Talk Vikes and Other MN Sports Talk Vikes and Other MN Sports

Forums  Register  Login  My Profile  Inbox  Address Book  My Subscription  My Forums 

Photo Gallery  Member List  Search  Calendars  FAQ  Ticket List  Log Out

RE: Gopher Baseball

 
Logged in as: Guest
Users viewing this topic: none
  Printable Version
All Forums >> [Other Minnesota Sports] >> Minnesota Golden Gophers >> RE: Gopher Baseball Page: <<   < prev  1 2 [3] 4 5   next >   >>
Login
Message << Older Topic   Newer Topic >>
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/1/2018 8:26:46 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
Gophers up 6-1 on Canisius batting in the bottom of the fourth. I don't want to jinx them, but it looks like they have their opponent outgunned.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 51
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/1/2018 9:11:56 PM   
Mr. Ed


Posts: 87660
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Minne-so-ta
Status: offline
Gophs routing Canisius.

Vavra 3-3

_____________________________

Escape while you can!
Post #: 52
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 10:24:59 PM   
bstinger


Posts: 13460
Joined: 7/20/2007
Status: offline
Gopher starter getting into and out of a lot of trouble. Still down 2-1 through 4.

_____________________________

"You guys are true athletes!"

--twinsfan
Post #: 53
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:27:34 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
Gophers get out of a bases loaded Jam in the 7th and tie it with a great chance to take the lead in the 8th. I don't get why we aren't the home team.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 54
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:28:09 PM   
bstinger


Posts: 13460
Joined: 7/20/2007
Status: offline
Playing with fire continually but escaping, now we tie it in 8th on a close play at home. Someone will have to explain to me how we are the host team but playing this game as the visitor.

_____________________________

"You guys are true athletes!"

--twinsfan
Post #: 55
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:35:22 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
After we tie the game we have a runner on second nobody out in the eighth and can't bring him home.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 56
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:36:26 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

Playing with fire continually but escaping, now we tie it in 8th on a close play at home. Someone will have to explain to me how we are the host team but playing this game as the visitor.

I asked that question myself. Doesn't the higher seed hosting the regional earn the home team designation? UCLA with a large advantage now having two turns at bat to one for us.

< Message edited by kgdabom -- 6/2/2018 11:37:35 PM >


_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 57
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:47:27 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
Lead off double in the ninth. Bring him HOME!!!

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 58
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:49:45 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
I hate the gophers bunting strategy. We did get him to third with one out, but one less chance to bring him home. Bunting has been statistically proven to be bad percentages.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 59
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:50:50 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
Pop out and now runner at third with two outs. Need a hit unless we are counting on a wild pitch.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 60
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:55:23 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
Mazzenga out on a super close play inning over. In this instance the Gophers bunted the runner from second to third. Here is a statistical analysis of bunting the runner from 1st to 2nd.

According to Dan Levitt of baseballanalysts.com, using a study that gathered information over 15 years of professional baseball, the expected run table for an inning sets at .877 in situations where there is a runner at first with no outs. However, if you decide to bunt the runner over, your expected run table for the inning drops to .693 with a runner on second and one out.

In essence, you are voluntarily killing your own rally.

In addition to the expected run table, basic percentages say that the sac bunt is the wrong play. According to Baseball Prospectus, you have a 24.4 percent better chance of scoring a runner from first with no outs than you have of scoring a runner from second with one out. 24.4 percent! Swing away.

< Message edited by kgdabom -- 6/2/2018 11:56:39 PM >


_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 61
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:02:14 AM   
bstinger


Posts: 13460
Joined: 7/20/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

Mazzenga out on a super close play inning over. In this instance the Gophers bunted the runner from second to third. Here is a statistical analysis of bunting the runner from 1st to 2nd.

According to Dan Levitt of baseballanalysts.com, using a study that gathered information over 15 years of professional baseball, the expected run table for an inning sets at .877 in situations where there is a runner at first with no outs. However, if you decide to bunt the runner over, your expected run table for the inning drops to .693 with a runner on second and one out.

In essence, you are voluntarily killing your own rally.

In addition to the expected run table, basic percentages say that the sac bunt is the wrong play. According to Baseball Prospectus, you have a 24.4 percent better chance of scoring a runner from first with no outs than you have of scoring a runner from second with one out. 24.4 percent! Swing away.

You're giving stats that don't fit the situation. We bunted a guy from 2nd to 3rd, not 1st to 2nd. What are the correct stats?

_____________________________

"You guys are true athletes!"

--twinsfan
Post #: 62
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:05:14 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
Extra Innings.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 63
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:06:03 AM   
bstinger


Posts: 13460
Joined: 7/20/2007
Status: offline
Nice pitching by Meyer.

_____________________________

"You guys are true athletes!"

--twinsfan
Post #: 64
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:06:44 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

Mazzenga out on a super close play inning over. In this instance the Gophers bunted the runner from second to third. Here is a statistical analysis of bunting the runner from 1st to 2nd.

According to Dan Levitt of baseballanalysts.com, using a study that gathered information over 15 years of professional baseball, the expected run table for an inning sets at .877 in situations where there is a runner at first with no outs. However, if you decide to bunt the runner over, your expected run table for the inning drops to .693 with a runner on second and one out.

In essence, you are voluntarily killing your own rally.

In addition to the expected run table, basic percentages say that the sac bunt is the wrong play. According to Baseball Prospectus, you have a 24.4 percent better chance of scoring a runner from first with no outs than you have of scoring a runner from second with one out. 24.4 percent! Swing away.

You're giving stats that don't fit the situation. We bunted a guy from 2nd to 3rd, not 1st to 2nd. What are the correct stats?

I said I don't have those stats. I couldn't find them at a quick glance. I did find some references to that stating it was a bad play also, but not with the same great stats against bunting the runner from first to second.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 65
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:09:05 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
Gophers have a runner on first with no outs. Watch them bunt him to second.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 66
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:09:58 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
And we do. Hope it works out well. Stats show it to be a horrible percentage play. Anderson has been an incredible coach, but that is dinosaur thinking.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 67
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:12:23 AM   
bstinger


Posts: 13460
Joined: 7/20/2007
Status: offline
Coffey with RBI 2B after another SF bunt.

_____________________________

"You guys are true athletes!"

--twinsfan
Post #: 68
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:13:11 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
We take the lead, but now we still have to hold the lead in the bottom of the inning. Hopefully we can score another.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 69
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:18:10 AM   
bstinger


Posts: 13460
Joined: 7/20/2007
Status: offline
You have to apply the information of the stat that is calculated over thousands of situations to the unique situation you are facing. Maybe Anderson didn't like that batter facing that pitcher. Maybe he thought it was a high percentage of a strikeout or double play? You can't expect that percentage to be the same in every situation.

It worked out.

_____________________________

"You guys are true athletes!"

--twinsfan
Post #: 70
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:18:11 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

Coffey with RBI 2B after another SF bunt.

We can never know for sure what would have happened if we hadn't bunted, but if the following players had of done the same thing we likely would have scored two or more.
Anyway done with my rant unless we lose. Than I go crazy LOL. Come on Gophers 1-2-3 inning and go home.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 71
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:19:14 AM   
bstinger


Posts: 13460
Joined: 7/20/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

Coffey with RBI 2B after another SF bunt.

We can never know for sure what would have happened if we hadn't bunted, but if the following players had of done the same thing we likely would have scored two or more.
Anyway done with my rant unless we lose. Than I go crazy LOL. Come on Gophers 1-2-3 inning and go home.

Maybe we hit into DP and don't score at all.

_____________________________

"You guys are true athletes!"

--twinsfan
Post #: 72
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:19:29 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

You have to apply the information of the stat that is calculated over thousands of situations to the unique situation you are facing. Maybe Anderson didn't like that batter facing that pitcher. Maybe he thought it was a high percentage of a strikeout or double play? You can't expect that percentage to be the same in every situation.

It worked out.

If we win sure it worked out. All the stats are strongly against bunting the runner from first to second. We likely could have scored two runs if we hadn't bunted. We will of course never know.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 73
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:20:27 AM   
bstinger


Posts: 13460
Joined: 7/20/2007
Status: offline
You can't even assume Coffey hits the double if we don't bunt. Once you change an event, you can't assume all following events would be the same.

_____________________________

"You guys are true athletes!"

--twinsfan
Post #: 74
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:20:34 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 29440
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

Coffey with RBI 2B after another SF bunt.

We can never know for sure what would have happened if we hadn't bunted, but if the following players had of done the same thing we likely would have scored two or more.
Anyway done with my rant unless we lose. Than I go crazy LOL. Come on Gophers 1-2-3 inning and go home.

Maybe we hit into DP and don't score at all.

Sure that could happen. Anything could happen. Still it is a statistically proven bad strategy.

_____________________________

"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 75
Page:   <<   < prev  1 2 [3] 4 5   next >   >>
All Forums >> [Other Minnesota Sports] >> Minnesota Golden Gophers >> RE: Gopher Baseball Page: <<   < prev  1 2 [3] 4 5   next >   >>
Jump to:





New Messages No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages Locked w/o New Messages
 Post New Thread
 Reply to Message
 Post New Poll
 Submit Vote
 Delete My Own Post
 Delete My Own Thread
 Rate Posts




Forum Software © ASPPlayground.NET Advanced Edition 2.5.5 Unicode