SoMnFan
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From Keith Law
The 2014 Rule 4 Draft is over, which means every club just got an influx of top talent into its farm system. Assuming all these top picks sign, here are five teams who just acquired a new No. 1 prospect as well as notes on two other teams' first overall picks and where they might slot into the prospect rankings of each organization.
Chicago White Sox: Carlos Rodon, LHP
The White Sox's top two prospects coming into 2014, Erik Johnson and Matt Davidson, have disappointed thus far. (Johnson has also lost eligibility for the list by passing the 50-inning threshold.) That makes the top of their list muddled. There's Courtney Hawkins, who is having a strong second go with Winston-Salem of the high-Class A Carolina League; Tim Anderson, who is hitting for average (.309) and playing good defense at shortstop for Winston-Salem but has shown poor plate discipline; and Micah Johnson, now up in Triple-A after a brief but successful run with Double-A Birmingham.
Rodon passes all three as a near-MLB-ready starter with a grade-70 slider and above-average fastball. Issues with Rodon's delivery have led to command problems and slightly reduced velocity, but the White Sox have an excellent track record of working with pitchers with unusual or difficult arm actions. Getting Rodon better extension out front and a cleaner finish will help him throw more strikes and maybe add more to his fastball. If all goes well, he should be in their rotation by this time next year -- perhaps with Micah Johnson playing somewhere behind him.
Los Angeles Angels: Sean Newcomb, LHP
The Angels didn't have a top-100 prospect coming into 2014, but they almost certainly will this offseason with Newcomb, a power lefty from the University of Hartford who has been up to 96-97 mph and can sit 92-94 with minimal effort, flashing two above-average secondary pitches in a curve and changeup. He's a clear starter who is probably just two years away from the majors as he works on improving his command and control; both were better toward the end of the spring.
Newcomb needs to develop more consistency with his off-speed stuff, probably by ditching the slider to focus on the curveball. He's an easy choice over two teenage arms in the Angels' extended spring training, Hunter Green and Ricardo Sanchez, as well as fast-rising shortstop Jose Rondon, who is hitting .333 for high-Class A Inland Empire.
Seattle Mariners: Alex Jackson, C
The Mariners' top prospect coming into the year was Taijuan Walker, but he has missed the majority of the season with recurring shoulder soreness, a malady likely caused by an upright finish in his delivery that has also softened his once-plus (and sharp) curveball. Walker is still a promising starter if he can get and stay healthy, but the risk, now even greater than the risk normally associated with pitching, slides him just behind Jackson, one of the best prep hitters in the draft class.
Jackson projects to hit, and for serious power. While he is fully capable of catching in pro ball, the general sense in the industry is that his team would pull a Bryce Harper/Wil Myers and move Jackson to third base or right field. He slots in ahead of D.J. Peterson, whose stat line is artificially boosted by playing his home games in the hitter-friendly park in High Desert, and Austin Wilson, who's too old for the low-Class A Midwest League and should have started the year with Peterson in high Class A.
Detroit Tigers: Derek Hill, CF
The Tigers had one top-100 prospect coming into 2014, Nick Castellanos, who has since graduated from the list and locked down an every-day job in the majors. No one else was particularly close. Eugenio Suarez has had a great 2014 season and provides huge value on defense, but he's also in the majors and I don't think the Venezuelan shortstop is heading back to Toledo at any point.
That leaves a big void up top for Hill, a plus runner and plus defender in center with a compact swing and plenty of physical projection to add some pop as he matures. The cousin of Darryl Strawberry and son of a longtime Dodgers scout, Hill spent most of his childhood in Iowa and played only the last three years in NorCal, so he's not quite as experienced as your typical California high school pick. Still, his thin résumé presents the potential for tremendous growth. I had him as the 11th-best player in the draft, and the Tigers nabbing him at 23 seems like a steal.
New York Mets: Michael Conforto, OF
This is a toss-up for me between Conforto, an advanced college hitter who had a .504 OBP this year at Oregon State, and Noah Syndergaard, who came back from a forearm strain only to hurt his nonthrowing shoulder in the first inning of his start Thursday. Syndergaard's injuries aren't a concern for his long-term outlook, but he's a pitcher. Given the choice between a topflight pitching prospect like Syndergaard (also known as "Thor") and a topflight hitting prospect like Conforto, I lean toward the latter for the simple reason of predictability.
Conforto could go right to high Class A or Double-A with his approach. If the Mets want to be aggressive, he could an option for their major league outfield by the end of 2015. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo is a solid No. 3 on this list. I'm also not concerned about Dominic Smith's stats to date because low-Class A Savannah has a horrendous ballpark for left-handed power hitters.
Close but not quite
San Francisco Giants: Tyler Beede, RHP
Righty Kyle Crick has more upside and southpaw Edwin Escobar is closer to the majors, but if Beede can throw enough quality strikes, he has the potential to be better than both of them. Still, given Beede's history of inconsistent command and poor responses to on-field adversity, that's an enormous "if."
Beede will pitch at 92-95 mph and has a plus changeup that he can cut or fade as needed. His breaking ball varies from start to start, but it's fair to call it a future grade-55 pitch. If I were reordering the Giants' top 10 right now, I would slot Beede in third, but he's close enough to the top to mention here and monitor going forward. If the Giants get him out to a full-season affiliate, we'll get to see if his command is any better.
Houston Astros: Brady Aiken, LHP
Aiken was the best player in the draft class and the first overall pick, but he's entering the majors' top farm system. Shortstop Carlos Correa is the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball, behind only Minnesota's Byron Buxton, and I believe reports of Mark Appel's demise as a prospect are exaggerated, as he has still been hitting 95-97 despite struggling with a nerve issue in his thumb and having no command in his last outing for Lancaster.
I'd put Aiken after those two but ahead of right-hander Mike Foltynewicz and third baseman Rio Ruiz.
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