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twinsfan -> RE: Gopher Football (5/5/2017 10:48:16 AM)
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Mitch Leidner first-round draft projection still irks ESPN's McShay a year later
Around this time a year ago, ESPN’s Todd McShay put out his “way too early” mock draft for 2017 NFL first-round picks. Some of it worked out pretty well: 14 of his 32 selections one year out ended up being picked in the first round of the draft, which finally happened this past weekend.
But there were some significant misses as well — including one that drew some sideways glances from the local folks. McShay had Gophers quarterback Mitch Leidner going No. 25 overall to the Cowboys, writing that Leidner is “a late riser to keep an eye on, similar to Blake Bortles and Carson Wentz.”
McShay’s mock draft was mocked countless times by college football fans and probably put undue pressure on Leidner in his senior year with the Gophers. A year later, I had a chance to ask McShay about it — and the notion of trying to project draft picks a year in advance.
As it turns out, he might have liked his way-too-early mock draft even less than you did.
“That’s why it’s named the way-too-early mock draft,” McShay said. “To be completely transparent, it’s the least enjoyable article I write all year but unfortunately it does the most traffic and has the most clicks of anything we do all year. It’s a necessary evil, unfortunately.”
Those clicks depend on getting the mock draft for the following year out quickly while there is still buzz about the previous draft. But that doesn’t allow enough time for things like research and full evaluation by the time the way-too-early mock comes out.
“The hard part is quite honestly I haven’t watched any tape on most of these guys. … I have to rely on what I’ve seen when I’m watching other prospects during the college football season,” McShay said. “Last year specifically with Leidner, he had some flashing moments (the previous season), has the size and has some mobility. And I had conversations with people who had been around him and spoke of the work ethic and how much he loves the game. There were a lot of positives and thoughts he could be an ascending player. Now, three weeks later when I finally sat down and watched tape of Mitch Leidner, I wound up giving him a fifth-round grade.”
Leidner had a decent senior season but hardly a breakout year and went undrafted. He had tryout offers from several teams and went with an offer from the Ravens.
“It’s certainly a long shot, but I still think there’s something there,” McShay said of Leidner. “Hopefully he’s able to get into the right situation and be given the opportunity to truly compete for a reserve job.”
By the time McShay did his final mock draft, by the way, he hit on 28 of the 32 first-round picks. At least McShay doesn’t have to do another way-too-early mock draft and subject himself to more ridicule, right?
Oh, wait. He does.
“It’ll be out on Thursday, again unfortunately,” McShay said. “I’m contractually obligated. I’ll probably shy away from projecting any quarterbacks I’m not certain about. I’ve seen enough of Sam Darnold (USC) and Josh Allen (Wyoming) to know they belong. (Josh) Rosen from UCLA has the physical ability. Those will probably be the only three quarterbacks you see appear on the 2018 mock draft that comes out Thursday.”
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