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RE: Players and prospects III

 
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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 11:03:46 AM   
djskillz


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

I think it's reasonable to assume, while not "certain", that Rosario will at least be around league average next year. 1) He's a professional hitter. 2) He's around league average this year, and is 23. And again, I see no issues with Rosario off the field. The only issue he had was marijuana. And again, they don't test for that in the majors.

On Buxton, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect a .700 OPS from him next season. And that's certainly above average for CF with his other value. 1) he's always hit well in the minors. 2) this is an elite talent here. give him a full season and he's going to figure it out. and he's still got a few months this year to do so. i expect he'll be back around mid-July.


I also think it's reason to assume there is a good chance he won't be around league average next year. It's risky business to assume that a 22 year old player with 170 plate appearances will be around league average by the following season. Too many variables. Let's being with the questions of consistency and durability. He's played more than 100 games only once. When you say "league average" will that be for 140 games? Just curious to know what you are assuming.

With regard to Buxton, a .700 OPS doesn't really solve anything. If he can do that I am OK with it, but that is not "above average" as you stated earlier. And again, the issue of durability, health and consistency. You aren't taking into account these variables. At least you don't seem to. I have no idea how those three variables will come into play, but they will. They always do with guys just breaking into the league.

You are kind of talking around that reality.


Yes, that's for 130+ games. Tough to predict exactly how many given what else they do with Torii, etc. But I expect him to be a "full time" OF next year and perform about how he has this year.

On Buxton, a .700 OPS from CF is absolutely above average when you factor in his other value. There are 13 qualified CF's in all of baseball right now with OPS's above .700. Last year, 10 guys did it in the sport. If Buxton has even a .700 OPS (I bet it'll be better than that) he'll be a top 10 CF at minimum, given his elite defense and baserunning. I think a .700 OPS is a reasonable expectation for him next year, but he could well outperform that too. Remember, he's still got half a season this year to figure things out and gain some more consistency too. Regardless, CF isn't a position that we have to be concerned about at all starting in 2016 IMO.

I think a lot of it stems from how you feel about these guys. Some point to Vargas/Arcia/Santana, etc. and say "well, this is really who they are", what they're doing in 2015. I don't believe 2014 is necessarily who they are, but I think as usual the "real" versions are probably somewhere in between. So for every guy that has underperformed, there are plenty of reasons to believe that a couple of them will exceed expectations as well.

< Message edited by djskillz -- 7/2/2015 11:06:36 AM >


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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 11:13:32 AM   
ewen21

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

On Buxton, a .700 OPS from CF is absolutely above average when you factor in his other value. .


Let me stop you right there. When you consider healthy, durability, inexperience it counters a lot of the "other value" you keep stating and restating.

I understand he has blazing speed and plays great defense. He got hurt running the bases. He knocked himself out playing the field.
I have my concerns about him getting this stuff under control.

You don't seem to have any concerns. I guess I am not as highly evolved as you are.
Maybe with luck and a lot of hard work I get there someday

_____________________________

The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure"

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Post #: 3577
RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 11:19:26 AM   
Mr. Ed


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Rogers/Beresford/Achter make IL all-star roster.

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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 11:22:15 AM   
ewen21

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz
.

I think a lot of it stems from how you feel about these guys. Some point to Vargas/Arcia/Santana, etc. and say "well, this is really who they are", what they're doing in 2015. I don't believe 2014 is necessarily who they are, but I think as usual the "real" versions are probably somewhere in between. So for every guy that has underperformed, there are plenty of reasons to believe that a couple of them will exceed expectations as well.


Please wait for me to state my opinion on this before you attempt to craft my opinion for me.

I was very optimistic about Danny Santana in particular. I have stayed out of the Santana discussion for the most part. Part of me was afraid he'd be the next Pat Listach. By no strech, have I stated anything like what you have said above. I accept that there are peaks and valleys. I have not given up on Arcia. Find me one post where I have called him shot. Or where I said..."this is who he is"

_____________________________

The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure"

--Thom Jefferson"
Post #: 3579
RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 11:22:39 AM   
djskillz


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

On Buxton, a .700 OPS from CF is absolutely above average when you factor in his other value. .


Let me stop you right there. When you consider healthy, durability, inexperience it counters a lot of the "other value" you keep stating and restating.

I understand he has blazing speed and plays great defense. He got hurt running the bases. He knocked himself out playing the field.
I have my concerns about him getting this stuff under control.

You don't seem to have any concerns. I guess I am not as highly evolved as you are.
Maybe with luck and a lot of hard work I get there someday


Weird paranoia aside from the post above, certainly durability is a concern. But IF HEALTHY, his speed and defense are hugely valuable. They mean that he could OPS, say, .650 and still be an "average" CF'er. He'll do far better than that and in time will become a great hitter. One of the better ones in the game. IMO. He's too great of a talent to fail IMO.

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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 11:23:33 AM   
djskillz


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz
.

I think a lot of it stems from how you feel about these guys. Some point to Vargas/Arcia/Santana, etc. and say "well, this is really who they are", what they're doing in 2015. I don't believe 2014 is necessarily who they are, but I think as usual the "real" versions are probably somewhere in between. So for every guy that has underperformed, there are plenty of reasons to believe that a couple of them will exceed expectations as well.


Please wait for me to state my opinion on this before you attempt to craft my opinion for me.

I was very optimistic about Danny Santana in particular. I have stayed out of the Santana discussion for the most part. Part of me was afraid he'd be the next Pat Listach. By no strech, have I stated anything like what you have said above. I accept that there are peaks and valleys. I have not given up on Arcia. Find me one post where I have called him shot. Or where I said..."this is who he is"


I wasn't saying "you" as in "you, Ralph". I guess I should have said "how one feels about these guys." ie how anyone; me, you, anyone else feels about them and their futures.

I think like any prospects, some are going to fail and some succeed. A few rare guys are very, very unlikely to fail (Buxton/Sano). But the rest, some will pan out and some won't. The Twins have enough prospect depth now on offense that I'm not really worried about us finding solutions at any positions outside of SS/C.

< Message edited by djskillz -- 7/2/2015 11:24:43 AM >


_____________________________

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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 11:33:27 AM   
ewen21

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

On Buxton, a .700 OPS from CF is absolutely above average when you factor in his other value. .


Let me stop you right there. When you consider healthy, durability, inexperience it counters a lot of the "other value" you keep stating and restating.

I understand he has blazing speed and plays great defense. He got hurt running the bases. He knocked himself out playing the field.
I have my concerns about him getting this stuff under control.

You don't seem to have any concerns. I guess I am not as highly evolved as you are.
Maybe with luck and a lot of hard work I get there someday


Weird paranoia aside from the post above, certainly durability is a concern. But IF HEALTHY, his speed and defense are hugely valuable. They mean that he could OPS, say, .650 and still be an "average" CF'er. He'll do far better than that and in time will become a great hitter. One of the better ones in the game. IMO. He's too great of a talent to fail IMO.


See, now that was just sarcasm and you knew that.
This is where the sarcasm gets a little dumb. I do it to you, you do it back. Ho-hum.

You say IF HEALTHY. Yeah man. He's had two injuries that have sidelined him for a while these last two years. The guy needs to be on the field so he can develop. He is missing development time. You aren't even acknowledging this. That will most certainly factor into where he is next year.

Do you understand or even accept this as being a possible hindrance to his short-term development (i.e. the 2016 seasons)
Seems to me that you are talking all around it. Then when this stuff gets brought up you spout out all the superlatives about his speed and athleticism. Can we fit in some other things when discussing this kid?? We know he has amazing athleticism. Can we talk about his progress these last two seasons? It's not exactly stellar, imo

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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 11:35:09 AM   
ewen21

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz
.

I think a lot of it stems from how you feel about these guys. Some point to Vargas/Arcia/Santana, etc. and say "well, this is really who they are", what they're doing in 2015. I don't believe 2014 is necessarily who they are, but I think as usual the "real" versions are probably somewhere in between. So for every guy that has underperformed, there are plenty of reasons to believe that a couple of them will exceed expectations as well.


Please wait for me to state my opinion on this before you attempt to craft my opinion for me.

I was very optimistic about Danny Santana in particular. I have stayed out of the Santana discussion for the most part. Part of me was afraid he'd be the next Pat Listach. By no strech, have I stated anything like what you have said above. I accept that there are peaks and valleys. I have not given up on Arcia. Find me one post where I have called him shot. Or where I said..."this is who he is"


I wasn't saying "you" as in "you, Ralph". I guess I should have said "how one feels about these guys." ie how anyone; me, you, anyone else feels about them and their futures.

I think like any prospects, some are going to fail and some succeed. A few rare guys are very, very unlikely to fail (Buxton/Sano). But the rest, some will pan out and some won't. The Twins have enough prospect depth now on offense that I'm not really worried about us finding solutions at any positions outside of SS/C.


Duestin, you quote me and then say YOU. What the heck am I supposed to think?

I think you need to slow down sometimes. You get into hyperpost mode and you just blast off.

I think it's actually hilarious!

No worries mate

_____________________________

The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure"

--Thom Jefferson"
Post #: 3583
RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 11:35:39 AM   
djskillz


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Progress the last two seasons?

He absolutely was stellar this season until the injury. A little rust early in the season (to be expected after missing 1 year), and then he was great for the Lookouts for the rest of the year. I have zero concerns about Buxton, development-wise. IF HEALTHY, he will be one of the best players in the game. I have zero doubt of that, personally. I do have some concerns about his injury history of course. The first thing I'd tell him is to not slide head-first anymore. 1 extra base isn't worth it.

_____________________________

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 11:36:41 AM   
Mr. Ed


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First off, Buxton needs to learn to slide feet first. His slides in the bigs? Look amateurish.

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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 11:42:43 AM   
djskillz


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No doubt. He can still be aggressive; just be a little smarter with it. Or he'll end up like Bryce Harper has been.

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"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 11:48:18 AM   
ewen21

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Progress the last two seasons?

He absolutely was stellar this season until the injury. A little rust early in the season (to be expected after missing 1 year), and then he was great for the Lookouts for the rest of the year. I have zero concerns about Buxton, development-wise. IF HEALTHY, he will be one of the best players in the game. I have zero doubt of that, personally. I do have some concerns about his injury history of course. The first thing I'd tell him is to not slide head-first anymore. 1 extra base isn't worth it.


Well, that's settled.

I am a dummy for having concerns. Now I can rest assured knowing that you have zero concerns about him development-wise.
I must defer to you because I don't have the level of understanding you have.

Thanks for enriching my world.

< Message edited by ewen21 -- 7/2/2015 1:38:22 PM >


_____________________________

The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure"

--Thom Jefferson"
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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 11:54:43 AM   
sixthwi


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 (you two are something else)

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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 1:45:01 PM   
ewen21

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

No doubt. He can still be aggressive; just be a little smarter with it. Or he'll end up like Bryce Harper has been.


Harper had 24 HRs and 58 RBI with an OPS of 1.172 as of July 1st

If Buxton ends up like Harper we should thank our lucky stars

_____________________________

The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure"

--Thom Jefferson"
Post #: 3589
RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 1:55:35 PM   
Mr. Ed


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Javier story

KANSAS CITY –As was widely projected for the past four months, the Twins agreed to a $4 million contract Thursday with 16-year-old Dominican shortstop Wander Javier.

That’s the highest bonus the Twins have ever given an international player at that stage of his career, besting the $3.15 million they spent on Miguel Sano in 2009.

“We feel he’s a shortstop,” said Mike Radcliff, Twins vice president of player personnel. “He has all the skills, all the tools to be projected to be able to play in the middle infield, particularly at shortstop. Our projection is for him to have bat potential as well. There’s enough upside that we believe he’ll hit for average and power.”

Thursday opened the new international signing period, and teams such as the Los Angeles Dodgers will reportedly spend upwards of $50 million (including tax penalties for exceeding their bonus allotment) on teenagers with projectable skills.

The Javier signing technically won’t be official for up to 90 days as Major League Baseball and the Office of Homeland Security completes their extensive background checks. Javier still must pass a physical and be approved for a visa, but from all indications the Twins outmaneuvered several big-market suitors for a talented young player.

“We beat out several of the big-money teams,” Radcliff said. “I know that for a fact.”

Close to 10 different Twins scouts have seen the 6-foot, 165-pound Javier at various points over the past two years. The Twins have clocked him as fast as 6.7 in the 60-yard dash, although there is some disparity in the assessment of Javier’s running ability.

“That’s one of those skills where it seems like it’s black and white and automatic when you’re watching minor-league players or major league players,” Radcliff said. “When you’re dealing with 15- and 16-year-olds, it’s a somewhat subjective grade. They’re going to change their bodies, change their strength, change their stride. Right now he seems to have all the fluidity and athleticism to run the 60 above average.”

Javier’s bonus is double what the Dodgers are reportedly paying fellow Dominican shortstop Ronny Brito, who is said to be comparable at least defensively. Javier’s superior offensive potential likely accounts for the Twins’ more aggressive valuation.

“With as much money as we’re planning to try to give him, obviously we like the guy a lot,” said Radcliff, who would not confirm the bonus amount. “We have a lot of conviction on his skills and tools. He’s very projectable. As far as comparables, we have them and they’re with some pretty impressive players, but I hesitate to throw them out.”

The Twins drafted high school shortstop Nick Gordon with the fifth overall pick in last year’s draft, signing him for $3.85 million, but they liked Javier enough to spend even more on him.

“We think this guy has a high ceiling,” Radcliff said. “There’s a lot of positive names attached to how we think about his different tools and skills, but I’d prefer to wait until he’s played in a night game somewhere before we start talking about him being the next whoever.”

Besides Javier’s tools, the Twins liked the way he competed and the instincts he showed while playing in elite-level prospect leagues in the Dominican Republic.

“That is something that has been integrated into the process, and it’s been an outstanding addition,” Radcliff said. “We all have different opinions on their ability to compete, to process information, to make decisions and in-game adjustments. Our opinion of this player in that regard is all good.”

The Twins, who have an international bonus pool of $3,948,500, could still sign a few more teenage prospects, but it’s unlikely any of them will receive seven-figure bonuses. Teams can trade international bonus slots until the current period closes a year from now.

The Twins have yet to make such a deal in either direction since the current system was put in place.


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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 2:06:48 PM   
djskillz


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Progress the last two seasons?

He absolutely was stellar this season until the injury. A little rust early in the season (to be expected after missing 1 year), and then he was great for the Lookouts for the rest of the year. I have zero concerns about Buxton, development-wise. IF HEALTHY, he will be one of the best players in the game. I have zero doubt of that, personally. I do have some concerns about his injury history of course. The first thing I'd tell him is to not slide head-first anymore. 1 extra base isn't worth it.


Well, that's settled.

I am a dummy for having concerns. Now I can rest assured knowing that you have zero concerns about him development-wise.
I must defer to you because I don't have the level of understanding you have.

Thanks for enriching my world.


When did I say any of those things? Seriously man, take a chill pill.

_____________________________

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 2:23:50 PM   
Trekgeekscott


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

No doubt. He can still be aggressive; just be a little smarter with it. Or he'll end up like Bryce Harper has been.


Harper had 24 HRs and 58 RBI with an OPS of 1.172 as of July 1st

If Buxton ends up like Harper we should thank our lucky stars


if Buxton ends up 75% Harper we should thank our lucky stars

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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 2:26:02 PM   
djskillz


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I thought that would be a little clearer what I was saying. A big problem for Harper, as talented as he's been, has been a lack of ability to dial down the aggression. Lots of injuries (DL and nagging variety) over the last few years because of "aggressive" plays, both on the bases and in the field. Buxton should learn a lesson there.

_____________________________

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
Post #: 3593
RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 3:15:33 PM   
Mr. Ed


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GCL Twins on Thursday 2-1, in 10 innings

Cabbage 2-5/RBI, Marrero 3-4/R/RBI/2SB(2)

Wells 4IP 3H/UER/2BB/5K
Gomez 2IP 2BB/K
Vasquez IP H/2K/Pickoff
Schutte 2IP H/K
Quezada 1-0 IP 2K

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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 4:02:18 PM   
ewen21

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

I thought that would be a little clearer what I was saying. A big problem for Harper, as talented as he's been, has been a lack of ability to dial down the aggression. Lots of injuries (DL and nagging variety) over the last few years because of "aggressive" plays, both on the bases and in the field. Buxton should learn a lesson there.


And yet he's leading the league in OPS and has 58 RBI this year. I would quibble less if Buxton could provide that for the Twins.
As it is he runs like a gazelle and he can dive all over the place making catches.

Once he begins to approach what Harper has done then you can mention them in the same breath. As of right now, one is a prospect, the other is one of the biggest sluggers in the game.

_____________________________

The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure"

--Thom Jefferson"
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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 4:03:47 PM   
ewen21

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

quote:

ORIGINAL: ewen21

quote:

ORIGINAL: djskillz

Progress the last two seasons?

He absolutely was stellar this season until the injury. A little rust early in the season (to be expected after missing 1 year), and then he was great for the Lookouts for the rest of the year. I have zero concerns about Buxton, development-wise. IF HEALTHY, he will be one of the best players in the game. I have zero doubt of that, personally. I do have some concerns about his injury history of course. The first thing I'd tell him is to not slide head-first anymore. 1 extra base isn't worth it.


Well, that's settled.

I am a dummy for having concerns. Now I can rest assured knowing that you have zero concerns about him development-wise.
I must defer to you because I don't have the level of understanding you have.

Thanks for enriching my world.


When did I say any of those things? Seriously man, take a chill pill.


Again. It's sarcasm.

I thought that was OK here?

I guess my sarcasm cuts too hard.
I'm sorry if I hurt anyone with this post

_____________________________

The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure"

--Thom Jefferson"
Post #: 3596
RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 4:15:08 PM   
Mr. Ed


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use the sarcasm emoticon. Could save a lot of angst here.





Or

Which is my smarty-A**/sarcasm choice

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RE: Players and prospects III - 7/2/2015 4:48:30 PM   
ewen21

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mr. Ed

use the sarcasm emoticon. Could save a lot of angst here.





Or

Which is my smarty-A**/sarcasm choice


I will need to watch how McMurphy does it. He seems to have the market cornered on what is and isn't good sarcasm.

_____________________________

The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure"

--Thom Jefferson"
Post #: 3598
RE: Players and prospects III - 7/3/2015 5:46:21 AM   
Mr. Ed


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Thursday night

Despite 9 hits,Roch routed 7-1

Hicks 3-4 BB/RBI, Arcia 2-5/double/3K's


Peavey 0-2 5IP 5H/2R/2BB/5K
Thielbar IP 3H/4R/3BB
Johnson 2IP 2H/R/BB/K


Chatt had a doubleheader wiped out by rain


FTM lost 1-0

Both teams 4 hits. Vielma 1-4/double, Mejia 1-3/double

Hu 4-2 5IP 4H/R/3BB/3K
Burdi 2IP 4K
Gallant IP K


CRapids 13 hits, 8-2 win

Valera 3-5/3RBI, Murphy 3-5/double/3R?RBI, Fernandez 2-4/double/BB/R/RBI,Corcino 2-5/double, English 0-4/Bb/R/2SB(25)

Mildren 2-0 7IP 3H/R/2BB/3K/HR
Bixler 2IP 3H/R/3K

Eliz had as many hits as errors(4) in 8-2 loss

Guzman 1-3/2BB/RBI/2E's(3), Perez 1-4/double

Cutura 1-1 4Ip 2H/3R/1ER/2BB/3K
Robinson 2IP 6K
Irby 1.1IP 4H/5R/2ER/3BB/K
Guyer .2IP H/BB/2K 2-3 IRS

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Post #: 3599
RE: Players and prospects III - 7/3/2015 7:36:36 AM   
kgdabom

 

Posts: 33811
Joined: 7/29/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer

Darren Wolfson retweeted
DPL ‏@DPLBaseball 26m26 minutes ago
#Twins and Wander Javier make it official. $4.0MM.
http://dplbaseball.com/?p=46801
@mlbtraderumors

I read somewhere they have to pay a penalty to sign Javier for 4 million however if they sign him for 3.9 or so they don't. I'm hoping it's actually 3.9.
Post #: 3600
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