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Stacey King -> RE: Players and prospects III (12/4/2014 10:03:53 AM)
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BA correspondent Mike Berardino was here to chat about the Twins’ top 10 prospects.
Mike Berardino: What’s up, everybody? Thanks for all the questions. Will do my best to answer as many of them as possible over the next 10-12 hours. (Kidding!)
@Jaypers413 (IL): Thanks for the chat, Mike. Are you convinced that Buxton merely had a large run of bad luck this past season, or are you at all concerned he may be prone to injury?
Mike Berardino: Buxton’s injuries are a concern, but not because he’s fragile or anything like that. It’s more his full-out playing style that seems to get him in trouble (diving attempts in the outfield, etc). Going back to late July 2013, he’s had a hard time building any career momentum because of these nagging issues. The Twins (and Byron) can only hope he’s due for a run of good luck moving forward.
@Jaypers413 (IL): Have your questions about Trevor May’s future role been settled at this point, or could he still be groomed to work out of the bullpen?
Mike Berardino: He’s a starter for me. Big, durable and has the ideal four-pitch mix. His changeup probably grades out as his best pitch overall, so I see the Twins giving him every opportunity to nail down a rotation spot for good in 2015. Just needs to sharpen his fastball command and build his confidence at the highest level after some really good moments down the stretch this past season.
Kelly (St. Cloud, MN): Adam Walker – is he a prospect or suspect to you?
Mike Berardino: Mammoth power, so he’s definitely a prospect — should be right around 16 or so again this year — but needs to make more contact and improve his overall approach at the plate. His strikeout rate spiked back up to 28 percent this year after he knocked it down to 21 percent in the Midwest League in 2013. That’s a concern. But there’s a lot to like about him, and I won’t be surprised at all if he takes a major step forward in 2015.
H. Killebrew (Twin Cities): Is Lewis Thorpe not being in the Top 10 a reflection on the depth of the Top 10? As an 18 y.o., he had a solid season in Low A.
Mike Berardino: Absolutely. If Eddie Rosario hadn’t re-established himself with an outstanding Arizona Fall League, the young Aussie would have kept his spot in the top 10. What dropped Thorpe to No. 11 for me was the combination of injury concern (he missed the Midwest League playoffs with a sprained UCL) and command questions. His 4.52 BB/9 was second-highest for any Twins pitcher given 10-plus starts in 2014. Then again, Alex Meyer (4.42) was right behind him.
Mike (Tampa): What did you think of Lewis Thorpe’s first full year? How far out of the top 10 did he fall?
Mike Berardino: See previous answer. I’ve got him at No. 11. Just missed.
Michael Stern (Rochester NY): What are you hearing about Jake Reed? Is his future role as starter, set up man, or possible closer? How close was he to the top 10? He looked so very dominant last year. Thanks for the chat !
Mike Berardino: No reason to change Jake’s role after the strong showing he had at three different levels this year, including the AFL. He does have a starting background at Oregon and he did use his changeup some near the end in Arizona, but he figures to open 2015 as the closer at Fort Myers. The exact order of 11-31 is still being sorted out, but I have Reed in the top 20 at this point. The Twins couldn’t have asked for much more out of a fifth-rounder in his first pro season.
Harry (Twin Cities): Between Cederoth and Reed, which reliever has the higher upside and will reach the bigs first?
Mike Berardino: Pretty close. If Reed stays in the pen and Cederoth continues to start, I’d say Reed’s path should be quicker.
Ben (Leland Grove): What were the reports on Max Kepler’s performance at Ft Myers this year? Is he in your 30? thx
Mike Berardino: Max did well at Fort Myers and performed even better in his second crack at the AFL. He did much better against lefties during the year, and it was significant to me when he drew a bases-loaded walk off a tough lefty in the AFL title game. His K/BB rate vs. lefties at Fort Myers was 26/3, although he did slug .390 and hit .273 off them for the Miracle.
Jeremy (Wisconsin): More likely to be used as a trade chip: Eddie Rosario or Jorge Polanco?
Mike Berardino: At the moment? Neither. Terry Ryan wants to hold onto as much young talent as possible. Down the road? All depends on what happens in left field and if Danny Santana can become the everyday shortstop as Paul Molitor and other Twins people hope he will. The other key piece, obviously, is Brian Dozier, who is still a year away from arbitration and would gladly entertain a multiyear offer.
Dave (New York City): Welcome to the Chat, Mike! Do the Twins still see Sean Gilmartin as a potential rotation starter, or has he stalled on that track? If the latter, does he have the ’2 dominant pitches’ to succeed as a bullpen ‘conversion’?
Mike Berardino: The former Braves first-rounder is well down the list as a starter and probably won’t make a deep top 30 after struggling three straight years at Triple-A. He still might get added to the 40-man roster on Thursday, however, after posting a 49/4 K/BB rate vs lefties in 2014. He only has one career relief outing, but I could see him making that switch soon.
Mike (Fargo, ND): What do you think of Travis Harrison and Adam Brett Walker? Both were praised for power, and Walker delivered by it seemed like Harrison dropped off. Do either crack the top 20?
Mike Berardino: Walker will. Harrison should be toward the back end of the top 30 after making the switch to left field.
Michael Stern (Rochester NY): Do you see any chance of Buxton and Sano both opening the season here in Rochester? Would be great to watch them together in the same line-up. Thanks for the chat !
Mike Berardino: Better chance for Sano than Buxton, who has one career game at Double-A. With the warmer April weather in the Southern League, my guess is both will head to Chattanooga to start 2015 as they try to scrape off the rust. Shouldn’t take them too long to get to Rochester, though. Hang in there.
Craig (Ohio): Mason Melotakis showed some potential as a reliever before injury? What are some thoughts on him as a prospect?
Mike Berardino: Had to drop him a good 10 spots or so in the top 30 due to Tommy John surgery, but he definitely was making progress after settling back into a relief role in 2014. Because he didn’t have TJ until October, he probably won’t get back on a mound until instructional league next fall. By that point he’ll be 24, but the former second-rounder remains an intriguing prospect with the ability to start or relieve.
Mike (Aberdeen, SD): Kepler seemed to be doing well in the AFL given his experience level. Is he going to be special when it all clicks for him?
Mike Berardino: You’ll get no argument from me with the use of that adjective. The sky is the limit as they say.
Gerald (DC): What does 2015 hold for Brandon Paulson?
Mike Berardino: Great story. Needs to throw strikes. Will be 25 in February. And it’s Poulson. Should open at extended spring training or possibly Cedar Rapids.
Alex (Chicago): Max Murphy looks to have some real pop in his bat. Does he make the top 30 this year? Is there reason to be excited and could we be looking at him on the top 10 list next season?
Mike Berardino: Looks like Max will be in that next wave of interesting prospects that fall just short of the top 30. Destroyed the Appy League as a college draftee but struggled a bit (40 strikeouts in 124 at-bats) after making the move to the Midwest League. Twins are eager to see how he does in his first full pro season.
Corye (St. Paul): What’s the expectation on Stephen Gonsalves? Does he project into an MLB rotation someday?
Mike Berardino: He’s coming along nicely. Had him 13th a year ago and he should be in that same neighborhood this time around. Right-handed batters hit just .221 against him this year, and his 9.59 K/9 rate was fifth among all Twins minor leaguers with at least 10 starts. Definitely one to watch.
Scoots (Louisville): We love Nick Burdi here in Louisville. Can he be as effective in the MLB as he was here in the Ville. How long until he is pitching in Minnesota
Mike Berardino: My current ETA for Nick would be sometime in 2016, but he might have other ideas. When you throw 100 mph and your slider might be your best pitch, that’s a pretty tantalizing combination.
Kevin (Minneapolis): Follow up of Adam Walker, do you feel it prudent to fast track him given his age and just see what he can do against Major League pitching? like Vargas…
Mike Berardino: Kennys struck out 23 percent of the time at Fort Myers a year ago and had a .344 OBP, which got better as the year wore on. Walker had nearly a 4/1 K/BB rate in the FSL and won’t have the benefit of winter ball as Kennys did. ABW2 will need to prove himself at each level along the way, but Kennys definitely surprised me with the leap he took in 2014.
Miracle Mike (Florida): Travis Harrison? Where does he rank now and what are you hearing about what he needs to do to keep moving up? Thank you!!
Mike Berardino: He’s in the 25-30 range again but he definitely grew as a hitter in 2014. Cut his K rate to 16 percent and improved his OBP to .361, tied for ninth in the FSL. The raw power is still there. I’d expect it to show up more under the lights next season in the Southern League.
Michael Stern (Rochester NY): The obvious question is – with all the time Buxton lost to injuries last year setting him back, what are his chances of seeing the Twins any time in 2015? Thanks for the chat !
Mike Berardino: After the way he handled himself in his first big-league spring training, I thought a September call-up was possible in 2014 if he’d only stayed healthy. I’ll stick with that moving forward, although he doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man roster until November 2016.
Mike (Aberdeen, SD): Is there a future for Levi Michael?
Mike Berardino: The 2011 first-rounder finally made it to Double-A this year, where he raked in a 15-game look. Unfortunately, he can’t seem to stay healthy and I’m not expecting him to be added to the 40-man roster this week.
hammerdad (Wisconsin): What is the strength and weakness of this system? Seems pretty balanced to me except for Catcher.
Mike Berardino: Stuart Turner is rising fast. Had a solid year for FSL champs in Fort Myers after skipping a level.
Josh (Kennesaw, GA): Any chance the Twins give Eduardo Escobar or Eddie Rosario a shot in CF?
Mike Berardino: Rosario has some experience in center but is said to be more comfortable on the corners. Esco? He’ll try anything, but his one career start in center (May 8 at Cleveland) did not go well.
Greg Gagne (Shortstop): What’s the outlook for Jason Adam? Do the Twins see him as a back-end SP, swingman/spot starter, or reliever?
Mike Berardino: TBD. They wanted to stretch him out after he came over from the Royals, but they ran out of time in August. He had his moments in the AFL, but they still haven’t seen him at his best. Will be interesting to see what they do on Thursday. He needs to be added to the 40-man roster or he will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. Tough call.
Hansford (Mansfield, Tx): Will Amaurys Minier rank in the top 30? Could we see him in full season ball next year?
Mike Berardino: Yes. I had him 24th last year and he should check in around that same area this year. Switch-hitter led the GCL in homers. Should be at Cedar Rapids by early next year. He will be 19 on Opening Day.
Seth (California): Eddie Rosario had a poor statistical year in AA. Did he hit poorly, make weak contact or have other hitting issues or was his poor average due mostly to a low BABIP as compared to other years?
Mike Berardino: Think he was just trying too hard to make up for lost time. Was much more composed in Arizona, and the results showed as much.
Michael Stern (Rochester NY): Surprised to see Perkins listed as closer in your 2018 line-up. You don’t think Burdi will be there by then? Thanks for the chat !
Mike Berardino: Don’t read too much into those projected lineups.
Jeff (Duluth): Tommy Milone had a fairly strong track record coming over from Oak. First, is he healthy? Second, do the Twins see him as 2015 rotation piece? Third, does he have options?
Mike Berardino: As I’ve mentioned recently on Twitter (@MikeBerardino), Twins have him penciled in for 2015 rotation. He is arbitration eligible and should see his salary jump to around $2.8 million. At this point, there is no reason to believe he’s in danger of being non-tendered.
Logan (North Dakota): Twins 11-20 best prospects would be better than how many other teams top 10?
Mike Berardino: Not my department.
drew (TC): In your opinion, who has the biggest ace of the staff potential of all minor league pitching prospects
Mike Berardino: Berrios, Stewart and Meyer all have that sort of potential.
Seth (California): What do you think the ceiling and realistic future role is for Taylor Rogers?
Mike Berardino: He profiles as a back-end rotation guy but his pitchability, makeup and consistent results are intriguing. I wouldn’t bet against him.
Chris (North Carolina): What will you be looking for in Sano upon his return to determine if his ceiling remains a top 30 sort of Major League hitter or that he might be something much more average? Thanks
Mike Berardino: Uh, there is nothing average about a healthy Bocaton, except for his speed.
Norman (greenville,sc): Trevor May in the 5 man rotation this April ?
Mike Berardino: He’ll get every opportunity, yes.
Kevin (Minneapolis): Where do you have Felix Jorge? What is his upside?
Mike Berardino: Mid-20s or so. I have him as a No. 4 starter or possible bullpen piece. Really struggled in Midwest League this year.
Mike (Aberdeen, SD): Buxton is the CF of the future, but do any of Max Murphy, Tanner English, Zach Larson or Jason Kanzler look to be in the upper echelon in the next couple years?
Mike Berardino: Kanzler is already 24, but he was a huge part of FSL title run. Mentioned Murphy here earlier. Has a good shot to break into top 30 next season.
Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Does Alex Meyer take full advantage of his super height when he is on the mound?
Mike Berardino: Interesting question. Considering his inconsistent results and the fact he has yet to reach the majors and will soon turn 25, the answer has to be no, doesn’t it? That said, I fully expect to see Alex in the majors by early next season.
Shoeless Joe (South Carolina): When will Sano get regular playing time in the Big Leagues? What position will he end up playing? Thanks..
Mike Berardino: TBD. Let’s see how his elbow holds up next season. I’m on record being in favor of Sano at first, Mauer at third and Plouffe in left, but that’s for 2016.
Pat (Wharton, NJ): Scouting report on P Ryan Eades? Give me some good news! Thanks for the chat!
Mike Berardino: Wish I could. He still has much to prove.
Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Miguel Sano’s concerns are his arm and weight. Do a lot of position players get Tommy John surgery? Isn’t it hard to lose weight for a guy who tends to gain it if he isn’t playing? Are you concerned that he might not overcome these problems?
Mike Berardino: Twins are pleased with how Sano used this down time to improve his overall conditioning. As for his arm, see my recent blog post on Carl Crawford and what he said Sano could expect in his return from TJ surgery: http://blogs.twincities.com/twins/2014/11/07/twinsights-carl-crawford-miguel-sano-expect-2015/
Jack (Minn): I think Jorge Polanco has a very intriguing and yet vague future. He was oddly called up from the FSL for a brief look last year. His defensive position is unsettled. And it seems like he has an offensive profile that can get overlooked because he’s good at a lot of things, but not great at any one thing. Help me figure out what to make of him, what do you think the Twins will do with him over the next few years?
Mike Berardino: Let him develop?
Rick (Waterloo, Iowa): How hard was it to leave Chih-We Hu off your prospect list? Looked like the best pitcher last year in Cedar Rapids.
Mike Berardino: Not that hard. Deep system.
Jeff (Minneapolis): For those outside of the top 15 or so, who has a strong chance to crack the top 10 in future years (sleepers basically)?
Mike Berardino: I’ll give you two names: SS Engelb Vielma and LHP Cameron Booser. Vielma is the best defensive infielder in the system and showed some potential with the bat this year. Booser is a late-blooming lefty reliever who hit 99 mph often at instructs this year.
Mike Berardino: Looks like we made it through pretty much all of the topics you wanted me to cover. Thanks again for the interest and all of the excellent questions.
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