of his career. OPS+ of 95. 100 is average. DH-not set yet. But again, plenty of options. It would be a large surprise if Sano isn't at LEAST league average by 2016. And I think he figures to be much better than that offensively almost right away. C-not set yet. We need help. Pinto would be a big plus though and probably make us "average" there. I'm not seeing these glaring holes for the future. I see between 1 and 3, among C/SS/1b. I am serious. What made you think I was kidding? I explained my concerns very clearly. Do you think I am being obtuse? I see your assessments and I see holes in your thinking. You are essentially presenting the best case scenario--and while that is really nice, it doesn't represent reality. At least not in my opinion. We can talk gumdrops and lollipops all day long, but when do we analyze the other side? First of all, I don't agree with your statement that Buxton will be above average right out of the gate next year. I think that is unreasonable to expect. You are going to need to give me details on what you envision because I honestly don't believe the Twins have those expectations. They shouldn't if they are reasonably assessing his development. In might take him two or three more seasons to find himself. I don't see his bat as being ready. I would also like to see the guy stay healthy because the issue of staying on the field is starting to become a concern. I love Eddie Rosario so far. I have liked him since he and Sano were raking the Appalachian League. He is not a proven commodity, however. You say "he is only going to get better"....have you forgotten about Arcia, Vargas and Santana?? The truth is we have no idea what kind of player he will be next year. He's had about 170 plate appearances in the bigs. And given his history of suspensions and other things, he is far from "set" We can go round and round with Plouffe. Trevor IS inconsistent within seasons. He gets hot and then goes into deep slumps where he looks absolutely horrendous. All players do, but Plouffe's crests and troughs are a lot more severe. It is something that concerns me. The guy has a career OBP of .309 and an OPS of .727. He turns 30 next season. He had that power streak but the guy has hit more than 15 home runs ONCE. We agree that SS is a problem. Joe Mauer is a problem at first. There is just no getting around it. DH--We agree, not set. C- Not set. We agree. So, Dustin.....your initial response was "Are you being serious?" And yet when I look at your analysis I can only see that we disagree on 3 positions. Your initial reaction to my post really doesn't match up with your explanations Just for the sake of clarity I have to ask you a few things: 1. You expect Buxton to be an above average player "out of the gate" in 2016. OK, fine. Do you expect him to maintain it over the course of the season or do you think he'll have a hot April? Not sure what you mean. 2. YOu also think Rosario is our starting LF. How many games will Paul Molitor start him out there next year? You tell me. 3. Do you expect Plouffe to have an OPS over .800 next season? Matt and I had a nice discussion about this last night at the Rox ballgame. We both agree that the Twins problems do not stem as much from their veterans play as it has from their up and comers. Dozier has been very good. Plouffe has been above average. Mauer has been below average for a 1B, but even I will upgrade him to average because he is hitting excellent with RISP (and driving in runs). Let me digress here for one moment. Matt and I agreed that the numbers will show that Mauer's lifetime BA with RISP approximates his overall lifetime BA. OK, if this is the case, then how do you explain the fact that Joe's RBI numbers are much better this season? Well, the answer is that he is getting more quality base hits with RISP resulting in plating runs. In season's past, Joe would come up with runners on 1B and 2B and bloop a single to LF. The result was bases loaded and no RBI. Joe's batting with RISP shows a base hit. But no RBI because the runner from second base stopped at third base. This season, that same guy is scoring from second base. I realize this is a theory but it has to have some guts. OK, back to discussion. Santana, Vargas, and Arcia have all been fair to horrible this season. All three played a part in the Twins offense last season. Santana had what ultimately will be his career ML season. Can anyone possibly argue this point? In addition, Suzuki had undeniably a career season. Escobar also had a career season as a 3/4 time player. Hughes had a career season as a starting pitcher. That is four players who had career seasons in the same year. Hughes is average this season and the rest have been nonfactors or even liabilities in the lineup. So in summary, the Twins have to expect more production out of their prospects. These players simply have to mature and break away from being career minor league over-achievers and ML failures. Opposite field flares to LF tend to not score runners from 2nd because with less than 2 out, the runner has to hold up for a moment. That's always been a big part of Joe's game, so his RBI totals have suffered in the past. That's the one situation where maybe RBI numbers do matter? I'm debating this in my own mind.
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