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David Levine -> RE: 2024 Free Agency (3/12/2024 12:16:09 PM)
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Insider Grades:
Vikings add DE Jonathan Greenard to boost pass rush
The deal: Four years, $72 million with $42 million guaranteed
Grade: A
The Vikings are (presumably) letting Danielle Hunter walk out the door, but in Greenard they are replacing him with another very good pass-rusher -- and at a good price, too.
Greenard is a metrics darling, recording a 22% pass rush win rate that ranked sixth among edge rushers last season, ahead of stars such as Haason Reddick, Brian Burns and Trey Hendrickson. And he's a solid run defender, too, with a 37% run stop win rate at edge that would have led the position had he played enough to qualify. (That he played a little less on early downs and didn't qualify is perhaps a sign he wasn't as strong as the figure implies, but Greenard was consistently above average in the metric in both 2021 and 2022.)
Oh, and did I bury the lede? Greenard brings more than under-the-hood production, as he had 12.5 sacks too. And he did it on only 345 pass rushes. Among players with at least 200 pass rushes, Greenard ranked fourth in sack rate (3.6%).
This is not a move without risk. Greenard has struggled to stay on the field at times -- he played 12, eight and 15 games per year in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively. The Vikings are buying the breakout, as Greenard's pass rush win rates were solid in the past but not on the level of his 2023 play. He did have eight sacks in 2021, though.
But the $18 million APY price tag is not that of a superstar edge rusher. After adjusting for cap inflation, that makes this deal in the same realm as Alex Highsmith's extension with the Steelers last year or Matthew Judon's contract with the Patriots in 2021, per OverTheCap. And it pales in comparison to top-of-the-market deals like Olivier Vernon's free agent deal with the Giants in 2016 ($28 million in today's dollars) or Montez Sweat's extension with the Bears ($27 million), let alone T.J. Watt's deal ($39 million).
While there's risk in buying high, to me this is a gamble easily worth making. This isn't just a single year of sack production. All the signs are there of Greenard being a very high-level edge player. Those don't come around on the free agent market at age 26 often. -- Walder
What this means for the 2024 draft: Looking at the Vikings' roster before free agency, the expectation was that if the team didn't re-sign Hunter, selecting a pass-rusher was in play early in the draft, potentially at No. 11 overall. With Greenard signed, pass-rusher can now move down the team's list of needs. The focus in Minnesota now is all on quarterback. -- Miller
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Vikings keep building defense with Andrew Van Ginkel
The deal: Two years, $20 million with $14 million guaranteed
Grade: B
The Vikings continue to add to the pass rush. After signing pass-rusher Jonathan Greenard to a four-year, $72 million deal, they added a versatile pass-rusher in outside linebacker Van Ginkel. A Rock Valley, Iowa, native who played his college football at Wisconsin, Van Ginkel heads back to the Midwest on a deal that pays him well at 28 years old. The 2023 season was his best yet, with six sacks in 11 starts; he worked primarily as a rotational player in previous seasons. He also had one interception -- which he returned for a touchdown -- and six pass breakups.
The Vikings were tied for 19th in sacks last season (43) and entered the offseason with four defensive ends set to hit free agency. Even after signing Greenard, more of a presence was needed coming off the edge of the line. Van Ginkel has familiarity with current Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores from their time together in Miami, and now he has a pay day that's worthy of a top-three pass-rusher and likely starter in Minnesota.
This is a low-risk signing for the Vikings and allows the team to cross off a priority need without exhausting draft capital to do so. And that has become much more important with Kirk Cousins signing in Atlanta earlier Monday -- Minnesota will likely have to use a high pick on a quarterback, or package picks to move up in the draft to select one. -- Miller
https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/39633029/2024-nfl-free-agency-grades-signings-trades-latest-best-worst-deals-draft-outlook
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