RE: Players and prospects III (Full Version)

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TJSweens -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 12:22:13 PM)

Ahhhh, sometimes the fish just jump right in the boat.



twinsfan -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 12:23:02 PM)

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ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

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ORIGINAL: twinsfan

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ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

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ORIGINAL: twinsfan

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ORIGINAL: TJSweens

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ORIGINAL: Mr. Ed

Brice Zimmerman @ZimMiracle
Byron Buxton not in tonight's lineup and just 4-for-23 (.174) in last six games; all Miracle losses.



BUST!

This Buston stuff may actually be coming true. [:@] You and Todd were right all along.

In all seriousness, this season has been a disaster for him. To spin it any other way is absurd. Will he drop out of MLB's Top 10 prospects by the beginning of next season? Probably not. But if he struggles again next season with injuries or just mediocre play, I'm officially off the bandwagon.



Umm, I think I have said all along that Buxton was over-rated.

Wow, everyone's pretty touchy. OK. Here's what I meant:

This Buston stuff may actually be coming true. [:@] You, Mark and Todd were right all along.



Matt, is "Buston" a joke term that you and Sweens are using? Pretty clever. [sm=tisk.gif]

Which explains that Sweeney did not come up with it. Todd did. [8|]



sixthwi -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 12:24:24 PM)

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ORIGINAL: djskillz

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ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

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ORIGINAL: djskillz

BTW, still waiting on you to sign on for that bet, Mark. It can be signature lines/beers, or anything up to several thousand dollars. Or anything in between.


$50 wine and dine bet. Now which one of my predictions are we betting on? Is it Aaron Hicks or Byron Buston? (pardon to Matt and Sweens potential plagiarism) OK, I will make it clear. $50 wine and dine bet on both of them being busts.


I'm in Mark. $50 wine and dine. For parameters, the ones I mentioned: Between the two of them they will play in a minimum of 2 Major League All-Star games over the course of their careers. I think that is Buxton's absolute floor for me. That work?



Really? Fifteen years from now if one or both are still playing and haven't been to 2 all star games do you really think you both will remember this bet? [&:]



TJSweens -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 12:25:23 PM)

Actually that was me as well. Todd just kept doing the BUST! schtick so I started calling him Buston.

What is your aversion to me getting the credit due me?



twinsfan -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 12:28:14 PM)

I still remember that Dustin and I had a Joe Mauer will/will not reach .880 OPS bet in 2008.

By the way, I think Dustin still owes me on that one. [:D]



TJSweens -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 12:29:31 PM)

What did you bet, a first edition analytics guide?



twinsfan -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 12:29:45 PM)

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ORIGINAL: TJSweens

Actually that was me as well. Todd just kept doing the BUST! schtick so I started calling him Buston.

What is your aversion to me getting the credit due me?

I stand corrected!



djskillz -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 12:30:51 PM)

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ORIGINAL: twinsfan

I still remember that Dustin and I had a Joe Mauer will/will not reach .880 OPS bet in 2008.

By the way, I think Dustin still owes me on that one. [:D]


Really? I don't remember that one. Let me know!

Looking at it; looks like Joe came up about 2-3 hits shy of .880 that season. Hmm.

All Star games certainly aren't a great way of measuring but we won't agree on measures if it's not something like that. I'll want OPS or OPS+ or WAR and Mark will want "game winning walk off HR's" or something.



twinsfan -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 12:33:55 PM)

I was supposed to get a fine California wine, but now that I think about it, I think I did allow you to pay me off with a Leinie's in the Metropolitan Club instead.



djskillz -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 12:49:05 PM)

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ORIGINAL: twinsfan

I was supposed to get a fine California wine, but now that I think about it, I think I did allow you to pay me off with a Leinie's in the Metropolitan Club instead.


Oh yes, that's right. Totally forgot about that. I can still get you a good CA wine if you'd like too; going tasting this weekend out there. Otherwise I owe you more drinks next time in MN.



twinsfan -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 12:51:33 PM)

How about another bet. I bet Trevor May ends the 2014 season (combined AAA and majors, if he gets here) with a better WHIP than Alex Meyer (also combined AAA and majors, if he gets here).



djskillz -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 12:56:53 PM)

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ORIGINAL: twinsfan

How about another bet. I bet Trevor May ends the 2014 season (combined AAA and majors, if he gets here) with a better WHIP than Alex Meyer (also combined AAA and majors, if he gets here).


[&:][&:] How about not. Pretty late in the season for that one. Meyer's still a better pitcher though.

I'm up for some other bet though. You know I'm always down to place a wager.



twinsfan -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 1:03:33 PM)

Looking for something we don't have to wait forever for.

How about this one. From this date forward, Danny Santana out OPS-es Arcia for the rest of the season. We ignore everything that's happened through August 4th.



djskillz -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 1:15:08 PM)

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ORIGINAL: twinsfan

Looking for something we don't have to wait forever for.

How about this one. From this date forward, Danny Santana out OPS-es Arcia for the rest of the season. We ignore everything that's happened through August 4th.


I'm in.



CPAMAN -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 1:17:48 PM)

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ORIGINAL: djskillz

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ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

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ORIGINAL: djskillz

BTW, still waiting on you to sign on for that bet, Mark. It can be signature lines/beers, or anything up to several thousand dollars. Or anything in between.


$50 wine and dine bet. Now which one of my predictions are we betting on? Is it Aaron Hicks or Byron Buston? (pardon to Matt and Sweens potential plagiarism) OK, I will make it clear. $50 wine and dine bet on both of them being busts.


I'm in Mark. $50 wine and dine. For parameters, the ones I mentioned: Between the two of them they will play in a minimum of 2 Major League All-Star games over the course of their careers. I think that is Buxton's absolute floor for me. That work?



ok, I am posting after having read through a few of the subsequent posts. A few things:

1) I still owe you two beers for previous Mauer bets. I cannot remember the exact details but I do agree that I was wro.. However, I do recall that the cost of a beer in 2010 or thereabouts when the bet(s) were made that a beer at a Twins game in TF was around $6.50-$7 rather than the $9 you pay today. Now it doesn't take an accountant to figure out that a loan of say $14 (error on the high side) suddenly turns into $18 in a couple years (even at an absurd 10% interest rate that is double that on most consumer loans in today's market.) So let's call in $15 cash or equivalent.
2) Matt will remember this bet for the rest of his posting days on talkvikes so that issue is a nonfactor.
3) I will lower the bar for determining what is considered a "non-bust" career for both Icks (patent pending) and Buston (royalties recognized). Neither has to even appear in an All Star in their respective careers. Although since the Twins automatically get an All Star representative. If either makes it on this factor alone, Dustin would win the bet for that player. IOW, either Icks or Buston were batting .270 with 9 HR and 35 RBI (common stats) at the AS break and if voted in as the Twins rep, Dustin would get credit for half of their non-bust career measuring stick. If this happens twice, Dustin is the clear winner.
4) IMO, the following would be satisfactory claim by Dustin that neither player was a bust in their career. And these stats are not negotiable as they already clearly favor Dustin.

a) If either player bats over .300 three times with a minimum of plate appearances equivalent to the same number that is used by MLB to determine if they qualify for a batting title that season.
b) If either player hits over 20 HR in any three seasons of their career without regard to other offensive stats as long as they hit at least .260 BA in the same season they hit 20 or more HR.
c) If either player has 85 or more RBI in any three seasons of their career without regard to other offensive stats as long as they hit at least .260 in the same season they hit 85 or more RBI.
d) A lifetime BA of at least .285 or higher in ten or more full equivalent ML seasons and Dustin is automatically the winner regardless of HR, RBI and other offensive stats.
e) Either player has at least 200 or more career HR and a lifetime .260 or higher BA.
f) Either player has at least 1,000 career RBI and a lifetime .260 or higher BA.

So, the ball is in Dustin's court. If these guys are what he thinks they are, none of these parameters are outside of attainable. However, anything short of what I have laid out is deemed a "bust" for purposes of this bet. [:D]

Do you still accept the terms Dustin?



djskillz -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 1:23:06 PM)

Hmm, forgot about you owing me, Mark. We'll settle that at some future game soon.

As for the stats, even though I expect them both to clear those it's tough for me to sign on to those because I just don't believe in HR/AVG/RBI as accurate measures of a player at all. We know that both are always going to be very, very good defensive OF'ers and baserunners. So factoring that in can we agree on at least 3 times having an OPS at the break of .780 between them? That would put them (either one that clears it) in the top 5 CF'ers in baseball as overall players. Or we could do that over a full season (probably more fair for both of us than All Star break).



twinsfan -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 1:26:00 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

Looking for something we don't have to wait forever for.

How about this one. From this date forward, Danny Santana out OPS-es Arcia for the rest of the season. We ignore everything that's happened through August 4th.


I'm in.

OK, we're just betting a beer for a game next season and, more importantly, bragging rights.

I trust you have ways of checking OPS from a certain date to a certain date.



djskillz -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 1:28:28 PM)

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ORIGINAL: twinsfan

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

Looking for something we don't have to wait forever for.

How about this one. From this date forward, Danny Santana out OPS-es Arcia for the rest of the season. We ignore everything that's happened through August 4th.


I'm in.

OK, we're just betting a beer for a game next season and, more importantly, bragging rights.

I trust you have ways of checking OPS from a certain date to a certain date.


Yes. If nothing else we could even just calculate it by hand if need be. Not difficult.



CPAMAN -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 1:37:47 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Hmm, forgot about you owing me, Mark. We'll settle that at some future game soon.

As for the stats, even though I expect them both to clear those it's tough for me to sign on to those because I just don't believe in HR/AVG/RBI as accurate measures of a player at all. We know that both are always going to be very, very good defensive OF'ers and baserunners. So factoring that in can we agree on at least 3 times having an OPS at the break of .780 between them? That would put them (either one that clears it) in the top 5 CF'ers in baseball as overall players. Or we could do that over a full season (probably more fair for both of us than All Star break).


Hmmm, the concept of even OPS is difficult for me. An OPS of .350 is generally pretty decent but certainly not great. A slugging % of .400 is fair but not even close to very good. So you want to use .780 OPS for only half of a season three times for each player, is this correct? Or do they have to do it in the same season three times? If that is the case, then I accept the adjusted terms.



twinsfan -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 1:38:56 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

quote:

ORIGINAL: twinsfan

Looking for something we don't have to wait forever for.

How about this one. From this date forward, Danny Santana out OPS-es Arcia for the rest of the season. We ignore everything that's happened through August 4th.


I'm in.

OK, we're just betting a beer for a game next season and, more importantly, bragging rights.

I trust you have ways of checking OPS from a certain date to a certain date.


Yes. If nothing else we could even just calculate it by hand if need be. Not difficult.

OK, we are starting with the August 5th game. Let's go, Santana!



djskillz -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 1:49:58 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: CPAMAN

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Hmm, forgot about you owing me, Mark. We'll settle that at some future game soon.

As for the stats, even though I expect them both to clear those it's tough for me to sign on to those because I just don't believe in HR/AVG/RBI as accurate measures of a player at all. We know that both are always going to be very, very good defensive OF'ers and baserunners. So factoring that in can we agree on at least 3 times having an OPS at the break of .780 between them? That would put them (either one that clears it) in the top 5 CF'ers in baseball as overall players. Or we could do that over a full season (probably more fair for both of us than All Star break).


Hmmm, the concept of even OPS is difficult for me. An OPS of .350 is generally pretty decent but certainly not great. A slugging % of .400 is fair but not even close to very good. So you want to use .780 OPS for only half of a season three times for each player, is this correct? Or do they have to do it in the same season three times? If that is the case, then I accept the adjusted terms.


OPS is OBP plus SLG, Mark. An OBP of .350 to .400 is very good and a SLG of .400 is also very good. For a benchmark, only 45 players in baseball currently have OBP's over .350. Only 86 have SLG over .400. And only 56 have OPS's of at least .780. Among ALL OF'ers, only 19 have an OBP above .350, 31 have SLG above .400, and 22 have an OPS above .780. Among CF'ers, there only 5, 5, and 7 that qualify in those. So I'd say I'm giving you a pretty damn good low bar here.

.780 OPS or more for 3 full seasons by Buxton/Hicks combined in their careers. So if Buxton has 3 or more, I win. If Hicks has 3 or more, I win. If they don't combine to have at least 3 of those seasons in their career, not only will I lose the bet, but I will likely stop being a Twins fan.



TJSweens -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 2:20:06 PM)

I just don't see Arcia having the consistency to make a run at it until he gets that big-ass hitch out of his swing.



twinsfan -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 2:20:48 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: TJSweens

I just don't see Arcia having the consistency to make a run at it until he gets that big-ass hitch out of his swing.

So are you saying you like my side of the bet?



TJSweens -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 2:25:02 PM)

Well I've never backed Dustin before, I don't know why I would start now. [;)]



djskillz -> RE: Players and prospects III (8/5/2014 2:33:20 PM)

I really have no idea how that one turns out. I'm just guessing Arcia is better than he's been and Santana is worse than he's been so I figure law of averages will even out.

I don't really care though. I just wanted an excuse for another bet. [:D]



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