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SoMnFan -> RE: Players and prospects III (6/4/2016 12:13:20 AM)
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Sorry Murf ... just got back on the computer
Keith Law's 2016 MLB mock draft 3.0
Don't take the static nature of these mocks as any indication of certainty; if anything, it indicates my own uncertainty, and I'm not going to start moving names around just for the fun of it.
As with the past two mocks (mock draft 2.0 and mock draft 1.0), I have omitted some high school players who are first-round talents -- Joey Wentz and Nolan Jones among them -- but may slip to the sandwich or second round to be paid overslot bonuses by teams with extra picks. To see how I'd rank the players, check out my latest Big Board, posted Thursday.
Note: Click on a player's name to go to his player card, which has a full scouting report written by Eric Longenhagen.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
A.J. Puk, LHP
Florida
The Phillies still haven't decided on the first pick, and they could go in another direction (Kyle Lewis, Corey Ray, Mickey Moniak) here, but if I had to bet on one of them versus the field, it would be Puk. Meanwhile, the list of names they'd like to overpay at pick 42 keeps growing, including Wentz and Blake Rutherford.
2. Cincinnati Reds
Kyle Lewis, OF
Mercer
If Puk gets here, I think the Reds take him; otherwise it's likely Lewis or Nick Senzel. Delvin Perez now appears to be out of the mix here.
3. Atlanta Braves
Jason Groome, LHP
Barnegat (New Jersey) HS
It's likely Groome, Lewis or Corey Ray here, though there's an outside shot they'd take Senzel.
4. Colorado Rockies
Riley Pint, RHP
St. Thomas Aquinas HS (Overland Park, Kansas)
There's a strong sentiment that the Rockies will take an arm -- Pint, Groome or Dakota Hudson -- but also a strong sentiment that they really like center fielder Mickey Moniak. I don't know which sentiment is stronger, but I think this is a pretty rare opportunity for the Rockies to acquire an arm like Pint's.
5. Milwaukee Brewers
Corey Ray, OF
Louisville
It's Ray, Delvin Perez (maybe) or Josh Lowe here. Lowe would have to be at a steep discount, but I know the Brewers scouted him heavily late in the spring.
6. Oakland Athletics
Nick Senzel, 3B
Tennessee
I think the A's are in on the guys I have projected to go in the top four as well, plus perhaps Braxton Garrett and Zack Collins. Ray and Perez appear to be out for them.
7. Miami Marlins
Braxton Garrett, LHP
Florence (Alabama) HS
I've heard the Marlins connected to a handful of prep arms, including Garrett, Pint and Forrest Whitley, but they're out on Groome.
8. San Diego Padres
Matt Manning, RHP
Sheldon (Sacramento) HS
The Manning to the Padres rumor has been around for a while but keeps popping up. They're also on Perez, who seems to be sliding right now.
9. Detroit Tigers
Dakota Hudson, RHP
Mississippi State
Hudson is in the mix for any of these next four picks (through the Red Sox), though I hear the Tigers would take Pint if he gets here.
10. Chicago White Sox
Zack Collins, C
Miami
I've heard them on Hudson, Robert Tyler and suddenly on Collins, but less on high school guys.
11. Seattle Mariners
Justin Dunn, RHP
Boston College
All college players here, hitters or pitchers, which is in line with the Angels' drafts when new M's GM Jerry Dipoto was their GM.
12. Boston Red Sox
Mickey Moniak, OF
La Costa Canyon HS (Carlsbad, California)
I had them with Nolan Jones in my last two mocks and still think that's a real possibility. I've also heard Collins likely stops here.
13. Tampa Bay Rays
Delvin Perez, SS
International Baseball Academy (Puerto Rico)
The Rays seem like one of two potential stopping points for Perez, along with Cleveland (the next pick), as his stock seems to be sliding right now. The Rays are also one of the teams heaviest on Lowe.
14. Cleveland Indians
Blake Rutherford, OF
Chaminade College Prep (West Hills, California)
This is a bit of a guess, as the names I've heard linked to Cleveland, including Perez and Dunn, might be taken ahead of them, and I think Cleveland is opportunistic enough to take Rutherford if he gets here. He has been floated as someone who might slide into the sandwich round for an overslot deal, however. Kyle Muller might be a long shot here as well.
15. Minnesota Twins
Forrest Whitley, RHP
Alamo Heights (San Antonio) HS
I've heard them linked to college and high school arms. Manning's name keeps coming up, but he might not be signable here. I had Muller here last time, and I think he's still a possibility.
16. Los Angeles Angels
Alex Kirilloff, OF
Plum HS (Pittsburgh)
I haven't heard them linked with a specific class of player, but they've scouted Kirilloff heavily, and it seems they are very open to drafting high school players under the new regime. They had a big contingent at the SEC tournament, including GM Billy Eppler, for Dakota Hudson's start, but I doubt he gets this far.
17. Houston Astros
T.J. Zeuch, RHP
Pittsburgh
I've heard the Astros linked to prep arms (Whitley in particular) and college arms, so I guess you could say they're looking for a pitcher.
18. New York Yankees
Ian Anderson, RHP
Shenendehowa HS (Clifton Park, New York)
Options here include Anderson, Kevin Gowdy, Taylor Trammell and possibly Muller. It seems like they're going with a high schooler, likely a high-ceiling type.
19. New York Mets
Will Craig, 3B/1B
Wake Forest
College bat all the way here, as I haven't heard them linked to anything else. Craig impressed with his arm strength in a relief-pitching stint at last week's ACC tournament.
20. Los Angeles Dodgers
Cody Sedlock, RHP
Illinois
Sedlock seems a fair bet to go in the 15-23 range, with the Dodgers a possible floor depending on how the board plays out.
21. Toronto Blue Jays
Kyle Muller, LHP
Jesuit College Prep (Dallas)
I don't know that Muller stops here per se, but I have heard the Blue Jays on a bunch of higher-ceiling high school guys.
22. Pittsburgh Pirates
Zack Burdi, RHP
Louisville
I had the Pirates taking Burdi the last time around as well, though I don't think it's a lock they take him or even take a pitcher. Burdi's market is somewhere in this range, however, no worse than the 20s.
23. St. Louis Cardinals
Josh Lowe, 3B/RHP
Pope HS (Marietta, Georgia)
Well, if everyone keeps comparing Lowe to Colby Rasmus -- I've heard that comp from three different teams -- maybe the team that originally took Rasmus will take version 2.0.
Compensation picks
With the first round being unusually short this year, I'll also predict the sandwich-round selections, the 11 picks awarded to teams that lost free agents who declined qualifying offers.
24. San Diego Padres
Cal Quantrill, RHP
Stanford
As I've mentioned a few times, I think Quantrill has a deal, or at least an understanding, with some team, which is why he's not pushing to return from Tommy John surgery. It might not be the Padres, but I doubt he takes the entire spring to rehab without an insurance plan in place.
24. San Diego Padres
Dane Dunning, RHP
Florida
Dunning boosted his stock quite a bit last week at the SEC tournament with a very sharp relief outing. He has been both a starter and reliever for the Gators this year but profiles as a big league starter.
26. Chicago White Sox
Gavin Lux, SS
Indian Trail Academy (Kenosha, Wisconsin)
Lux's market seems to be in this range, with the Dodgers and Blue Jays also heavy on him. The White Sox also have been linked to Robert Tyler.
27. Baltimore Orioles
Eric Lauer, LHP
Kent State
I've heard them on everything here, meaning it's probably a best-player-available situation rather than any specific player or type.
28. Washington Nationals
Robert Tyler, RHP
Georgia
The industry seems to like Tyler a bit more than I do -- I see reliever risk in his delivery and a lack of an average breaking ball -- but he's a big, hard-throwing pitcher who appeared to be a future top-10 pick as a freshman at Georgia.
29. Washington Nationals
Drew Mendoza, SS
Lake Minneola (Florida) HS
Mendoza has been linked to the Nats, who like this sort of boom-or-bust position-player prospect, having taken a somewhat similar player in Drew Ward a few years ago.
30. Texas Rangers
Taylor Trammell, OF
Mount Paran Christian (Kennesaw, Georgia)
The prevailing belief is that the Rangers will do what they did two years ago when they didn't have a first-rounder but picked 30th overall: take a high-ceiling high school player. The guy they took in 2014, right-hander Luis Ortiz, is now pitching in Double-A at age 20.
31. New York Mets
Anthony Kay, LHP
Connecticut
If the Mets land a college hitter they like at 19, look for them to open up to the idea of taking a pitcher here, high school or college.
32. Los Angeles Dodgers
Jordan Sheffield, RHP
Vanderbilt
Some scouts think the Dodgers take Sheffield at 20, but (1) I think that's too rich; and (2) the board might actually play out where Sheffield, who may have hurt his draft stock at the SEC tournament, gets to this second pick. I do think if they get a college arm at 20, as I have them doing, they'd be more open to taking a high school player here.
33. St. Louis Cardinals
Matt Thaiss, C
Virginia
The Cavaliers catcher isn't a great bet to stay at the position, but he's one of the better contact hitters in the draft class.
34. St. Louis Cardinals
Jon Duplantier, RHP
Rice University
The Owls right-hander missed all of 2015 because of a shoulder injury, so of course Rice coach Wayne Graham decided to work him extra hard on short rest in the Conference USA tournament. Duplantier struck out 143 in 106 innings this year for the Owls.
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