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RE: Gopher Baseball

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RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/1/2018 8:26:46 PM   
kgdabom

 

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Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: online 		Gophers up 6-1 on Canisius batting in the bottom of the fourth. I don't want to jinx them, but it looks like they have their opponent outgunned.

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Post #: 51
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/1/2018 9:11:56 PM   
Mr. Ed


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Status: offline 		Gophs routing Canisius.

Vavra 3-3

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Post #: 52
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 10:24:59 PM   
bstinger


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Status: offline 		Gopher starter getting into and out of a lot of trouble. Still down 2-1 through 4.

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Post #: 53
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:27:34 PM   
kgdabom

 

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Status: online 		Gophers get out of a bases loaded Jam in the 7th and tie it with a great chance to take the lead in the 8th. I don't get why we aren't the home team.

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Post #: 54
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:28:09 PM   
bstinger


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Status: offline 		Playing with fire continually but escaping, now we tie it in 8th on a close play at home. Someone will have to explain to me how we are the host team but playing this game as the visitor.

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Post #: 55
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:35:22 PM   
kgdabom

 

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Status: online 		After we tie the game we have a runner on second nobody out in the eighth and can't bring him home.

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Post #: 56
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:36:26 PM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

Playing with fire continually but escaping, now we tie it in 8th on a close play at home. Someone will have to explain to me how we are the host team but playing this game as the visitor.

I asked that question myself. Doesn't the higher seed hosting the regional earn the home team designation? UCLA with a large advantage now having two turns at bat to one for us.

< Message edited by kgdabom -- 6/2/2018 11:37:35 PM >

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Post #: 57
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:47:27 PM   
kgdabom

 

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Status: online 		Lead off double in the ninth. Bring him HOME!!!

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Post #: 58
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:49:45 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 33446
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Status: online 		I hate the gophers bunting strategy. We did get him to third with one out, but one less chance to bring him home. Bunting has been statistically proven to be bad percentages.

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Post #: 59
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:50:50 PM   
kgdabom

 

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Status: online 		Pop out and now runner at third with two outs. Need a hit unless we are counting on a wild pitch.

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Post #: 60
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/2/2018 11:55:23 PM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 33446
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: online 		Mazzenga out on a super close play inning over. In this instance the Gophers bunted the runner from second to third. Here is a statistical analysis of bunting the runner from 1st to 2nd.

According to Dan Levitt of baseballanalysts.com, using a study that gathered information over 15 years of professional baseball, the expected run table for an inning sets at .877 in situations where there is a runner at first with no outs. However, if you decide to bunt the runner over, your expected run table for the inning drops to .693 with a runner on second and one out.

In essence, you are voluntarily killing your own rally.

In addition to the expected run table, basic percentages say that the sac bunt is the wrong play. According to Baseball Prospectus, you have a 24.4 percent better chance of scoring a runner from first with no outs than you have of scoring a runner from second with one out. 24.4 percent! Swing away.

< Message edited by kgdabom -- 6/2/2018 11:56:39 PM >

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Post #: 61
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:02:14 AM   
bstinger


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quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

Mazzenga out on a super close play inning over. In this instance the Gophers bunted the runner from second to third. Here is a statistical analysis of bunting the runner from 1st to 2nd.

According to Dan Levitt of baseballanalysts.com, using a study that gathered information over 15 years of professional baseball, the expected run table for an inning sets at .877 in situations where there is a runner at first with no outs. However, if you decide to bunt the runner over, your expected run table for the inning drops to .693 with a runner on second and one out.

In essence, you are voluntarily killing your own rally.

In addition to the expected run table, basic percentages say that the sac bunt is the wrong play. According to Baseball Prospectus, you have a 24.4 percent better chance of scoring a runner from first with no outs than you have of scoring a runner from second with one out. 24.4 percent! Swing away.

You're giving stats that don't fit the situation. We bunted a guy from 2nd to 3rd, not 1st to 2nd. What are the correct stats?

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Post #: 62
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:05:14 AM   
kgdabom

 

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Status: online 		Extra Innings.

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Post #: 63
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:06:03 AM   
bstinger


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Status: offline 		Nice pitching by Meyer.

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Post #: 64
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:06:44 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 33446
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quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

Mazzenga out on a super close play inning over. In this instance the Gophers bunted the runner from second to third. Here is a statistical analysis of bunting the runner from 1st to 2nd.

According to Dan Levitt of baseballanalysts.com, using a study that gathered information over 15 years of professional baseball, the expected run table for an inning sets at .877 in situations where there is a runner at first with no outs. However, if you decide to bunt the runner over, your expected run table for the inning drops to .693 with a runner on second and one out.

In essence, you are voluntarily killing your own rally.

In addition to the expected run table, basic percentages say that the sac bunt is the wrong play. According to Baseball Prospectus, you have a 24.4 percent better chance of scoring a runner from first with no outs than you have of scoring a runner from second with one out. 24.4 percent! Swing away.

You're giving stats that don't fit the situation. We bunted a guy from 2nd to 3rd, not 1st to 2nd. What are the correct stats?

I said I don't have those stats. I couldn't find them at a quick glance. I did find some references to that stating it was a bad play also, but not with the same great stats against bunting the runner from first to second.

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Post #: 65
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:09:05 AM   
kgdabom

 

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Status: online 		Gophers have a runner on first with no outs. Watch them bunt him to second.

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Post #: 66
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:09:58 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 33446
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Status: online 		And we do. Hope it works out well. Stats show it to be a horrible percentage play. Anderson has been an incredible coach, but that is dinosaur thinking.

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Post #: 67
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:12:23 AM   
bstinger


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Status: offline 		Coffey with RBI 2B after another SF bunt.

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Post #: 68
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:13:11 AM   
kgdabom

 

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Status: online 		We take the lead, but now we still have to hold the lead in the bottom of the inning. Hopefully we can score another.

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Post #: 69
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:18:10 AM   
bstinger


Posts: 16415
Joined: 7/20/2007
Status: offline 		You have to apply the information of the stat that is calculated over thousands of situations to the unique situation you are facing. Maybe Anderson didn't like that batter facing that pitcher. Maybe he thought it was a high percentage of a strikeout or double play? You can't expect that percentage to be the same in every situation.

It worked out.

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Post #: 70
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:18:11 AM   
kgdabom

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

Coffey with RBI 2B after another SF bunt.

We can never know for sure what would have happened if we hadn't bunted, but if the following players had of done the same thing we likely would have scored two or more.
Anyway done with my rant unless we lose. Than I go crazy LOL. Come on Gophers 1-2-3 inning and go home.

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Post #: 71
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:19:14 AM   
bstinger


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quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

Coffey with RBI 2B after another SF bunt.

We can never know for sure what would have happened if we hadn't bunted, but if the following players had of done the same thing we likely would have scored two or more.
Anyway done with my rant unless we lose. Than I go crazy LOL. Come on Gophers 1-2-3 inning and go home.

Maybe we hit into DP and don't score at all.

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Post #: 72
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:19:29 AM   
kgdabom

 

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Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

You have to apply the information of the stat that is calculated over thousands of situations to the unique situation you are facing. Maybe Anderson didn't like that batter facing that pitcher. Maybe he thought it was a high percentage of a strikeout or double play? You can't expect that percentage to be the same in every situation.

It worked out.

If we win sure it worked out. All the stats are strongly against bunting the runner from first to second. We likely could have scored two runs if we hadn't bunted. We will of course never know.

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Post #: 73
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:20:27 AM   
bstinger


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Status: offline 		You can't even assume Coffey hits the double if we don't bunt. Once you change an event, you can't assume all following events would be the same.

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Post #: 74
RE: Gopher Baseball - 6/3/2018 12:20:34 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 33446
Joined: 7/29/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

quote:

ORIGINAL: kgdabom

quote:

ORIGINAL: bstinger

Coffey with RBI 2B after another SF bunt.

We can never know for sure what would have happened if we hadn't bunted, but if the following players had of done the same thing we likely would have scored two or more.
Anyway done with my rant unless we lose. Than I go crazy LOL. Come on Gophers 1-2-3 inning and go home.

Maybe we hit into DP and don't score at all.

Sure that could happen. Anything could happen. Still it is a statistically proven bad strategy.

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"So let it be written.
So let it be done."
Post #: 75
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