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DavidAOlson -> RE: General Vikes Talk (8/19/2021 7:23:02 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Phil Riewer
quote:
ORIGINAL: marty
I agree with Brad's take. You may not like it, but Cousin's vax stance [along with the other players that aren't getting vaccinated] is likely to have a negative effect on team cohesion, which directly relates to the young players coming in.
It will all be for naught...mask mandate, social distancing, etc. will be back as soon as next week. Vaccinated or not. So was not having to wear a mask for 3 months just a ploy to get everyone vaccinated?
Even in Brad's favorite state:
https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/local/2021/08/05/vermont-businesses-bring-back-mask-mandates-covid-19-delta-variant/5495414001/
No, it wasn't a ploy. New strain, new properties, new policies required.
Look up the Spanish Flu. The first wave was bad, and the virus spread around the world and got lots of chances to mutate. The second wave was deadly, probably because the most transmissible strains became prevalent and went around the world again. The same sort of thing has happened with COVID.
Here's how the numbers play out in practice: for the original strain, each infection initially spread to about 3 additional people. Before a vaccine, we needed to cut down contacts so that a sick person didn't meet 2 of those people, or wore a mask to make it less likely that the transmission would happen. (Or was in a ventilated space, etc.)
The vaccine changed those requirements: if 2 out of 3 people were not susceptible, either by vaccination or because they'd been infected, then we didn't need masks or distancing to stop the epidemic.
BUT, the Delta strain spreads to 5-8 people. Use the low end of 5. To stop the Delta strain, at least 4 of the 5 people have to be effectively immune, but we're nowhere near 80% vaccinated. And actually, since the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine is about 80-90% effective against the Delta strain (or perhaps less), we need near universal vaccination to stop the epidemic; until children can be vaccinated, that simply can't be done.
BASIC CONCLUSION: For Delta you have three main outcomes: get vaccinated, get sick, or isolate more than last year.
Football players can't really isolate. Anyone with children under 12 can't effectively isolate. So their choices are get vaccinated or get sick. That's why the major pediatrics association asked for fast approval for use in younger kids: the safety data is clear enough that the vaccines are much, much less risky than the disease. Every supposed objection to the vaccines is trumped by worse from the disease. Worried about myocarditis? COVID causes more and worse cases. Worked up about injecting mRNA? What do you think a virus does? And on and on.
I don't think Cousin's (apparent) refusal to get vaccinated will have much of an effect on cohesion.
But because I don't think Cousins can effectively isolate from Delta, he's essentially choosing to get sick at some point. If he gets sick and costs the team several wins, other players will be pissed and that will definitely hurt cohesion.
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