RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (Full Version)

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Shaun Stuart -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (8/30/2013 7:44:09 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

I'm starting to get the feeling the Vikes will take the division, but it won't be easy.



I'm starting to think that the second part of your prediction is eerily prescient. [;)]



Prescott -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (8/30/2013 8:11:22 AM)

quote:

Peterson will regress to their career means and have mediocre seasons


Peterson's mean is not even close to mediocre.



J Jeffreys -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (8/30/2013 9:41:01 AM)

I think the Steelers drop BIG this year.  Tomlin on the hot seat?  Could be.  But how many head coaches have the Steelers had in 40 years?  They don't have a fire sale beacuse of a bad season or two.



DeLain -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (8/30/2013 11:55:06 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: J Jeffreys

I think the Steelers drop BIG this year.  Tomlin on the hot seat?  Could be.  But how many head coaches have the Steelers had in 40 years?  They don't have a fire sale beacuse of a bad season or two.




I don't think Tomlin is on thje hot seat at all, but the steelers have the oldest defense and almost the youngest offense . I don't think that is a good combo. I did hear from a couple places saying they expect Rapistberger to have a good year.


Oldest to youngest. Seattle is scary that they are so young but still so good. There is some worry though when all those rookie contracts start to expire....


2013 Projected Starter Age Rankings
Team OFF DEF All
Bears 11 3 1
Falcons 13 4 2
Texans 2 11 3
Redskins 19 2 4
Broncos 3 13 5
Patriots 7 9 6
Cardinals 15 7 7
Steelers 30 1 8
49ers 9 12 9
Giants 12 10 10
Saints 1 25 11
Ravens 14 8 12
Cowboys 5 18 13
Chargers 4 24 14
Eagles 8 17 15
Lions 6 23 16
Colts 21 5 17
Panthers 10 22 18
Dolphins 25 6 19
Jets 16 26 20
Jaguars 24 15 21
Raiders 20 20 22
Buccaneers 18 27 23
Vikings 28 14 24
Titans 17 30 25
Bengals 26 19 26
Packers 29 16 27
Bills 23 28 28
Seahawks 22 29 29
Chiefs 31 21 30
Rams 27 31t 31
Browns 32 31t 32



J Jeffreys -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (8/30/2013 12:23:53 PM)

Shaun, prescient :)  Nice vocabule for a Neanderthal message board.



J Jeffreys -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (8/30/2013 1:46:35 PM)

Wow.  I don't know why this is just hitting me but the next game is Detroit and it counts.  Here we go!



Trekgeekscott -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (8/30/2013 2:54:14 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Prescott

quote:

Peterson will regress to their career means and have mediocre seasons


Peterson's mean is not even close to mediocre.


for Peterson, 1800 yards will seem mediocre to some.




John Childress -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (8/30/2013 2:56:40 PM)

The problem in Pittsburgh isn't Tomlin but whoever their GM is; he hasn't done squat to repair the offensive line or land a stud RB

They also let Wallace go

Steelers problems are mostly GM related



Prescott -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (8/30/2013 2:58:22 PM)

Peterson's career mean is 1600 yards and 14 TDs. If people want to think that's mediocre.. I was going to say they can, but they'd be wrong.



Lynn G. -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (8/30/2013 3:07:58 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: J Jeffreys

Wow.  I don't know why this is just hitting me but the next game is Detroit and it counts.  Here we go!


Get your picks in everyone. Both the picks pool and the survivor pools are up and running.



J Jeffreys -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (8/30/2013 4:05:25 PM)

With a bad season, with most owners Tomlin could be in trouble, but the Rooneys aren't prone to knee jerk admin moves.  I like that.



John Childress -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (8/30/2013 5:59:52 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: J Jeffreys

With a bad season, with most owners Tomlin could be in trouble, but the Rooneys aren't prone to knee jerk admin moves.  I like that.

I don't think so at all.

He won a Super Bowl and took his team to another one

Tom Coughlin has missed the playoffs in 3 of the last 4 years - think he is in trouble?

Even more so, anyone can see the problem with the Steelers is the GM



drviking -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (8/30/2013 6:30:12 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: John Childress

quote:

ORIGINAL: J Jeffreys

With a bad season, with most owners Tomlin could be in trouble, but the Rooneys aren't prone to knee jerk admin moves.  I like that.

I don't think so at all.

He won a Super Bowl and took his team to another one

Tom Coughlin has missed the playoffs in 3 of the last 4 years - think he is in trouble?

Even more so, anyone can see the problem with the Steelers is the GM


And they sat with cowher for how long?


Wasn't he ten years in before his superbow runs?



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (8/30/2013 8:23:25 PM)

Peterson's career mean is 1600 yards and 14 TDs.

So last year, Peterson went around 500 yards above his career mean average. While I don't think he'll go 500 below that average, I think he'll goo about 2 to 3 hundred yards below it. So I'll go with about 1400 yards. I think he's going to get about 1469 yards, that is my prediction.



Trekgeekscott -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/3/2013 12:05:20 PM)

All right folks.  It’s officially time for my annual, pulled straight out of my ass predictions for the 2013 NFL season. 
 
I will start with the NFC.
AFC will come in a later post.
NFC East
This is going to be a fun division to pick. 
Giants division to lose imho.  Eli Manning will pilot this team effectively and the DLine will continue to give opposing OCs fits/nightmares.
Redskins come in second and fight for a wildcard playoff spot.  RGIII plays well and leads the team.
Cowboys believe Romo is the man…and that will be their demise until such time as they come to their blooming senses.  Jerry has lost his mind.
Eagles, with the options at QB being Foles, Vick, and Barkely, are going to struggle, especially with a new Head Coach.  Fancy offense will probably surprise a few teams early, but by seasons end they will have struggled mightily.
NFC South
This is going to be a dogfight between Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints.  Bucs aren’t quite there yet but will give passing offenses fits, their offense is too inconsistent at this point…and the Panthers…well they’re gonna suck for a few more years.  Cam Newton is about all they’ve got going for them. 
NFC West. 
Another dogfight, this one between the concensus all around best team 49ers and the very competitive Seahawks.  Rams are on the upswing too with Tavon Austin lighting stuff up for them.  Cardinals have a terribly QB situation as Carson Palmer has sucked for years and nobody else is worth a poop there.
NFC North
VIKINGS!  Will surprise a lot of people.  Young hungry offense and defense and a motivated AD will run rampant on the NFC North.
Packers will be the only real competition until Aaron Rodgers gets hurt as the Packers have to have some bad Karma after nearly 21 years of only two QBs (with only Flynn getting one start), then they will suck.
 
Bears with new coach and no heart of defense will regress and Cutler implodes as usual. 
Lions will compete but will end up in their normal position…last place.
 
Division winners
Giants
Falcons
49ers
Vikings
Wild Cards
Saints
Redskins
 
First round bye
49ers
Falcons
 
Wildcard
 
Vikings Redskinsm – Vikings win
Saints Giants – Saints win
 
Divisional round
Vikings SF.  Vikes upset the favorites just like in the 80s
Saints Falcons – dogfight continues with Falcons winning this round
 
NFC Championship game
Vikings take revenge for 98 upset.



Trekgeekscott -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/3/2013 12:40:17 PM)

AFC
East
Dolphins got nothing
Jets got nothing
Bills are dropping QBs like flies
New England, to my chargrin, when they appear the most weak, will still win their division.
 
South
Texans to lose…only thing that keeps them from the div title is health, they need to keep Andre and Schaub etc upright.
Colts, Flash in the pan with Luck, they will be competitive, but will come back to earth now that Arians is gone.
Titans, years away yet.  They’re gonna stink.
Jaguars stink worse than the Titans
 
North
Ravens had too much turnover
Steelers will struggle
Browns will actually surprise people
Bengals will compete.
Tough division for me to predict but the Ravens are run well and will weather the losses of Lewis, Reed, and Boldin and hold on to the division.
West
Can anyone see the Chargers with a new coach, Raiders who have sucked for a decade, or the Chiefs fresh off the first overall pick, Alex Smith at QB and Andy Reid at HC overtaking the Broncos?
I didn’t think so either.
 
AFC Byes
Patriots
Broncos
Wildcard round
Ravens beat up on Browns
Texans take out Steelers
Yep…three teams out of the North.
Division round
Broncos exact revenge on Ravens
Texans upset the Pats
AFC Championship
Broncos beat up Texans
Giving us Peyton Manning vs the Vikings in the Superbowl…AND my purple shaded glasses say we WIN IT ALL!!!



Prescott -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/3/2013 1:26:09 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: drviking

quote:

ORIGINAL: John Childress

quote:

ORIGINAL: J Jeffreys

With a bad season, with most owners Tomlin could be in trouble, but the Rooneys aren't prone to knee jerk admin moves.  I like that.

I don't think so at all.

He won a Super Bowl and took his team to another one

Tom Coughlin has missed the playoffs in 3 of the last 4 years - think he is in trouble?

Even more so, anyone can see the problem with the Steelers is the GM


And they sat with cowher for how long?


Wasn't he ten years in before his superbow runs?


4th year. He took a Steeler team that had really slipped and got them to the playoffs his first year, and the Super Bowl by his 4th. So when they had a bit of a drop off under him, you could understand why they stuck with him and it eventually paid off with rings. Same thing with Tomlin. Having early success means you've got more time if you go through a rough patch, because you've earned that trust.



El Duderino -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/3/2013 1:33:51 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

Peterson's career mean is 1600 yards and 14 TDs.

So last year, Peterson went around 500 yards above his career mean average. While I don't think he'll go 500 below that average, I think he'll goo about 2 to 3 hundred yards below it. So I'll go with about 1400 yards. I think he's going to get about 1469 yards, that is my prediction.


Gambler's fallacy. Peterson doesn't need to perform below average to regress to mean. Anywhere between mean and 2012 high counts. Just because he outperformed his mean in one season doesn't mean he's due to underperform the next.



Prescott -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/3/2013 2:30:04 PM)

You're right. On top of that, 1469 yards is not mediocre by any means. It is top 5 in pretty much any recent year you want to look at, and would be the third best total of Adrian Peterson's career.



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/3/2013 8:31:01 PM)

You're right Duderino, that's why I didn't predict 500 yards BELOW his mean for this upcoming season, it'll probably take a few seasons to even out that mean, and it might come in his later years. I went just 121 yards below the mean of 1600, if that is in fact his mean. That's still a pretty good season, just sort of mediocre for Peterson, especially when you consider his ceiling might well be 2500 yards in a season. I'm still hoping he gets THAT, but am predicting 1469 yards.



marty -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/3/2013 9:48:33 PM)

I'm going to post my predictions for the season tomorrow night. It's great to see some are picking the Vikings to win the division and even the SB. I thought maybe the pre-season performance was getting people a little down. OTOH, are these serious predictions, is that what they really believe will happen, or just wishful thinking ?

I've been waiting to see if the Vikes sign Antoine Winfield. I'm going to assume after tomorrow the Vikes are NOT signing him. I think it's a 2 game difference. Right now, I'm think the Vikes will go 9-7 without him, and 11-5 if they sign him.

I think Winfield would probably make a play or 2 that is the direct difference in a win, and then his presence helps out in several other games, one game where it's pretty much the difference between a win and a loss. So again, having him for the season, brings about 2 more wins.



SoMnFan -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/3/2013 9:51:04 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

I'm going to post my predictions for the season tomorrow night. It's great to see some are picking the Vikings to win the division and even the SB. I thought maybe the pre-season performance was getting people a little down. OTOH, are these serious predictions, is that what they really believe will happen, or just wishful thinking ?

I've been waiting to see if the Vikes sign Antoine Winfield. I'm going to assume after tomorrow the Vikes are NOT signing him. I think it's a 2 game difference. Right now, I'm think the Vikes will go 9-7 without him, and 11-5 if they sign him.

I think Winfield would probably make a play or 2 that is the direct difference in a win, and then his presence helps out in several other games, one game where it's pretty much the difference between a win and a loss. So again, having him for the season, brings about 2 more wins.


Whoa ... all we gotta do then ... is get 7 or 8 more guys like 'Toine, and we never lose ... [:D]



Guest -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/3/2013 10:16:22 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: SoMnFan

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

I'm going to post my predictions for the season tomorrow night. It's great to see some are picking the Vikings to win the division and even the SB. I thought maybe the pre-season performance was getting people a little down. OTOH, are these serious predictions, is that what they really believe will happen, or just wishful thinking ?

I've been waiting to see if the Vikes sign Antoine Winfield. I'm going to assume after tomorrow the Vikes are NOT signing him. I think it's a 2 game difference. Right now, I'm think the Vikes will go 9-7 without him, and 11-5 if they sign him.

I think Winfield would probably make a play or 2 that is the direct difference in a win, and then his presence helps out in several other games, one game where it's pretty much the difference between a win and a loss. So again, having him for the season, brings about 2 more wins.


Whoa ... all we gotta do then ... is get 7 or 8 more guys like 'Toine, and we never lose ... [:D]


Remember the Vikings aren't trying to win because we didn't sign Urlacher, so all the Toine's in the world won't make up for that gaffe...



drviking -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/3/2013 10:34:45 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: kurt bilben

quote:

ORIGINAL: SoMnFan

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

I'm going to post my predictions for the season tomorrow night. It's great to see some are picking the Vikings to win the division and even the SB. I thought maybe the pre-season performance was getting people a little down. OTOH, are these serious predictions, is that what they really believe will happen, or just wishful thinking ?

I've been waiting to see if the Vikes sign Antoine Winfield. I'm going to assume after tomorrow the Vikes are NOT signing him. I think it's a 2 game difference. Right now, I'm think the Vikes will go 9-7 without him, and 11-5 if they sign him.

I think Winfield would probably make a play or 2 that is the direct difference in a win, and then his presence helps out in several other games, one game where it's pretty much the difference between a win and a loss. So again, having him for the season, brings about 2 more wins.


Whoa ... all we gotta do then ... is get 7 or 8 more guys like 'Toine, and we never lose ... [:D]


Remember the Vikings aren't trying to win because we didn't sign Urlacher, so all the Toine's in the world won't make up for that gaffe...


I thought they already forfeited the season when they didn't draft WRs with their first three picks, and missed the Publisher's Clearinghouse Swopesteaks



Guest -> RE: Predictions for Next Week (and maybe beyond) (9/3/2013 10:38:30 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: drviking

quote:

ORIGINAL: kurt bilben

quote:

ORIGINAL: SoMnFan

quote:

ORIGINAL: marty

I'm going to post my predictions for the season tomorrow night. It's great to see some are picking the Vikings to win the division and even the SB. I thought maybe the pre-season performance was getting people a little down. OTOH, are these serious predictions, is that what they really believe will happen, or just wishful thinking ?

I've been waiting to see if the Vikes sign Antoine Winfield. I'm going to assume after tomorrow the Vikes are NOT signing him. I think it's a 2 game difference. Right now, I'm think the Vikes will go 9-7 without him, and 11-5 if they sign him.

I think Winfield would probably make a play or 2 that is the direct difference in a win, and then his presence helps out in several other games, one game where it's pretty much the difference between a win and a loss. So again, having him for the season, brings about 2 more wins.


Whoa ... all we gotta do then ... is get 7 or 8 more guys like 'Toine, and we never lose ... [:D]


Remember the Vikings aren't trying to win because we didn't sign Urlacher, so all the Toine's in the world won't make up for that gaffe...


I thought they already forfeited the season when they didn't draft WRs with their first three picks, and missed the Publisher's Clearinghouse Swopesteaks


Illegal to forfeit two seasons in a row.

We already lost last season due to forfeit by selecting some guy named Kalil instead of some guy named Blackmon...



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